※ 引述《Iknow ( )》之铭言： : "Fear the boom and bust" : http://econstories.tv/home.html : 这是George Mason University的教授Russell Roberts与另一位作者的作品， : 用rap来说明凯因斯学派及奥地利学派的理论XD : MV也相当恶搞... 以下是我自己翻译的 如果有错，还请指教 我放在网志上 http://www.wretch.cc/blog/Choushikan/18548311 不喜欢看网志的下面有附歌词 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我们已经来来回回争论一世纪 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凯因斯] 我要控制市场 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要让他们自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 这是景气急速扩张跟破产的循环，你是有有好理由去害怕他们 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]问题是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凯因斯]不~那是动物本能 [Keynes Sings:] John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro 约翰 M 凯因斯，写了现代总体经济书 The man you need when the economy’s off track, [whoa] 他是一个当经济脱轨时你需要的人 Depression, recession now your question’s in session 萧条、衰退，在现在这时是你的问题 Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson 挑个位子坐，我将简单地给你上一堂课 BOOM, 1929 the big crash 磅!1929年的大冲击 We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash 我们当时并没有从经济谷底里反弹 Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages 持续的失业、是因为僵固的薪资 Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous! 等待它自己复原? 认真的吗? 这真是个罪过! I had a real plan any fool can understand 我有个实际的计画，任何傻瓜都能理解的 The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand! 一个忠告，实际的抬高总合需求 C, I, G, all together gets to Y C、I、G， 这些加在一起就会得到Y Make sure the total’s growing, watch the economy fly 只要确立了加起来会成长，就等着看经济起飞吧! We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我们已经来来回回争论一世纪 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凯因斯] 我要控制市场 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要让他们自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 这是景气急速扩张跟破产的循环，你是有有好理由去害怕他们 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]问题是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凯因斯]不~那是动物本能 You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching 你看，这些都是关於花费，听听看收银机的声音吧 Circular flow, the dough is everything 金钱循环流程，钱就是任何一切 So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason 所以如果流量变小，且先不管原因 We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season 我们需要更多的政府支出，这就是所谓的刺激景气 So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head 所以不要再管什麽存钱，把他从你脑袋给丢掉 Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead 如同我说的，在长期，我们都死了 Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift 存钱是具毁灭性的，这就是所谓的储蓄的诡论 Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift… 不要再把钱放在你口袋 because… 因为... Business is driven by the animal spirits 商业活动本来就是用动物本能在操控 The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its 牛市或熊市，这是怕他们的原因 Effects on capital investment, income and growth 它影响资本投资，所得跟经济成长 That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both… 这就是为什麽应该要用刺激去扩大缺口 The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct 方式是使用货币政策与财政政策，他们是一样的正确 Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect 政府操作，增加支出，战争也是有同样效果 Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth 甚至是打破窗户，也可以帮助玻璃业者增加财富 The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health 它的乘数效果会带领整个经济体走向健康 And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks 那如果中央银行持续使用低利率政策 A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks! 就会造成流动性陷阱，新的钱会卡在银行里 Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for 然而我们已经找到，让赤字可以被治癒的方法 Let the spending soar, now that you know the score 就是让花费更多，现在你已经知道它的效果 My General Theory’s made quite an impression 我的一般理论有着相当的影响 [a revolution] I transformed the econ profession [革命性的] 我改变了经济的专业 You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow 你知道我，谦虚地，向大家鞠躬 Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now 来，大声说，我们现在都是凯因斯学派 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我们已经来来回回争论一世纪 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凯因斯] 我要控制市场 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要让他们自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 这是景气急速扩张跟破产的循环，你是有有好理由去害怕他们 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]问题是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凯因斯]不~那是动物本能 Hayek sings: I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes 该我来讲讲，就如同我的朋友凯因斯 His theory conceals the mechanics of change, 他的理论隐匿了一些技术性的改变 That simple equation, too much aggregation 那些简单的方程式，太多的总合 Ignores human action and motivation 而忽略了人们的行为与动机 And yet it continues as a justification 现在如同法庭辩护一样持续着 For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations 在政客们机械式的纾困之下 You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch 提供了一个不劳而获的机会 Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch 这只会留给我们一大堆的债务 If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog 如果我们生活在高水准却在低信用下 Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog 就别想要在狗的毛上找什麽解药 Real savings come first if you want to invest 如果你想要投资，首先先做实质的储蓄 The market coordinates time with interest 市场下会回报你同等的利息 Your focus on spending is pushing on thread 如果你只专注在花费上，那将会走向毁灭之路 In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead 在长期下，如同我朋友说的，你的理论也早已死了 So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective 如果这里讲的有点难听，我在这里说抱歉，各位夥伴 Prepared to get schooled in my Austrian perspective 准备来场我的奥地利学派的学术洗礼吧 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我们已经来来回回争论一世纪 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凯因斯] 我要控制市场 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要让他们自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 这是景气急速扩张跟破产的循环，你是有有好理由去害怕他们 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]问题是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凯因斯]不~那是动物本能 The place you should study isn’t the bust 我们需要学习的并不是破产 It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust 而是景气急速扩张，你应该要更感到小心翼翼，这是个重点 Of my theory, the capital structure is key. 在我的理论哩，资本结构是个关键 Malinvestments wreck the economy 不当的投资是会破坏整个经济体 The boom gets started with an expansion of credit 整个景气急速扩张会开启一个扩张性的信贷 The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it? 联准会会降低利率，那你会做什麽呢? That new money is confused for real loanable funds 新的货币投入是因为被迷惑於实质可贷资金 But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones 然而这只是受到通膨的操控 Who invest in new projects like housing construction 投资就有点像是一个房屋的建构 The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction 景气急速扩张就像是一种植物，未来会让房屋毁灭的种子 The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too 此时，不再实际的储蓄，消费也随之提高 And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few 於是从总总迹象可以窥见，那实在是太少了 So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise 所以，当利息开始上升时，就是景气蓬勃转到破产的时刻 With the costs of production, price signals were lies 在产出成本、价格信号之时 The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact 景气整个就狂欢了起来 Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack. 现在当资本开始贬值时，瞬间的景气就沉默了 Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five 在此时，2005年 Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive 不好的投资蓬勃发展，看样子是十分的兴盛 You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press 你一定要小心的投资，不要像印刷机一样疯狂投资 Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed 否则，经济衰退一定会来临，一个整体经济的衰退 Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse 你们所谓的"刺激"，会让事情变得更糟糕 It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed 那只会造成更多邪恶的动机 And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap 而且信用破产，并不代表是所谓的流动性陷阱 Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap. 只是个糟糕的银行机制。 我说完了，到此结束吧! We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我们已经来来回回争论一世纪 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凯因斯] 我要控制市场 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要让他们自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 这是景气急速扩张跟破产的循环，你是有有好理由去害怕他们 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]问题是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凯因斯]不~那是动物本能 “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” John Maynard Keynes The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” F A Hayek The Fatal Conceit --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.47.100.183 ※ sampsonhugh:转录至看板 Examination 02/02 21:45