中国时报在引用 The Economist 的 Burger-thy-neighbour policies 一文时, 没有完整的引述 The Economist 的说法. 各位网友可以在下面的连结看到原文: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13059709 这篇文章一开始指出两点, 其中一点是中国时报有提到的. 我们都知道中国的确 在操纵人民币汇率, 但重点不在中国是否有操纵, 而是人民币是否有低估的情形: Of course China manipulates its exchange rate—in the sense that the level of the yuan is not set by the market, but influenced by foreign-exchange intervention. The real issue is whether Beijing is deliberately keeping the yuan cheap to give exporters an unfair advantage. 但中国时报并未提到的, 我认为是这篇文章的重点. 亦即, 人民币是否低估, 以及 低估的程度如何, 并不是如同一般认为的那麽单纯: CHINA has been accused of “manipulating” its currency by Tim Geithner, America’s new treasury secretary, and this week Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the IMF, said that it was “common knowledge” that the yuan was undervalued. You would assume that such strong claims were backed by solid proof, but the evidence is, in fact, mixed. The Economist 指出几点情形, 第一点是中国时报有引述的, 人民币对美元虽然升值 幅度有限, 但对其他各主要货币则是大幅升值: Since July the yuan has gained 10% in trade-weighted terms. It is up 23% against the euro, and 30% or more against the currencies of many other emerging economies. 然而, 中国时报却并未完全引述接下来的内容. The Economist 提到了几点关於人民币 可能低估的论点: Those who argue that the yuan is still too cheap point to three factors: China’s foreign-exchange reserves have surged; it has a huge current-account surplus; and prices are much cheaper in China than in America. 接下来, The Economist 一个一个说明, 为什麽这几个论点不够充份. 其中, 我认为 比较有趣的是第三点, The Economist 透过他们引以为傲的 Big Mac Index, 认为若 仅看价格本身, 中国的物价是比美国便宜很多; 但若考虑两国所得的差距, 那麽中国 的物价较低并未不合理: The Economist’s Big Mac index offers a crude estimate of how far exchange rates are from PPP. Our January update found that a Big Mac cost 48% less in China than in America, which might suggest that the yuan is 48% undervalued against the dollar... ...Using a simple model, which adjusts the Big Mac index for differences in countries’ GDP per head and relative labour costs, gives the result that the yuan is now less than 5% undervalued. 最後, The Economist 引述 Cheung, Chinn and Fujii 的研究. CCF 指出, 2006 年 人民币低估的幅度, 可能不是一般认为的 40%, 而是仅有 10%; 而在今天, 这 10% 可能已经反应在 07, 08 年人民币的升值中了: A new study* by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fujii arrives at a similar result using World Bank price data across the whole economy. Previous assessments of such data had found that the yuan was around 40% undervalued. But the latest price surveys have raised the estimated price level in China (and so reduced GDP per head measured at PPP). The authors conclude that the yuan was 10% undervalued against the dollar in 2006, which means that it might now be close to parity. *“China’s current account and exchange rate”. NBER working paper 14673. * * * 最後补充一点, 关於 The Economist 的文章, 如果网友有什麽疑问, 又正好是台大经济系的学生的话, 其实去问陈旭昇老师大概是最好的选择. 首先, 他是专家, 很多经济系学生都以为他是统计学和经济计量的专家, 殊不知国际金融才是他真正的强项 (其实他好像没有弱项吧!); 其次, 他和 Chinn 很熟 :P, 全台湾最适合说明 CCF 那篇在做什麽的, 大概就是他了吧! -- 人各任其能，竭其力，以得所欲．故物贱之徵贵，贵之徵贱， 各劝其业，乐其事，若水之趋下，日夜无休时， 不召而自来，不求而民出之．岂非道之所符，而自然之验邪？ --

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