※ 引述《balanceCIH (()()())》之铭言： : http://tinyurl.com/963h7m : 亚太天灾威胁 恐百万人伤亡 : 自由时报 2008/12/27 : 编译张沛元／综合雪梨二十六日外电报导 : 澳洲一份科学报告指出，亚太地区正面临天灾侵袭，导致重大伤亡的时代；都市化、气候 : 变迁与食物短缺使得自然灾害的危害加剧，恐一次就夺走上百万条人命，其中又以印尼、 : 菲律宾与中国的风险最高。 : 中、菲、印尼 风险最高 : 雪梨晨驱报二十六日报导，官方机构「地质科学澳洲」的一份科学报告发现，地震与海啸 : 等天灾的冲击，恐将随着人口增加与气候变迁而加剧；该报告已促使澳洲总理陆克文与印 : 尼总统尤德约诺成立联合灾难训练与研究中心。 : 都会超级强震 夺命百万 : : 该报指出，澳洲科学家分析亚太地区发生地震、热带风暴、海啸与火山爆发的可能性，并 : 且估计可能的死伤与受灾人数；结果发现，位於喜马拉雅造山带、中国、印尼与菲律宾的 : 大都会，最可能遭到死亡人数超过一百万人的地震侵袭；印尼平均每十年、菲律宾每数十 : 年可能发生严重影响数十万人的火山爆发。至於孟加拉等人口爆炸的低地国家，则恐遭海 : 啸、洪水与热带风暴蹂躏。 : 这份分析过去四百年来的天灾数据，藉此预测未来天灾可能性的报告指出，人口增加、气 : 候变迁与食物短缺，都会导致天灾灾情更为恶化。这份研究说，夺走超过一万人性命的天 : 灾，有可能每十年间就发生数次，此外也可能发生影响所及超过一百万人的大规模天灾。 : 人口增加 伤亡风险增加 : 「地质科学澳洲」的科学家辛普森解释说，人口增加是亚太地区容易遭天灾蹂躏的主因， : 因为人口一多，民众就开始定居於以前没住过的地方，像是容易发生土石流的陡坡地，或 : 每几年就淹水的海滨或河滨。 原始新闻连结: Disasters warning for Asia-Pacific Mark Davis Political Correspondent December 26, 2008 http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/disasters-warning-for-asiapacific/2008/12/25/1229998661989.html AUSTRALIA'S neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region face an era of "mega-disasters" affecting hundreds of thousands of people as urbanisation, climate change and food shortages amplify the impact of natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and cyclones in coming years, scientific research has shown. The research - which has prompted the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, and the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to establish a joint disaster training and research centre - identifies Indonesia, the Philippines and China as the countries most likely to experience large-scale disasters. Scientists at Geosience Australia analysed the incidence of hazards such as earthquakes, cyclones, tsunamis and volcanoes throughout the region and then estimated the numbers of people who would be killed or injured or lose their homes or essential services. This risk assessment found that so-called mega-cities in the Himalayan belt, China, Indonesia and the Philippines were prime candidates for earthquakes that could cause more than a million deaths. Hundreds of thousands could be seriously affected by volcanoes erupting on average once a decade in Indonesia and once every few decades in the Philippines. Tsunamis, floods and cyclones affecting tens of millions of people were likely in low-lying "mega-deltas" like Bangladesh which were experiencing population explosions and were vulnerable to climate change. And many Pacific island nations had a high potential for catastrophes that could affect large proportions of their populations and overwhelm local government response and recovery efforts. The Geoscience Australia risk assessment fed into a wider study by AusAID and other Australian and Indonesian government agencies which concluded that the severity of humanitarian crises in the region was increasing due to the interaction of climate change, urbanisation, poor land use planning and tension about access to resources. The study, handed to Mr Rudd and Dr Yudhoyono for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Peru last month, said there were likely to be several disasters killing more than 10,000 people each decade and there was the potential for catastrophes affecting more than 1 million people. Alanna Simpson, a scientist at Geoscience Australia, said the risk assessments used data for the Asia-Pacific from the past 400 years and modelling to predict the frequency of natural hazards. "Whilst the incidence of natural hazards themselves - earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and the like - hasn't really changed, the sheer number of people living in the Asia-Pacific region means any earthquake has the potential to affect hundreds of thousands, if not millions," Dr Simpson said. "If we worked out that parts of Alaska, for instance, are likely to have a volcanic eruption every 100 years, the impact of those events would be pretty low because there is no one living in those parts of Alaska, whereas the same frequency in Java will have a huge impact." Dr Simpson said population growth was the main reason the Asia-Pacific was highly vulnerable. "As populations grow, people are beginning to settle on areas they wouldn't have historically - steep slopes that might be vulnerable to landslides or coastal areas near large river mouths which are likely to flood every couple of years." Mr Rudd and Dr Yudhoyono agreed during the APEC summit to spend $67 million to set up a disaster reduction facility in Jakarta. The facility, expected to be operating by April, will aim to reduce the impact of natural hazards by training emergency personnel and carrying out research on risks and threats. Dr Simpson said the feasibility study on the facility carried out for Mr Rudd and Dr Yudhoyono had concluded that there was a need for a stronger focus on disaster mitigation. "One of the things that quickly became apparent was that there were a lot of mechanisms for disaster response but disaster risk reduction and mitigation was an area where there had not been such a big drive," she said. "One of the better ways you can mitigate is by understanding natural hazards. If you know an area has a high earthquake potential then you make sure you enforce building codes, and that can save a lot of lives." She said Geoscience Australia would probably develop scenarios for different parts of the region. These would be used for training emergency services. -- Wetterkurzschlüssel _ WKS --

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