1. Earthquake prediction is pivotal both for reduction of the damage from earthquakes and for fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics. That twofold goal, usual for prediction research, brings up the key questions considered here: 对於减少地震伤害以及了解岩石圈内的动力学基础，地震预测扮演着重要的枢纽。 通常针对预测的研究，考虑以下主要问题将会是往後更深远的目标； (a) What predictions are already possible? (b) How can damage from earthquakes be reduced on the basis of such predictions, given their limited accuracy? (c) What fundamental knowledge has been gained in earthquake prediction research? Thecommon underlying question is, what comes next? (a) 哪些预测是有可能的? (b) 如何从这些基本的预测来减少地震伤害，以及给定它们最终的准确性? (c) 在地震预测的研究之中，哪些基础学识已被使用? 常见的问题是，接下来会发生什 麽? 2. This problem is of urgent practical importance because earthquakes pose a rapidly growing threat to survival and sustainable development of our civilization. This is due to the well-known interrelated developments: proliferation of radioactive waste disposals, high dams, nuclear power plants, lifelines, and other objects whose damage poses an unacceptable risk; self-destruction of megacities; destabilization of the environment; and growing socio-economic volatility of the global village. For all of these reasons, seismic risk has escalated also in numerous regions of low seismicity. Today, a single earthquake may take up to a million lives, cause material damage up to $1.0E+12, raze a megacity, trigger a global economic depression, render a large territory uninhabitable, and destabilize the military balance in a region. 这问题有着急需实行的重要性，因为地震对於我们的文明与生命之持续发展扮演着快速 增长的一个威胁。这是起因於以下众所周知的相互发展；放射性废料处置时的扩散， 高水坝的兴建，核能电厂，lifeline(???)，以及其他损害至让人不被接受的风险； 百万人口城市的自毁；环境的不稳定；以及全世界农村社会经济的泡沫化。由於这些因素 的种种，地震风险已经也在很多小区域的震害之中节节攀升。 今日，一个单一地震可能 夺走百万人以上的生命，导致物资损失高达1200亿美元(应该是美元拉)，夷平一座百万人 口以上的城市，引发全球经济的崩盘，导致大片土地变的不适合居住，以及某些区域军事 力量平衡的不稳定。 Earthquake prediction is necessary to undertake disaster preparedness measures, reducing the damage from the earthquakes. This requires that the accuracy of prediction be known, but, contrary to common belief, a timely prediction of low accuracy may be very useful. 地震预测必须着手於灾害先前的准备测量，减少地震的损失，这需要知道预测的准确性， 但是，相对於一般人的认知，一个低准确性的及时性预测可能非常有用(不懂这句话)。 3. Earthquake prediction is necessary also for fundamental understanding of the dynamics of the lithosphere, particularly in the timescales of 100 years and less. So far, this problem is in the same stage as the theory of gravity was between T. Brahe and J. Kepler: the study of heuristic regularities (启发原则) that are necessary to develop a fundamental theory. 地震预测必须针对岩石圈动力学的基础认知，尤其是在100年以内的时间等级。 到目前为止，这个问题仍旧站在不拉许与克普勒(T. Brahe and J. Kepler)重力理论 的台面上；必须从启发性原则的学习来发展出一套基础理论。 (先翻到这里...想睡了...有翻错的地方请指正) -- ㄟ~~ 请不要这样看我-.- 我不做黑的-_- --

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