作者TKB5566 (台湾知识库5566)
看板DummyHistory
标题[假设] 李牧没被赵王赐死,继续领导赵军抗秦
时间Tue Nov 1 18:46:37 2022
李牧对秦军的战绩,是大家有目共睹的:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin%27s_wars_of_unification
In 233 BC, Huan Yi's army crossed Mount Taihang and conquered the Zhao
territories of Chili (赤丽) and Yi'an (宜安), both located southeast of
present-day Shijiazhuang, Hebei.
the Qin army under Huan Yi engaged the Zhao army commanded by General Li Mu
at the Battle of Fei in which the Qin sustained a massive defeat and nearly
lost all their forces.
In 232 BC, the Qin forces split into two groups to attack Fanwu (番吾;
present-day Lingshou County, Hebei) and Langmeng (狼孟; present-day Yangqu
County, Shanxi),
but were defeated again by the Zhao army led by Li Mu.
李牧对秦军二战二胜,而
肥之战的经过如下:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fei_(233_BCE)
Li Mu felt that the Qin army's morale was high after its earlier victories,
so it would be unwise for Zhao to attack Qin then.
He ordered his troops to
strengthen their fortifications and defences while waiting for an opportunity
to launch an counteroffensive.
As the bulk of the Qin army had left to attack Fei, the Qin camp was poorly
defended so
Li Mu seized the opportunity to order his troops to launch an
offensive on the Qin camp. The Zhao forces scored a major victory in the
ensuing battle and captured several prisoners-of-war and supplies.
As
Li Mu predicted that Huan Yi would retreat from Fei to save the camp,
he ordered his men to lay an ambush on Huan Yi's retreat route. Huan Yi's
retreating troops fell into the ambush.
Qin sustained over 100,000 casualties in the battle
到了秦灭赵之战,李牧一样打得有声有色:
In 229 BC, Qin took advantage of the situation to launch a pincer attack
from the north and south on Handan, the Zhao capital.
On the Zhao side,
Li Mu and Sima Shang (司马尚) were put in command of the Zhao army.
Li Mu ordered his troops to build defensive structures and avoid direct
confrontation with the enemy. The Qin forces were unable to advance further
and both sides reached a stalemate.
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然後李牧就被赵王赐死了。那如果李牧没被赵王赐死,继续领导赵军抗秦,李牧继续
使用其擅长的战术,用坚强防守消耗敌军、诱敌深入後集中兵力进行反击与包抄。
不计较一城一地得失。这样的话,虽然在秦军重压下,邯郸应该还是会沦陷,
但史实上赵国公子逃往北方建立代国,联合燕军继续抗秦。直到西元前222年才灭亡。
所以其实即使邯郸沦陷了,赵军还是可以以赵国剩余领土与燕国领土作为纵深,
继续与秦军周旋。
所以如赵王不杀李牧,且仿照赵国公子的作法,迁都北方,军事组织上让赵军联合燕军。
然後李牧同时指挥赵军与燕军,并结合燕国资源与赵国胡服骑射的体制,训练动员燕军。
让燕国能增生更多兵力,而非史实上,仅仅只有10万人:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%A6%E6%BB%85%E7%87%95%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%B0
赵国是否还有转圜余地??还是说即使燕国也跟赵国一样胡服骑射大量动员,国力体量上
还是差秦国太多,所以即使赵王不杀李牧并采取这个战略,赵国一样要灭亡??
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另外就是,当邯郸被秦军包围时,赵王怎麽没有像三十年前白起率秦军包围邯郸时那样,
积极遣使各国支援??当年白起攻邯郸,就是因各国援军及时赶到而失败。
那三十年後秦军又包围邯郸了,这次怎麽就没有各国援军支援赵国??
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1F:推 hgt: 因为那时韩国已经灭亡,魏国只剩下一个县大小,齐国自保 11/01 19:05
2F:→ hgt: 楚国好像也是宫廷政争,实力也大不如前,所以多国联军是组不 11/01 19:05
3F:→ hgt: 起来。何况当年也是因为有信陵君才组起来,当时如果没有信陵 11/01 19:06
4F:→ hgt: 一样组不起来。 11/01 19:06
所以魏跟齐是不用指望了,只剩燕跟楚。如果赵国想向楚国遣使求援,使者势必得经过
魏、齐这两个秦国盟友的地面,这样赵联合楚的情报就可能被泄漏给秦国。
故风险太大。所以我想赵国唯一可行的做法就是联合燕国了。
若赵燕联合并采用胡服骑射、举国动员体制,其加总体量就算还是不如秦军,
至少应该也不会输给楚军。这样秦军就相当於同时面对两个楚国南北夹击,
这样的话秦军要统一天下,还是未定之天。
※ 编辑: TKB5566 (1.167.40.0 台湾), 11/01/2022 19:16:19
5F:推 hesho: 楚国一直都内斗内行,夹击就别想了 11/01 19:18
6F:推 lolen: 是可以再多撑几年,但是经济体量和人力以及将领充沛库就摆 11/01 21:07
7F:→ lolen: 在那边,终究还是被优秀的秦军将领海淹过去 11/01 21:08
8F:推 bestteam: 从李牧被杀前赵国力的记载 很明显李牧就是皮洛士式胜利 11/01 21:10
9F:→ bestteam: 逃去代地资源更少 最终也是撑不住的 11/01 21:10
10F:→ skytank: 国土面积差太多+黄土高原资源已经耗竭注定秦国会胜利 11/01 21:50
11F:→ skytank: 秦国邯郸之战到灭六国短短30年就举国大军就补回来了 11/01 21:51
12F:→ skytank: 秦国征战也是几十万又几十万兵在烧,问题是秦国兵烧不完 11/01 21:53
13F:→ skytank: 赵国一个长平就去掉了半条命,几十年都没补回来 11/01 21:54
14F:→ skytank: 赵国除非找到新大陆,然後全力种田龟兵才能和秦国一战 11/01 21:56
15F:推 lifehunter: 没救了 国家制度 整体国力的差距就在那里 11/02 08:53
所以即使赵燕联合,两国领导共同组成一个总指挥部,然後两国军队整合成一支联军,
实施胡服骑射、大量动员,统一由李牧指挥。是说燕国北方也有游牧民族,所以应当也
具有实施胡服骑射的条件。且燕军也曾在乐毅领导下,有过攻占齐国七十座城池的战绩。
所以燕军其实只要有适当的训练与领导的话,战力并不弱。
这样重新组织出一支虽不如秦军规模,但至少有楚军规模的部队。
北方有赵燕联合、南方有楚国。如果秦军攻楚国,李牧率领的赵燕联军就袭击秦军後方,
而秦军回头打赵燕联军,项燕率领的楚军就反过来偷袭秦军後方。让秦军疲於奔命。
这样的战略
类似国共内战,东北战场的共军那样,国军攻击南满共军,北满共军就出击国军,
国军回过头来打北满,南满共军就回头袭击国军,这样子去消耗东北国军。
後来东北共军确实也歼灭了东北国军。
所以这种战略
其实共军也示范过了,但要求战国时期的国家做到这种程度,难度还是太高?
※ 编辑: TKB5566 (111.241.182.170 台湾), 11/03/2022 14:28:46
※ TKB5566:转录至看板 Warfare 11/03 14:29
16F:推 bestteam: 乐毅那时齐国主力被五国联军干翻 首都和国王都没了 11/03 21:23