作者madboy (欢乐牛棚在躲人)
看板Dodgers
标题Re: [交易] Dodgers Acquire Hanley Ramirez & Randy
时间Wed Jul 25 23:41:16 2012
实在懒得贴出来
不过因为一堆人啥都不看也无法自行思考就说没有赔
就简单写一下...
躲人出
Eo 只列出pre-arb, 因Eo目前只是5th SP, 不见得值得给他arb
2012 值 0.5WAR (剩1/3球季)
2013 1.5WAR
2014 1.5WAR
2012 $WAR参数5.5
2013 6
2014 6.5
Eo 值 0.5 * 5.5 + 1.5 * 6 + 1.5 * 6.5 = 21.5M
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RHRP Scott McGough
Sickels 2012 Grade C (others), 22岁
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/5/2612837/
los-angeles-dodgers-top-20-prospects-for-2012
查表
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation
值2.1M
不过那是2009~2010左右的物价
当时$WAR参数约在4.5
换算现在$WAR参数5.5
差不多应值2.5M
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=============================================
马大鱼出
LHRP Randy Choate
fangraphs ZiPS (R)剩下球击成绩3.35FIP 14IP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=813&position=P
得省下 (3.35 - 4.5)*14/9 = 1.79分
就算0.2WAR好了
今年Choate剩下薪水 1.5M/3 (剩1/3球季) = 0.5M
Choate FA前值 1.1M - 0.5M = 0.6M
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cancer Hanley Ramirez
bb-ref
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml
fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS
bb-ref的rWAR近两年只给他0WAR & 0.4WAR
fangraphs的fWAR也只给1.3WAR & 1.4WAR
考量他去年受伤
未来全年拿个2WAR不为过吧
2012 0.7WAR (剩1/3球季)
2013 2WAR
2014 2WAR
2012 $WAR参数5.5
2013 6
2014 6.5
Hanley 值 0.7 * 5.5 + 2 * 6 + 2 * 6.5 = 28.85M
不过他剩下薪水
2012 15M/3 (剩1/3球季) = 5M
2013 15.5M
2014 16M
共 36.5M
故Hanley实值 28.85M - 36.5M = -7.65M
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summary
=============================================
=============================================
躲人出
Eo 21.5M
Grade C RHRP Scott McGough 2.5M
24M
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马大鱼出
LHRP Randy Choate 0.6M
Hanley -7.65M
-7.05M
=============================================
you do the math
thanks
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◆ From: 173.254.219.203
1F：推 zehow:老板现在就是不怕花钱阿 换来的2个人对目前球队的帮助比较 07/25 23:45
2F：推 Rioss:你有当GM的潜力:p 07/25 23:45
3F：→ zehow:大 那就够了~ 07/25 23:45
5F：→ madboy:说过...没电脑算线性函数...就将究一点吧 07/25 23:48
6F：推 lunway79:m大要不要去应徵一下道奇GM?说不定可以干掉颗颗提 07/25 23:49
7F：推 Rioss:呵~Billy Beane应该把你找当助理(误) 07/25 23:49
8F：→ madboy:好啦...说一声我藏了一手...有发现请ask 07/25 23:50
9F：→ madboy:(给个提示这手对躲人有利) 07/25 23:51
10F：推 Sheffield3:@lunway79 说不定可以干掉笨gm, 你确定这是称赞..XDD？ 07/26 00:11
11F：→ madboy:BTW, 还有一个问题是"Two Trips"不晓得罩不罩的住这cancer 07/26 00:36
12F：推 lunway79:别曲解我的意思>"<，不过对於此交易我还是保持观望态度~ 07/26 00:39
13F：→ madboy:don't mind...我想Sheff3只是在开玩笑... 07/26 23:03