http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/3/20/306903/not-a-rookie-matt-kemp 忘记附来源了...科科... Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp Matt Kemp was drafted in the sixth round by the Dodgers in 2003, out of high school in Midwest City, Oklahoma. He was considered very toolsy and athletic, but rather raw, best-known as a basketball player in high school. He hit .270/.298/.346 in 42 games for the Gulf Coast League Dodgers after signing. I didn’t give put him in the 2004 book, but a similar player nowadays would get a Grade C “with higher potential” rating. His strike zone judgment was quite poor in the early going. 是个相当有天份的球员...一开始好球带控制不佳。 Plate discipline remained a problem in 2004 but it wasn’t enough to prevent him from hitting .288/.330/.499 with 17 homers in 111 games for Columbus in the Sally League. He hit .351 in 11 games for Vero Beach late in the season. He drew 28 walks against 112 strikeouts on the year, but his tools were obvious. I gave him a Grade C+ in the book, impressed with his production but noting that while his upside was great, “the same can be said for innumerable tools burnouts like Reggie Abercrombie.” I advised the Dodgers to give him as much time at Vero Beach in 2005 as possible. 2004年时好球带控制仍不好，但他仍交出夸张的好成绩，好坏球比极烂， 但掩盖不了他优秀的先份。 I don’t know if they read my book or not but that’s exactly what they did in ’05, leaving him in the Florida State League all year. He responded with a .306/.349/.569 mark, with 27 homers and 23 steals. I remained concerned enough with his plate discipline to give him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book. In retrospect I should definitely have given him at least a Grade B. 2005年重复了一个A+球季，交出更夸张的长打和盗垒成绩， 但选球仍差... Kemp began 2006 in Double-A, hitting .327/.399/.528 in 48 games. He split the rest of the year between Triple-A and the majors, dominating Vegas to a .363/.423/.555 tune but struggling with the strike zone in the Show. He got into 52 major league games, hitting .253/.289/.448 and losing his rookie eligibility. Last year he played 98 games for the Dodgers, hitting .324/.344/.496. He has now played 150 major league games, hitting .312/.344/.496 with 17 homers, 25 walks, and 119 strikeouts in 446 at-bats. 2006年分别在AA、AAA和大联盟度过，因选球不佳在大联盟被惨电， 接着就是近年在大联盟的好表现... Plate discipline is still an issue for him, but Kemp is one of those guys who has such tremendous bat speed that it hasn’t hurt him much, even in the majors. He doesn’t have to become a walk machine, of course, and he did reduce his strikeout rate last year, a very good sign. My guess is that major league pitchers will make some adjustments in their approach and we will see his batting average drop, but we’re still talking about a guy who should hit .280-.290 with 25/20 production. At age 23 he has plenty of time to improve beyond that. 好球带的控管仍是一大问题，但Kemp以超人的挥棒速度弥补， 他不会是个保送机器，但好现象是去年他成功减低了三振数， 大联盟的投手可能会改变对他的投球策略而让他的打率下降， 但他仍有爆发力，且仅23岁还有成长空间。 Short-term projections Shandler: .290/.331/.466 James: .322/.365/.508 ZIPS: .303/.348/.483 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .298/.351/.509 Me: .287/.337/.497 I’m one of the “pessimists” and I love the guy.. I just think he needs a year to consolidate. Sickels说他的评价已经算是较悲观的了... Longer-term, if Kemp develops along a normal curve he’s got a great shot at being an excellent player. Positive PECOTA comps include Derek Bell, Chili Davis, Andre Dawson, Sammy Sosa, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, and Ruben Sierra. Cautionary notes are sounded by the presence of Todd Hollandsworth, Pedro Munoz, and Ruben Mateo on the list. Hollandsworth and Munoz were useful role players, and only the injury-busted Mateo is a big red flag. 长期来看一堆好话... Kemp still makes mistakes of inexperience with baserunning and fielding, and his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. I think that’s nuts. This guy has one of the brightest futures in baseball. It would not surprise me to see him emerge as an MVP candidate as soon as 2009. 仍会犯些低级守备和跑垒失误。名字直出现在兜售名单里(是个白痴行为)。 有光明未来... --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.195.188.224 ※ 编辑: madboy 来自: 123.195.188.224 (03/21 17:18)