原文出处：http://tinyurl.com/qcpwtsq Brain Game是专门用数据分析网球的网站，这篇分析我觉得满有趣的就顺便翻译给大家。 Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships. Novak Djokovic dominated two key patterns of play that ultimately helped him win Wimbledon for the second time by the smallest of margins. Djokovic在两项数据中的绝对占优最终让他得以些微的差距赢得第二座温网冠军。 Djokovic defeated Roger Federer 6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4 in an epic final that was almost inseparable on the scoreboard and on the statistical sheets except for the key defensive areas of backhands and second serves. Djokovic在史诗般的决赛中以6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4击败了Federer。除了反 拍与二发外，其他的统计数据都如计分板上的比分一样十分接近。 While Federer dominated the match with winners (75 to 68) and almost won the final with spectacular offense, it was ultimately the Serb’s defensive skills that weighed heavily in overcoming adversity to triumph at SW19. Federer在致胜球上领先（75个对上68个），靠着优异的进攻能力几乎赢下了比赛。但最 终，Djokovic的防守技巧是他得以逆转夺冠的重要因素之一。 Djokovic’s thrilling victory came in large part by saving a break point at 3-3, 30/40 in the fifth set. He worked Federer’s backhand, and the slice passing shot ended up in the net. Dodging that bullet - the only break point Djokovic faced in the fifth - was as important as any of the 186 points the 27 year old won in the final. 在第五盘3-3平手时救下破发点对Djokovic这场激励人心的胜利来说至关重要。他持续攻击 Federer的反拍，并在上网时用了一记切球穿越结束了这分。化解第五盘唯一的破发点跟 Djokovic在决赛中赢下的186分一样重要。（啊就一分一分得啊） Backhand Battle Djokovic’s main edge was the ability to control the back of the court with a backhand far superior to Federer's. Djokovic hit 18 backhand winners to Federer’s four which was a considerable differential considering Djokovic hit just five more forehand winners (24 to 19) for the match. It was a way to create offense, dictate the direction and flow of the rally and also provide incredible defence, particularly with raking passing shots down the line. 反拍之争 Djokovic主要的优势在於使用比Federer优异的反拍控制底线。Djokovic击出了18记的反拍 致胜球，Federer只有四记。正拍致胜球方面双方差距较小，Djokovic以24个领先Federer 的19个。这是Djokovic创造进攻机会、打出方向角度并控制击球节奏的方式，同时也提供 了不可思议的防守，尤其是直线的穿越球。 Djokovic’s backhand stood tall against Federer’s net play as he scorched 11 backhand passing-shot winners that made Federer second-guess coming forward. Djokovic also hit two forehand passing-shot winners for a total of 13 which was much higher than Federer’s two passing shot winners for the match. Djokovic的反手拍限制了Federer的网前发挥，出色的反拍穿越球让Federer上网时更加犹 豫。Djokovic击出了包含两个正手穿越的13个穿越致胜球，比Federer的2个穿越致胜球多 出许多。 IBM’s Aggressive Analysis, a measure of a shot's power, direction, depth and point of origin on the court, highlighted Federer’s slight edge with bigger forehands, hitting 75 to 69 for the match. But when it came to backhands, Djokovic was in a class all of his own, dominating 58 to 34. Djokovic ultimately committed 41 total backhand errors for the match but it was several less than Federer’s 50. Djokovic committed 10 backhand errors in sets one, two and four, but he locked it down in set three when desperately called upon for only six errors. IBM的侵略性分析使用击球的力道、方向、深度与击球位置判断求的侵略性。这项分析指出 Federer在正拍上的些微优势，Federer总共击出75个具侵略性的正拍，多於Djokovic的69 个。然而在反拍方面，Djokovic以58个具侵略性的反拍大幅领先Federer的34个。Djokovic 在决赛中共发生了41次的反拍失误，但仍少於Federer的50个。Djokovic在第一、二、四盘 个发生了10个反拍失误，但在第三盘时有小的控制反拍失误到仅有6个。 In the deciding fifth set, with the title completely up for grabs, the Serb committed only five backhand errors. It helped stop the bleeding of losing the fourth set, which he had led 5-2 and failed to convert a match point at 4-5 when Federer aced him. In the fifth set, with Djokovic battling the scoreboard, crowd, an in-form opponent and fatigue, there was not a shot he had more confidence in than his beloved backhand. Djokovic won 48 per cent (93/193) of points that he finished at the baseline, mainly because of his rock-solid backhand, while Federer could only manage 40 per cent (65/161) when he was at the baseline when a point ended. 在决胜的第五盘中，当双方都十分可能拿下比赛时，Djokovic仅仅发生了5次反拍失误，帮 助他从5-2领先时输掉第四盘，甚至错过了5-4领先时的赛末点的情况下止血。(Federer赏 了个ACE) 当Djokovic在第五盘中与分数、观众、状态良好的对手和疲累的身心中拼搏时， 他最有信心的无疑是他心爱的反手拍(\反拍萌萌/....咦)。Djokovic在底线结束分数时赢 得了48%的分数(93/193)，主要也是因为他(华硕品质)坚若磐石的反拍。Federer在底线结 束分数时的得分仅有40%(65/161)。 Second-Serve Points Federer served like a god when hitting a first serve, crushing 29 aces, making an extremely high 69 per cent of first serves and winning 77 per cent of them. Those kind of numbers usually get the job done on any other day. It was almost impossible for Djokovic to make a dent against Federer’s first serves but when he missed it, that’s when defense turned into offense for the Serb. Djokovic humbled Federer’s second serve, with the Swiss superstar only winning a tournament low 44 per cent over the five sets. 二发得分 Federer再发进一发时如同费神降临，轰出29记ACE，一发进球率为极高的69%，一发得分率 更高达77%。这样的数据大部份都足以赢下比赛了。对Djokovic来说，对抗Federer的一发 十分困难，但当Federer一发没进时，Djokovic得以转守为攻。Djokovic对Federer的二发 持续施加压力，使得Federer在决赛中的二发得分率来到本次所有比赛中最低的44%。 By contrast, Djokovic has solid numbers on first serves, making 62 per cent, winning 73 per cent, but was lights out on second serves compared to Federer. Djokovic was almost 50 per cent better than Federer in this area, winning 65 per cent of his second serve points under extreme pressure. This was also six per cent better than Djokovic’s tournament average, giving him another key strategic area to rely on in the final. Djokovic has always counted his second serve return as a strength of his game and it really came to play on Sunday. 另一方面，Djokovic在一发数据上十分稳健，一发进球率与得分率分别为62%和73%。然而 Djokovic在二发的数据上远远优於Federer。Djokovic在二发数据上比Federer好了将近 50%，在极大的压力下二发得分率是65%(!?)。Djokovic在决赛中的的二发得分率比这次温 网其他赛事高出了6%，成为他在决赛中另一项关键的可靠策略战术。Djokovic的二发回球 是他比赛中的强项，而在星期天的决赛中他在此领域也有出色的发挥。 Attacking Federer correctly came to the net as much as possible against Djokovic to find an edge, winning 78 per cent (28/36) serving and volleying and 66 per cent (44/67) approaching. It was a smart strategy that especially got Federer back into the match after he trailed 2-5 in the fourth set. Federer came to the net 16 times in the fourth set, which was second only to 17 in the opening set, which he also won. If there was one strategy he might regret not using more, it would be the drop off in getting to the net in the fifth set - where he came in only 14 times, winning eight. With Djokovic on the ropes physically and mentally, an all-out assault on the front of the court may have yielded a different result. 攻击性击球 Federer尽可能上网抢得先机的战术是正确的。他发球上网的得分率为78%(28/36)，上网 得分率则是66%(44/67)。这是个聪明的策略，在Federer第四盘2-5落後时尤其奏效。 Federer在第四盘上网16次，只比第一盘的17次少，Federer也拿下了第一与第四盘。如果 Federer会後悔没有使用任何战术，应该是在第五盘减少了上网次数：Federer在第五盘仅 仅上网了14次，赢得了其中的8次。当Djokovic在身心上都几乎走投无路时，在网前的全 方位攻击或许会导致不同的结果。 -- 闲聊时间 我个人满喜欢这种数据派的分析（跟本身专业领域或许有关）， 但有些时候数据还是不太够多 如同最後这段的上网次数跟得分率 其实五盘来说差异应该都不大 虽然Federer在底线的确不具优势 但个人觉得大多数时间他的上网选择都还算不错 (我绝对不会想起Roddick的莫名乱上网而感伤QQ) 只是Djokovic的底线穿越球太过出色了 以上，谢谢大家。 --

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