补上剩下的部份 ※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之铭言： : http://tinyurl.com/3dr5sj : by Jim McLennan 3. Can the bullpen be as dominant again? In a word, no. Valverde: 2008 ERA+ 177; career ERA+ 141. Lyon: 176/105. Pena: 144/121. Cruz: 152/105. All four main relievers were pitching well over their heads, and while coach Bryan Price deserves a lot of credit, it would be wise to expect some kind of regression to the mean in 2008. That is perhaps most true for Lyon, who avoided home runs almost entirely (not allowing any until July 20) and ended with just two in 74 innings, compared to a previous career rate of about one every seven innings. The departure of Valverde to Houston means Lyon will be the closer, though many people expect him to be replaced by Tony Pena before very long (and certainly by 2009, as this is Lyon's last year under contract). This is not to say that the bullpen will be a liability, and with the addition of Chad Qualls it still figures to have four above-average arms. (First-round pick Max Scherzer may see action later on, albeit only if the Diamondbacks decide he won't work as a starter.) While Melvin rolls the lineup dice on almost a daily basis, he prefers to employ his relief corps in well-defined roles, so expect Cruz to pitch the sixth and Qualls the seventh, with the ball being handed to Pena for the eighth and then finally over to Lyon. That pattern worked extremely well last season, and if the starters can go deep into games, we'll see it used again in 2008. It'd be a lot less nerve-wracking for fans if the offense can help reduce the number of one-run leads they have to preserve, since the odd bump in the road is inevitable. 3.牛棚还会像去年一样威猛吗？ 不会。Valverde、Lyon、Pena、Cruz，这四个人去年的表现都远超过生涯平均，因此今年 他们表现下滑的可能性比较大。 特别是Lyon，去年整季只被打了两支全垒打，但生涯平均每七局就会有一支。Lyon今年会 是队上的终结者，虽然说很多人预期他很快就会被Pena取代。 这并不是说今年的牛棚会表现不佳。在Qualls加入後，牛棚还是会有四位高於平均的投手 (Max Scherzer也有可能会加入)。虽然说Melvin喜欢乱排打线，但他对牛棚却是分工明确 。未来的胜利方程式还是会和过去相似:Cruz-Qualls-Pena-Lyon。 这方法在去年很管用，而如果今年的先发投手还是一样耐操，这样的赢球模式还是会持续 。如果今年的火力能有所提升，牛棚的压力将会大为减轻。(还有球迷的压力) 4. Dan Haren: ace, No. 2 stopper, or mid-rotation starter? The perception is that the D-backs sold the farm to get Haren. In their defense, though, said farm was somewhat superfluous, with every position player bar Orlando Hudson being under their control through at least 2010. Over the last three years, among the pitchers with 400 innings (already a fairly elite club with only 90 members), Haren's ERA+ of 119 ranks 21st, ahead of that of aces like Penny and Beckett. In 2007, Haren had a phenomenal first half: It took 18 outings for his ERA to go above 2.00, and he was the starter for the AL in the All-Star game. He hit a rough patch in early September, but he still set a new career low for ERA and new high for strikeouts. Haren has now moved to the NL, and he will face pitchers, not the DH. That's good. But he has now also moved to a much more hitter-friendly park, and his above-average HR/9 (1.10 over the past three years) is potentially troublesome in Chase. It's difficult to say which of these factors will have a greater impact on Haren's performance in 2008, though if he is as good as he was early last year, it probably doesn't matter. That said, my expectations are not quite so high. Webb will remain the staff ace, but Haren will give the Diamondbacks a 1-2 punch that is likely unrivaled in the National League (with all due respect to Johan and Pedro). And following behind that pair will be a certain five-time Cy Young winner... 4.Dan Haren是怎样的投手？ 在过去三年投满400局的投手中，Haren的ERA+为119，排名21，高过Penny和Beckett。07年 对Haren来说是美好的一年：开季的超低防御率、明星赛先发。虽然在九月陷入低潮，但在 防御率和三振还是创下个人的生涯新高。 来到国联後，Haren将会面对没有DH的打线，但Chase　Field是有名的打击球场，而Haren 是偏向飞球型的投手。目前还看不太出来这两样因素的影响力有多少，但只要他的状况和 去年一样，Haren和Webb将会组成国联最强的1-2号。 然後接下来还有一位五届赛扬奖投手... 5. Will Randy, and his back, bounce back? This was question No. 1 last year, and we know how that worked out, though reviewing what I wrote then, I did mention that last year's Hardball Times Annual predicted an ERA for Johnson of 3.70 ERA, credibly close to the eventual figure of 3.81 in ten starts. (By the way, the expectation from this year's book is a 3.84 ERA and 119 innings.) This season, Johnson has had longer to rehab from the surgery, and he described how he feels as "night and day" compared to 2007. It was apparently a different kind of procedure—more serious and invasive, but intended to resolve the issue permanently. So the previous relapse does not necessarily mean that the same will happen in 2008. Certainly, Johnson showed on occasion last year that he could be extremely effective, such as one-hitting the Rockies for six innings at Coors Field on May 15. Overall, he struck out 72 in 56.2 innings with just 13 walks, and he held left-handers to a minute .182 average. He clearly had something left in the tank. Still, he's now one year older, and only one pitcher his age has reached 10 wins since Nolan Ryan did so in 1991. But Jamie Moyer's 14 victories last year showed it can be done. And—to reword marginally what I said last year—if you had to pick one 44-year-old as a pitcher to whom you should hitch a franchise's fortunes, there's probably nobody better for the job than RJ. 5.Randy Johnson会回来吗？ 这是去年最大的问题，而我们都知道结果如何。去年ＴＨＴ对他的预测是防御率3.70，而 巨怪去年的成绩是10次先发，防御率3.84。今年Randy Johnson有更多的时间复健，而他 似乎试想本去年的问题一劳永逸的解决，所以今年应该不会像去年一样旧伤复发。 去年Johnson的成绩显示他还是相当有威力的投手：6局1安打比赛，72 K/ 56 IP。然而， 他又老一岁了，自1991年的Nolan Ryan以来只有一个人可以在44岁时超过10胜。但Jamie Moyer的14胜显示这个障碍还是可以被克服的。还有，就像我去年说的，如果你要把全部 的筹码压在一个44岁的老人身上，Randy Johnson会是你最好的选择。 --

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