试着翻译一下 请大大们不吝指教 ※ 引述《jparry (可以丢了)》之铭言： : 轮到状元郎了 : http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/17/16294/6319 : 如果仍是新秀的话会排在第一 Justin Upton was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2005, the first overall pick, out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia. He was a renowned amateur player and the younger brother of B.J. Upton, himself an exceptional prospect. Scouts loved B.J, and most of them thought that Justin could be even better. He didn't sign until January 2006 but I gave him a Grade A- in the 2006 book anyway, based on his scouting reports. Justin Upton是响尾蛇队在2005年以状元签选上的。一个从Chesapeake, Virginia地区来 的高中生(学校:Great Bridge)。他是一位着名的业余球员，同时也是另一位优秀新秀 B.J. Upton的弟弟。球探们喜欢B.J，而Justin则被认为比他的哥哥更优秀。他直到2006年 1月才签约，但我还是在2006年的书中将他评为Grade A-，根据他的球探报告。 Assigned to South Bend in the Midwest League for '06, Upton had a somewhat disappointing season. He hit .263/.343/.413 with 12 homers and 15 steals, which is actually not bad at all for the Midwest League, well-known for cold weather and poor hitting environments. His OPS came out OK at +10 percent compared to league, and his Secondary Average was good at +31 percent. He continued to impress scouts with his tools, although some felt he was just coasting, questioning his work ethic, especially early in the season. His makeup was previously considered to be excellent. I gave him a Grade A- in the 2007 book, still considering him an elite prospect but watching to see if the work ethic issue got better or got worse. 2006年Upton从South Bend出发，打出一个有些让人失望的球季。成绩是.263/.343/.413 12支大支的和15次盗垒。事实上，这样的成绩并不算差，毕竟Midwest League的湿冷天气 让打者有些难以发挥。他的OPS比联盟平均高了10趴，Secondary Average则是高了31趴 (联盟平均:.253/.325/.365)球探们还是喜欢他的工具，但有些人觉得他只是随便打打，工 作态度有些问题，特别是在开季的时候。他的整体条件还是很棒。我在2007年的书中给他 Grade A-，认为他还是一个优异的年轻人，但是态度方面的问题还要再观察。 Upton began 2007 at Visalia in the California League, tearing it apart with a .341/.433/.540 mark in 32 games. Promoted to Double-A Mobile, he continued crushing the ball, hitting .309/.399/.556 with 13 homers. He combined to steal 19 bases between the two levels. The work ethic problem was apparently not a long-term issue, as he appeared to learn from 2006. Promoted to the majors, he hit just .221/.283/.364 in 43 games and is no longer a technical rookie. However, given his extreme young age his shaky major league numbers don't really concern me. If he was still technically a prospect I'd have him as Number One on my list. 2007年Upton从Visalia开始，在32场比赛中打出.341/.433/.540。接下来，升上2A後依旧 火热，打出.309/.399/.556外带13支全垒打。在两个层级的联盟中总共盗垒19次。工作态 度显然不是个长时间的问题，看来他在2006年球季有学到教训。升上大联盟後，Upton在 43场比赛中打出.221/.283/.364，同时也丧失了规则上的新秀资格。假如他还保留新秀资 格的话，他会是我今年的头号新秀。 I think all Upton really needs to thrive is more experience. From a purely player development perspective, I would love it if he would get a season of Triple-A under his belt to make final adjustments in his game, then stick him in the majors as a regular in 2009 at the age of 21. That would be my ideal. But I'm generally conservative about promoting prospects, and the Diamondbacks are going to go ahead and use him as the everyday right fielder this year by all accounts. It's not what I would do, but they didn't ask me. 我想现在Upton需要的只是更多的经验。从一个纯粹球员发展的观点，我会希望他先在3A 多打一些比赛做调整，然後在2009年让他当先发外野手。这只是我的想法，however，我 对於球员的升级一直是比较保守的。显然响尾蛇队希望早一点就让Upton担任先发右外野 。 What can we expect? Short run predictions for 2008 James: .278/.353/.496 Shandler: .270/.344/.467 ZIPS: .248/.313/.404 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .271/.349/.471 Me: .259/.325/.429. 一些预测: James: .278/.353/.496 Shandler: .270/.344/.467 ZIPS: .248/.313/.404 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .271/.349/.471 Me: .259/.325/.429. Three very similar, ZIPS the outlier. I'm not as optimistic as James, Shandler, and PECOTA, as I think he needs more adjustment time and the short-term performance might be rather mediocre. PECOTA comps are interesting. Delmon Young is the top one, B.J. Upton second. Other names on the list are a mixture of stars, decent players, and busts: Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, Ben Grieve, Chad Hermansen (scary!), Dee Brown (double-scary), Ken Griffey Jr (very nice), Shawn Green, Vernon Wells. PECOTA thinks that Upton could be excellent, but that he isn't a sure thing quite yet. In the long run, I think Upton will be on the upper end of those expectations, perhaps not quite Ken Griffey Jr-in-his-prime good but not far from that. As long as he keeps his head on straight, and doesn't have some sort of catastrophic injury, I think he'll live up to what people expect of him. 除了ZIPS之外其他三都很一致。我不像James, Shandler, PECOTA,那样乐观。我认为Upton 还有些地方需要调整，所以短期内成绩应该不会太好。 PECOTA的比较很有趣，Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, 然後是其他人Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, Ben Grieve, Chad Hermansen(抖!), Dee Brown(抖抖!!), Ken Griffey Jr (很棒), Shawn Green, Vernon Wells。PECOTA认为Upton有可能会变成很 棒的球员，但现在一切都还不确定。 长时间看来，我认为Upton可以表现的比上面的预测都还好，也许还不到Ken Griffey Jr全 盛时期那样恐怖但也不远了。只要他持续成长、不要有重大的伤病问题，我想他应该可以 成为大家期待中的「那个人」。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3