※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之铭言： http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hot-stove-round-table-part-4/ A's trade Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland 运动家把Dan Haren跟Connor Robertson拿来与响尾蛇的Carlos Gonzales, Brett Andersion,Chris Carter,Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith,Dana Eveland交换 Geoff Young: This seems to help both teams. The A's have followed a similar path before, with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, so it should come as no surprise that they would move Haren. Of the guys they're getting in return, I like Gonzalez the best, although Carter and Eveland could turn into something . I expect the NL West to remain one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, with Arizona probably the early favorites. Geoff Young: 看来对交易的两队都有帮助，运动家照着之前小蜜蜂、探员跟鸡头相似的 老路继续走下去，所以会这样交易掉丹哈伦并没有太大意外。在交易回来的新秀里面最 得人喜欢的的应该是Gonzales，而Carter跟Eveland也可能会长出来，而西区应该还是竞争 最激烈的分区，而亚历桑那应该会是比较早受到季後赛恩宠的。 Chris Constancio: In my opinion, this package of prospects is comparable to the rumored offers for Santana. You can also make a case that overall the package of prospects is comparable to what the Marlins got for Cabrera and Willis, though Arizona didn't send anyone with the upside of Andrew Miller. Chris Constancio:照劣者的看法，打包过来的新秀拿来跟山大王还有马林鱼的火车还有 小卡布的交易来看的话，亚利桑那并没有送到像是Andrew miller那个等级的选手 Carlos Gonzalez is a top tier prospect. Scouts and coaches have questioned his focus and attitude on the field for some time now, but the 21-year-old is an athletic outfielder with above-average power potential. Brett Anderson is now Oakland's best pitching prospect. At only 19 years old, Anderson cruised through the Midwest League and California League, posting an above-average strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate at both stops. He isn't particularly athletic and doesn't throw hard, so he might get labeled as a mid-rotation "finesse" pitcher by the time he gets to the major leagues. His performance has been special, however. 而Carlos Gonazles是第一等的新秀，而多数的球探跟教练都对他在球场上的专注力跟 态度有所质疑，但他只是个21岁有运动能力而且还有长打潜力的外野手。 Brett Anderson现在是奥克兰最好的头号新秀，Anderson在中西联盟跟加州联盟中闯荡 并在三振保送率、以及滚飞比两个项目中，交出了超出平均的成绩。 他并不是一个特别的运动选手，而且投的并不吃力，所以在大联盟的话他可能会被注记 是一个中段轮值的好选择，不管怎样，目前他的成绩表现已经相当特别了。 Eveland and Smith, both left-handed pitchers, profile as more average pitchers who could help the A's right away. Eveland is only a year removed from being one of the most effective pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Eveland跟Smith都是左手投手，而且是数据看起来都是超过平均的投手，也都是马上可 以成为运动家的即战力。 隔一年伤癒复出的Eveland之前是3A太平洋联盟里面最有效率的投手之一 Carter, a first baseman, and Cunningham, an outfielder, are both a few years away but greatly improve the organization's depth among position players. Cunningham was one of my choices for a breakout season in 2007, and he didn't disappoint as the 21-year-old demonstrated a well-rounded offensive skills in the Carolina League and Southern League this year. Although he probably won't be a star, I think only a freak injury could stop his ascent to the major leagues as a good fourth outfielder or better. Carter(一垒手)、Cunningham(外野手)可能距离大联盟还有几年，但对农场的深度来说 是个大捕丸。因为之前受伤的缘故，所以年初时我觉得Cunningham今年可能会 大突破的一年，而21岁他的并没有因为之前受伤而气馁，在加州跟南方联盟表现出具备 全能攻击技巧的成绩。虽说他可能不会是一个球星，但除非受了很难搞定的伤， 不然应该蛮有机会长成第四号或是更好顺序的外野手。 Carter is limited to a future at first base or as a designated hitter but his upside is considerable. If you thought his 25 home runs 2007 were impressive, wait until you see what he does when he's another year older, leaves his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and heads to the California League next year! Carter的条件受限於他只能当一垒或是指定打击，但他的成长幅度还是可以被考虑的。 如果你觉得2007年的25发就很印象深刻的话，就再等他一年吧，等他离开这个队投手有 利的的主场，到加州联盟去的话，会有更好的表现。 Although Arizona gives up a lot of prospects, they already have a solid core of young talent and now have a good and affordable No. 2 starter for their rotation. Oakland avoids adding talent to a competitor in the American League and their farm system suddenly looks above average. It's a deal that works well for both teams, in my opinion. 虽然亚利桑那给了一托辣库的新秀，但他们已经有一个很稳固的新血核心，而现在他们 有了一个一个很棒、拿得出去的二号投手在他们的投手轮值里面，而奥克兰也避免了其他 可能资敌的交易，而他们现在的农场深度看起来马上就超越联盟平均，在我看来， 这是一个互利的交易。 John Beamer: The trade that the Yankees dared not make. Any time you make a six to two swap you're going to come out with something. The A's farm system isn't what it used to be, with few stellar prospects in the ranks. Beane figured that with the Angels strengthening, the odds are on a few fallow years for his Oakland team. Rather than doing a Houston and trying to contend when they probably can't, Oakland has entered rebuilding mode. John Beamer:这个交易看来就是基佬不敢做的，当你要做这种六换二的交易时候就可 能要出些好料。而运动家的农场向来就是养不出太多的明星。 而豆子爷眼见天使不断加强战力下与其跟他拼上太空还拼不倒 不如把可能的机会赌在拼这几年的农场，所以奥克兰进了重建期。 Haren is getting $16 million over the next three years and is worth probably $18-20 million in the free agent market. That is a big surplus in value that the A's have given away. Carter and Cunningham are the linchpins of the deal from Oakland's perspective and they both project well. Evaluating minor league talent is not easy but these guys do have the potential to be stars. Oakland is thinking about its new park and this trade increases the odd of contending then 哈伦这三年会拿到1600万的薪水，而他在自由市场的身价大概是年平均1800~2000左右。 而这是运动家能放掉他拿到的大量的残值新秀的理由。Carter跟Cunningham是这个交易 里面的关键点，而且这个交易如他们所预期的好。当然评估新秀是不容易的事情，而 这些新秀看起来都有机会成为球星，而奥克兰在思考新球场以及这个交易所带来 的未来竞争机会。 This trade vastly improves the Diamondbacks. With Haren and Webb the Snakes have the best pitching in the National League. Are they favorites for the NL West? Probably. Not only do they have a great rotation but their crop of youngsters have one more year of experience under their belt. However, let's not get too giddy. Although there is some evidence to suggest that teams can outpeform their pythag record it is unlikley to be that big an effect (perhaps a couple of games). Don't underestimate how lucky the Snakes were in 2007 to play in the post season. They are a much better team with the addition of Haren and will be on the playoff bubble. 2008 will be exciting in the West. 这个交易对响尾蛇也是大进补，有了哈伦跟伟柏的蛇队，成为了国联最好的投手队伍 而他们是大家认为的西区冠军後选?或许,但他们不只有一个很棒的先发轮值，而他们收 割下来的新秀也因为今年拿下西区冠军而更有了经验。不管怎样，我们就不要口说无凭 虽然可能有些证据来佐证说这个球队可能会有超出他们透过数学计算出来的纪录表现， 但这影响可能不会大到怎样的地步，可能会有一两场这样。 而千万别低估他们在2007季後赛的幸运表现，再有了丹哈伦之後， 08年的季後赛，他们战绩可能因此沸腾，而08年的西区会很刺激。 Chris Jaffe: About 20 years ago, the Mets won 90 games despite being outscored by around 20 runs. However, they had a very young team, a well-respected manager, and in the offseason made a big splash by nabbing Gary Carter. Instead of falling back, they remained one of the best teams in the league for several years. Chris Jaffe:20年前梅子赢了九十场比赛，尽管他们得失分落後了20分左右。 然而他们有一个非常年轻的队伍，还有一个受人尊敬的教练 在季後他们透过大交易拿到了Gary Carter之後 虽然战绩衰退，但他们仍然是联盟里面那几年战绩最好的几支队伍之一。 I think history is repeating itself. There's a lot of of-season left, so I can't say with any confidence who is the team to beat, but right now they're my provisional favorite to win the NL West. And with a rotation fronted by Brandon Webb and Haren, they should be damn tough to take down in the postseason. Expect Arizona to win their third pennant in the next two years. 我想历史会一再重演的，现在距离开季还有一段时间，我等不及想看到哪一只队伍能扁倒 他们，但至少目前我暂时觉得比较看好响尾蛇可以拿下国联西区，而且有了纬柏跟跟哈伦 的一二号先发的季後赛是很难被击倒的。 可以预期後两年的西区竞争，亚利桑那会连庄 三年。 Dave Studeman: Baseball fans might want to read the latest Baseball By the Numbers from Phil Birnbaum and SABR. Bill James has an article in there exactly about how teams that beat their Pythagorean projection did the next season. It confirms what you're saying. Dave Studeman:棒球迷可能想要读一下Phil Birnbaum 跟SABR的最新一期Baseball by the numbers，Bill James有一篇文章标示出来为什麽某些球队就是能打败数学计量的 预期数字，他们是怎麽办到的，这就证实了他们的说词。 Bryan Tsao: As an A's fan, I love Haren as a pitcher, but I'm beginning to think that the A's managed to sell high on him. While that may or may not mean that they got sufficient value for him, Haren has always been a streaky pitcher . He seemed to put it together better last year, but there's not much in his performance record to indicate that he will be able to replicate his stellar performance going forward. A reasonable expectation would be something between the 3.07 ERA he put up last season and his 4.31 career ERA. Bryan Tsao:身为一个运动家球迷，我喜欢哈伦这个投手，但我开始想到应该逢高出售他 这也不一定说哈伦会有对应它身价的意思。 而哈伦一直是个焦躁不安的投手 虽然它看起来去年都把这些问题搞定了，有了好表现。但并没有足够的证据能佐证说 哈伦之後会比现在更好。一个可以解释的理由是他去年的防御率是3.07但生涯平均 是4.31。 I'm sure that Haren will be great for the Diamondbacks, with some otherworldly stretches when the splitter is diving well, but he will likely go through a few rough patches when he starts leaving it up in the zone. I just hope that the Diamondbacks and their fans aren't disappointed if the Haren they get is last season's Haren, and value him for very good pitcher that he is. 我想哈伦会是响尾蛇的好选择， 有着超乎别人的手臂伸展幅度的话，他的Splitter会掉 得很漂亮，但应该会有一阵子的调整期，如果哈伦表现没有去年好的话，我希望响尾蛇 跟他们的球迷不要太过失望。 Also, the fact that different people are touting different prospects that the A's got is very promising to me. I think Beane did a great job of getting a return on Haren. We got over Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, and hopefully some day Gonzalez or Anderson or Carter will be helping us get over Haren. 而且对一个运动家球迷来说，在这个一堆人在兜售自己新秀的方案里面，球队有做到对 球迷的承诺，我想豆子爷作了件很棒的交易，而且从哈伦身上拿回很多回报。 我们已经从探员跟小蜜蜂拿了一堆东西回来，哪天我们也可能从Gonzales跟Anderson, Carter身上拿回弥补哈伦的身价。 Diamondbacks trade Alberto Callapso to the Royals for Billy Buckner 响尾蛇拿出Alberto Callapso跟皇家交易Billy Buckner Chris Constancio: Looks like a small trade, but I think this represents a solid incremental improvement for the Royals. Buckner has some upside but probably won't be more than a fifth starter for any competitive team. Callaspo is an exceptional contact hitter, and he has complemented those skills with above-average plate discipline since leaving the Angels organization. In other words, he could be a Dustin Pedroia-like hitter with the versatility to play any infield position. I think Callaspo will be the Royals' starting second baseman by July. Chris Constancio:看起来像是个小交易，但这对皇家来说代表一个稳定的进阶改善 Buckner看起来还不错，但顶多只是个五号先发的料。但Callaspo是个很棒的Contact Hitter，而他相关的技术也已经成熟，在离开天使的小联盟後，他有着比平均来说更 好的选球能力。他看起来会是一个Pedoria那样有着加强版多才多艺的内野球员。 我想他在七月的时候会进入皇家的先发二垒轮值里面。 The caveat here is that Callaspo has some history of domestic violence. I won't pretend to know how serious this is and whether or not it will lead to distractions in the future. 而警告是，Callaspo有着家暴的历史，我不想假装说我知不知道这个有多严重 或许可能或是不会对他未来场上的表现有什麽不良影响。 Diamondbacks trade Jose Valverde to the Astros for Chad Qualls, Chris Burke and Juan Gutierrez 响尾蛇把Jose Valverde拿去给太空人换回Chad Qualls, Chris Burke跟Juan Gutierrez Geoff Young: The Astros are a puzzle to me. It looks like Ed Wade and company are trying to leverage the NL Central's general weakness into a division title. I'm not sure they have the guns to justify moving this aggressively this soon, but I guess they figure since there's no real dominant team in the division, they might as well go for it. We'll see how it works for them. Valverde is a solid reliever and a name brand. Still, I'm not sure that a "proven closer" should be Houston's top priority right now. Geoff Young；太空人对来说像是个谜团，我实在搞不懂。 看起来Ed Wade跟球团想要 利用国联中区的共同弱点拿到分区冠军。 (啥，人人有机会，各各没把握吗?) 我不太清楚他们急於去做这个很侵略性的交易来证明些什麽 但我猜他们看到这个分区里面没有绝对优势的队伍 而他们有机会透过这样可以好整以瑕的拿下分区。 我们就等着看他们要怎麽做，Valverde是个很稳定的救援而且有着救援王的加持。 但我并不确定这样一个已经是完成体的救援投手会是太空人的急迫选择。 -- 将就一点看吧，很久没翻外电了。 ※ 编辑: chadtracy 来自: 59.112.48.133 (12/19 03:04) ※ 编辑: chadtracy 来自: 219.84.178.157 (12/19 10:43)