http://tinyurl.com/pwy6t Ex-Cubs bear bad news for playoff teams Joseph A. Reaves The Arizona Republic Aug. 6, 2006 12:00 AM Now that the non-waiver trade deadline has passed and the rosters for the stretch run are fairly set, it's time to see how the Ex-Cub Factor is going to affect the postseason. 当non-waiver交易大限过去与各队的roster大致抵定之後，Ex-Cubs效应才正要开始影响 季後赛的发展。 The Ex-Cub Factor, for those who don't know, was discovered in 1981 by Chicago writer and teacher Ron Berler and modified five years later by Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Royko. Ex-Cubs效应第一次是在1981年被Ron Berler发现，并在五年之後被Mike Royko修正。 Berler determined any team with three or more former Chicago Cubs players on the roster was doomed in the World Series. Since 1945, the last time the Cubs were in the World Series, only two teams have won with the three or more ex-Chicago North Siders on the roster - and both did it with miracle comebacks: the 1960 Pirates and 2001 Diamondbacks. advertisement Berler说只要roster有超过三位前Cubs的球员，那麽球队就会输掉世界大赛。在1945年 Cubs最後一次进入世界大赛之後，只有两队在拥有三位以上的前Cubs球员的情况下赢得 世界大赛－1960年的Pirates和2001年的Diamondbacks－而且都是神奇的逆转胜。 Royko modified Berler's theorem by arguing the team with the most ex-Cubs on its roster was bound to lose. Royko修正Berler的理论：他说拥有最多的前Cubs球员会输。 So, if Royko and Berler are correct, and the current rosters don't change, the Cardinals and Mets will play for the National League pennant with the Cards prevailing. That's because the Cardinals don't have any ex-Cubs. The Mets have one (Steve Trachsel) and the leading teams in the NL West all have more: the Dodgers at two with the addition of Greg Maddux at the trade deadline and three each for the Padres (Scott Williamson, Mark Bellhorn, Todd Walker) and Diamondbacks (Luis Gonzalez, Juan Cruz, Miguel Batista). 所以，如果Royko和Berler是对，同时各队roster到季後赛前都不变的话，那麽Mets和 Cardinals将会进入NL Champion Series同时Cardinals会赢得NL Championship，因为 Cardinals没有任何前Cubs球员。Mets有一位(Steve Trachsel)，而在NL West领先的 各队都有前Cubs球员。Dodgers有两位(Greg Maddux, Nomar Garciaparra(?!))， Padres有三位(Scott Williamson, Mark Bellhorn, Todd Walker)， Diamondbacks有三位(Luis Gonzalez, Juan Cruz, Miguel Batista)。 The American League should be more competitive. Three teams - the Tigers, A's and Angels all are free of ex-Cubs. The Red Sox have one (Julian Tavarez) and the Yankees two (Kyle Farnsworth and Miguel Cairo). AL则更竞争。Tigers, A's, Angels都没有前Cubs球员。Red Sox有一位(Julian Tavarez) Yankees则有两位(Kyle Farnsworth and Miguel Cairo)。 Whichever of the three AL teams without any ex-Cubs makes the World Series will beat St. Louis. That's because Cardinals manager Tony La Russa played the last game of his big-league career with the Cubs, scoring the winning run as a pinch-runner in the 1973 season opener. 不过只要AL进入World Series的球队没有前Cubs球员，他们都可以打败Cardinals，因为 Cardinals的总教练Tony La Russa在1973年的开幕战(Tony La Russa生涯最後一战)，穿 着Cubs的制服上场代跑，并跑回了制胜分。 --- 翻得不好，有错请指正。:) --

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