原文出处： http://www.blessyouboys.com/2010/11/7/1800196/tigers-would-have-been- better-served-by-picking-up-jhonny-peraltas (文中的数据图表请上原址看比较清楚) Tigers would have been better served by picking up Jhonny Peralta's option Jhonny Peralta's best season in professional baseball was in 2005. His second best was in 2008. He managed to hit for a fair average in both years, as well as some power. However, in the past two seasons, he has gotten worse and worse at the plate, and in the field he was driven from the keystone position of shortstop to third base until Detroit returned him to the middle of the infield. Peralta的生涯年远在2005球季，第二个高峰在2008，这两季他能够维持一定 的AVG加上不错的POWER，但近两季在进攻的表现上则每况愈下，另外因防守 不力从SS被移至3B，直至来到老虎才又将他移回SS. Sunday the Detroit Tigers agreed to a two-year deal with him worth at least $11.75 million with an option for a third year that would increase the total value of the contract to $17.25 million. Peralta的新合约包含两年保证约共11.75m加上第三年的球队选择权，总值可 达17.25m They now have a below average defender at shortstop and first base, as well as a third baseman who has been sliding closer toward average each season. And they have this infield for the next two seasons and possibly three. 我们现在拥有守备能力低於联盟平均值1B & SS，还有个防守日益衰退逐渐接 近平均值的3B…(英吉你要撑住阿~~)而这样的阵容看来将维持至少两年(甚至三年) Excuse me if I take a moment here to mourn for the future of contact pitcher Rick Porcello, whose ability to get ground balls requires the team to put a solid infield defense around him. This infield defense is certainly doing him no favors going forward. 忍不住提一下Porcello，这样的内野阵容，不就是要滚地球投手他的命吗?? But at least Peralta can contribute some offense right? He had 14 home runs in 2010, and has had as many as 23 in the past. I just hope the Tigers are not making the mistake of overvaluing the RBI statistic, because it's hard to find a reason they would give Peralta such a pay raise for any other reason. Clearly, they overvalue offense, learning nothing from the fact 2006 and 2009 were the team's best two seasons since the 1980s and both years were predicated on a defense-first mentality. 至少，Peralta能提供一定的火力吧??10球季有14轰，最多一季有23轰实力，但 作者希望这个合约不是因为球团高估了RBI价值，不然怎麽看，都不该给这麽高 ，另外我们自80年代以来战绩最好06 & 09两个球季，其实都是以防守为主的阵 容(这我不完全同意…) The past two seasons, Peralta has been a 1.4 and 1.2 wins above replacement player. This is obviously a slight improvement over Adam Everett, who was a 0.6 win player in 2009 and 0.3 in 2010. 比较这两季Peralta跟Everett的win share 1.4/1.2 vs. 0.6/0.3，当然是前者 乐胜啦~~(跟Everett比…谁会输阿??) Worrisome are Peralta's splits at Comerica Park during his career: 还要担心的是，Peralta生涯在咱们自家主场都打得很不顺手 Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Comerica Pk 321 33 78 16 0 6 40 25 60 BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip .243 .295 .349 .644 .277 Not good. In the past two years, they have been even worse. For example, this was the picture in the 2010 season: 恩…不好，而且是越来越糟… Split AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO Comerica Pk 121 9 27 4 0 2 19 11 16 BA OBP SLG OPA BAbip .223 .284 .306 .589 .238 Obviously too much can be made of splits. They are a smaller sample size. But the picture in Detroit so far has been bleak and consistently bad over so many seasons it does not give a lot of confidence. 你可能会说是样本基数太小，不够准确。但持续几季的低潮， 仍不能让人太过於乐观 Another reason to worry about this deal: The closest comparisons to Peralta, however, will not thrill Tigers fans. He is remarkably similar to Neifi Perez and Edgar Renteria at similar ages: 再一个担忧的地方，如果仔细比较~~会发现Peralta与两位前老虎SS： Neifi Perez/ Edgar Renteria的生涯成绩/年纪非常非常相似 (OH~~这真的有吓到我….) 原文有图，但我不会转图上来，磕头道歉…..ORZ The wOBA stat is a quick way of encompassing all the things a batter does into one quick glance. It's scaled to look similar to the OBA we are already familiar with. In other words, .330 is about average. .350 and above is good. Peralta's woBA the past two years has been .304 and .309. wOBA是一可以快速综观打者整体能力的数值(有哪位高手可以解释吗?? 我是不大熟)，简而言之这项数据.330是平均值、.350就很不错了，而P eralta近两年的成绩分别为.304 & .309… As you can see, neither Renteria nor Perez were good players at the age of 28. The Tigers have to hope Peralta follows Renteria's lead and improves. However, Renteria went from the American League to the National League and showed his improvement there. And hey, at least Perez could play some defense. 从wOBA的数据可知，Renteria和Perez在28岁这个年纪都不怎麽样…现在 我们得祈祷Peralta能够进步甚至打破这样的成长轨迹 别忘了Renteria回到国联後，成绩大跃进，Perez还能提供防守 (所以是说Peralta可能甚麽都没有?!) The Tigers didn't have a lot of good choices in finding a shortstop for the 2011 season. The free agent market was not ripe, and the internal candidates were not great. However, Detroit would have been best served by picking up the 2011 option for $7.25 million rather than locking in a player like this for multiple years. This move is not one to be celebrated. It is one to be tolerated, and only when we get to the end of the offseason and are able to look at the moves as a complete group. 结论：在这个季外，SS真的没有太多好物可供选择(这也是我在先前文章一 直强调的)，然而，作者认为既然如此不如直接捡最後一年7.25M的option， 而非签2+1的复数年合约，那可能会使阵容再一年後更加缺乏弹性。 对这个合约，我们不必讶异，更无须欢喜，就这是个不好不坏的选择，成败 与否，仍要看整个offseason，我们到底抢到那些大咖。 The end… PS:我个人是没如此悲观，不过最惨大概就是如此，大家先有个心理准备也不错XD --

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