http://tinyurl.com/dbdv6a Last year and the year before, I did a long series on base running. This year, I'm going to use the Baseball Prospectus base running stats. Their data is based on an algorithm developed by former BP writer and current Pittsburgh Pirates statistician Dan Fox. Part of what Dan did was similar to what I did but his algorithm is more complex and the results are a little more accurate. Using the retrosheet database and probability theory, Dan Calculated six base running statistics (all of measured in runs above average): * EqAAR (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs) - Contribution of base runners advancing on fly outs * EqGAR (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs) - Contribution of advancement on ground outs. * EqSBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs) - contribution of stolen bases including runs subtracted for caught stealings and pickoffs. * EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) - contribution of runners taking the extra base on a hit: first to third on a single, second to home on a single, first to home on a double. * EqOAR (Equivalent Other Advancement Runs) - contribution of other base running advancements - passed balls, wild pitches and balks (evidence shows that those events are not entirely randomly and are influenced by base runners to an extent). * EqBRR (Equivalent Base Running Runs) - the sum of the five above statistics above or total base running contribution. Each of the measures considers the following: * Number of opportunities * Each runner is compared to league average for each situation mentioned above * Base runners are penalized for making outs on bases attempting to advance Adjustments are made for the following: * Runners on base and numbers of outs before and after the play determine the run value * Run value is also influenced by where the ball is hit - left field, center field, right field You can read Dan's entire algorithm in detail here, here, and here. Table 1 below presents EQBRR for Tigers base runners in 2007 and 2008. Curtis Granderson has been the leading Tigers base runner over the past two years with a total of 12.38 runs above average. Other above average Tigers include Gary Sheffield (4.93), Placido Polanco (3.85) and newly acquired Gerald Laird (3.31). Their worst base runners are Magglio Ordonez (-9.87) and Miguel Cabrera (-6.84). =============================================================================== Player EqBRR EqBRR EqBRR (2007) (2008) (two years) Curtis Granderson 6.42 5.96 12.38 Gary Sheffield 4.99 -0.06 4.93 Placido Polanco 0.92 2.93 3.85 Gerald Laird 2.15 1.16 3.31 Carlos Guillen -0.17 0.86 0.69 Adam Everett -1.72 0.76 -0.96 Marcus Thames -0.10 -1.49 -1.59 Brandon Inge 0.35 -2.32 -1.97 Miguel Cabrera -4.30 -2.54 -6.84 Magglio Ordonez -1.89 -7.98 -9.87 --

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