The Top Ten 1. SS Javier Baez 2. 3B Kris Bryant 3. CF Albert Almora 4. RF Jorge Soler 5. RHP C.J. Edwards 6. SS Arismendy Alcantara 7. RHP Pierce Johnson 8. 1B Dan Vogelbach 9. 3B Christian Villanueva 10.3B Jeimer Candelario 付费版的我晚点找看有无海盗版释出 Jason Parks是条子球迷 所以他对条子过来的农作物很熟 也是最具参考价值得 Prospects on the Rise Paul Blackburn – RHP (NR) Mark Malave – C (NR) Rob Zastryzny – LHP (NA) Factors on the Farm The Cubs have three players in the system Baseball Prospectus thinks could contribute at the big league level in 2013. The Cubs are hoping Mike Olt (3B) is ready to compete for the third base job in the spring. Baseball Prospectus thinks Olt should rebound from last season but he has work to do with higher level pitching. Jason McLeod said last weekend the Cubs will know during his first live batting practice session of the spring if he is back to the old Mike Olt. Parks pointed out Olt needs to get off to a fast start in the spring. Arodys Vizcaino (RHP) is not 100 percent healthy yet but is expected to be ready in the spring. The Cubs have mentioned a bullpen job is in Vizcaino’s immediate future and Parks thinks Vizcaino’s “plus-plus fastball and hard curve should allow him to excel in a late-innings role.” The player to be named later in the Matt Garza trade might make his way to the majors this season. Neil Ramirez (RHP) could end up in a rotation or in a bullpen. Ramirez is a hard thrower (upper 90s) with “multiple breaking ball looks and a surprisingly decent changeup with sharp action.” Top Talents in the Cubs’ System – 25 and Under (Born 04/01/88 or later) Javier Baez Starlin Castro Kris Bryant Anthony Rizzo Albert Almora Jorge Soler C.J. Edwards Arismendy Alcantara Pierce Johnson Junior Lake With a majority of BP’s breakdown by subscription only, here are a few of the highlights of the top prospects in the Cubs’ system. BP uses the 2-8 scale to grade players tools, the same as the 20-80 scouting scale. 1. Javier Baez, SS Age/DOB – 21/ Dec. 1, 1992 The Tools – 8 power potential; 6+ potential hits; 7 arm; 6 potential glove Strengths – Elite bat speed, elite hands, plus hand-eye coordination, can make hard contact to all fields, natural ability to barrel the ball, raw power is elite, arm is plus-plus, superstar profile Weaknesses – Baez can get impatient at the plate and attempt to hit bad balls out of the park. Baez will expand and chase. Baez has slick actions in the field, can get overly passive and let the balls play him. Baez makes ill-advised throws. Overall Future Potential – High 7, perennial all-star player Realistic Role – High 6, first-division all star ETA – 2014 Baez might lack Buxton’s overall athleticism or Bogaerts’ polish, but the 21-year-old Puerto Rican might have the highest offensive ceiling of any player in the minors, a potential middle-of-the-order force capable of hitting for average and obnoxious game power. While he’s no longer a true boom-or-bust prospect, Baez carries more risk than the average high-end prospect with Double-A experience because of the extreme projections on his tools and the balls-to-the-wall approach he often brings to all sides of the game. As Baez matures and adds more patience at the plate and more confidence in the field, he should develop into one of the game’s elite players, a left-side infielder (short or third) with an offensive attack that some scouts project to achieve Miguel Cabrera-level heights, an extreme comparison but one that his elite bat speed and power potential could make a reality if everything clicks. He needs to shorten up against arm-side pitching and stay in his approach, and he needs to slow the game down in the field and let his hands and arm help the cause rather than hurt it, but he should continue to crush in the upper minors and force a major-league decision at some point in 2014. The Cubs could have a generational talent in Baez. 2. Kris Bryant, 3B Age/DOB – 22/ Jan. 4, 1992 The Tools – 7+ power potential, 5+ potential hit, 6+ arm, 5 glove Strengths – Excellent size and strength, good athlete, elite raw power, highly leveraged swing built for over-the-fence production, plus arm, glove should play to average Weaknesses – Hit tool could limit full utility of power tool, can get tied up inside by quality stuff, more swing and miss could come against better arms Overall Future Potential – 7, all-star player Realistic Role – 6, first-division player ETA – Late 2014 Bryant is ready to start his first full season at the Double-A level, and with any luck, he will be forcing the issue at the major-league level at some point in 2014. The power is enormous and is going to play at the highest level, although he might end up hitting for a lower average and swinging and missing more than some are projecting. While the 22-year-old can play passable defense at the hot corner, his athleticism and arm are a better fit for right field, a position most sources seem to agree is Bryant’s long term home. Regardless of where he plays, the bat could make him an all-star, a true 35-plus home run force in the middle of a lineup. 3. Albert Almora, CF Age/DOB – 19/ April, 16, 1994 The Tools – 6+ potential hit, 6 potential power, 5+ arm, 6+ potential glove Strengths – High-level baseball skills and instincts, natural bat-to-ball ability, can make contact to all fields, hit tool projects to be plus or better, shows advanced approach, above average raw power, glove in center is easy plus, quick reactions, proper reads help range Weaknesses – Concerns about durability, game power is several grades from projection Overall Future Potential – High 6, first-division all star Realistic Role – High 5, above-average player ETA – 2015 Almora is a highly skilled all-around player, with an impact hit tool and the ability to play above-average defense in center. While he lacks graphic tools or middle-of-the-lineup power, the 19-year-old has that rare ability to make the game look easy, both in the field and at the plate. The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level, and even with his advanced feel for the game and instincts, his range is center will be limited by the lack of wheels; despite his quick reactions and almost preternatural feel for tracking balls, his foot speed can’t recover from mistakes like most athletes at the position. Almora is going to hit at every stop, and if he can avoid the injury bug in 2014, he should be able to move quickly, reaching the Double-A level and positioning himself for a major-league opportunity in 2015. 4. Jorge Soler, RF Age/DOB – 21/ Feb. 25, 1992 The Tools – 7 power potential, 5+ potential hit, 7 arm, 5 glove Strengths – Elite raw power, extreme strength, game power could play to plus-plus, could play above average, arm well above average, glove plays Weaknesses – Struggles with adjustments at the plate, questionable pitch recognition, focus has been a question Overall Future Potential – 6, first-division player Realistic Role – 5, Major League regular ETA – 2015 Soler has a prototypical right field profile, with the high-powered arm and the enormous raw power, the kind you can’t truly appreciate unless you get to see him rip balls over mountains in batting practice. But the 21-year-old Cuban struggles making in-bat adjustments, and as a result, pitchers with a good plan of attack can eat his lunch. With his type of power, he can punish mistakes and make you pay for improper placement of a fastball, but his recognition skills and aggressive style open him up to sequence and spin, and the inability to make quick adjustments to his approach could spoil his ultimate potential at the plate. If he can stay on the field, Soler should rake in the minors and push himself to the majors by 2015. But the higher-level arms are going to present a problem for him, so he will need to improve his focus and plan of attack at the plate in order to maximize his talent. 5. C.J. Edwards, RHP Age/DOB – 22/ Aug. 3, 1991 The Tools – 7 potential fastball, 6 potential change-up, 6 potential curveball Strengths – Loose, easy delivery, near elite release, ball explodes out of his hand, fastball very comfortable in the 92-95 mph range, change-up projects as plus offering, curveball currently misses bats, good makeup Weaknesses – Long and slender frame, very narrow at the waist, body does not project to hold much strength or additional mass, fringe fastball command Overall Future Potential – 6, no. 3 starter Realistic Role – 5, late-innings reliever ETA – 2015 Edwards is a very legit prospect whose statistical output creates a slightly more promising profile than the scouting reports. On paper, Edwards looks like a frontline arm, and at times, he can flash that sort of future on the mound. But when/if you watch Edwards in person, you can see that his advanced arsenal is simply too good for the level of competition he is facing, and the same curveball that is making A-Ball hitters look foolish is unlikely to encourage the same result from major-league quality bats. This isn’t to take anything away from Edwards, who has one of the easiest releases in the minors, which along with the crisp velocity makes his fastball a potential well above-average offering. The keys for Edwards will be the body and the fastball command, each of which could limit his overall effectiveness in a rotation. While he’s certainly bigger than the listed weight of 155 lbs., the frame itself is very narrow and it raises concerns about potential workload and durability; frontline arms project to log 200-plus innings season after season. The fastball command might end up being an even bigger hurdle, as the ability to spot the fastball will help the already solid secondary stuff play against more advanced bats, the kind that can track a big curveball out of the hand. The end result could be a mid-rotation arm, or perhaps a late-innings reliever if the durability concerns prove to be true. Regardless, Edwards is going to be a major-league quality arm with impact potential, which is a win for everybody involved in the procurement and developmental process. 6. Arismendy Alcantara, IF Age/DOB – 22/ Oct. 29, 1991 The Tools – 6+ run, 6 arm, 5+ potential glove, 5+ potential hit, 5+ potential power Strengths – Plus athlete with good present strength, excellent hands, creates plus bat speed and above-average power, makes hard contact, multi-dimensional offensive threat, above-average glove at second, five-tool talent Weaknesses – Swing from the right side lacks same punch, some swing and miss, hit tool might only play as average Overall Future Potential – 6, first-division player Realistic Role – 5, Major League regular ETA – 2014 Alcantara would receive more attention in a weaker system, as the 22-year-old infielder has impact tools and could develop into a first-division talent at the major-league level. From the left side, Alcantara is an offensive threat, with bat speed and game power, but he struggles from his weaker right side, as the plane is flatter and the contact not nearly as hard. The speed is a weapon on base and in the field, and with more refinement should give him another above-average tool. A heavy dose of Triple-A secondary stuff will help the five-tool talent refine at the plate, and with any luck, Alcantara could get a major-league taste in 2014. While I’m not a big fan of comps, especially if they are forced, the industry suggested Jose Reyes-lite fits Alcantara very well. 7. Pierce Johnson, RHP Age/DOB – 22/ May 10, 1991 The Tools – 6 fastball, 6 potential curveball, 5+ potential change-up Strengths – Prototypical starter’s body, long, lean and athletic, very good arm strength, fastball is plus, low-90s velocity that routinely pops mid-90s on the gun, breaking ball is easy plus, low-80s hammer curve with serious snap, average change-up with projection Weaknesses – Below-average command at present, can lose zip on fastball, change-up is clear third offering Overall Future Potential – 6, no. 3 starter Realistic Role – 5, no. 4 starter ETA – 2015 Several sources prefer Johnson to Edwards in the Cubs system because of his body and breaking ball, which is one of the better offerings in the entire organization. To really step forward, the 22-year-old righty will need to refine his command, spotting his fastball early and knocking the pins down with the aforementioned curve. The ceiling isn’t frontline, but much like Edwards, the developmental path and projection should provide impact, most likely in the middle of a major-league rotation. Johnson will move up to the Double-A level in 2013, and if the command and changeup continue to improve, he could position himself as a legit major-league rotation option in 2015. I really like this arm. 8. Dan Vogelbach, 1B Age/DOB – 21/ Dec. 17, 1992 The Tools – 7 power potential, 6+ potential hit Strengths – Big boy strength, big boy raw power, doesn’t sell out swing for game power, generates impressive bat speed with quick, strong stroke that is short to the ball, makes pitchers work and doesn’t give away outs Weaknesses – Bat-only profile, doesn’t project for much defensively, even at first base Overall Future Potential – 6, first-division player Realistic Role – 5, Major League regular ETA – 2015 Vogelbach is a natural hitter with near elite raw power, and because of his approach and swing, should bring a healthy chunk of the raw into game action. The downside is that Vogelbach is a big-bodied player who is already viewed as a future designated hitter, so his future home will most likely be with an American League team. I don’t care that Vogelbach is fat or that he is a natural DH; I care if he can crush a baseball, and Vogelbach can absolutely crush baseballs. Talent is talent, regardless of what it looks like in a uniform, and if he continues to rake—like almost every source thinks he will —the Cubs are going to have a valuable commodity to trade when things start to get serious at the major-league level in 2015. This kid can hit and teams will covet his bat. 9. Christian Villanueva, 3B Age/DOB – 22/ June 19, 1991 The Tools – 7 glove, 6 arm, 5+ potential hit, 5+ potential power Strengths – Broad-shouldered with good present strength, hands are exceptional in the field, can make every play in, side or back, shows bat speed and some power potential Weaknesses – Can get pull happy, can struggle against quality off-speed pitches, bat profiles as average Overall Future Potential – High 5, above-average player Realistic Role – 5, Major League regular ETA – 2014 Villanueva gets overlooked in a system with Baez, Bryant, and Olt, but the glove at third is the best in the entire org—and one of the best hot corner profiles in the minors—and the bat is capable of hard contact and some over-the-fence power. While he’s unlikely to hit for a high batting average, especially against quality arm-side stuff, Villanueva has fast hands and a quick bat, and he should be able to find average utility with the hit tool, which will allow his above-average raw power to play in game action. His bat isn’t going to set the world ablaze and single-handedly change the fortunes of the franchise, but he could emerge as the best overall candidate to be the Cubs third baseman of the future, with the type of makeup and work ethic to get the most of his physical gifts and the best glove in the organization. Don ’t forget about Villanueva. 10. Jeimer Candelario, 3B Age/DOB- 20/ Nov. 24, 1993 The Tools – 6 potential power, 5+ potential hit, 6 arm, 5 potential arm Strengths – Good present strength, fluid swing from both sides of the plate, shows excellent bat speed and quick path to the ball, very mature approach Weaknesses – Body could escape him, below-average run, range will be suspect at third, glove is below average at present Overall Future Potential – 6, first-division player Realistic Role – 5, Major League regular ETA – 2016 Candy Candelario gets a lot of love from scouts, as the 20-year-old has serious pop in the bat and could develop into another impact player in a system full of impact players. The defensive profile needs a lot of refinement, and the body could make the task more difficult if he loses sight of it as he continues to mature. But with good pitch recognition skills and a discernable plan of attack at the plate, Candelario can take advantage of opportunities and bring his physical tools into game action. Look for Candelario to continue his surge up prospect lists with a strong 2014 season, where his over-the-fence power will start to play a bigger role in his hype. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 36.224.217.106 ※ 编辑: MattSzczur 来自: 36.224.217.106 (01/23 19:13) ※ 编辑: MattSzczur 来自: 61.230.95.123 (01/24 13:21) ※ 编辑: MattSzczur 来自: 61.230.95.123 (01/24 13:27)