TOP 10 PROSPECTS 1. Javier Baez, ss 2. Kris Bryant, 3b 3. C.J. Edwards, rhp 4. Albert Almora, of 5. Jorge Soler, of 6. Pierce Johnson, rhp 7. Arismendy Alcantara, 2b/ss 8. Jeimer Candelario, 3b 9. Dan Vogelbach, 1b 10. Arodys Vizcaino, rhp BEST TOOLS Best Hitter for Average Albert Almora Best Power Hitter Javier Baez Best Strike-Zone Discipline Jeimer Candelario Fastest Baserunner Jacob Hannemann Best Athlete Jacob Hannemann Best Fastball C.J. Edwards Best Curveball C.J. Edwards Best Slider Pierce Johnson Best Changeup Kyle Hendricks Best Control Kyle Hendricks Best Defensive Catcher Will Remillard Best Defensive Infielder Christian Villanueva Best Infield Arm Kris Bryant Best Defensive Outfielder Albert Almora Best Outfield Arm Jorge Soler TOP 15 PLAYERS 25 AND UNDER No Player, Pos (Age) Peak Level 1 Javier Baez, ss (21) Double-A 2 Kris Bryant, 3b (22) High Class A 3 Starlin Castro, ss (24) Majors 4 Anthony Rizzo, 1b (24) Majors 5 C.J. Edwards, rhp (22) High Class A 6 Albert Almora, of (19) Low Class A 7 Jorge Soler, of (22) High Class A 8 Pierce Johnson, rhp (22) High Class A 9 Arismendy Alcantara, 2b/ss (22)Double-A 10 Jeimer Candelario, 3b (20) Low Class A 11 Dan Vogelbach, 1b (21) High Class A 12 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp (23) Majors 13 Junior Lake, of (24) Majors 14 Justin Grimm, rhp (25) Majors 15 Kyle Hendricks, rhp (24) Triple-A Expectations for the 2013 edition of the Cubs remained low entering the season. And the North Siders did their best to live down to them. Not only did the Cubs improve by just five games over the 101-loss 2012 campaign, but the perceived stalwarts of the team stalled significantly on their way to being first-division starters for a contender. First baseman Anthony Rizzo played in 160 games but hit .233/.323/.419, and his inability to hit lefthanders (.617 OPS in 320 career at-bats) remains alarming. Righthander Jeff Samardzija had his moments but also allowed 25 home runs, and veteran Edwin Jackson, brought in on a four-year deal to provide stability, lost 18 games with an ugly 4.98 ERA. Most concerning was 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro, who frequently lost focus and became an out machine during a disastrous .245/.284/.347 season. Poor seasons by those core Cubs contributed to manager Dale Sveum being let go after two seasons, though communication issues and 197 losses helped grease the skids. Team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer selected Padres bench coach Rick Renteria as Sveum’s replacement in early November. Getting the best out of the likes of Castro, Rizzo and Samardzija will be crucial for Renteria, and Castro’s 2014 performance also will affect the farm system. The Cubs have quickly built farm depth and boast an impressive array of talent, particularly among their young hitters. Shortstop Javier Baez ranked second in the minors with 37 home runs, and the 2011 first-round pick hit 20 of them in 54 games at Double-A Tennessee. The system’s top prospect could move off short if Castro, signed through 2019 for $60 million, bounces back. But if Castro doesn’t and Baez tones down his errors, the Cubs will have a crunch on their hands. Baez could move to second, though the Cubs like Arismendy Alcantara, a power/speed middle infielder who moved to second in 2013. Baez could shift to third, but that’s also where 2013 first-rounder Kris Bryant, the No. 2 overall pick and BA College Player of the Year, plays. Bryant could move to right, but that’s where Cuban import Jorge Soler, signed for $30 million in June 2012, profiles best. Baez, Bryant and Soler will have to work out where to play, but the trio gives the Cubs a unique collection of 80-power righthanded bats that other organizations envy. Developing pitchers has been harder for Chicago, but 2012 supplemental first-rounder Pierce Johnson had a strong season, finishing at high Class A Daytona. He was joined in the second-half rotation by three trade imports, chief among them righthander C.J. Edwards. The centerpiece of the Matt Garza deal with the Rangers, the 165-pound Edwards allowed only one hit and no runs in two starts as Daytona swept to the Florida State League title, with Bryant providing the postseason thump for one of the minors’ most talented teams. Chicago added more talent in the July 2 international signing period, signing the top two prospects available, Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez and Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres, for a combined $4.5 million. The organization spent more than $7.6 million on its top five international signings, blowing past its international bonus pool of more than $5.5 million. Q&A 1. Ben (Leland Grove): Hi John, what can you tell us about international prospects Eloy Jimenez and Gleybar Torres, and who came closer to making your list? John Manuel: Both came close to the Top 10, especially Jimenez. There was a version of the Top 10 that included him. I was very unsure about what to do at No. 10; I don't think there is a consensus No. 10, not even within the organization, not to mention outside of it. Jimenez has a lot of things going for him. Being 16 is one though that also works against him in some ways. He's shown some oppo power early on and should be a profile right fielder. Torres has physical development to do but shows a good swing and good actions at shortstop. They'll both be written about in more detail & length in the Handbook. 2. Frank (Chicago, IL): John, I gotta ask: how many of the top 10 are worthy of making BA's top 100? John Manuel: Frank, I could see 7-8 of these guys in the Top 100. For me the cutoff is 7. I don't see Candelario or Vogelbach as consensus top 100 guys, but I can see Alcantara on toward the back because of the power-speed combination 3. en (Leland Grove): I know the Cubs' system is stacked, but Kyle Hendricks was arguably the best pitcher this past season. What led to his omission from the list? John Manuel: He lacks a separating pitch. I don't have a scouting report with a plus grade on it. He has very good control and decent command of a 4-pitch mix, but it's not premium command. He's a strike-thrower without a plus pitch. He had about as good a year as any minor league pitcher had this year; the Cubs had two of those guys with him and Edwards. It's just hard to see Hendricks being more than a fifth starter. He'll be in the 11-20 range of the book but frankly I haven't settled on exactly where yet. 4. Grant (NYC): What can you tell us about Christian Villanueva's tools, and was he in the next third of the top 30? John Manuel: Scouts that I talked to like Villanueva fine, though there are questions about his swing. I got a Matt Dominguez comparison on Villanueva because it's not a fluid swing, but he's a very good defender at 3b. If it clicks offensively he has a chance to be a first-division regular; he's more of a second-division type to me now. 5. Mike (Tampa FL): Between 2013 draftees RHP Trey Masek and LHP Rob Zastryzny, who impresses scouts more and why? John Manuel: I have heard more positives about Zastryzny as a LHP who gets swings & misses with his fastball. He can be erratic, but when he's locked in he's pitching with average velocity, good deception, aggressiveness and a pair of secondary pitches he can throw for strikes. Masek has more pure arm strength but Zastryzny, at this time, is the better overall package. 6. Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, John. How far off the top 10 did Mike Olt land, and are you reasonably confident he'll rebound this year? What is his future position likely to be once he gets the call? John Manuel: The Cubs have 3 tough holdovers, for me, to rank. I lump Olt in with Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters. I know Olt is new to the organization, but his season was just as disastrous as Jackson's, if not moreso. He had a concussion that complicates matters as we've seen in recent years. I always liked Olt but one scout I was talking to who had Cubs pro coverage just wasn't optimistic about his return. I think he's going to give 3B a try again but it won't matter if he doesn't hit. He's putting in a lot of work this offseason with Cubs hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce to try to rework his swing, but I think it shows where I stand that I ranked a guy who's missed two seasons ahead of him. 7. Mike (Tampa FL): Were Paul Blackburn and Dillon Maples close to your top 10? Who was closer, and how did their pitches look this past year? John Manuel: I wouldn't say they were close. I would say they were in the 15-30 discussion. Blackburn is closer but both those guys have a lot of work to do. Both of them were covered for subscribers in the Northwest League top 20; I'll go into more detail in the Handbook but they are unfortunately for the Cubs toward the top of a thin pitching depth system: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2 ... g-reports/ 8. Jaypers413 (IL): Would you consider the Cubs' system to be #1 overall in terms of depth and ceiling? Why or why not? John Manuel: No. A No. 1 overall system would have better balance. It is toward the top in ceiling of hitters thanks to Baez & Bryant, and I like Almora and remain intrigued by Jorge Soler and Arisemndy Alcantara. I think the Cubs are a top five system for sure, thanks to those 7 Top 100 types I mentioned earlier. But it just feels like the No. 1 system would have a few more sure things and more pitching depth. It's impossible to ignore 3 RH hitters with 80 raw power; that stands out at any time but especially right now when power seems to be in short supply. 9. Johnny (GA): What's the skinny on pitcher Erick Leal, John? Is he a top 30 guy to you? Future SP or RP? John Manuel: In the mix toward the back, sounds like more of a starting pitcher mix but wondering about just how much upside is there. Our reports out of the AZL are solid though, throws a lot of strikes and competes well. 10. Eric (Cincinnati, OH): Is Matt Szczur still on your radar, and what does he project as right now? John Manuel: On the radar but more of an extra outfielder. He's athletic for sure but the game does not come easy to him. It really comes down to the swing for him. His makeup and athleticism should allow him to become a solid reserve, but I'm not finding anyone who projects him as a regular. 11. Brendan (Denver, CO): Thanks for the chat, these are a highlight of every off-season. I was eager to see whether Baez or Bryant would take #1, ow that the question is answered, how close was it? Also, how likely do you think it is that Bryant ends up in the OF? Thanks again! John Manuel: It's extremely close. I definitely went back and forth with it, much to the chagrin of our photo editor Jim Shonerd, who organizes what pictures go on the cover of the magazine ... I believe there are organizations that have Bryant No. 1 on their internal Cubs lists, and I can see it. Ultimately, I was swayed by some scouts' questions about Bryant's ultimate ability to stay in the dirt, while Baez is definitely an infielder. It's impossible to really grade out Bryant's power above that of Baez, and Bryant's only real advantage is arm strength, which is a nice advantage but not terribly important. Baez gives you a little more ceiling if he can stay at SS, which is unlikely but not impossible. Honestly, I don't know if there's a "right" answer there. But I went with Baez. 12. Jeff C (Matteson, IL): I was mildly surprised to see CJ Edwards ranked so highly. Does his # 3 ranking suggest that BA sees him as capable of sticking as a starter despite his weight issues? John Manuel: Yes. Durability concerns continue with Edwards and will continue at his current size, but his stuff was firm deep into September; the 93-95 mph reports I got in his last Florida State League start were from outside the organization, not within it. Superstars are unique. Edwards has a chance to be a superstar. He certainly is unique. I understand the trepidation about him; the comps to him start with Oil Can Boyd and I had another scout talk about Satchel Paige. That's instructive only in that players that skinny don't come around that often. My man-crush on Edwards is out there, even though I've backed up a bit, and I don't think the Cubs officials would rank him ahead of, say, Almora or even maybe Soler because Almora is safe bet and Solar has such upside. Durability is the concern but frankly that makes him not too different from every other pitcher on the planet, right? 13. Bob (Mundelein, IL): Among the prospects the Cubs got near the trade deadline, do you take the starting repertoire of Ivan Pineyro or the reliever repertoire of Corey Black? Can Black be a starter? John Manuel: I think you have characterized this fairly. Pineyro's stuff isn't as good as Black's, and according to some of the FSL people I talked to, Pineyro's breaking ball is a question. So even though he's more of a starter & has more pitchability than Black, Black's stuff is better and he has, to me, a higher floor and more upside, so I'd go with Black. 14. Simon (Scotland): What do you think of Juan Carlos Paniagua? John Manuel: I think we can't judge Latin American signees by their signing bonuses. I know it's special arm strength but the ability to make a pitch is different than the ability to throw hard. Long way to go for a 24-year-old. 15. Justin (NY): Why wouldn't the cubs move Baez or Castro to 2B in order to have Bryant play 3B? John Manuel: Because Bryant may not be good enough defensively at 3b. He's really tall for a third baseman. I mean, he's really tall. Listed at 6-foot-5 and looks taller because he's so lean. Hope he can stay at 3b because his arm is really fun to watch. Obviously it should play in the OF as well. He's athletic enough and runs well enough to project as an above-average RF defensively if not better. 16. Brett (Chicago): How does Vogelbach's bat compare to other top prospects? On bat alone, is he a top 50 prospect? Thanks. John Manuel: He's not a top 50 prospect. The short version is, if you believe in Vogelbach, he's a sort of Matt Adams with better hitting ability, because he's shorter and more compact, and he really has a tremendous plate approach. If you don't believe, you think he's Brett Wallace and he'll never be able to turn on pitches on the inner half because of his, well, shape. Also, he's a bottom-of-the-scale defender. He's really a DH. So that's not a top 50 guy unless he's David Ortiz, and he's not. Vogelbach knows what he needs to do. 17. Bob (Mundelein, IL): Catcher seems to be the only position where there isn't a top-tier prospect. Are there any in the Top 30? Did Contreras or Malave come close? John Manuel: Contreras, a converted 3b, has some admirers because of his offensive upside, he made some interesting progress this year. Not a top tier guy as you said but there's something there to be excited about. 18. Craig (The South Pole of Mars): How many of your sources think Candelario will be able to play solid 3B defense (even if not in Chicago)? And does he project enough power to be a good starter at 1B or OF? John Manuel: He needs to stick at 3b, because of the reason you gave. His defense got better this year but he's not as good there as say Villanueva. The work ethic is what gives the Cubs confidence that he'll defend enough there because his arm strength and hands should be good enough. 19. How would you rank Baez, Bryant, Soler, and Vogelbach based on pure raw power? John Manuel: I have had scouts put 80 raw on Baez, Bryant and Soler. Some scouts don't like to give out 80s but I've heard it on all three. No one is putting that on Vogelbach, but Vogelbach does get to his power more than Soler. No one is getting to their power like Baez and Bryant in 2013 though, those guys combined to hit almost 100 HRs between spring games, college games, minors & AFL. 20. Ben (Cubbie Heaven): BA's midseason top 50 had Almora at 16 and Soler at 18, so I was stunned to see them both behind Edwards. Is this a case of Edwards stock shooting up or Almora's and Soler's dropping a bit? John Manuel: Again, if people can't figure this out, I have a CJ Edwards man crush. Just deal with it. Maybe it's because I wish I were that skinny. -- やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ 地狱でいきなり圣书なんえ 読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！杀すえおっ！！ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 36.224.195.168 潜力 BA的新老大或许不认为後者的POWER能到75-80这种程度 这两位POWER很接近，就看你喜欢哪一位 你可以给他70分的POWER 也可以给到75 当然80也有 没兴趣 太老了 Q&A 第12有讨论这个问题 可以看看 另外一同来到芝加哥的Mike Olt就悲剧了 小熊早就做好他回不来的打算 ※ 编辑: Zamned 来自: 61.230.93.42 (11/12 20:04) 海贼没有必要这麽做 而且後者的价值远高过Almora ※ 编辑: Zamned 来自: 59.115.129.80 (11/13 12:15)