http://tinyurl.com/5c39ez A second disappointing first-round sweep in the playoffs aside, I still maintain that the Cubs are the best team in the National League. With no gaping holes on either side of the ball, good depth in a lot of places, and the willingness to spend money if need be, I expect the Cubs to once again be one of the best teams in the league. While they were fortunate in some instances, such as Ryan Theriot putting up an easy career-best season, there were also a number of disappointments to balance out the equation, from Hill's strange command issues to Fukudome's unfortunate lack of power (from a HR every 20 at-bats in Japan to a HR in every 50 AB in the US. Samardzija is probably the most interesting projection to watch as he an extremely odd season, going from not being able to do much with AA hitters and then mowing down MLB hitters, so while I wouldn't be surprised if his projection was accurate, I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if it wasn't horrifically wrong. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K CThr EXCELLENT Geovany Soto c 26 .294 .367 .521 139 489 69 144 32 2 25 91 56 113 Av AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jake Fox 1b 26 .244 .293 .434 126 479 58 117 28 0 21 74 25 103 Fr POOR Steve Clevenger* c 23 .256 .300 .344 98 352 31 90 19 0 4 34 23 36 Fr Henry Blanco c 37 .253 .286 .343 45 99 11 25 3 0 2 10 5 20 Av Welington Castillo c 22 .240 .281 .345 97 342 31 82 15 0 7 37 15 74 Vg Koyie Hill# c 30 .224 .280 .348 80 250 25 56 13 0 6 29 19 52 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Geovany Soto c 26 .294 .367 .521 139 489 69 144 32 2 25 91 56 113 Av Derrek Lee 1b 33 .294 .371 .466 123 476 72 140 32 1 16 74 56 95 Av AVERAGE Mark DeRosa 2b 34 .283 .362 .440 135 466 74 132 28 3 13 66 52 92 Av Micah Hoffpauir* 1b 29 .286 .323 .505 87 315 47 90 25 1 14 55 17 47 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Daryle Ward* 1b 34 .271 .359 .436 91 133 15 36 10 0 4 20 18 26 Fr Jason DuBois 1b 30 .254 .315 .459 104 355 42 90 19 0 18 60 28 97 Fr POOR Matt Craig# 1b 28 .258 .327 .404 102 329 37 85 19 1 9 43 31 73 Fr Josh Kroeger* 1b 26 .253 .302 .419 127 454 51 115 26 2 15 63 30 93 Fr Jake Fox 1b 26 .244 .293 .434 126 479 58 117 28 0 21 74 25 103 Av Steve Clevenger* c 23 .256 .300 .344 98 352 31 90 19 0 4 34 23 36 Av Koyie Hill# c 30 .224 .280 .348 80 250 25 56 13 0 6 29 19 52 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Mark DeRosa 2b 34 .283 .362 .440 135 466 74 132 28 3 13 66 52 92 Av AVERAGE Mike Fontenot* 2b 29 .268 .340 .418 136 366 54 98 24 2 9 49 39 69 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Bobby Scales# 2b 31 .266 .336 .394 117 398 54 106 20 2 9 50 39 95 Fr Ryan Theriot ss 29 .285 .353 .352 134 488 70 139 21 3 2 47 50 50 Vg POOR Ronny Cedeno ss 26 .265 .309 .382 116 340 42 90 15 2 7 41 20 65 Av Nate Spears* 2b 24 .240 .304 .333 121 408 52 98 19 2 5 41 33 73 Av Luis Figueroa# 2b 35 .259 .304 .325 62 212 23 55 9 1 1 19 13 19 Av Andres Blanco# ss 25 .257 .287 .304 97 296 23 76 6 1 2 25 11 31 Vg Tony Thomas 2b 22 .226 .271 .350 93 380 46 86 21 1 8 41 22 81 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Aramis Ramirez 3b 31 .289 .362 .520 145 546 84 158 39 3 27 100 56 76 Av VERY GOOD Mark DeRosa 2b 34 .283 .362 .440 135 466 74 132 28 3 13 66 52 92 Vg FAIR Mike Fontenot* 2b 29 .268 .340 .418 136 366 54 98 24 2 9 49 39 69 Av Matt Craig# 1b 28 .258 .327 .404 102 329 37 85 19 1 9 43 31 73 Pr POOR Bobby Scales# 2b 31 .266 .336 .394 117 398 54 106 20 2 9 50 39 95 Fr Ronny Cedeno ss 26 .265 .309 .382 116 340 42 90 15 2 7 41 20 65 Av Luis Figueroa# 2b 35 .259 .304 .325 62 212 23 55 9 1 1 19 13 19 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE Mike Fontenot* 2b 29 .268 .340 .418 136 366 54 98 24 2 9 49 39 69 Fr Bobby Scales# 2b 31 .266 .336 .394 117 398 54 106 20 2 9 50 39 95 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ryan Theriot ss 29 .285 .353 .352 134 488 70 139 21 3 2 47 50 50 Av FAIR Ronny Cedeno ss 26 .265 .309 .382 116 340 42 90 15 2 7 41 20 65 Vg POOR Nate Spears* 2b 24 .240 .304 .333 121 408 52 98 19 2 5 41 33 73 Fr Luis Figueroa# 2b 35 .259 .304 .325 62 212 23 55 9 1 1 19 13 19 Av Andres Blanco# ss 25 .257 .287 .304 97 296 23 76 6 1 2 25 11 31 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Alfonso Soriano lf 33 .280 .340 .519 117 489 81 137 31 1 28 94 40 113 Vg AVERAGE Mark DeRosa 2b 34 .283 .362 .440 135 466 74 132 28 3 13 66 52 92 Av Micah Hoffpauir* 1b 29 .286 .323 .505 87 315 47 90 25 1 14 55 17 47 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daryle Ward* 1b 34 .271 .359 .436 91 133 15 36 10 0 4 20 18 26 Pr FAIR Kosuke Fukudome* rf 32 .270 .357 .400 120 423 62 114 24 2 9 53 59 89 Av Reed Johnson cf 32 .285 .355 .403 94 305 47 87 19 1 5 37 20 59 Vg Mike Fontenot* 2b 29 .268 .340 .418 136 366 54 98 24 2 9 49 39 69 Av Jason DuBois 1b 30 .254 .315 .459 104 355 42 90 19 0 18 60 28 97 Pr Bobby Scales# 2b 31 .266 .336 .394 117 398 54 106 20 2 9 50 39 95 Fr Josh Kroeger* 1b 26 .253 .302 .419 127 454 51 115 26 2 15 63 30 93 Fr POOR Felix Pie* cf 24 .262 .308 .412 140 439 63 115 19 4 13 59 28 84 Vg Jake Fox 1b 26 .244 .293 .434 126 479 58 117 28 0 21 74 25 103 Pr Brad Snyder* cf 27 .239 .298 .416 113 397 48 95 22 3 14 56 31 129 Av Andres Torres# cf 31 .249 .314 .372 107 374 51 93 18 5 6 42 33 89 Vg Tyler Colvin* cf 23 .243 .274 .394 128 515 55 125 27 3 15 66 21 98 Vg Sam Fuld* cf 27 .237 .300 .326 109 405 51 96 20 2 4 39 34 56 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Kosuke Fukudome* rf 32 .270 .357 .400 120 423 62 114 24 2 9 53 59 89 Fr AVERAGE Reed Johnson cf 32 .285 .355 .403 94 305 47 87 19 1 5 37 20 59 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jim Edmonds* cf 39 .243 .334 .425 91 280 37 68 13 1 12 44 39 65 Av FAIR Felix Pie* cf 24 .262 .308 .412 140 439 63 115 19 4 13 59 28 84 Vg Brad Snyder* cf 27 .239 .298 .416 113 397 48 95 22 3 14 56 31 129 Pr POOR Andres Torres# cf 31 .249 .314 .372 107 374 51 93 18 5 6 42 33 89 Av Tyler Colvin* cf 23 .243 .274 .394 128 515 55 125 27 3 15 66 21 98 Av Sam Fuld* cf 27 .237 .300 .326 109 405 51 96 20 2 4 39 34 56 Vg * - Hits Left # - Switch-Hitter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Rich Harden 27 2.37 7 1 17 17 95.0 64 25 8 35 136 Carlos Zambrano 28 3.81 14 10 32 32 201.0 183 85 19 87 156 Ted Lilly* 33 4.03 13 11 32 32 190.0 175 85 26 65 172 Ryan Dempster 32 4.08 11 9 27 27 181.0 174 82 17 73 151 Rich Hill* 29 4.21 8 7 23 23 126.0 115 59 17 61 119 MIDDLE THIRD Sean Marshall* 26 4.65 4 5 26 15 89.0 91 46 13 33 64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jason Marquis 30 4.80 9 11 28 28 163.0 172 87 19 69 95 Randy Wells 26 4.94 6 7 31 16 113.0 126 62 16 36 71 Angel Guzman 27 5.04 2 3 14 9 50.0 53 28 6 22 41 J.R. Mathes* 27 5.11 7 9 26 24 148.0 175 84 19 35 61 Justin Berg 25 5.17 5 8 29 24 127.0 141 73 11 68 53 BOTTOM THIRD Kevin Hart 26 5.29 5 8 36 18 119.0 127 70 18 50 81 Jeff Samardzija 24 5.48 6 9 38 22 133.0 148 81 20 64 68 Adam Harben 25 5.63 5 8 27 17 104.0 112 65 10 75 59 Jason Stanford* 32 5.63 3 6 17 14 80.0 90 50 13 38 46 Mitchell Atkins 23 5.72 7 14 28 27 148.0 164 94 29 55 84 Donald Veal* 24 5.95 5 10 26 26 124.0 137 82 22 69 85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Kerry Wood 32 2.77 4 1 39 0 39.0 31 12 2 14 47 Carlos Marmol 26 2.79 5 2 80 0 87.0 61 27 8 43 106 MIDDLE THIRD Mike Wuertz 30 3.91 3 2 69 0 69.0 64 30 8 30 69 Bobby Howry 35 4.07 6 5 74 0 73.0 75 33 9 17 59 Chad Gaudin 26 4.08 9 7 47 15 128.0 120 58 13 54 117 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Neal Cotts* 29 4.36 2 2 62 2 64.0 63 31 8 29 58 Rocky Roquet 26 4.50 2 2 43 0 54.0 53 27 6 27 41 Jeremy Papelbon* 26 4.56 3 4 35 4 77.0 80 39 9 30 41 BOTTOM THIRD Jon Lieber 39 4.86 3 4 18 7 63.0 73 34 10 9 36 Jose Ascanio 24 4.91 2 2 53 0 77.0 82 42 12 27 52 Carmen Pignatiello* 26 4.91 1 1 51 0 55.0 59 30 7 23 39 Hector Carrasco 39 5.05 3 5 36 1 57.0 59 32 9 22 42 Mike Burns 30 5.12 5 8 38 10 102.0 118 58 16 26 58 Billy Petrick 25 5.63 2 3 20 3 40.0 45 25 7 14 23 Jesse Estrada 25 5.63 4 6 39 7 104.0 121 65 18 37 52 Edward Campusano* 26 5.67 2 4 39 0 54.0 58 34 10 28 40 Gregory Reinhard 25 5.78 4 8 39 12 109.0 120 70 17 56 69 Chad Fox 38 6.43 0 1 8 0 7.0 7 5 2 5 7 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Derrek Lee Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .329 .412 .545 129 499 90 164 39 3 21 92 69 86 145 Mean .294 .371 .466 123 476 72 140 32 1 16 74 56 95 114 Pessimistic (15%) .261 .334 .411 108 418 46 109 25 1 12 57 45 100 91 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Gil Hodges, Bob Watson Player Spotlight - Tyler Colvin Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .270 .306 .466 143 575 75 155 34 5 23 91 29 97 96 Mean .243 .274 .394 128 515 55 125 27 3 15 66 21 98 70 Pessimistic (15%) .219 .248 .333 109 438 33 96 19 2 9 45 15 94 48 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Lloyd Moseby, Rick Manning Player Spotlight - Carlos Zambrano ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.12 17 8 34 34 222 183 77 18 85 192 147 Mean 3.81 14 10 32 32 201 183 85 19 87 156 120 Pessimistic (15%) 4.78 9 11 26 26 158 159 84 20 82 113 96 Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Boddicker, Ken McBride Player Spotlight - Sean Marshall ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.74 6 4 29 17 101 94 42 11 31 77 122 Mean 4.65 4 5 26 15 89 91 46 13 33 64 98 Pessimistic (15%) 5.53 3 4 21 12 70 79 43 12 30 45 83 Top Near-Age Comps: Dave Hamilton, Doug Rau Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More informationis always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3