作者csnthu (当代中国研究中心)
看板China
标题《当代中国讲座系列二》大崩盘或威权复苏？
时间Tue Dec 2 15:46:03 2003
《当代中国讲座系列二》
China's New Leadership: Coming Collapse or Authoritarian Resilience？
大崩盘或威权复苏？对中国新领导人的评估
【主讲人】Prof. Andrew Nathan （黎安友教授）
（哥伦比亚大学政治系主任，东亚研究所前主任）
【时间】2003年12月11日5:00-6:30 PM
【地点】国立清华大学人文社会学院C306室
【演讲简介】
中国经济成长态势备受全球瞩目。她的政治动向也是国内外观察家密切关注的焦点。
中国市场改革二十五年来，经历数度的权力接班与政治危机。自从天安门事件以来，
朝向政治自由化的道路，似乎已经不在中央菁英的日程表上。最近胡锦涛、温家宝等
四代领导人的接班，引发学界与评论界的新争论：究竟中国的新领导人，有无能力处
理潜在或已经浮现的经济社会危机？中共政权有可能崩溃吗？或者，相反的，第四代
如果顺利完成接班，是否代表中共体制将有长期存续更新的能力、甚至产生威权反弹
的现象？
After the Tiananmen crisis in June, 1989, many observers thought that
the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would collapse. Instead,
the regime has proven resilient. The causes of its resilience are complex.
But many of them can be summed up in the concept of institutionalization.
The regime's succession politics are increasingly norm bound. Promotion of
political elites is increasingly meritocratic as opposed to factional.
Institutions within the regime are more differentiated and functionally
specialized than in the past. And the regime has established institutions
for political participation and appeal of grievances that strengthen the
CCP's legitimacy among the public at large. While these developments do not
guarantee that the regime will be able to solve all the challenges that it
faces, they do caution against too-hasty arguments that it cannot adapt and
survive.
【联络方式】助理[email protected] （03）516-5982
【主办单位】国立清华大学当代中国研究中心、社会学研究所中国研究学程合办
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