※ 引述《eertllams (Tree666)》之铭言： By Rohan Cruyff http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks 一篇很有趣的分析Pace vs. Speed的文章 分析结果 大部分都跟大家所知道的相符 像快节奏球队 有 太阳跟尼克 慢节奏球队 有 黄蜂跟超赛 文中很多图表 大家可以迳自前往原始网页参看 只能说统计跟呈现方式很Fancy (难怪科技产业希望工程师懂点统计) 不过这些结果 要如何解释那些球队赢球跟输球 则还无定论 不过文中有个很特别的结果是从DefensiveSpeedIndex里 马刺的防守是 让对方球队在shot clock到之前 最急於出手的 这揪竟是怎样的一个原因呢!? 有趣的文章 小弟手痒翻一下 新手有错请指正 Orz Flight Of The Suns: A New Way To See Speed In The NBA Is pace really the best indicator of how fast (or slow) teams play? Not so. SBNation.com's Rohan Cruyff unveils Speed Index, a metric based on the shot clock that provides a true sense of pace (broken down for offense and defense) for each team in the league. 球队的运作速度真的能以攻防节奏来当作指标吗? 不全然。来自SBNation.com的Rohan Cruyff提出了Speed Index这项指数，根据出手时间提供的真正意义来度量联盟中的每支球 队的运作速度(再细分为进攻和防守两部分)。 Jan 24, 2011 - The "possession" is arguably the single most integral concept of the advanced statistics movement in basketball. Explained brilliantly in 2002’s Basketball on Paper by current Nuggets analyst Dean Oliver, a new possession essentially begins every time the ball switches hands. Its importance in quantifying the sport cannot be overstated. It is the great equalizer for players that inflate their numbers through excessive shooting, teams that amplify their point totals by running up and down the floor, defenses that suppress their conceded points by slowing the game to a crawl, and everything in between. 2011年1月24日-"球权"可以说是在篮球运动的进阶统计数据中唯一最完整的概念。依照现 任金块分析员Dean Oliver於2002年在'Basketball on Paper'这本书上的精辟解释，每一 次新的球权基本上在球由一队转换到另一队後产生。对於防止这项运动的一些量化数据过 於夸大是很重要的。对於那些夸大的滥投出手数，或通过倾於进攻来增加他们分数的球队 ，或是想要拖延时间来减低他们的失分的球队来说这是一个非常好的等化器。 ( Dean Oliver 的 'Basketball on Paper' 和 John Hollinger 的 'Pro Basketball Prospectus' 都是篮球统计数据中的圣经 有兴趣的可以找来看看 另外关於Possesion的部分 请参考 http://0rz.tw/6pEvr 侵权请来信告知 ) The commonly used estimate of team speed, pace factor, derives from the possession statistic. Team pace counts how many possessions a team uses over 48 minutes. And for the most part, it does a great job of quantifying how quickly teams play. If you were to name some of the NBA’s fastest teams off the top of your head, the Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets would probably come to mind. Sure enough, each of those ranks among the league’s top five teams in pace factor. 一般用於评断球队运作速度的--攻防节奏系数--衍生於对球权数的统计结果。攻防节奏是 计算在48分钟比赛中球队所获得的球权数。就大部分方面来说，它在定量一支球队的速度 方面是个不错的指标。如果你想要把你心中认为最快的NBA球队依序列出来的话，太阳，尼 克，勇士也许你也可以把金块列进来。当然根据攻防节奏统计的结果前五名的球队就是上 面列出的五支球队。 But pace factor has its shortcomings. Since the ball doesn’t switch teams on offensive rebounds, a sequence of multiple offensive boards and shot attempts simply counts as a long, drawn out possession. As Henry Abbott has noted at True Hoop, turnovers can also lead to artificially increased "pace," even in the absence of increased speed of play. 但是攻防节奏系数也有不足之处。而因为球权并没有在获得篮板球的队伍有所转换，所以 即使是不断获得进攻篮板和出手机会的过程中，也只会计算为一次长且拖戏的球权。正如 Henry Abbott在True Hoop上表示的，失误也是一种故意增加"节奏"的方式，即使在没有加 快速度的进攻中。 More importantly, shrewd observers will have noticed that the average NBA game is contested by two teams. If one of those teams slogs it out in the half-court on offense and the other looks to push at every opportunity, is it really fair to slap a single number on the game and call it the "pace" of both teams? 更加重要的是，精明的观察者会注意到一般NBA比赛是由两支球队来较量。如果比赛中一支 球队仅通过半场进攻来寻求胜利而另一支球队利用各种机会来进攻，然後列个数据并说这 是球队的节奏，这样真的公平吗? An alternate way of measuring team speed is via the shot clock. Specifically, how much time is left on the clock on average when a team attempts its field goals, and how much remains when an opponent’s attempts go up? 82games.com categorizes all team shots into four groups- 0-10 seconds (clock used), 11-15, 16-20, and 21+. Those numbers can, in turn, be used to develop an alternative method of measuring team pace -- one I’ve dubbed "Speed Index." 衡量球队的速度的替代之道是看出手时间。准确一点的说是，在每次进攻中球队每次出手 後平均所剩下的时间，以及对手做出同样尝试所剩下的时间。82games.com将其依秒数分为 四组—0-10秒，11-15秒，16-20秒和21秒以上。这些分类也可以反过来作为衡量球队攻防 节奏的替代方法—我称之为"速度指数。" Speed Index sets the average league "speed" to 100, with a standard deviation of 15. The higher a team’s number, the faster it plays. Since 82games provides data in those four categories only (and not discrete shot clock values), slight deviations from these values should be expected. Overall, Speed Index provides us with some fascinating points of analysis. Importantly, it can be separated into offensive and defensive components. First up, Offensive Speed Index, or how quickly in the shot clock teams attempt shots. 速度指数将联盟平均速度定为100，标准差是15。排名越高的球队，也就越快。而因为 82games提供的数据仅将它分为四组(同时也不是采用离散统计值)，所以可以预期会有偏差 值出现。整体来说，速度指数提供我们一些有趣的分析结果。重要的是，它可以分为进攻 以及防守两部分。首先，进攻速度指数，或是说出手时间最快的球队。 Offensive Speed Index http://tinyurl.com/4rm9lyk 太阳│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 灰狼│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 溜马│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 尼克│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ↗ 暴龙│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ ≠ ╱ faster 老鹰│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ 黄蜂│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ 超赛│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 篮网│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 活塞│▃▃▃▃▃▃ ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬ 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 (仅列出前後五支球队 其余详见连接) For reference, an Index value of 100 corresponds to approximately 11.4 seconds left on the shot clock. One standard deviation is equivalent to about 0.65 seconds. 提供参考，指数值100大约相当於出手时间剩下11.4秒。一个标准差等同于大约0.65秒。 At first glance, the majority of the order agrees with conventional wisdom about team speed. Phoenix plays fast. New York plays fast. Boston and New Orleans tend to primarily play in the half court. We can more scientifically assess the differences between Speed Index and Pace Factor by plotting them against one another. The next graph plots the difference between team Speed Index and Pace Factor (where Pace is normalized around 100 as well). Click the image for larger text on the team axis. 咋看之下，符合大多数过去关於球队速度的传统思维。太阳速度很快。尼克速度也很快。 超赛和黄蜂主要偏好於半场进攻。通过将速度指数和攻防节奏划在一张图表上来比较我们 可以更加科学化的评估两者的差别。下一张图表列出两者的差别(其中攻防节奏规格化为 100)。点选连接以放大横轴的球队名称。 Speed Index vs. Pace Factor http://tinyurl.com/4h7v3hp 15┐ │ ▃被攻防节奏低估 │ ▌ ▌ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▃ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 5┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 热 火 勇 金 马 │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 火 箭 士 块 刺 0┼─────── ∥──────── │太 拓 溜 湖 暴 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │阳 荒 马 人 龙 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ -5┤ 者 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ -10┤ ▃ ▌ ▌ │ 被攻防节奏高估 ▃ ▌ │ -15┘ (仅列出前後五支球队 其余详见连接) Some of the main takeaways from the above graph: 来自上面图表的一些主要资讯: * As Henry Abbott has often pointed out, Portland's high offensive rebounds and low turnovers mean they don't play nearly as slowly as Pace Factor indicates. Their Speed Index value supports this notion; by Speed Index, they're still in the bottom half of the league, but they're much faster than their Pace lets on. *正如Henry Abbott经常指出的，拓荒者的高进攻篮板和低失误使得他们并不似攻防节奏所 指出的那麽慢。拓荒者的速度指数支持了这一概念；尽管在速度指数列表中拓荒者排在联 盟的後半段，但是他们实际上比攻防节奏结果中指出的来快。 * As fast as Phoenix is by pace factor, possessions/game may not actually capture how fast they play. *虽然在攻防节奏的结果中也显示太阳是支快的球队，然而通过计算每场比赛的球权(攻防 节奏)可能无法确实指出到底太阳有多快。 * San Antonio ranks as the league's most overstated "fast" team.The Spurs rank below league average in shot clock usage but above league average in pace factor. The reason for this disparity is covered next. *在进攻节奏结果中马刺是联盟中最被夸大"快"的球队。在出手时间使用中(速度指数)马刺 是低於联盟的(意较为慢)但是在进攻节奏的结果中却显示高於联盟平均。关於这部分的差 异下面会做出解释。 As noted earlier, teams play different speeds on offense and defense. The next chart is the defensive counterpart of Offensive Speed Index. How quickly do opponents shoot in the shot clock against NBA teams? 正如之前说的，球队的进攻和防守会有不同的速度。下一个图表防守速度指数是进攻指数 的相对应部分。防守速度指数就是说在防守时，对手出手的所需的时间。 Defensive Speed Index http://tinyurl.com/69uw68d 黄蜂│▃▃▃▃ 山猫│▃▃▃▃▃ 魔术│▃▃▃▃▃▃ ↖ 公牛│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼ 公鹿│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼ slower ≠ ＼ 尼克│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼ 老鹰│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼ 湖人│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 勇士│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 马刺│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬ 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 (仅列出前後五支球队 其余详见连接) At this juncture, a number of intriguing details present themselves. First of all, while a number of elite defensive teams force opponents to shoot late in the shot clock (New Orleans, Orlando, Chicago, Milwaukee), many great defensive teams do not do this (Miami, San Antonio, Lakers, Boston). In fact, there is not a statistically significant relationship between defensive efficiency and defensive speed index. 在这里，呈现一些耐人寻味的细节。首先，虽然有部分防守强悍的球队能够让对手在出手 前消耗大量进攻时间(黄蜂，魔术，公牛，公鹿)，但是其他防守强大的球队却没有出现这 样的统计结果(热火，马刺，湖人，超赛)。事实上，在防守效率和防守速度指数两者之间 并没有在统计上有显着的关联。 But the low speeds of certain teams offer explanations as to their defensive footprints. The New Orleans Hornets, the league’s slowest defensive team, utilize heavy doses of zone defense and aggressive rotations to force extra passes and minimize opponent drives. This naturally extends the time in the shot clock at which opponents finally attempt shots. 但是一些特定球队低的防守速度指数可以以他们的防守策略做出解释。黄蜂，联盟中防守 速度指数最低的球队，利用了大量的区域联防和积极轮转协防来迫使对手做出更多传球和 减少运球。这理所当然造成对手在出手前消耗大量进攻时间。 The craziest data point, of course, belongs to the San Antonio Spurs. Opponents shoot earlier in the shot clock against the Spurs than against any other team in the league. It’s difficult to specify exactly why this is. The Spurs are a great defensive rebounding team and thus do not give up many put-backs early in new shot clocks. They’re about league average in fast break points allowed. They foul less often than any other team in the NBA and thus aren’t sending opponents to the line in penalty situations. Moreover, the Spurs rank in the top five in lowest field goal percentage allowed on shots taken early in the shot clock. 当然，最怪的数据就是马刺的部分了。相较于面对联盟中的其他队伍，对手在面对马刺时 是最急着出手的。想要指出为何发生这种情况的原因是很困难的。因为马刺是一支拥有出 色防守篮板数据的球队因此并不会让对手有太多机会得到进攻篮板且在新的进攻时间中快 速的完成补篮的动作。马刺让对手取得快攻的分数大约是联盟的平均值。而他们的犯规次 数是联盟中最低的因此也不会让对手有太多机会站上罚球线。此外，那些面对马刺的快速 出手的命中率位列联盟中最低的5位之中。 So what gives? Your guess is as good as mine. But the overall point is San Antonio’s increased pace this year is largely a function of defensive speed index as opposed to offensive speed index. 这说明了什麽?你猜得和我一样好。今年马刺增加攻防节奏的最大原因归于防守速度指数和 进攻指数的对立。 We can extend the question "is a team’s speed driven more by their offense or their defense?" to the rest of the league as well. 我们可以用同样的问题"一支球队的速度更多是由进攻还是防守决定?"来讨论联盟中的其他 球队。 Speed Differential http://tinyurl.com/657mpgn 30┐ │ ▃ │ ▌决定於进攻 20┤ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▃ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▃ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 湖 公 勇 马 魔 │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 人 牛 士 刺 术 0┼─────── ∥──────── │灰 太 篮 溜 热 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │狼 阳 网 马 火 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▃ ▌ ▌ ▌ -20┤ ▌ ▌ │ ▃ ▌ │ 决定於防守 -30┘ (仅列出前後五支球队 其余详见连接) Orlando’s team speed is more driven by its defense than any other team in the league. (In other words, they’re considered a "slow" team by pace factor and speed index due entirely to their defense). On the flip side, Minnesota’ s and Phoenix’s team speeds are driven entirely by their speedy offenses. 联盟中最偏向由防守来决定速度球队的是魔术。(换句话说，他们在攻防节奏和速度指数中 被视为"慢"的球队，全然归因於他们的防守)。在另一方面，灰狼和太阳的速度完全由快速 的进攻来主导。 ＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊ One common talking point among commentators is the idea of "controlling tempo." Measuring team speed as disparate quantities on the offensive and defensive ends allows us to more accurately determine which teams control tempo and how they do it. 评论者之间经常讨论的一个焦点就是"控制节拍"的概念。通过分别计算进攻端和防守端的 数据来衡量球队的速度让我们可以更加精确的确定哪支球队控制了'节奏'以及如何做到。 Teams like the Suns try to dominate game tempo, but it's primarily an offensive phenomenon. We don't have game by game variance data, but the Suns' complete lack of defensive success suggests that while they do succeed in controlling game speed on one side of the ball, they have little say on what happens on the other. The Spurs, in many ways, appear to be the anti-Suns. For mysterious, unexplained reasons, they rapidly drive up defensive tempo while maintaining sub-league average offensive speed. Finally, a team like New Orleans dictates, on a nightly basis, the tempo on both ends of the floor. 像是太阳这样想要试着支配球赛节拍的球队，根本上只是一种进攻现象而已。我们并没有 每场球赛的样本变异数，但是太阳完全缺乏防守很好的暗示了当他们成功通过进攻来掌控 球赛速度时，他们在另一端的表现是不足够的。马刺，多方面，都表现出和太阳相反。因 为神秘而不明的原因，马刺能够在维持低於联盟平均的进攻速度的同时加快防守的节拍。 最终来说，黄蜂掌握了每晚比赛中进攻和防守两端的节拍。 -- 马刺 : 年轻人就是年轻人太冲动了 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ -- 翻完了 我也不是很懂 看起来是另外一种评估球队速度的方法 有错请指正 Orz 祝各位板友 新年快乐 万事如意 心想事成 财源滚滚~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.16.132 ※ 编辑: sinrong 来自: 122.117.16.132 (02/03 00:07)