新闻出处(必填):http://goo.gl/2aPZrq 作者: dangercart I see a lot of comments in a lot of places about our cap space and the free agents we could pursue. Those comments are usually followed by the standard back-and-forth on if the player would fit; if they would fit into the "Celtics Way" and if they would fit with Rondo or Sully, or into coach Stevens's system. The problem is that I don't see enough discussion on if they would fit into our cap space. Which is a problem, because we aren't going to have any cap space. I mean that... we aren't going to have ANY cap space. 我在许多地方看到很多评论──关於我们的薪资空间以及可以追求的自由球员，那些评论 通常都是在那些可以适合的球员间来往：如果它们适合C's的风格或是与RR跟Sully搭配、 或是Brad的战术系统；问题是我看不太到关於适合我们薪资空间的评论，而那却是个重点 ，因为我们并不会拥有任何薪资空间──我的意思是，我们将不会有一丁点的薪资空间。 It's easy to look at the contracts we have next season and do some quick math and think we could maybe get enough space to make a run at Gordon Hayward. From there you can make the leap to putting together an offer for Carmelo Anthony. Hey, maybe he'd take a slight discount if we got Kevin Love first and... no. Those things are not happening. The moves we make this offseason will be via the draft and/or via trade. It's extremely unlikely that there will be any free agents signed for more than $5,305,000. 我们可以很容易地看着薪资表并做点简单数学，然後说明年也许会有足够空间去追逐像 黑娃这样的球员，也许可以跳跃的说提供一个价码给甜瓜，嘿，也许他会接受些许的降薪 如果我们先得到爱......不，这些事情并不会发生，这个休赛季的动作要嘛是选秀要嘛是 交易，要签下任何价码高於$5,305,000的自由球员都是非常不可能的。 Let's do some math (math is fun) to figure out why: 我们来做点算数﹝数学粉好玩滴﹞来看看为什麽： The salary cap for next season is estimated to be about $62 million dollars. It won't be exactly that but in the end a few dollars isn't going to matter so let's take that. We'll also say we're going to have the fifth worst record in the league and the Nets will send us the 18th pick in the draft. 下赛季的薪资帽粗估会在六千两百万美元，当然不是完全精确但实际的零头也没甚麽要紧 ，所以就先这样算，并先预测我们将落在第五顺位然後篮网将送来第十八顺位。 2014 Commitments 2014年休赛季仍有的保障合约 PLAYER SALARY --- Rajon Rondo $12,909,090 Gerald Wallace $10,105,855 Jeff Green $9,200,000 Brandon Bass $6,900,000 Joel Anthony $3,800,000 Vitor Faverani $2,090,000 Kelly Olynyk $2,075,760 Jared Sullinger $1,424,520 --- TOTAL $44,705,225 That right there is the lowest we can get our salary commitments without giving away draft picks to get another team to take a player, paying someone to not play for us and hurting our cap sheet in future, or convincing Joel Anthony to pull a "Ryan Dempster" and go on sabbatical for unknown reasons. Now, you may look at that and think "GREAT!" we've got $18 million in cap space. Unfortunately it's not that easy. 在不签进任何新秀以及不提供任续约、以及不给付任何在未来会伤害我们薪资空间的情况 下的底限就这样了，这甚至包括说服JA去执行像Ryan Dempster那样原因不明的合约跳脱， 现在你也许会说：「太棒了！我们将拥有一千八百万的薪资空间！」但其实没这麽简单。 Roster Cap Holds 轮值球员薪资限制 At the bare minimum, the league makes you fill twelve roster spots on your cap sheet. We only have eight players in the above list so even if we get rid of every one of our other assets and obligations, which I'll get to in a minute, the league would add four "roster holds" of $507k each. That would drop our theoretical caps space from $17.3M down to $15.3M. People might throw out the fanciful idea of Melo taking $14M to play in Miami; he's not taking an $8M/year discount to come to Boston. 最少，联盟规定最低的球员数量为十二位，就算我们摆脱任何一个资产以及义务，上面也 只有八位球员，而在这边，联盟将会加上四个「轮值限制」﹝我不太清楚这边的翻法﹞， 每个将是$507000，那将会将我们理论上的薪资空间由17.3M降到15.3M，人们也许会幻想 甜瓜接受14M一年去为热火打球，但他可不会为了C's接受8M的降价。 Free Agent Cap Holds 自由球员薪资限制 To even get to $15.3M in space we'd have to renounce our free agents, too. We have a big pile of cap holds from long-gone players (I'm looking at you, Roshown McLeod) that we could renounce with no consequences but it might not be that easy when it comes to Avery Bradley and Jerryd Bayless. Renouncing a player means you don't have their Bird Rights and you can't play the sign-and-trade game with them. If we're opening cap space to use on a bigger player, it's a good bet renouncing these players means they're gone. 就算有了15.3M的空间，我们仍必须放弃签进受限球员；我们有一个关於早已离开的球员的 疮疤﹝我就是在说你，Roshown McLeod﹞﹝这个人在01-02跟C's签了一笔15M的合约，并且 立刻伤退﹞我们大可乾脆的放弃，但遇到AB以及JB的话这可不是这麽容易；宣布放弃签约 权代表放弃他们的鸟权，而且你也不能进行先签後换的操作，如果我们开放薪资空间去追 逐更大的明星，放弃权利会是一个不错的赌注，这同时也代表让他们离开。 For Bradley we could always extend a qualifying offer and rescind it if we want the cap space but if someone else comes in and makes him an offer that option comes off the table. Any sign-and-trade would be to a team over the cap (a team under wouldn't need our help) so we'd have to take back salary in that move, too. 对於AB而言，我们随时可以给出一份延长合约，并在希望解放空间时宣布撤销，但如果有 人对他提出报价时这个选项就不存在，任何超过上限的球队都必须透过先签後换﹝当然 低於下限的球队则否﹞，所以我们也必须扣掉这部分的薪资空间。 Basically, getting to even $15.3M in space means letting both our established shooting guards walk, but so be it. 基本上，挤出15.3M的空间就代表让我们已确立的两位SG走人，但就这样吧。 Non-guaranteed contracts 不保证合约 You may have noticed the table up above doesn't have Phil Pressey or Chris Johnson. Waiving them only clears us about $700k in cap space because they get replaced by those roster holds but if we're going to do this, let's go all out and let them walk. 你也许会注意到上面并不包含小PP以及CJ的合约，释出这两位只会空出0.7M的空间，因为 这部分会被上述的轮值限制取代，但我们就这样干吧，散散去。 Draft Holds 选秀限制 Now it's going to get difficult. First round draft picks are assigned a cap hold for the rookie scale amount. A team with the fifth worst record will have an average cap hold of $3,187,692 (multiply the odds of each possible draft slot by the scale amount and add them together) and the 18th pick has a hold of $1,325,600. In order to get rid of those holds we would have to trade those picks for NOTHING this year. Trading for players just adds their salaries and trading for different picks adds those holds. We'd have to trade high picks in this draft for unknown picks in future ones. This isn't happening. These holds equal about $4.5M so let's cut our theoretical cap space down to $11.8M, even with letting AB, Bayless, Pressey and Johnson walk for nothing. 现在开始会变得困难了，第一轮选秀将占去一部份的薪资空间，前五顺位平均将花掉$3.1M 的薪资空间，而第十八顺位则是约1.3M，为了清出这部分空间我们将无条件的交易掉他们 ，如果交易到任何球员或选秀都将占掉相对应的空间，我们必须将高顺位选秀权去交易未 来那些未知的选秀；当然这不会发生，所以这大约会占掉4.5M的薪资，所以整体空间来到 11.8M──尽管这是让AB、JB、CJ、小PP散散去的结果。 That figure is the MOST we could easily get to without just giving away assets that are clearly ours. You can dump the Nets pick if you want but you only get to around $13M in that scenario. What are we doing with $11-13M in cap space? Are we really going to chase after Gordon Hayward if it means walking away from any hope of brining back AB or playing in a sign-and-trade and also cutting Johnson and Pressey loose? Maybe you can make an offer in the $11M range and keep CJ and Phil but, well, why? What does an $11M free agent do for this team? We've been trying to dump Green and his contract is "only" for $9M/season. None of the Heatles are coming here and we aren't getting Melo for anything like what we can open up so why even start down this path, especially when there are further costs of doing it... 这份估算是在不给出那些明显是我们自己的资产下所得到的，你可以丢出篮网的十八顺位 签并只得到1.3M的空间，但我们打算拿11-13M的空间去做甚麽？我们真的要去追逐黑娃 这样的球员吗？尽管这代表放弃签回AB或是来个先签後换的机会？也许可以丢出一个11M的 合约并留下CJ跟小PP，但是，外？一个11M的球员能干甚麽？我们已经试过交易掉小绿而他 也才9M／一年，没有一个降薪抱大腿的人﹝原文Heatles我想这样翻是最贴切= =﹞要过来 ，而我们也没有要得到甜瓜甚麽的，何必走上这条不归路呢？尤其这样做会在未来造成 损害...... Trade Exceptions 交易特例 To even get to that $11-13M range we'd have to ditch our trade exceptions. We currently have three trade exceptions worth about $12.6M in total. These count against the cap. In order to free up cap space we would have to renounce them. The Pierce exception expires a few days into free agency but if we were to use it the player we bring in (Omer Asik is still the most likely use) would count against the cap and eat up the majority of that space. The Courtney Lee TPE extends well into next season and would have to be renounced, too. TPEs are not as big a deal as some people make them out to be (Bill Simmons) because they usually just expire but they do have some value and we'd have to give them up. 我懒得翻了= =，反正是说要清出空间就要放弃手中的所有TE，但其实TE也没啥价值， 对很多人而言那就只是拿来解放薪资空间的而已。 Keith Bogans That $11-13M also means waiving Keith Bogans. The Cavs traded $6M in waivable contract named Andrew Bynum to Chicago and got Luol Deng! Now, Deng isn't a world beater but he's a legit starter on even a very good team. Keith Bogans is a more flexible version of that Bynum contract. You can package him with any player, which you can't do with a TPE, or just sell him outright for a draft pick to a team looking to dump salary. As soon as this season ends his contract is an actual, valuable asset in the crazy world of the NBA CBA. 那个11-13M的空间同时也代表要释出Bogans，而骑士队这季才用Bynum那6M的非保障约去 交易到Loul Deng！当然他不是甚麽举世无双的豪杰，但他就算是在非常好的球队也是个 合格先发，Bogans对比Bynum的合约更有弹性，你可以把他跟任何球员打包，或是单纯把 他拿去跟任何一个想清空间的球队换签，一但这季他的合约到期，这将是在新版CBA下一个 非常有价值的资产。 The MLE and BAE 中产条约与双年特例 A team that goes under the cap for even a minute loses the Mid-level Exception (MLE) and Bi-annual Exception (BAE). Instead they get the smaller Room Mid-level (RME) if they end up going back above the salary cap. That's a trade-off of about $5M in cap flexibility 低於薪资帽的球队也将失去这两个条款，取而代之的则是RME﹝小中产﹞，如果重新超过 上限，将可用交易带来大约5M的薪资弹性。 TL;DR 给直接END的您： To re-cap, for the Celtics to make even enough cap space to make an offer to just Gordon Hayward (forget the guys that even matter in this league) that Utah probably wouldn't match we'd have to: 重新复习一下，，如果C's为了清出足够的薪资空间去对黑娃报价，我们必须： Give up our rights to Avery Bradley, including the chance to sign-and-trade him 放弃AB，包括先签後换的权力。 Give up our rights to Jerryd Bayless 放走贝勒爷。 Give up our trade exceptions for Paul Pierce, Courtney Lee, and the tiny one for Fab Melo 放弃三个TE。 Give up the flexible trade chip that is Keith Bogans's super-expiring contract 放弃Bogans的无敌到期合约。 Convert the MLE ($5.305M) plus the BAE ($2.077M) into just the RME (2.732M) 将中产以及双年条款转换为小中产。 Possibly waive Phil Pressey and Chris Johnson 放弃小PP与CJ。 Possibly sell the Nets pick for some future pick(s) 可能卖出18顺位签。 And then we'd have to pay that player on a long-term contract and figure out a way to fill in the rest of the roster with just the RME and minimum contracts to work with. 而後我们要开出一张长约给我们追逐的自由球员，然後想办法用仅剩的资源去填满名单。 This would be a ridiculous thing to do. It makes much more sense to intentionally stay above the cap. We would maintain the flexibility of our useful contracts (AB's RFA and Bogans waivable), our TPEs and our contract exceptions. Playing in the trade market makes much, much, MUCH more sense than even thinking about free agency, even after making a big trade. 这将是一件荒妙的事，刻意的去逼近上限将是更合理的选择，我们将保留手中那皆有弹性 的合约、以及各种特例，在交易市场中动作将比追逐自由市场更加更加的合理──尽管在 做出了一笔巨大的交易之後。 And that's why we're going to trade Sullinger, Bass, Bogans and picks for Kevin Love then take Omer Asik into our TPE, not worry about Melo or Hayward and go win the Atlantic Division next season before pushing on for greater things in 2016 when cap space (and more good draft picks) are both really in play. It's that or just make our pick and roll forward as-is. 而这也是为什麽我们将交易Sully、Bass、Bogans以及选秀权去换来Love﹝是作者在YY不是 我﹞然後用TPE去换来Asik﹝才不要﹞，别再去想甜瓜或黑娃了，然後直接赢下分组冠军 ﹝算了吧﹞，并在2016年做出更伟大的事蹟──那时将有着真正的薪资空间以及一堆选秀 权，要嘛这样不然就是乖乖选秀并往前迈进吧！ ====== 心得：本来没有要翻这篇，现在想想让大家知道球队薪资现况也好；总而言之光是要同时 续约AB、JB、KH以及签下新秀并保留小PP跟CJ就已经很吃紧了，现在处於筹码一堆但不易 操纵的阶段，就让我们期待伟大的交易吧！ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.185.51.107 我脑袋想着念起来一样就打出来了XDDD ※ 编辑: NLchu 来自: 111.185.51.107 (03/16 09:59)