PS. 这篇是分析有哪些队伍会想要再2010年来捞软豆的，文有点长，不看也没关系XD 新闻出处(必填):http://tinyurl.com/lgz9zn 作者:Zach Lowe Now that most of the chips of fallen and the league has estimated the 2010-11 salary cap at somewhere between $50 million and $54 million (if you believe that’s not a negotiating ploy), we can begin sorting out which teams will have enough cap space after next season to offer Rajon Rondo a realistic free agent deal. In doing this, I assumed that Rondo will have another very good season in 2010, and that he’ll be looking for approximately $10 million per season to bolt the C’s. (Remember, Boston will be able to offer him more than anyone else under the league’s collective bargaining rules, and they’ ll be able to match any offer another team makes). 现在2010-2011最有可能的球队薪资上限会落在50M~54M，我们可以开始分析哪些队伍有 那个能力来抢软豆。假设软豆在接下来的一季打得不错，而且他可能会争取接近10M的 价格。(记住，超塞可以根据劳资协议来提供比其他队多的薪水，也可以去Match其他队的 出价。) THE QUICK, ONE-SENTENCE CONCLUSION: The Celtics have very little competition for Rondo, as most of the small number of teams with the cap space to sign him have entrenched point guards or other priorities. Still, there are a few teams out there to worry about. 一句话总结：超塞只有一点点的竞争者来抢软豆，当然还是有一些队伍需要注意。 I assumed a cap on the high side of the league’s early estimates (about $54 million) and eliminated any team who was already within about $8 million or $10 million of that number. I also eliminated teams whose listed cap figures for 2011 are a bit unrealistic. Portland, for instance, has about $19 committed for 2011, but that doesn’t include extensions for Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge or Travis Outlaw’s $8 million cap hold. 我假设薪资上限接近54M，以及排除那些无法出8-10M的价格的队伍，我也把拓荒者排除。 In general, I also assumed any low-level player with an option is going to exercise it, and that any team with an option on a mediocre/low-level player will renounce that player completely. 一般来说，我也假设有些low-level的球员会执行他们的一些选择权，以及那些有选择权 的队伍会放弃一些中产或是低产的球员。 Note: All salary info taken from DraftExpress, Sham Sports and news reports of recent signings. (全部的薪资资讯是从DraftExpress(http://www.draftexpress.com/ ) Sham Sports(http://tinyurl.com/46qpn4 )以及最近的签约新闻) HERE ARE THE TEAMS LEFT STANDING: ‧ Chicago: The Bulls have about $35 million or so committed to their 2011 roster, assuming they renounce their rights to Brad Miller, Jerome James and Tim Thomas–and I think that’s a safe assumption. To stick at this figure, though, they’ll also have to renounce Ty Thomas instead of tendering him a $6.3 million qualifying offer. Of course, the Bulls already have a young point guard, don’t they? They’ve also got ambitions of getting in on the Wade-Bosh bidding. ．公牛：他们在2010-11的薪资有大约35M是已经用掉的，假设他们没继续与大米，Jerome James以及TT(这我们知道已经买断了)签约--我觉得这是保守的假设。而且他们还得不去 算Tyrus Thomas的6.3M的QO。当然公牛其实不太需要PG，他们早有了年轻的玫瑰不是？ 而且他们的企图也是在Wade跟Bosh身上。 不担心。 ‧ Cleveland: The Cavs will have about $24 million or so committed in 2011, assuming they renounce both Z-man and the Big Second Banana and find a taker for Delonte West’s partially unguaranteed $4.5 million deal. How likely is that combination of three things? Ask John Krolik or Brian Windhurst. Of course, Cleveland’s focus after next season is probably not going to be on Rajon Rondo. ．骑士：2011年的roster他们会有24M被锁死，假设他们不算大Z以及欧肥，以及不去履行 West的4.5M的部份合约。当然，骑士不会要软豆。 不担心。 ‧ Los Angeles Clippers: The Clips helped themselves immensely by getting rid of Zach Randolph ($17.3 million in 2011) in exchange for Quentin Richardson’ s expiring deal. Les Clips have about $34 million committed in 2011, assuming they renounce Marcus Camby and Richardson and exercise options on Eric Gordon and Al Thorton (all basically no-brainers). Again, though, the Clippers have an entrenched point guard in Baron Davis. If they manage to get rid of him, they could become serious Rondo players. ．快艇：快艇把肥约Zach给去掉(2011年是17.3M)，得到的是QR。他们的薪资在2011年会是 34M被用掉的，假设不包含Camby跟Richardson，以及Gordon跟Thorton执行球员选择权。 Baron Davis已经是当家控卫了，要是管理阶层想要交易他(13M)，那才会比较要重视的。 不担心。 ‧ Atlanta: The Hawks are at the very edge of our salary range here, as they’ ll be up to at least $42 million once you figure in the Mike Bibby and Zaza Pachulia extensions plus rookie deals for their draft picks. They’d also have to renounce Joe Johnson to get to $42 million; if they don’t, his cap hold puts them well over the limit. ．老鹰：他们的薪资与我们的差不多，大概42M已经先用掉了。而且他们还要不算JJ的才 会是42M，总之，不担心。 ‧ Miami: Probably the most dangerous team on this list. The Heat have literally nothing committed to 2011 beyond Dwyane Wade, who may or may not opt out of his $17 million-plus deal for that season. Other than that, it’s all team options (only two of which they are certain to pick up–Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers) and James Jones’s unguaranteed deal. Of course, this could all change if Pat Riley caves and takes on some ill-advised long-term contract. But if the Heat don’t sign Wade, Chris Bosh or LeBron James (or perhaps even if they do sign one of them), they could come after Rondo hard. ．热火：可能是最危险的一个竞争队伍。热火在2011年没啥约，D.Wade可能会跳或不跳 他的17M。剩下的都是球队的选择权以及James Jones的不保证约(他们可能会留下Beasley 以及Chalmers)。要是热火不追典伟、龙王或是大帝(或是签其中一个)，那有可能来追软 豆。 有点担心。 ‧ New York: Another strong candidate if the premier 2010 free agents spurn them. The Knicks have about $18.2 million committed to Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries (hi, Isiah!), plus $5.5 million in team options for Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Toss in a couple of rookie deals and assume they re-sign either David Lee or Nate Robinson (but not both), and we’re approaching $35 million (especially if they choose Lee over Robinson). If they grab Robinson, too, the Knicks may price themselves out of the LeBron-Wade-Bosh derby and have to settle for someone on the next tier…like Rondo. ．尼克：另一个强大的竞争者。18.2M给了Eddy Curry以及Jared Jeffries(嗨，Isiah)， 加上Gallinari与Chandler的5.5M球队选择权。要是他们从David Lee或跳豆中选一个， 而他们有相当多的钱去抢大帝、典伟或是龙王，以及要是达到他们的目标，他们很有可 能再去抢一个，像是软豆。 (我的os：要是依照尼克花钱不手软的感觉....很危险XDD) ‧ New Jersey: The Nets only have about $18 million committed in 2011, assuming they decide not to exercise team options on Yi, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Sean Williams; renounce restricted free agents Josh Boone and Jarvis Hayes; and renounce a bunch of cap holds. But the Nets already have Devin Harris set at the PG spot. ．篮网：2011年只有用了18M，假设他们不签易，Douglas-Roberts以及S.Williams；放弃 Boone以及Hayes。 不过他们有小哈了，所以不担心。 ‧ Houston: The Rockets are creeping over $40 million for 2011 between their guaranteed deals (Yao, Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza for about $32 million total), cheap-ish team options for quality guys (about $7.3 million combined for Chuck Hayes, Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry) and whatever rookie deals remain on the books from among the three second-rounders Houston selected in the ‘09 draft. They’d also have to renounce Tracy McGrady, Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola and Brent Barry to reach this number, and, personally, I’d like at least two of those guys on my team going forward (Scola and Lowry). So the Rockets are probably out. ．火箭：2011年他们已经有40M用上了(光Yao,8d2以及高以爱就有32M了)，剩下的是 一些有球队选择权的球员(约7.3M，Chuck Hayes,小AB以及Landry)以及一些09年选上的人 。他们也要放弃踢咩、Lowry、Scola以及B.Barry。所以火箭大概是不担心。 ‧ Oklahoma City: The Thunder are a bit over $30 million in guaranteed deals for 2010-11, assuming Nenad Krstic elects to take his $5.8 million player option (duh). In theory, this leaves room for a run at Rondo, but: a) the Thunder appear committed to Russell Westbrook at point guard; and b) Kevin Durant and Jeff Green will be restricted free agents after the 2011 season, so it’s not like the Thunder are going to be tossing around money after the 2010 season unless they want to go well over the luxury tax later. ．雷霆：30M已经用了，其中不包括Kristic(用选择权放弃5.8M)。理论上，这是可以去抢 软豆的。但是 a)雷霆已经有Russell Westbrook b)雷帝以及Jeff Green将在2011变成FA… 故雷霆应该不太会去追软豆，除非他们想缴豪华税。 不担心。 ‧ Minnesota: The ultimate “in theory” team, since the Wolves will have a ton of cap space if they renounce all of their cap holds and team options (except for Kevin Love). But Minny already has a fairly well-documented logjam at point guard. Kaaaaahhhhhhnnnnnn!!!! (Sorry). ．灰狼：这不用讲了，不担心。 ‧ Sacramento: The Kings have about $40 million already committed in 2011 once rookie deals are factored in, and the guys at Cowbell Kingdom have already thrown Rondo’s name out there as someone the Kings could/should pursue after next season. The Kings could be a promising team if Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes continue to progress. But unless they can get rid of Beno Udrih’s awful deal, they’ll have Udrih, Evans and Sergio Rodriguez at the PG spot–provided they hang onto Rodriguez, who will be a restricted free agent after next season. So it’s unclear at this point how Rondo would fit in Sacto. ．国王：2011年国王将有40M已经被用上了，但是他们有想要软豆的念头。但是除非国王 要先处理掉Beno Udrih的约，要不他们会有Udrih,Evans以及Sergio Rodriguez卡在PG。 所以如果要软豆的话，那也是颇奇怪的感觉。不担心 So, am I missing any team out there with a realistic shot to make a run at Rondo? The only one I can think of is Phoenix, but only if the Suns let Steve Nash go (which is reportedly unlikely) and rebuild in a way that doesn’t involve taking on enormous salaries from Golden State. 讲到这里，我有没有漏讨论到的队伍？我唯二可以想到的是太阳队跟勇士队，但是除非太 阳要放掉Nash(这不太可能)，以及正在重建的勇士队(他要追谁倒是比较广的)。 If I haven’t missed an obvious suitor or two, the Celtics are in a pretty strong negotiating position, considering how many free agents will hit the market in 2010, how few teams have significant cap room and how few of those teams have a need for a point guard. 要是我没有漏掉明显的竞争对手，考虑到2010年的庞大FA市场，有多少球队有多的空间、 有多少球队需要PG，超塞算是占有主动权的。 I think the odds are pretty good that Rondo signs his next deal with Boston– unless the Celtics prefer otherwise. 我可以比较相信超塞能够续签软豆，除非超塞有其他打算。 PS. 软豆有好几场比赛都有着代表性的数据，会想拿大约真的不怎麽意外。 考虑到2011年要重签队上的大老，但是也别忘了注意软豆。 -- ███ ███ █ █ ███ ██▎ ███ ██ █▂▂ █▎█ ██▎ ███ █▆▂ █▆█ ▍█▋ ██▆ ▊█▎ █▆▆ ██ █▂█ ███ ▊█▎ ██▆ █▊█ █▂█ ▍█▋ ██▆ ▊██ ▆▆█ ██ ███ █▎█ ▊██ ██▆ R by ωaterζantasy --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.141.47.145 ※ 编辑: rayensighner 来自: 220.141.47.145 (07/16 03:24)