※ 引述《solomon8355 (mon.)》之铭言： : 希望有那位高手可以帮我分析这篇文章 谢谢 : Mission Impossible? All Eyes On Danny Ainge : By: Elrod Enchilada : RealGM.com Writer : 我先翻译一半= =多到哭爸... 顺便帮你缩网: http://0rz.tw/Xqhfd : When the Celtics were eliminated in the second round of the NBA playoffs, it merely answered the question “when,” not “if.” Without KG, without the : underappreciated Leon Powe, with a bench made up of people who could not get : in the rotation a year ago, and with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen a year older, : this was a heroic team playing on fumes. Had the Cs somehow defeated Orlando, : the picture against Cleveland likely would have been ugly. : Now all attention turns immediately to the future, the near future. This is : Danny Ainge’s prime time, his playoffs. Can the Celtics win the 2010 NBA : title with the current roster? What can Danny do this off-season to improve : the roster? 当超赛在季後赛第二轮被淘汰时 问题仅仅只是"何时"而不是"是否"(会被淘汰) 少了KG和李阿炮 PP和雷枪又老了一岁 但全队上下仍充满着不畏艰难的气氛 就算打赢魔术了 对上骑士後果也将不堪设想 所以现在把焦点放在未来 这是DA他的主要时光和季後赛 超赛能以现在的阵容拿下明年的总冠军吗? DA能趁球季结束时做些什麽吗? : Before answering these questions, a little context is necessary. LeBron James : is 24 and Dwight Howard is 23. Their teams are going to be powerhouses next : year and for the next half-decade. There are other teams in the east that are : improving. Even if Danny fields a very strong team, even if he does his job : brilliantly, he may have trouble just getting to the Eastern Conference : Finals, even the second round of the playoffs. The bar is very high. The Cs : now are in the situation faced by the superb Sidney Moncrief Milwaukee Bucks : teams of the early 1980s: no matter how well they played the Celtics and : Sixers were always a tad better. Had that Bucks team been assembled in the : late 70s, it might have won two or three titles. In the early 80s it got lost : in the shuffle. That could well be the Cs fate for the next two or three : years. 开始回答这些问题之前 有些背景要先提 LBJ现在24岁 魔兽23岁 他们在未来6年内将会一年比一年更强大 其他东区球队也正在进步 就算DA组成了强队 就算他干的再棒 可能还是会在东区冠军赛中出现问题 超赛目前状况就像是1980年代的公鹿一样 不论他们再努力 最後总是输给塞尔提克和76人那麽一点 没错 当时70年代组成的公鹿也许可以拿下2~3座总冠军 但是80年代早期就已经瓦解了 这将会有可能会是超赛未来2~3年的命运 : So if the goal is to actually defeat Cleveland and Orlando and the other : rising teams, not simply win 54 games and make it a round or two in the : playoffs, Danny has his work cut out for him. As we learned this year, he : will need more than a little luck. 如果是要打败骑士 魔术 和其他正在兴起的球队的话 那事情不单单只是拿下例行赛54胜和闯个两轮而已 加上今年学到的教训 DA需要的不仅单单是运气了 : There are six big questions that face the current roster, which I present in : descending order of importance. 接下来对於目前的6个问题 将依照其重要性往下排列: : 1A. Can Kevin Garnett return at 100 percent, and what is Kevin Garnett’s 100 : percent at age 33? KG能在100趴状态下回来吗?而他33岁的100趴又是什麽样子? : As has been amply demonstrated, teams that win NBA titles and teams that even : reach the Finals generally have a superstar, a player who would rank among : the top 5 players in the game leading them. Look at the final four in 2009: : LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Chauncey Billups are the best : players on their respective teams. The first three are among the five best : players in the league and do rank (or very possibly will rank in the case of : Howard) among the 15 best players in basketball history. 显而易见的 球队要赢得总冠军甚至打进总冠军都需要一位英雄 在排名上要前5名并在比赛中领导全队 看看最後这4位 LBJ KB 魔兽 枪西 都是他们自己队上最顶尖的选手 而且前3位都是目前联盟前5名的好手 在历史上也能排上前15名 : KG was that caliber of player for much of his career, and that is why his : presence was the foundation of the 2008 championship team. But now there are : reasons to be concerned about his health. Maybe he comes back from this knee : injury, but other problems may await. As Charles Barkley put it in his : inimitable fashion, “at a certain point, in their 30s, guys don’t get : rested and healthy, they just get older.” KG已经打出他生涯水准了 这也是去年能夺冠的基石之一 但现在要考虑到他的健康状况了 也许他成功从膝伤中回来 但还是会面对到其他问题 大嘴巴名言:"在某些时候 30几岁的家伙若不能适时休息和保持健康 他们将会变得更老化" : The upside is that Garnett has the body type of a player whose game should : extend many more years. But that being said, KG’s game has already declined : while in Boston, his knee injury notwithstanding. His rebounding, getting to : the free throw line, general offense, have declined. He was once a top 5 : player in the league; now he is more like a top 10 or top 15 player, and he : is heading in the wrong direction. But even a top 15 KG will be necessary for : the Cs to win a title. 好的一面是KG是那种能比一般人还多打好几年的身体(铁牛) 不过这样说好了 虽然有膝伤 但是KG在Bos已经慢慢走下坡 他的篮板 上罚球线次数 和进攻已经不复以往 他曾经是联盟前5名的好手 现在他可能比较像是前10名或前15名 就算他现在只能排在前15名内 超赛夺冠还是不能缺少他 : 1B. Just how much will Rajon Rondo improve? 软豆(以下简称)会进步多少? : If KG is on the downside of his career, Rajon Rondo is moving at warp speed : in the opposite direction. Perhaps the most exciting development in the 08-09 : regular season was watching Rondo improve. Then he exploded in the Bulls : series as if to say, “introducing the NBA’s next great superstar.” For the : Cs to truly be able to kick Cleveland’s or Orlando’s tails in 2010 and : thereafter, Rondo is going to have to become a top 10 player in the league. : That means he has to improve his shooting, finish stronger, use his left hand : better. Rondo is an astonishing talent; he could become a top 5 player for : the next decade, one of the two best point guards in a point guard rich : league, or he could be a top 25-30 player, another very good all-star player : in a league full of very good players. If Rondo develops close to the former, : the current Cs have a chance to win more titles; if he tends toward the : latter position, history shows their chances are close to nil. If Rondo : cannot be the best player on a championship team, there is no one else on the : Cs roster, barring a KG miracle trip to the Fountain of Youth, up to the job. : And those guys are very hard to find. 如果说KG开始慢按走下坡了 那麽软豆就是正在进步的球员 也许本季例行赛最令人兴奋的事就是看见他的成长 他在和公牛比赛时爆发性的演出 就像是在宣誓下一个NBA巨星登场一样 为了以後要打败骑士和魔术 软豆必需要升级成为联盟前10名球星才行 这表示他要加强他的投篮 执行更加果决 左手动作要在加强 他拥有令人讶异的天份 现在有两个选项: 若成为顶尖得分後卫 他在接下来12年内有机会成为未来联盟前5名球星 若想成为全能身手球员 那将有机会在NBA历史中排上25-30名 选择第一项 超赛将可多得几座总冠军 选择第二项 历史则不站在你这边 若软斗不能在冠军球队上成为的一哥 那麽超赛现在真的没其他人了 除非KG能对年轻一辈有作用 不然真的找不到第二人了 : 3. Just how are Paul Pierce and Ray Allen aging? PP和雷枪正在老化 : Pierce and Allen both had solid seasons, and gave the Cs everything they : could have hoped for. Ironically, Paul made second team all-NBA and finished : in the top 10 in MVP voting for the first time in his career. I say : ironically because Pierce is not the talent he was a few years ago. He has : tremendous veteran savvy but he is no longer as explosive or dangerous. In : large sections of the playoffs he looked old and tired, and had difficulty : drawing fouls, the hallmark of his game. Ray Allen had a better regular : season in 08-09 than he did in 07-08. But in the playoffs, again, he went ice : cold for an extended period. A younger Ray Allen would have taken the tight : coverage of a JJ Redick – never confused with Michael Cooper -- and blown by : him to the hole or have drawn a foul. Those moments are less frequent, if not : entirely gone. PP和雷枪有了艰困的一季 然後也给了超赛他们希望给的 讽刺地 PP只选入all-NBA第二队 然後也没进入MVP前10名票选中 都是生涯第一次 我用讽刺地是因为他已经不是之前的PP 他拥有老将的见识 但已经不再那麽有爆发和威胁了 在这次大部分季後赛时间里 他看起来是那麽的老+累 也不再那麽容易引起对手犯规 他最招牌的大决 雷枪今年例行赛比去年还棒 但他进入季後赛时冰冷的手感又来了 年轻时的雷枪一定可以摆脱JJ的防守 不会让JJ有机会逼到不利位置和犯规 不过这种时刻却越来越少了 : Paul and Ray must keep their games at this level for another year. They need : to play fewer minutes in the regular season, even if it costs the Cs a few : wins. Both of them are at a critical juncture in their careers, as they will : be 32 and 34 respectively next season, and each is looking at a contract : extension. Danny will want to be thinking now about what to do as they : continue to decline. But we should be OK for 2009-10. 他们两位必须要继续保持水平 在常规赛一定要打得更少点 如果因此而让超赛少拿几胜 PP(32)和雷枪(34)都已经在他们生涯最关键的时刻了 也都希望能有个长约 DA必须要想清楚正在老化的两位球星 不过至少明年应该是没问题的 : 4. How much better can Perkins and Big Baby get? PK和BB还可以做得多好? : The other two great revelations of the 2009 playoffs, besides Rondo, were : Kendrick Perkins and Glen “Big Baby” Davis. I assume the Cs will re-sign : the 23 year-old Davis – he is a restricted free agent. Perkins is only 24 : and has improved tremendously over the past two years. He is now a plus : rebounder and a superb defender. He has become a decent offensive player and : gives indications that he might get to a 15 ppg level at his peak. Perkins : right now is a top 10 center in the NBA, and health permitting, will more : than hold his own in the pivot for the next seven-ten years. 今年季後赛除了软豆以外 KP和BB也是大爆发 我大胆假设23岁的BB今年会续约 24岁的PK这两年已大幅成长 他是抓篮板和防守的悍将 在生涯颠峰也许可以平均每场比赛抓15板 KP现在是联盟上前10名的中锋 在健康状况下 未来7-10年他将是成为球队轴心人物 : Big Baby has good court sense, is surprisingly nimble : and athletic for his size, and has developed a solid mid-range shot. In the : playoffs he did not look out of place as a starting forward. He should be a : rotation player for years to come. But there are reasons to believe he may be : close to his ceiling. He is at most 6-7 and has little lift or explosion. He : is slaughtered by tall 4s who can shoot. (He has more success bodying up guys : in the post.) He is a poor, even terrible, rebounder for a 4. The one unknown : about Davis is how could he develop if he shed 20 pounds and really worked on : his conditioning? There is a chance he would elevate his game to a much : higher level, especially on the offensive end. He could even be a legitimate : 20 ppg guy. BB在场上有正确概念并且动作灵敏 也练成了中距离 他在今年季後赛并没有成为先发前锋 但未来也将成为球队固定班底 有几点可以说明他已经快到达他的极限: 他6-7寸 对於高他4寸且具有投射能力的球员将是个头痛问题 已一个抓板的人来讲却少於4个 唯一不确定的是如果他少个20磅和维持好状态呢? 他将有机会提升能力 特别是在进攻端 有机会在每场得分平均20分 : 5. Can Leon Powe return? 李阿炮能回来吗? : Had Leon Powe not injured his knee, there is a decent chance Boston would : have defeated Orlando, and not require seven games to dispatch the Bulls. : Powe is a superior low post scorer, interior banger, general tough guy, and : rebounder. He was the polar opposite of Brian Scalabrine. Lost on the playoff : shuffle was the fact that most Cs observers considered Powe a more valuable. : I assume the Cs will re-sign the restricted free agent Leon, : but it is unclear how much he will contribute in 2010. It may be 2010-11 : before he is really back to 100 percent, and given his history with major : knee injuries we cannot help but wonder what 100 percent will mean. This much : is certain: If Leon comes back as the same player he was, he will be a : crucial rotation player for the Cs who will be instrumental in the team’s : success. 若李阿炮没受伤的话 也许有机会打赢魔术 也不需要7场才打赢公牛 他是一位优秀的低位得分手+内线武器+硬汉和抓篮板 他和吉祥物打法刚好完全相反 多数超赛观察者认为这次失利是因为李阿炮比BB还更猛 我猜超赛还是会续约 但还不确定2010年是否能对球队有贡献 也许在2010-11球季前能康复回来 但历史告诉我们 有了膝伤後的100趴 值得我们观察 若他回来时能和受伤前一样的话 他将是未来重要的成员之一 : 6. Can any of Bill Walker, J.R. Giddens, Gabe Pruitt, or Semih Erden emerge : as rotation players? : When it comes to assessing talent, Danny is as good as anyone, and these are : four guys who Danny picked in the draft. If any of them are going to make it : in the NBA, they ought to be able to force their way into rotation minutes by : next season. The odds are longest for Pruitt, who has already had two years : to demonstrate he can play. The upside with Pruitt is that he has the tools : to be a very good defender, capable of guarding either 1s or 2s. The downside : is that he can’t shoot. Everyone calls him a shooter, and he has nice form, : but his shots rarely go through the hoop. At some point style points have to : be replaced with actual points, and there is no reason to think Pruitt is : going to make that leap. Unless he does he has no shot at an NBA career, : because he is never going to be a great playmaker. I do not like his chances : at all. : I am similarly pessimistic about Giddens, but his chances are better than : Pruitt’s because he has only been in the league for one season. Giddens has : all the tools to be a successful wing. He has tremendous length, good : athleticism, and a nose for the ball. If he played in the backcourt with : Rondo it would be, without doubt, the greatest rebounding backcourt in NBA : history. It would outrebound nearly any set of starting forwards in the : league. But, alas, Giddens apparently had trouble picking up the system. Doc : as much as said that the guy is clueless. Let’s hope Giddens can overcome : the problem, but don’t bank on it. : Semih Erden was the Cs 2nd round pick in 2008. He is a 22 year-old 7 footer : from Turkey. Erden has good NBA-level athletic ability. When Danny selected : him, he said Erden was, in effect, the team’s 2009 no. 1 pick. But nearly : all the reports of people who watch Erden play in Europe say he is a head : case who has little or no chance of making it in the NBA. Let’s hope Danny : proves them wrong, but we should not bank on it. : Walker is the pick of the litter for now. He demonstrated toughness and great : athletic ability. Plus his head was clearly in the game. All indications are : that he is a very serious athlete committed to improving. It was wonderful : how he managed to get under the skin of opposing players. What Walker needs : to show is that he has the handle and shot and general offensive game to : justify minutes. If he does, he could play next year. A year from now we : could be waxing enthusiastically about Walker as a coming star; he has that : much ability. The downside with Walker is that, like Powe, he has a history : of serious knee injuries. : So those are the questions about our existing roster, and the answers will go : a long way toward determining the course of the 2009-10 season. : But Danny has a pretty big toolkit to use to improve the roster for next : season. He will have at least one open slot to fill (nice knowing you, Mikki : Moore), and possibly a few more depending upon the fates of Marbury, Pruitt, : House, Giddens, and Tony Allen among others. : Danny played it safe a year ago, letting Posey go and not signing a : replacement with MLE money, and then got the short end of the stick when he : nabbed Mikki Moore just before the deadline this season. : We should expect Danny to be far more active this off-season. It is obvious : the team has serious needs and there will be players available who will be : able to meet them. : Danny’s Toolkit, in descending order of importance/likelihood: : 1. The MLE: Danny has the full mid-level exemption to play with. This means : around $5.5 million annual salary for up to five seasons with a 10 percent : annual raise. There are many very good veteran free agents available, and we : should expect Danny to make a play for one of them. Some of the names to be : considered: Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza, the list goes on and : on. Danny can split the MLE among more than one player. Wyc Grousbeck will : have to be willing to swallow luxury tax implications with this signing, but : my hunch is he will give the greenlight. : 2. The LLE: This is the smaller free agent exemption. The Cs can sign a : player to up to a two-year deal at $2 million plus per year. This is a good : slot for a deep bench guy or for a player like Marbury. It is also a slot : that can be used to roll the dice on a younger unproven prospect. The Cs may : keep this line open to use on a mid-season waiver wire pick-up. : 3. Purchasing a draft pick (or two): Danny has made obscure draft day deals : or flat out purchased picks several times over the past few years. Rondo, : Powe and Walker all came though such machinations. This year the likelihood : seems good the Cs will buy at least one pick. It is a lousy draft so teams : may be more inclined to sell picks, even no. 1 picks, plus the crappy economy : has many teams seeking hard cold cash. The Cs do not have a pick until no. 58 : overall, and Danny probably has eyeballed one or two guys he really wants. : There are diamonds even in the worst draft classes. But even if Danny and Wyc : do buy a pick, the player will likely not contribute in 2010. This will be : for the long-term. : 4. Expiring contracts I: The Cs have several contracts that expire in 2010, : for players of marginal value to the team: Scalabrine; Tony Allen; Eddie : House, if he does not opt to become a free agent; Gabe Pruitt. Many teams are : desperate to dump long-term contracts, either to get under the cap for the : 2010 free agent market or to simply save money. The Cs could get into this : market to score a veteran player and/or to get a future no. 1 pick. (e.g. : Scal and Tony Allen could probably net Nazr Mohammed and a future no. 1 from : Charlotte.) This option is dependent upon Wyc Grousbeck’s willingness to : assume more salary. If he is, the Cs should be able to tango. : 5. Expiring contracts II: Ray Allen’s deal also expires in 2010. I think the : chances are very high that he stays in Boston and re-ups to finish his career : with the Cs. However, if Danny thinks he needs to really make a big deal to : win a title in 2010, it is possible he could make a deal for Ray. There would : be some teams eager to have a contract that expired in 2010 and also get a : very valuable player who could bring supreme veteran leadership to the locker : room. If Danny does deal Ray, it will likely be a blockbuster deal. : 6. Trading a future no. 1 pick (or two): This violates Red Auerbach’s First : Commandment, but sometimes rules are made to be broken. It may be that Danny : will be able to get a talented player by giving up one or two future no. 1 : picks. It would have to bring back tremendous value, but it is an option. The : Cs window with the “Big Three” is brief, and if two no. 1 picks along with : expiring contracts nabs another veteran all-star still in his prime, a la : what the Lakers did for Pau Gasol, Danny would have to do it. : The season is over. Long live the new season. Your turn, Danny. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.230.129.17 ※ 编辑: hung780502 来自: 61.230.129.17 (05/19 19:44)