The Celtics clutch offense: The Big Three 关键时刻三巨头的表现 By Zach Lowe, CelticsHub.com March 12th, 11:23 am http://celticshub.com/2009/03/12/the-celtics-clutch-offense-the-big-three /#more-766 http://0rz.tw/MKhFJ ---------------------------------- Last night, we took a look at the C’s overall offensive numbers during fourth quarters in which the scoring margin was three points or fewer at any point– something that’s happened in 30 games this year. (Team record: 18-12). The results came as a relief. The next step: taking a look at the Big Three to see if Pierce is carrying the load as much as it seems, and whether KG or Walter Ray change the way they play offense during money time. (Keep in mind: KG missed six of these 30 games–but none of the three that went into OT-meaning he played in 25 out of a possible 31.25 “clutch” quarters. Also, this does not include last night’s game against Miami). 上一次，我们分析了超赛全队在关键时刻的数据。所谓的关键时刻就是在第四节分差 在3分以内的时刻，在本赛季我们有30次这样的经历，战绩18胜12负，结果看上去还不坏。 具体分析一下三巨头的表现，看看PP是否对得起以往的第四节先生称号，以及KG和RAY 关键时刻能力又如何。 （※KG错过了这30场中的6场比赛！） (以下是三巨头在关键时刻的数据) FTs 2-pt FGs 3-pt FGs TOs ---------- -------------- ------------- ------ Truth 47-96 (49%) 8-25 (32%) 25 囧 84-100 (84%)★ Ray 26-45 (58%)★ 18-54 (33%) 10 37-38 (97%) KG 41-72 (57%) 1-3 (33%) 9 14-17 (82%) A couple of quick conclusions: ‧ These guys can really shoot. Look at those two-point percentages. ‧三巨头关键时刻从不手软，看看他们的两分球命中率！ ‧ Nothing changes in KG’s offensive game in the clutch. (And he never gets to the line anymore). ‧KG的进攻数据没有太大变化。（他较少(在关键时刻)站上罚球线。） ‧ Ray reverses his two-point attempt/three-point attempt ratio in crunch time ‧Ray在关键时刻的两分球/三分球出手的比例正好相反。 ‧ Paul Pierce has taken ONE HUNDRED freaking free throws in crunch time. 100! ‧PP竟然在关键时刻获得了100次罚球的机会!!!!!!! Let’s start there. That is a remarkable number. Pierce has shot 445 free throws this year, meaning a full 22 percent of his free throw attempts have come in 30 fourth quarters and three overtimes–a span that makes up just 12 percent of the season so far. Read another way, Pierce has gotten to the line twice as often in “clutch” fourth quarters as his normal FTA rate suggests he should have. Pierce has taken 26.7 percent of the Celtics 1,666 free throws overall this season; he’s taken 37.5 percent of the free throws in my “clutch ” sample. There’s one obvious caveat here: About one-quarter (maybe a little bit less) of these “clutch” foul shots came in end-of-game scenarios where the other team fouled Pierce to stop the clock. Even with this in mind, the number of FTAs is still enormous. And it’s a hugely important skill. Jump shots go hot and cold, ingenious plays break down, but Pierce’s will to attack the rim never wavers. Pierce at the foul line is probably the C’s best late-game weapon –even better than a Pierce jumper. The Celtics also rely heavily on that. Pierce’s 97 total two-point “clutch” FGAs make up 22.5 percent of the Celtics “clutch” total. Overall this season, Pierce has taken 17.7 percent of the team’s two-point field-goal attempts. Clearly, the team leans on the Truth when games get close. (Does this make him the best scorer in Celtic history? It’s an interesting debate). 下面的数字有点惊人，PP本赛季总共获得了445次罚球机会，这意味着其中22％的罚球机 会来自30场比赛中的第四节和三次延长赛——占总时间的12％。另一方面来说，PP关键时刻 站上罚球线的机率比其它时间高一倍。 PP的罚球次数占球队本赛季1666次罚球的26.7%，而在关键时刻他的罚球机会上升到全队的 37.5%，在这些关键时刻的罚球中，有三分之一是由对手采取犯规战术而获得的，尽管如此 PP的罚球数据还是相当惊人，这点非常重要。要知道跳投的手感可能时好时坏，也不是每次 都能有十大好球球等级的演出，但PP攻击篮框的决心从来不会降低。 PP冲击篮下获得罚球是球队在关键时刻非常重要的武器，就某方面而言PP勇於攻击篮下比 他的跳投更能给对手带来威胁。 当然，球队在关键时刻也非常仰仗PP的97次两分球出手（占全队的22.5%）。本赛季PP 的两分球出手总数占全队的17.7% ，球队在关键时刻非常需要真理的挺身而出！ But you knew that. What you might not have known is that Ray Allen becomes a little more one-dimensional as close games wind down. The ratio of 54 three-point attempts to 45 two-pointers is positively Posey-ian–and way out of line with Ray’s normal shooting stats. It’s why his relentless mix of lay-ups and mid-range jumpers against Orlando Sunday stood out so starkly. So what’s going on here? I suspect part of it has to do with the fact that in fourth quarters of close games, Walter Ray is always on the court with two of the best mid-range scorers in the game’s recent history–Pierce and Garnett. Maybe he gets his best long-distance looks with those guys drawing defenders to the interior. If you charted Ray’s shot attempts by lineup, I bet you’d find he takes more inside shots when he’s playing with the bench, handling the ball and taking on more of the scoring burden. One other thing: That 37-of-38 mark from the foul line–nice. 上面的结论有些你可能本来就知道，但恐怕你并不知道RAY在关键时刻的进攻略显单一，54 次三分出手和45次两分出手的比例有点类似Posey了，这也就是为什麽在和魔术的比赛中 RAY大量的上篮和中投令人感到有点惊讶。 但为什麽会这样呢？我猜可能是因为每到关键时刻，和RAY并肩作战的是近几年超赛最优秀 的两位中投手PP和KG，正因为如此，对方不得不在禁区内严密布防，使得RAY在外线得到 更好的出手机会。如果做一张Ray的投篮数据表，我可以打赌Ray在单独率领替补的情况下， 他持球进攻更多采取的是接近篮筐的攻击手段。 再补充一下，关键时刻Ray的罚球：37－38!!!!!!!!!!!!!! After the jump, we take a look at the Big Ticket. Finally, we come to KG. His stats in these situations almost exactly mirror his overall numbers. He takes about 3.4 shots per quarter overall and about three shots in each “clutch” fourth quarter–meaning he shoots relatively less often in these situations, since he plays more minutes in the “clutch” than otherwise. For better or worse, this is KG. He is not going to start jacking up shots or bulling his way to the rim in the fourth quarter. I mean, Eddie House has taken more shots per minute in these 30 fourth quarters than KG (we will cover Eddie’ s fondness for his own shot in a later post). For a certain segment of basketball fans, this will always be the knock on KG. I’ve given up trying to figure it out, but I don’t think he cowers from the moment. Chris Webber cowered. KG does not cower. He took some big shots last year, and he went off for 32-20-8 in his first big time Game 7 with Minnesota in 2004. Maybe he is truly, genuinely unselfish. Maybe he thinks that passing less will hurt the offense and exerting more effort posting up Pau Gasol will deplete the tank for defense. I don’t know. But I do know this: The biggest change in KG’s game this year is the drop in his free throw attempts, which is reflected here. (Six of those 17 FTAs came in end-of-game situations with the C’s up five or more and 30 seconds or less left; see this game log, for instance). His per-36 minute FTAs have dropped by half since last year–from 5.2 (and 6.0 the year before) to 2.7. That’s a sharp drop. Maybe it’s a function of him hurting for much of the year. Maybe he’s trying to conserve his body for the playoffs, and he’ll be more aggressive in May than December. Either way, that mid-range jumper is still a nasty, nasty weapon–in the clutch and otherwise. 下面让我们来看看KG的表现吧。 不管这是否是个好现象，KG现在已经很少在关键时刻依靠单打能力独立扛起进攻了，甚至 至房子在这种时候的出手次数也已经超越了KG。 对於很多质疑KG的人来说，这是攻击KG的一个好机会，我不想因人废言，但是我要说KG 在第四节绝对不会软手！Chris Webber可能会，但KG不会！ (※注意：Chris Webber是原文作者自己提的....囧 非关译者与塞尔提克球迷的立场) KG去年之前在第四节就投中了很多关键球，在明尼苏达的时候，他在那次着名的第7场决战 可是砍下了32分20个篮板和8次助攻的惊人数据！可能是因为他太无私了，可能因为他总是 觉得打球太独会影响整体进攻。去年冠军赛时KG也可能觉得过多的低位背打Paul Gasol会耗 耗太多体力以致影响了防守.....等等这些都可能是KG关键时刻较少单打、和较少站上罚球 线的原因。 但可以肯定的是本赛季KG的罚球次数有了明显的下降，每36分钟的罚球次数从上赛季的 5.7次到本赛季几乎降了一半，只有区区2.7次，这个降幅太大了，这也许是因为本赛季他的 伤病比较多，也可能是因为他在韬光养晦，准备在季候赛的时候大爆发~~~ 不过......中距离跳投在关键时刻不一定是最好的选择。 # ---------------------------------------- 好吧，我真的觉得关键时刻把球给谁未免是超赛太奢侈的烦恼了~XD 三巨头真正恐怖的地方是在那关键时刻的命中率呀呀呀~~~~ GO GO CELTICS ~~~~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.136.79.131 不好意思 网页复制下来的表格怪怪的 顺序和原始连结不太一样 我改一下顺序~ ※ 编辑: SexyCassell 来自: 220.136.79.131 (03/13 23:20)