Game Winning Shots by Roland Beech, 82games.com http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm 此篇文章主要在谈「绝杀」，包含：绝杀出手次数、绝杀命中率以及绝杀出手球员。 仅翻译部分片段如下，对全文有兴趣者请至原文连结。 翻译若有错误或不妥，还请大家指正^^~ ----------------------------------------------- Ah yes, when it comes to requests for updated stats on features we've done in the past, nothing comes close to the clamor for another look at "game winning shots" in the NBA. The last time we investigated this was way back on 4/13/2006 as part of the Random Stat collection, and Carmelo Anthony came out on top for the most shots made by the definition we used (see below) as well as doing it with a wonderful .647 field goal percentage. That is a long time ago though, so let's see what the current word is! 是的，当我们回忆过往那些伟大时刻的时候，没有什麽比绝杀更能吸引人们的注意。上一次 我们关於这份历史统计是在2006年4月13日作出， 当时Carmelo Anthony荣膺绝杀王 —─当然， 评定的方法是我们自己定义的。 不过这也是一个了不起的成就，melo的 绝杀命中率达到64.7%。 不过这是以前的事情了，来看看现在又是什麽情形吧！ First off there's really one main issue -- what exactly do we want to define as a game winning shot? If we make it too restrictive, as in a real last second shot at the buzzer, then you are dealing with tiny, tiny sample sizes. So instead, we proposed the following filter: 首先我们需要面对的问题是： 如何定义绝杀？ 如果太严格，只算最後一秒的话， ，那麽很多伟大的进球将被抹杀。所以我们提出以下的计算方法： Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 point. 绝杀机会=比赛剩下时间为24秒或者24秒以下，两队打平，或者拥有控球权的球队落後1~2分 。 Why use this definition? With 24 seconds or less, then it truly is a "last possession" situation potentially With a margin from tied to down 2, the team can take the lead with a made basket (including 3's) By excluding a down 3 situation, we don't have the "gimme two point buckets" that defenses will sometimes yield to the quick bucket/intentional foul strategy option you often see exercised. 为什麽这样定义呢？ 首先，24秒或者24秒以下的剩余时间，即使在没有投篮的情况下，球权可能不会再转换。 其次，平手，或者落後1-2分，意味着比赛有翻盘的可能。 第三，排除落後3分的情况，(因为)这样可以投两分然後犯规，或者领先方战术犯规等等… (为避免制造统计上的困难，故排除此种情况。) The first thing to note is that these types of shots are very difficult on a league wide basis: a .298 Field Goal percentage doesn't exactly inspire confidence! 首先，我们要知道，绝杀成功率很低，联盟平均29.8%. Part of this is that game winning chances may come with just a couple of seconds or less remaining in the game from the inbounds. So manufacturing any shot at all in some cases is to the player's credit. In some cases it can even be a half court heave! 有时候可能只有几秒钟，甚至更少的时间来完成所谓的「绝杀」，所以球员们的信心 经常破表，会过半场就出手，或後场直接投篮。 LeBron James was just 4-19 in our previous look at game winning shots, so in the ensuing two and a half seasons, he has come up with a very respectable 13-31 (.419) record and just the other day had a pure game winner at the buzzer to top the Warriors. In addition he has six assists and a healthy number of free throws earned. LBJ在06年的记录是19投4中。但是他这两个半赛季的表现进步很大，成绩是31投13中（ 41.9%），而且就在前几天（1月23号）还绝杀了勇士。除此之外，他还有6次助攻队友绝杀 ，并且十几次在罚球线上帮助球队取得胜利。 Vince Carter doesn't get a lot of love from fans for the most part but is actually #2 in the standings for most game winners over this period. Vince Carter在多数时候并不特别受到球迷青睐，除了他的扣篮和……绝杀！他在绝 杀榜上排名第二。 Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%). Ray Allen在第三名，不过他投中的三分球是最多的，一共有8个。作为一个(现役)高龄 纯射手，他是最出色的，同时他还保持联盟2分球的命中记录。 ...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots! ......然後才是Kobe，这是科迷不愿意看到的，但他们的男人确实在这个排行榜上 位列第四，不过他保持着另外一个第一名：绝杀失败次数。 (以下补充绝杀失败次数排行：) 42 - Kobe 35 - Vince Carter 33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron 32 - Crawford 31 - Billups Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem? He does have a better record in the playoffs though, which we'll get to down below. 我们没有贬低kobe的意思，我觉得他依然是NBA当中最好的球员之一（注意：是之一) 但是他的绝杀显然被夸大了：人们只记得他投进的，不记得他没投进的。而且56次 出手尝试和1次助攻的数据也似乎说明了些什麽。不过他在季後赛的表现仍然精采。 Carmelo Anthony has slipped from the former top spot, but still a worthy challenger with the best fg% of any player with at least 10 makes. Carmelo Anthony的排名有所下滑，不过他仍然是10次以上绝杀选手中，命中率最高的。 Beyond that, you see a lot of familiar names, most with low success rates, and a lot of players with very low assists. Paul Pierce is an exception as he stands at the head of the class for 'game winning assists' with nine, ahead of Nash, Kidd, Billups, and the rest. 以上一长串熟悉的名字当中，大多数绝杀成功率都很低，而球员们很少有助攻绝杀。 但Paul Pierce 就是一个意外了，他助攻绝杀次数最多，甚至领先於Nash, Kidd, Billup 等助攻高手。 # --------------------------------------------- 关於绝杀这档事情 超赛非常幸运有超过一个以上的进攻适合选择~ RAY的部分，我没有记错的话，RAY来到超赛以後有3次成功绝杀对手 而这三次助攻绝杀全部来自PP PP的部分，过去他已经拯救塞尔提克太多次了~ 最近一次是本赛季在主场绝杀老鹰~ (在此先不谈KG，不过事实上KG在灰狼时期绝杀对手的次数也不少~) RAY和PP的绝杀，决定性的不同在於这两个人的出手速度和打球特性 RAY的出手比PP快(而且快很多XD)，剩下时间越短越应该给RAY 反之，如果要耗掉进攻时间，则应该给PP，或者可以换到罚球机会 PP的绝杀不需要教练设计繁杂的战术，简单的挡人、换防对他就很足够 但是需要注意他偶尔会有无脑失误的老症头......囧 (比如持球过久而失误......) 不过比起他曾经为这支球队创造的奇蹟，这毛病就算了吧....... 根据过去的纪录，PP的绝杀以中距离为主，他的三分绝杀不常见 但RAY却是以三分绝杀着称 如果考量到一个完整的战术(尤其需要三分球的时候)，RAY的执行力也很出色 由PP吸引对手包夹而传出的助攻绝杀──RAY从来没有失手过呀呀呀!!!!! GO GO CELTICS ~~~ 啊啊~~~我们有这麽多人选可以绝杀对手也是很奢侈的烦恼呀~~~~~XDDDDD --------- --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.136.87.150 ※ 编辑: SexyCassell 来自: 220.136.87.150 (02/14 00:44)