※ 引述《solomon8355 (mon.)》之铭言： 请那位可以帮我分柝这篇文章 3Q 分析 http://celtics.realgm.com/articles/366/20081231/danny_ainges_dilemmas/ 丹尼安吉的两难故事 Danny Ainge’s Dilemmas 凑出三巨头似乎已经是很久以前的事情了 谁想到效果会这麽好呢? 例行赛 总冠军(17) 所以当然就想延续下去 When Danny Ainge made the deals for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the summer of 2007 – doesn’t that already seem like ancient history? – the general impression was given that Ainge thought the team might need a year to gel and that 2009 would be the year to make a claim for an NBA title. To the surprise of many, including this author, the C's came together almost magically and dominated the league en route to flag no. 17. At the time it seemed the window for championships for this team would extend at least two or three more seasons. With an extraordinary 27-4 start to the 2008-09 season, everything seems set for another run on titles lasting at least two or three more years. And with the brilliant Danny Ainge at the helm, perhaps longer. 但是别被蒙蔽了 有一些障碍 我们来看看有甚麽需要面对的 But looks can be deceiving. Because RealGM is a website dedicated to serious fans who are concerned with the architecture of teams, allow me to provide my take on where the C's are right now in the larger scheme of things and what options face Danny Ainge. 首先当然要看看三巨头的状况 他们很威 但是不知道他们甚麽时候退化(diminish) 这很难估阿 历年来 每种球星的状况都不同 Lost in the excitement and drama of last season, the charisma of the star players, the general consistent intensity of the team’s defensive play, and the spectacular start to the 2008-09 season, there have been some potentially ominous signs. Mostly, they have to do with the proverbial Big Three. We all knew that they were at a point in their careers where their games would diminish, but with superstars it is hard to know when that point would arrive exactly. Some players continue at a high level well into their mid-30s, like Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, John Stockton, John Havlicek, Reggie Miller, and Karl Malone. Others, like Charles Barkley, Dave Cowens, David Robinson, Shaq, Kevin McHale, and Shawn Marion, head south in their early 30s. It is almost impossible to predict although pundits have 20-20 hindsight. 先谈KG KG已经从top3~5 掉到top10~12 如果他还会衰退 那超赛的竞争力也会减弱 除非有人跳出来帮忙 (这点我很不能认同 我觉得他是舍弃自己的个人表现 来帮助团队胜利! 要他砍分还不简单 命中率又不低 他不需要像狼王期甚麽都要做) As I said, lost in the glow of the title there were some troubling signs with the Big Three last year that have continued into 2009. Kevin Garnett was no longer one of the top three to five players in the game in 2008, which he had been for the much of the previous decade. He was a dominant defender with a lovely mid-range jump shot, but his once Rodman-like rebounding had slipped a notch or two. This trend continues into the current season, where he is now settled in one of the top 10-12 players in the game and heading south. This is an underappreciated development. As I have demonstrated elsewhere, teams that win titles tend to be led by a player who ranks among the 3-5 best in the game at the time. It is not always true; it holds around 80-85 percent most of the time. But those are not great odds when the Eastern Conference has players-for-the-ages studs like LeBron James and Dwight Howard leading 60 plus win teams into the playoffs. As Garnett gets further and further away from the status of a top 5 player, the C's chances of winning titles decline unless someone else rises to fill the breech. 再来雷枪 (被表更惨) 他退化得更严重 上次季後赛因为他害超赛差一点翻船 幸好他在总冠军战回神 也因此救了超赛一命 这一季好很多 但也没百分之百回复 (我又要抱不平了 想想看 当初也是原本球队的头头 他现在来超赛 持球时间大幅下降 甚至有时被定位三分射手 这也是牺牲个人完成团体吧) Ray Allen’s play in 2008 was well below his career standards, much more so than KG. His dreadful play in the Atlanta and Cleveland playoff series almost cost the C's the title and suggested he might be washed up. Fortunately, he found his groove deep into the conference finals and then in the finals, or else the C's would have not won the title. His play has improved this season with better health even though he is not at the level of his prime. PP也中枪bla bla bla 但主要问题不是这是不是一支六十胜球队 而是今年的总冠军!!! (没错!) And Paul Pierce, too, circa 2008-09, is a notch below the Paul Pierce of his 20s. Allen and Pierce are still fine players, but they rank in the top 30-40 now, rather than the top 10-20, where they resided for much of their careers. If Allen and Pierce remained at the primes, KG’s decline would be less significant. They are all such fine players that even their combined slippage does not prevent the C's from being a great team. But the question is not whether this is a 60 win team – it is -- it is whether this team will win the 2009 NBA championship. 这个球队在老化 你看 Posey都不续签了 只能期忘剩下的替补补的上 Coming into the 2008-09 season, the C's task of repeating was perhaps more daunting than was widely acknowledged by exuberant fans, basking in the pleasure of being at the top. It was more than simply the Big Three showing their age. Ainge had decided to let James Posey walk and see if Tony Allen, Eddie House, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe could pick up the slack. It was not an unreasonable move, as Posey’s salary was long and large and would have been a burden in 2011 when the C's might be in a position to get well under the salary cap. Moreover, Powe, T. Allen, and Davis are young and could see significant improvement. 但再怎麽看来都少了一块重要拼图 安吉书了这场赌局(就是剩下替补能否补的上) (那些替补有甚麽问题我就不翻了 大家应该都看的到...糟的时候真得很糟) But, at any rate, the C's had lost a major piece, and its star players were a year deeper into their 30s. At this point, 1/3 of the way into the season, Ainge has lost that gamble. Powe and T. Allen have had their moments, but neither has been consistent. Powe looked like a Paul Millsap type in the closing two months of the 2008 season. This year, he only plays like that periodically. T. Allen still plays out of control far too often for a fifth year player. At some point one must wonder if he will ever get it. Davis has been a major disappointment. Other than playing solid position defense in the low post, he does little of particular value. Eddie House still cannot play the point especially well, to the point that turnover machine Tony Allen sometimes assumes those duties when they are on the floor together. House is a hustling streak shooter who is of limited value if his shot is not falling. The Celtics' bench this year has been a disappointment. Right now it looks like Danny rolled the dice and lost. 那这个老化问题该怎麽办? 关键点就是剩下的两个先发! Perkins(24) 和 Rondo(22) (以下两段都是赞美 不输乡民嘴炮 ex Perks有可能在未来拿到防守第?队头衔 我想 等KG不在的时候再说吧~) The key to compensating for a declining Big Three and a disappointing bench has come from dramatic improvements from the two remaining starters Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, age 24 and 22, respectively. Much of the optimism about the C's prospects this season rests upon their improved play. Perkins has evolved into one of the best interior defenders in the NBA and will possibly begin an annual trip to the All-Defensive team this year. His offense has improved as well, and he is a credible option at the low post. He now ranks as one of the 10-12 best centers in the league. If he can consistently make the 12-15 foot wide-open shot, which he is invariably granted by the opposing team, and which most comparable NBA centers learn to shoot, he can possibly make an All-Star team or two down the road. But that will not happen this year. Perks中距离投篮还可以再加油^.< Rondo, of course, is the main source of optimism and excitement among C's fans, not only for this season, but for the coming decade and the post big-three era. His game has improved dramatically as a point guard and has, therefore, made the offense far more effective. He has become a credible offensive force with his drives to the hoop. And he is a superior defender although a tad reckless at times. When Rondo is on his game, the C's can, and will, play with anyone in the league and beat anyone in the league. So far, he seems to play his game better at home than on the road. Anyway one slices it, Rondo is arguably no less than the second or third best player on the team, and he may well be the most important player on the team in short order. His ascension has been breathtaking. One can project Rondo as an All-Star already this season and possibly as an All-Pro in the future. His talent is that enormous. But, he has two major limitations. These limitations may be overcome down the road, but they are going to persist through this season and next. First, he still plays a bit out of control, and that translates into unnecessary turnovers and lost scoring opportunities. This is a function of age and experience and the price one pays with a young point guard. Second, and more importantly, Rondo cannot hit the wide-open shot, even from 12 or 15 feet, in games. He has no confidence. His free throw shooting is also dismally deficient. Nor can he hit the pull-up 12-15 foot jump shot in games, which is available to him every time down the court as no team in the league dares to guard him closely until he is in the lane. I say “in games” because Rondo apparently nails these shots, out to the three-point line, in practice. He simply lacks confidence. Rondo’s talent is so prodigious that this unwillingness to take open shots does not cause serious problems against most opponents. But when playing the great teams of the league in the playoffs, it will possibly prove fatal. 软豆似乎两个问题很大 如各位所见 1.脑充血 2.空档也无法投篮 囧很大 这就导向另一个问题了 联盟里的顶尖球队都进步了! Doc说超赛2009必须梦幻般的进步才能连霸不是乱讲的 大家看看 有小皇帝的骑士 有魔兽的魔术 有科神的湖人 (而且他们今年的帮手很厉害呢) And this leads to the other great problem facing Danny Ainge and the C's as they attempt to repeat: the other top teams in the league are better, much better, than they were last year. Doc Rivers is not blowing CoachSpeak when he says the Celtics have to improve dramatically to win again in 2009. The Lakers are a tremendous team, clearly worthy of a crown. The Cavaliers are a frighteningly good team, with the best player in the game today and arguably the someone who will be regarded as greatest player of all time. If the Celtics do somehow defeat these two teams to win a title in 2009, the C's will have had as difficult a challenge in the playoffs as any team in Celtics' history. It will be an astounding accomplishment. It is not unlike the early 80s when Philly and the Lakers each had exceptional teams standing in the C's way. And the Magic are looking like a 60 win team this year and for years to come. If the C's do not get the home court advantage in the east and have to go through Orlando and Cleveland en route to LA, their chances of getting flag no. 18 are, to be frank, not encouraging. The degree of difficulty this year is very high, a 19 game winning streak notwithstanding. 回到标题要谈的重点了!(呼~好累 这篇好长) 丹尼安吉的两难故事... 板凳方面 後卫没有稳定得分手 锋线没有一个好的防守者 可以守的住喇叭詹系列球员 不过这些替补还是有一点点价值 就是可以期待他们的进步 也有人提出可以招纳老兵(下面提出的都很可口...) 小结 无论怎样 安吉就是得动手了 改变一下 So that brings us to Danny Ainge’s dilemmas. I use the plural, because Danny has a complex set of demands upon him. He is commissioned to win now while the team is a legitimate contender first and foremost. In this capacity, Danny needs to address the immediate problems facing the team: Its woeful bench which lacks a back-up point guard who can run an offense, or a “big” who stands over 6-6 in his bare feet, or a forward who can have some prayer of staying with a big 3 like LeBron, not to mention Rashard Lewis. Danny has few resources to use to improve the roster. There are no future no. 1 picks to deal until 2012, and such a pick has little value. (Not to mention, Danny likes to keep his picks. Red Auerbach’s first commandment was Thou Shalt Not Trade Future No. 1 Picks.) And the marginal young players on the C's roster have little current trade value, but they do have some upside so the C's are wise to keep them. Hence Danny is pretty much reduced to signing players who are retired like Dikembe Mutombo and P.J. Brown and Jason Williams or who might get bought out by their current teams, like, we hope, Joe Smith of the Thunder. Danny must do something, anything within reason, to give this team a better shot at succeeding in the playoffs this season. 但他这样让他球队运作 他必须预测 球队什麽时候不再是具有冠军实力的竞争者 举例来说2009年季後赛就输了 但软豆表现不错 But he is also responsible for attempting to extend the current window as a legitimate contender for as long as possible, so he has to determine at what point the C's are no longer legitimate contenders. When does the so-called “ window” shut? As this season winds down, and in the summer of 2009, this will be the dominant story in Celticsland. Should the C's win flag no. 18 this year, Danny will almost certainly only tweak the roster and go for a three-peat in 2010. Or if the C's lose in the 2009 playoffs, but Rondo’s brilliant development convinces Danny that he can be an All-Pro as soon as next year, that he can be the best player on a championship team, then he would stay the course, as well. (This is not as far-fetched as it would have seemed only three months ago, but the odds are still at best 1 in 10, as it requires among other things for Rondo to become an effective and consistent shooter.) 又是 年纪 钱 等等期望值的考虑 But should the C's lose in the playoffs and look old in the process, and should the immediate horizon seem to have a handful of very good rising teams equal or superior to the C's, Danny will face a major dilemma. Does he try to tweak the team with an MLE signing -- say, for sake of discussion, Ben Gordon for a five-year $35 million deal – and hope the team can rally for one more title while the Big Three are still quality players? Then get another MLE guy in the summer of 2010. The downside with that approach, aside from luxury tax implications, is that he ties up the team with several long-term deals for average players and kills any salary cap flexibility for years. (As a worst case scenario of this approach, consider the Knicks' roster littered with Jerome James and Jared Jeffries.) It also keeps the team good enough to avoid getting a top draft pick. The other course for Danny is to deconstruct the team, get under the cap, get some draft picks, and reconstruct the team around Rondo, Perkins, and an aging KG come 2011. 又是薪资空间的问题 跟上一篇雷同~ 而且如果超赛没夺冠 安吉先生会更烦恼 可能就会像前几年的活塞那样 就维持在稳定的中上程度...(这比喻真好) This is going to be a difficult situation for Danny if they fail to win the title in 2009. (If they do win in 2009, the issue will be postponed for a year.) The path of least resistance will be to try to patch up the show and hope for a little luck and another title behind the Big Three and Rondo in 2010. The sportswriters will all approve and so will much of the fan base. The owners will make money, and the C's will be on national TV frequently. At best, they can be like the Pistons have been for the past three or four years. But the downside of such an approach is to become like the C's from 1988-93: A team playing out the string and just postponing the inevitable collapse without a legitimate chance at winning a title. If Danny milks the 2008 title to simply have a nice team for the next three or four years only to have the C's return to the NBA basement for the balance of the 2010s, they may come to regret having won the title in 2008. 整体来看 作者猜安吉不会牺牲掉球队培养的小夥子们 虽然他也很喜欢超赛的传统(?) 可能会交易掉雷枪当筹码(我又哭哭了) 他不会只停留在2008的喜悦 他会积极地让这支球队有竞争力 不会只有"中上程度"而已就满足 Knowing what we do about Danny Ainge, it is unlikely he will settle for the path of least resistance. My educated guess is that the moment he determines the team does not have a realistic chance of winning a title, that minor tweaking or a trade or an MLE free agent cannot fix the problem, he will implement a comprehensive plan to retool. The refusal to sign James Posey in 2008 was an indication that Danny is not going to sacrifice the future for the present. As much as Danny loves the C's tradition, I don’t think he would have any qualms about trading anyone on the roster – anyone – if he thought it would improve the team’s chances of ultimately returning to legitimate contention. I cannot imagine him letting the Big Three have a victory lap around the league from 2010 to 2012, similar to Larry, Chief, and Kevin in the early 90s. I could imagine Danny trading Ray Allen as an expiring contract, or doing whatever it takes to get under the cap and soon. I could see Danny being willing to dip into the lottery for two seasons (a la 2006 and 2007) to get the chips necessary to put together a contender. In short, I think the historical record suggests Danny will move aggressively with a plan; he is not going to rest on the 2008 championship to go into a gradual decline like the British Empire. He wants to stay on top, and he has demonstrated a record of taking the long view strategically. 当然啦 如果连霸 软豆升级成硬豆 那以上想法会动摇 至少一或两年维持现状 (拜托 就这样吧) Now, of course, if the C's win another flag in 2009, or Rondo emerges the second or third best point guard in the NBA, such thinking may be moot, at least for another year or two. But I suspect that this is precisely the thought process going on through Danny’s head although perhaps in somewhat different terms. 有一推测可以看出安吉的为什麽这麽想 看看近年的选秀 除了三巨头 其他人都非常年轻! 几乎都不大於26 他选了一个 喔不来恩 反而不拿这个钱换立即战力 小结 他努力在培养超赛的未来阿 (看完这一段觉得安吉很神 希望这些小将能加油!) One indication of how Danny is always thinking two moves ahead is to look at the C's current roster. For a team that has just won a title and is a serious contender for another one in 2009, it is an astonishingly young roster. Take away the Big Three and this is one of the youngest teams in the league. There are nine players 26 or younger. Danny Ainge signed a long-term project in Patrick O’Bryant rather than bring in a crusty veteran to provide bench power. He likes to develop young players, either to become players or to be used in trades. (大家昏头了吗? 我很昏= =) 所以他的主要议题就是就是 短期维持现状 & 长期投资年轻人 所以呢 大家在开心观看现在超赛的比赛之余 不要忘了欣赏安吉掌舵 就像红头一样 当超赛迷的时光真不错 就算变化莫测的水躺在不远处(直接翻有点搞笑) Danny has some major issues to determine in the short term as he attempts to put together the strongest possible team for the 2009 playoffs and for the future course of the franchise once those playoffs have ended. Aside from the games themselves, which are a source of incalculable pleasure to watch, watching Danny guide the franchise is a source of fascination and pleasure. Just like when Red was at the helm, we have a grandmaster with his hands on the wheel. It is a good time to be a Celtics' fan, even if treacherous waters lie not too far ahead. 终於结束了 寒假才有这个时间这样搞 学到满多英文单字的 整篇文下来 不知该期待还是怎样 只能说 很珍惜超赛的每场比赛 这种三巨头阵容 有发挥的这麽好(火箭...) 真的很赞阿 套句前面的话 "It is a good time to be a Celtics' fan." 大家晚安 --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.186.104 ※ 编辑: rainingdayz 来自: 61.229.186.104 (02/04 01:06)