※ 引述《solomon8355 (mon.)》之铭言： 不知那位高手可以帮我翻译或是分柝这篇文章 3Q 不敢当 ?? http://celtics.realgm.com/articles/367/20090202/what_is_the_celtics_salary_cap_situation/ 我大概翻 因为最後一句话让我点点点 What Is The Celtics' Salary Cap Situation? 超赛的薪资空间状况怎样呢? 大家都知道 2010年有很多大鱼游入自由市场 超赛有办法买到大鱼又不超过薪资空间吗? There is an occasional theme on Celtics websites of pondering if and how they could become players in the much-vaunted 2010 free agent market. Can the Cs get below the salary cap sufficiently to make a play for a superstar? There is a great deal of confusion about how the salary cap works and what the rules are for determining what is included in a team’s salary total. To help clarify matters I have done some research and consulted with experts like Larry Coon, author of the unrivaled NBA Salary Cap FAQ. Here is my report. 计画A 放弃：雷枪+年轻人 签下：Drew Gooden or Ron Artest or Ben Gordon or Lamar Odom or Chris Andersen (复数年合约) 如此便不会放掉当前的未来性 I confess at the outset that the very idea that the Celtics could get far enough below the salary cap to have sufficient capspace to sign a maximum-salary free agent seemed absurd on its face. Just adding up the contracts of the players under contract in July 2010 gets you close to the salary cap as is. That doesn’t even include the possibility of re-signing Ray Allen or any of the young players. And when one considers that Danny Ainge ’s first priority is to contend while his veteran team is still in its prime, there would be great incentive to use the mid-level exception free agent slot in the summer of 2009 to sign a quality veteran who could help the team off the bench. A player like this, say a Drew Gooden or Ron Artest or Ben Gordon or Lamar Odom or Chris Andersen, would require a multi-year deal that would all but blow-up any chance of getting beneath the cap in 2010. This would be Plan A. Play to win now, and do not sacrifice the present for the future. 但是我们都知道 Ainge连 Posey 都不愿意给四年合约 也不愿放弃年轻人 (喔不来恩你听到没 给我努力一点) bla bla bla 所以不可能(逼~) But we know by Danny’s unwillingness to sign James Posey to a four-year deal at the mid-level rate that he will not sacrifice the future for the present either. He is always thinking two or three moves ahead. You have to think if there is a path to get the Celtics a LeBron James or a Dwyane Wade in 2010, Danny Ainge will move heaven and earth to find it. 计画B 那再找一个方法不会危急到今年或是2009-10球季 作者说他参考了三个网站来估薪水 So let’s consider the plausibility of a Plan B. Let’s try to see if there is a way for the Celtics to get beneath the cap in 2010 that does not compromise the team’s ability to contend this year or in 2009-10. I am relying on the salary information from three websites; I doubt it is precise but after cross-checking I think it is close enough for our purposes. 作者提醒大家 有两点薪资空间的观念易误会 首先 为了防止超赛先不签自己的自由球员 借此暂时逃过薪资上限 进而可以去签下很贵的他队球员 所以 往往趋向於给自由球员比本来还高的薪水 Now we have to start with two often misunderstood rules about the salary cap. First, and most important, a team’s unsigned free agents count against the cap. This prevents teams from keeping its own free agents unsigned to get beneath the cap, so it can sign an expensive player, and then go way over the cap by signing its free agents. To give this provision muscle, the salary amounts for unsigned free agents tend to be much higher than their last salary. 例子： 吉祥物就是要涨价了 这让超赛必须把他让给别队签 或是更简单地 直接"放弃"他(simply renounce him @@) Brian Scalabrine, who earns $3.4 million in the last year of his contract in 2009-10, will count as a free agent against the Cs salary cap in 2010 for a whopping $6.8 million. This forces teams seeking to clear capspace to either sign their free agents, let other teams sign them, or simply renounce them to get them off the books. If a team renounces a player, it cannot then sign him, except (with a few exceptions irrelevant to the Cs situation) at a minimum contract level. 第二个大家必须了解的观念 不只联盟算薪资总额超不超过的问题 其实这个钱也代表12个球员的薪水 所以 不到12个人的话 还是要缴出最便宜的薪水(the league rookie minimum) Second, not only does the league determine a team’s salary total for cap purposes by counting all players under contract and including unsigned free agents. It also insists that there be 12 players accounted for, so if a team has less than 12, the league adds in the additional salaries at the league rookie minimum to get a team to a 12 player roster. The rookie minimum salary will be around $500,000 in 2010-11. So if a team had no players under contract and no free agents, the NBA would show it with a salary level of $6 million. Now let’s see where the Celtics stand salary-wise come the anticipated summer of 2010. 接下来是一些加加减减 作者提出他觉得应该选择谁 但是他也知道总管大人的习惯 Here are the firm contracts the Cs have for the 2010-11 season: Kevin Garnett: $18.8m Kendrick Perkins: $4.9m Paul Pierce: $21.5m That comes to: $45.2 million. The Cs have options that year for Bill Walker and JR Giddens. Let’s assume the Cs exercise those options for 2010-11. J.R. Giddens: $1.1m Bill Walker: $0.9m That takes us to five players and a cap total of $47.2 million. Then we have to deal with our two restricted free agents in the summer of 2009, Big Baby Davis and Leon Powe. If the Cs were not planning to contend in 09-10 it might be wise to let these guys go to create capspace. We are planning to contend, so I imagine Danny will work to keep them. As restricted free agents, Powe and Davis can solicit contracts from any team in the league and then the Cs have a right to match them. Powe and Davis will not be willing to settle for one-year deals, unless they are insane. What are Powe and Davis worth? That is very hard to say, and their value this season already has more gyrations than Oprah’s waist line. Looking at players in a similar situation in the summer of 2008, I think Powe and Davis are worth more than Sebastian Telfair and less than Ryan Gomes. So, for our purposes, let’s say Danny signs them to three-year deals, and for 2010-11 they are each under contract at $3 million. Leon Powe: $3m Big Baby Davis: $3m That takes us to seven players and $53.2 million. Now there is the matter of Rajon Rondo. This summer, in 2009, the Cs and Rondo could negotiate a long-term extension to kick in starting in 2010-11. The Cs might be willing to do that because they could get Rondo for less than he would get a year later if he continues to improve. Rondo might do it for the security. If the Cs and Rondo decide to do so, we are back to Plan A, because the team will not be able to get under the cap no matter what. Once Rondo gets his next contract, he will be getting paid an eight-digit salary. So for Plan B to work, Rondo and the Cs have to let him complete his fourth season and then become a restricted free agent in 2010. An unsigned Rondo in the summer of 2010 will count three-times his 2009-10 salary, or $6.3 million, for salary cap purposes. Rajon Rondo: $6.3m That takes us to eight players and $59.5 million. (Now, mind you, if the Cs are able to sign a free agent in the summer of 2010, the immediate order of business thereafter would be to sign the restricted free agent Rondo to a long-term deal.) Now that leaves six players that the Cs will have who are free agents in 2010: Gabe Pruitt, Patrick O’Bryant, Eddie House, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Ray Allen. Recall, as with Rondo, each of these players count against the 2010-11 salary cap for the Celtics at a much higher rate than their 09-10 salary. The “cap hold” figure against the cap for T. Allen, Scalabrine and House are over $5 million each so they have to be renounced. Let’s assume that the Cs decide that one of Gabe Pruitt and Patrick O’ Bryant show sufficient promise that the Cs do not renounce him. For our purposes, let’s assume it is Gabe Pruitt. Therefore we assume Patrick O’ Bryant is renounced. Gabe Pruitt: $1.6m That takes us to nine players and $61.1 million. And this means we have to renounce Ray Allen, too. He counts as a max contract against the cap until he is resigned for less, signed by another team, or renounced. Nice knowing you, Ray. Then, finally, the Cs will have a first round pick in the 2010 draft. Unless the Cs trade the pick for a future pick or renounce the pick – unlikely – it will count against the cap. For our purposes, let’s assume it is a low pick and the cap hit will be $1.2 million. No. 1 pick: $1.2m So that takes us to a roster of ten players and a cap payroll of $62.3 million. For the finishing touch, we have to add in two more rookie minimum contract players to account for slots 11 and 12. Minimum-salary player, roster spot #11: $0.5m Minimum-salary player, roster spot #12: $0.5m That takes us to a roster of 12 players (for cap purposes) and a payroll of $63.3 million. The Cap will be no more than $61 million in 2010-11, if even that high in the midst of a depression. This seems to foreclose the idea of getting under the cap if we wish to contend. 计画B似乎是可行的! 但是... But, to put the matter to rest once and for all, let’s see how far below the cap the Celtics could get if Danny became obsessed with the idea, yet still wanted to contend in 2009-10. This is what he could do. (Remember, we can remove salaries, but, when we do, we have to add in $0.5 million to account for a minimum salary roster spot.) First, the Cs would have to sign a veteran big to a one-year MLE deal in 2009, say a Rasheed Wallace, and then let either Powe or Big Baby leave. Assuming Wallace is renounced in 2010, we now have the cap total down to $60.8 million. Then, maybe go ahead and renounce Gabe Pruitt and trade the 2010 no. 1 pick to someone for a future no. 1 pick, or whatever we can get down the road. That gets the cap total down to $59 million. Likewise, do not pick up the options in Bill Walker and J.R. Giddens. That gets the salary cap total down to $58 million. Then, the biggie. Paul Pierce is owed $21.5 million in 2010-11. But Pierce also has the right to opt out of his contract. Have Pierce opt out and then immediately sign a new four-year deal with the Cs starting at $10 million in 2010-11, with annual million dollar raises. So Paul sacrifices $21.5 million in one season to get $46 million for four seasons. Would he do it? Possibly. If Paul plays out the original deal, he will become an unrestricted free agent approaching age 34 in 2011. Will there be teams willing to give him a three-year deal then worth $25 million? Possibly, but possibly not. Paul might just like the security and the chance to finish his career in Boston. And the prospect of getting another star on the team. So Paul does that deal and we are down to $46.5 million, for a 12-man roster. We are still a good four million dollars away from the max contract salary that Wade, James, Bosh, Yao and the other free agents will be eligible to command, and that many teams will be in a position to provide. We have no reason to think any superstar will forgo what would be around $25 million over the course of a contract to play in Boston. Especially to join a team consisting of four other veterans and seven minimum wage players. (The Cs would lose their MLE and other exceptions in order to get under the cap and sign a free agent.) 结论..... There is no way Danny considers such an approach. It would be general manager suicide. 总管大人绝对不可能 在2010再找来大明星 如果做了是主管的自杀行为 Let’s purge it from our considerations. The Celtics will not be under the cap in 2010. 所以咧 请大家放弃这种想法吧 超赛绝对无法在2010控制自己的薪资总额的....(给他爆...) 不好意思 我打点心得~ 从作者的选择和他分析安吉的想法 皆可以看出 这支队伍里面各球员的重要性... 首先 PP不用说 灵魂人物 KG也是很重要 不过在考虑RA时都放在比较後面的地方... 这也满实际的 但是自己满喜欢雷枪的所以哭哭 另外下一个层级的 Perks House当做工具人想吧 Rondo是球队的未来 可以给长约 再下一个层级的 就比较是交易的筹码了 可以考虑换立刻有功能的ex Artest 或是换未来选秀 总之 我觉得这支球队真的已经很了不起了 很珍惜这种组合(可惜没去年的Posey Brown和自动变成教练的外星人) 超赛加油! 再冲一个冠军吧~ 很少po文 有问题请小力鞭 thx --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.186.104 ※ 编辑: rainingdayz 来自: 61.229.186.104 (02/03 19:48)