作者kart (=\)
看板Cavaliers
标题[外电] 回顾骑士-灰狼交易
时间Sat Jan 9 08:58:20 2016
今天看到ESPN一篇球评的文章,
写的大致也是我的感想,就翻译一下好了
简单的说,Wiggins虽然有潜力但是发展上跟当初若留他的期待上有落差,
而Love的强项却能跟骑士现有阵容互补
骑士灰狼各取所需,是个双赢的交易。
Did the Cavaliers win the Andrew Wiggins-Kevin Love trade?
骑士在这笔交易中是赢家吗?
The trade the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves made
17 months ago will go down as one of the most fascinating in NBA
history. The deal, headlined by Kevin Love going to Cleveland and
Andrew Wiggins to Minnesota, involved the eventual Rookie of the
Year (Wiggins) and a three-time All-Star in his prime (Love).
17个月前骑士和灰狼做了一笔惊天动地的交易。
内容主要是用一个新秀状元(之後拿到了年度菜鸟奖)
换来一个正处於颠峰的三度全明星球员
A year and a half later, we can still reasonably pose the
question: When Cleveland traded Wiggins, the No. 1 overall pick,
for Love, did they win or lose the deal?
一年半过去了,我们还是可以问这个问题:
骑士选择交易Wiggins,到底是赢还是输了呢?
As the teams prepare to meet tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN 8 PM
ET), there's no question the Timberwolves would make the trade
again, with Wiggins and 2015 top pick Karl-Anthony Towns emerging
as the cornerstones of a promising young team.
两队等会儿就要开战,毫无疑问灰狼如果重来一次,他们也肯定
会做这个交易,现在的他们有着两个年轻的基石-
Wiggins + Karl-Anthony Towns
Despite the potential Wiggins has flashed at age 20, however, the
Cavaliers also have to be satisfied with the results of the trade
given their very different needs as a team.
然而,即使拥有年轻20岁肉体的Wiggins前程似锦,骑士队应该也要对
交易所带来的球队变化感到满意才是。
What if Wiggins were in Cleveland?
如果Wiggins在骑士队?
When LeBron James decided to return to the Cavaliers as a free
agent weeks after they drafted Wiggins, fans envisioned the two
No. 1 picks teaming up on the wing, a la Michael Jordan and
Scottie Pippen, with Wiggins eventually supplanting James as the
team's centerpiece. But the way Wiggins has developed in Minnesota
hasn't matched that ideal scenario.
当Lebron决定回归克城之後,不少粉丝梦想着两个状元一起扛着
重要的球队2-3号位,很自然的联想到MJ-Pippen的完美组合,
然而Wiggins这一年半在灰狼的发展却跟当时的想像相去甚远。
While Wiggins is ahead of schedule as a scorer, averaging 20.1
points per game in his second season, the rest of his game lags
behind. As I've discussed with fellow Insider Chad Ford, Wiggins
has yet to translate his immense athleticism into box-score
production at the defensive end.
Wiggins的确在得分爆发力这点上超乎人们预期,本季已经能
平均得20.1分。但是他其他技能上却低於当时人们的预测。
我和我的同事Chad Ford就曾经深刻撰文讨论过Wiggins目前为止
还没有把他巨大的天赋转化到防守端上。
The 6-foot-8 Wiggins is grabbing just 7.3 percent of available
defensive rebounds, putting him near the bottom 10 among all
players who have seen at least 500 minutes of action, and his
steal rate (1.1 per 100 plays) is below average for a shooting
guard (1.6). Pippen he is not.
这位6尺八寸的二年级生目前仅仅只能抓到所有可抓的防守篮板里的7.3%,
这数字是本季打了500分钟以上的球员里的倒数十名。
而他的抄截数- 每100次只有1.1次也远低於一般2号位的均值 (1.6)。
很明显他不是Pippen级别的防守者。
At this stage of his career, Wiggins' best skill is his ability to
create his own shot. He's using 28.6 percent of the
Timberwolves' plays to attempt a shot, get to the foul line or
commit a turnover, the highest usage rate for a second-year player
since 2012-13, according to Basketball-Reference.com. But Wiggins
hasn't been a particularly efficient scorer, making just 46.6
percent of his 2-point attempts and 23.5 percent of his 3s.
目前看来,Wiggins的最佳技术在於他能寻找出手机会。
他的USG%是自从2012-13年以来的二年级生的最高值,达到28.6%。
但是Wiggins本身并不是一个有效率的得分者,他的两分球命中率
仅有46.6%,三分球仅有23.5%。
The last thing Cleveland needs, when healthy, is another shot
creator. James is one of the league's most efficient creators, and
the last sophomore with a higher usage rate than Wiggins just
happened to be Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving. Because of
their presence, Love has seen his own usage rate dip from 28.8
percent his final season in Minnesota to 21.7 percent in 2014-15
and 23.5 percent so far this season.
当骑士对健康的时候,他们最不需要的就是另一个能创造自己投篮机会
的球员。Lebron身为联盟这一方面最有效率的球员,而KI则是前面提到
那唯二在二年级USG%就高达28.6%以上的人。
事实上因为Lebron和KI,Love的USG%从28.8%降到去年的21.7%和今年
的23.5%。
A smaller role would help Wiggins' efficiency, to some extent, but
it wouldn't highlight his strengths. For the most part,
Cleveland's other wing players besides James have been used as
spot-up shooters, and Wiggins struggles in that role.
当然,Wiggins若在骑士不会有这麽高的USG%,所以他的效率或许会
略优。然而骑士需要他的地方,目前为止他也没有展现出来。
换句话来说,拥有Lebron的骑士,在另一个侧翼球员的选择上必定
是一个3D球员,能防守,并且有精准的定点投射能力,而Wiggins
并不适合这个角色。
According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, 38 percent
of plays involving the Cavaliers' non-LeBron wings have come in
spot-up situations, and they've collectively posted an effective
field-goal percentage (eFG, which weights 3-pointers as 1.5 field
goals to reflect their added value) of 57.7 percent on those
shots.
用官网的统计来看,在非Lebron的侧翼球员里,有38%的投射都是
定点投射。而这些球员很有效率的有着eFG% 57.7%。
By contrast, just eight percent of Wiggins' plays have been spot-
up attempts, and he's got a dismal 35.6 percent eFG on those
plays.
相反的,Wiggins的投射中只有8%是定点投篮,而且eFG%只有可悲的
35.6%。
Wiggins in Cleveland wouldn't have been all bad, of course. He
already has proved to be an excellent post-up scorer, shooting
48.6 percent in post opportunities, according to Synergy, and
could have taken advantage of smaller defenders playing shooting
guard next to James.
当然,Wiggins若留在骑士并不会全是坏的,他已经证明他是个出色的
低位得分者(48.6%低位命中率),而如果他留下来打2号位,
那这个数字只会更优(因为对到较小的防守者)。
Still, the developing Wiggins doesn't fit what the Cavaliers need
from their wing players -- floor spacing and perimeter defense --
nearly as well as lesser talents like Iman Shumpert and J.R.
Smith.
不论如何,Wiggins发展出来的技能并不适合骑士的需要。
有着香波和JR的骑士队现在能在这些点上做得更好。
How does Love fit in?
那来谈谈爱吧?
Meanwhile, for all the concern about how Love has fit in (or fit
out), Cleveland has been rolling along. Since David Blatt went to
a lineup with a healthy Irving at point guard and Tristan Thompson
at center in place of Timofey Mozgov, the Cavaliers are 5-0 and
the starters are outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per 100
possessions, per NBA.com/Stats.
同时间,当大家还在关心Love是在fit in还是fit out时候,
骑士队并没有停下进步的脚步。自从Blatt把TT换成先发,和健康的KI回归
骑士拿下五连胜,而且这组先发阵容可以在
每100次球权中赢对手20.1分!
More generally, Cleveland has been outstanding when Love plays
with Thompson this season, posting a plus-14.1 net rating per 100
possessions -- far better than the Cavaliers' plus-1.0 net rating
when Love plays with Mozgov. As impressive, Love-Thompson lineups
have allowed just 98.3 points per 100 possessions, a rate that
would put them fourth in the league. (Cleveland ranks seventh
overall in defensive rating.)
一般而言,本季的比赛中,当Love和TT同时在场上时他们打得极为出色。
在
每100次球权中能赢对手14.1分 -- 这数据远比Love和
马仔狗一起上场时为优(1.1分/100球员)。同样令人惊艳的还有他们
两人搭挡扛内线时的防守效率,在每一百次球权中仅让对手得98.3分,
这可以让骑士防守排到全联盟第四(目前为第七)
There's one lineup combination that has been even better for the
Cavaliers this season: Love at center and James at power forward.
That combo has outscored opponents by an incredible 28.9 points
per 100 possessions in 70 minutes, posting a 122.9 offensive
rating and, more remarkably, a stout 94.0 defensive rating.
不过这还不是本季骑士最屌的组合,骑士本季最有效率的组合是
Love打中锋,Lebron打大前的时候,在
每100次球权中能赢对手28.9分
即使仅短短出现过70分钟,但是有着进攻指数122.9和防守指数94.0的夸张
效率。
(注:这让我想到季初勇士的超级五小好像是+3x-4x/100球权?^^)
It remains to be seen how effective Love at center can be over
longer stretches, given his limitations as a rim protector, but it
makes sense that a smaller lineup would create better looks for
Cleveland on offense.
当然因为Love并不是出色的禁区防守者,他打五号的时间会有多长
不无疑问,但是很显然小阵容能让骑士的进攻更有效率。
Though Love hasn't been an outstanding 3-point shooter since
joining the Cavaliers, making 36.6 percent of his attempts the
past season and a half, opponents still must respect his outside
shooting. That has opened things up for James, in particular. Each
of the past two seasons, James has shot much more accurately in
terms of effective field-goal percentage with Love on the court.
另外虽然Love在骑士以来的三分命中率并不特别出色,只有36.6%,
对手球员还是必须要去防守他的三分投射。而拉开空间这点帮助了Lebron。
事实上Lebron的投篮命中率跟Love在不在场上息息相关。
LeBron needs Love
Lebron需要爱
Season eFG with Love eFG without
2014-15 .555 .497
2015-16 .552 .457
For the same reason Wiggins' shot creation wouldn't be as valuable
in Cleveland, Love is never going to maximize his individual
skills playing with James and Irving. But that's true almost any
time that star players team up, and Love brings enough
complementary skills to the table that he can still be dangerous
in a smaller role.
同样的道理,Wiggins的投篮则并不会帮助骑士太多。Love在骑士
的确无法最大化自己的个人表现,但是这对多明星球队而言并非新闻。
Love有办法在有限的空间里让自己对骑士团队起到帮助。
That's what distinguishes him from the current version of Wiggins,
and that's what makes both Cleveland and Minnesota winners of the
trade.
而这也是为什麽Love比Wiggins更适合骑士的原因。当然这也让骑士和
灰狼都是交易中的赢家。
============================
这篇文章我觉得大致说得没错 ->
在有限空间里Love所会的技能对骑士较有帮助,Wiggins则属於
需要球队给他帮助。
即使我对Love也有失望的时候,不过Wiggins在也并不会改变Love没做好
的那些地方。
当然如果这交易没成,後续一些交易也不会出现,也许现在大家也还在
烦恼要怎麽丢掉服务生。
不过看来每年对到灰狼都会来回顾一下这交易,至少我是觉得这交易
是很正确的,能实在的,即时的,帮助到骑士。
别忘了骑士过去一整年有Love-KI-LBJ的战绩是40-4,没有後悔的理由 ^^
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 96.232.95.68
※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Cavaliers/M.1452301102.A.1E4.html
1F:推 JayFans0610: 看Wiggins的表现我认为交易走Wiggins是正确的 XD 01/09 09:06
2F:→ JayFans0610: 就像Yahoo那篇文中Love说的,这是一个正确的交易 01/09 09:06
3F:→ JayFans0610: 去年的受伤基本上就是突发状况,撇开受伤交易很棒 01/09 09:07
4F:→ JayFans0610: 很多人都只着眼於Love的数据、表现,而忽略了他在场 01/09 09:09
5F:→ JayFans0610: 上对骑士的进攻是有很大的Buff作用,特别是在有KI跟 01/09 09:10
6F:→ JayFans0610: LeBron这两位顶级切入球员的情况下 01/09 09:10
7F:推 Jotard: 昨天在总版看到相关文章 joulin在推文电酸民电到语无伦次 01/09 09:17
8F:推 cherngru: 电酸民电到语无论次是什麽鬼XDD 01/09 09:22
9F:推 Jotard: 哈 我的意思是joulin大把酸民电到语无伦次啦 上面没打好 01/09 09:25
10F:→ kaede0711: 蛮马後炮,AW在骑士就会往不同方向养成,拿在灰狼打出 01/09 12:35
11F:→ kaede0711: 的型态直接套用在骑士的定位去想像根本没意义,Love能 01/09 12:35
12F:→ kaede0711: 带来的优缺点也是本来就能想像的 01/09 12:35
13F:→ gigiii1134: AW的防守与跳投会因为在骑士养一年就远胜灰狼吗? 01/09 14:28
14F:推 jinpenchi: 有可能阿,国王不会养成不少球员1季不到就丢了 01/09 14:45
15F:→ jinpenchi: 灰狼养成系统仅次於国王,如果没稍微有天分不可能还留 01/09 14:45
16F:→ jinpenchi: 在队上,不过换约期就差不多见真章了 01/09 14:46
17F:→ jinpenchi: 在骑士本来就不可能有甚麽球权,只能练三分和防守吧 01/09 14:47
18F:→ jinpenchi: 骑士其实还是亏的,从薪资上来讲和上季季初荒腔走板来 01/09 14:47
19F:→ jinpenchi: 看,正常也要季前把所有阵容用好,结果季中又被抢了一 01/09 14:48
20F:→ jinpenchi: 次,现在有可能不会留Moz和Delly来讲的话....... 01/09 14:49
21F:→ jinpenchi: 未来正常的话战力只会越来越弱 01/09 14:49
22F:→ kaede0711: 说应该要用可爱或是PG那种养成方式根本没考虑到他们那 01/09 16:55
23F:→ kaede0711: 种养法是因为队上本来就有一哥,AW去灰狼根本没有这种 01/09 16:55
24F:→ kaede0711: 球员,养成方式当然不可能跟还在骑士一样 01/09 16:55
25F:推 joulin: Delly一定要刘的 谁说不会刘? 01/09 17:06
26F:推 JayFans0610: 追究这些也没有用了 事实就是Wiggins现在不要说Gay 01/09 17:11
27F:推 JayFans0610: 论三分论防守他都不如Shump 我不就不信他在骑士就能 01/09 17:14
28F:→ JayFans0610: 成长的多快 01/09 17:16
29F:推 arenasis: 如果球团能很耐心的以建立体系为优先,并且老板跟LeBron 01/09 18:20
30F:→ arenasis: 都愿意放缓脚步促成这种文化的建立,那便可以不用交易 01/09 18:21
31F:→ arenasis: Wiggins,实际上办不到 01/09 18:21
32F:→ arenasis: 所以要冲冠就专心走下去 01/09 18:22
33F:→ arenasis: 但是我想过一个假设,如果选进Wiggins/LeBron归来,但是 01/09 18:23
34F:→ arenasis: Love并没有被摆上交易,那骑士会干嘛? 01/09 18:23
35F:推 JayFans0610: 寻求交易AGG吧 XD 01/09 18:24
36F:→ arenasis: 有道理:P 01/09 18:28
37F:推 jinpenchi: 我只是要说帐面上论球员上好像双赢,其实骑士根本亏惨 01/09 19:21
38F:→ jinpenchi: 而且Delly和Moz今年暑假跑掉机率很大....这样又白白浪 01/09 19:22
39F:→ jinpenchi: 费了两个首轮选秀签 01/09 19:22
40F:推 jinpenchi: 如果多敖个一年还有AGG的选项,也不会被TT要大约了 01/09 19:25
41F:→ jinpenchi: 总之一手好牌打成这样,今年没夺冠 Griffin就可以滚了 01/09 19:25
42F:→ arenasis: Griffin能在骑士内部食物链有一席之地,是不会轻易被 01/09 19:36
43F:→ arenasis: 击败的 01/09 19:36
44F:推 tliu223: 毕竟理论上讲Love的打法更适合LBJ啊,而且要交易AGG可能 01/09 21:51
45F:→ tliu223: 就没有上季的总决赛之旅了(毕竟波特兰前一年还在季后赛 01/09 21:52
46F:→ tliu223: 不会轻易放弃当家球星的 01/09 21:52
47F:推 JayFans0610: ........... 我们上赛季打到总决时有Love? 01/09 21:57
48F:推 JackieShane: 现在一切来说都是事後诸葛,但Griffin的交易手腕还是 01/09 22:28
49F:→ JackieShane: 要批的xD,坚决批评xDDDDD 01/09 22:29
50F:推 JayFans0610: 说真的用Waiters+首轮换来射手+大锁+门神这点 01/09 22:33
51F:→ JayFans0610: 算是很值得称赞的 01/09 22:34
52F:推 tliu223: 没有啊,但AGG那时还没那么明显要走人的意愿啊,要谈判也 01/09 23:14
53F:→ tliu223: 很可能要拖到季中或季末才会有成果…… 01/09 23:14
54F:→ kart: 有Wiggins就不会有JR和香波,可能Mozgov还是会盘来,服务生 01/10 00:24
55F:→ kart: 还是会走,但是能换到什麽菜就难讲,也就是说球队的进展将要 01/10 00:24
56F:→ kart: 取决於赌注下在浅力股AW上,如果他长不出3D那一切就是泡影 01/10 00:25
57F:→ kart: 相对而言,找一个验证过的全明星Love的确是比较合理的选择 01/10 00:25
58F:→ kart: 另外这篇本来就是马後炮,而且估计每年相遇灰狼都还会再被拿 01/10 00:26
59F:→ kart: 出来检视一次,至少用马後炮来看,这交易对骑士也不亏不就好 01/10 00:26
60F:→ kart: 了吗?(何况马前炮我也认为没问题)lol 01/10 00:27
61F:→ a28200266: 为什麽tt+love防守会很好啊? 01/10 00:57
62F:→ a28200266: 理论上love防守残破(但有好转了) 应该要一个防守中锋 01/10 00:57
63F:→ a28200266: 来掩护他 但TT?而且他们两个也太矮了 为何防守数据好? 01/10 00:58
64F:→ kart: 统计显示就是比较好,阿灾? 01/10 01:32
65F:推 tliu223: 因为场上的情况不能简单的用进攻中锋、防守中锋去概括啊 01/10 08:45
66F:→ tliu223: 又高又灵活又下盘力量足又卡位好又有补防意识的中锋基本 01/10 08:47
67F:→ tliu223: 不存在的 01/10 08:47
68F:→ kaede0711: TT+Love防守会好很好理解吧,Love移动很慢强在吨位,本 01/10 10:49
69F:→ kaede0711: 来就适合跟灵活性的禁区搭配,而骑士侧翼本身机动性够 01/10 10:49
70F:→ kaede0711: 强,所以禁区只要移位正确快速别太容易被KO都有机会靠 01/10 10:49
71F:→ kaede0711: 协防补救 01/10 10:49
72F:→ kart: 但是会认为防守不好也很好理解,别忘了去年上半年这两人在场 01/10 12:10
73F:→ kart: 上有多惨,惨到非换Mozgov来救,所以现在有的变化要给球员的 01/10 12:10
74F:→ kart: 进步->按照教练要求的指示去做到好,给些掌声 01/10 12:11
75F:→ kaede0711: 上半年防守不好的因素蛮多的啦,包括LeBron刚回来时说的 01/10 12:19
76F:→ kaede0711: 球队累积太多不好习惯,还有David刚上任,还在建立体系 01/10 12:20
77F:→ kaede0711: 而TT跟Delly经过季後赛洗礼大幅进步也是其中之一 01/10 12:21
78F:→ kaede0711: 不过纯粹用数据,就算是上季,Love+TT也是禁区最好组合 01/10 12:21
79F:→ kaede0711: 反而最惨烈的是Love+大V 01/10 12:21
80F:推 JackieShane: 去年交易前其实是全队防守都惨 01/10 13:07
81F:→ JackieShane: 就整队都在混乱中,又连败又有教练信任危机,a大都说 01/10 13:09
82F:→ JackieShane: Mark Jackson已经准备要来了,然後表现就是凄惨无比 01/10 13:11
83F:→ a28200266: 原来如此 01/10 14:01
84F:推 jinpenchi: 马後炮的话,当初我是希望LBJ带3状元+阵容原封不动 01/12 22:57
85F:→ jinpenchi: 先把筹码都留者,我觉得换谁也没有可能像当时候热火那 01/12 22:58
86F:→ jinpenchi: 样感觉马上就夺冠,不如看浅力股有谁能用跟LBJ搭的留下 01/12 22:58
87F:→ jinpenchi: 隔年的话AGG离队,Love离队还是会发生,这时候在大升级 01/12 22:59
88F:→ jinpenchi: 就好,绝对不会像当初那样2状元+2签换Love 01/12 22:59
89F:→ jinpenchi: 也有可能换AGG让马刺不会再升一个档次....... 01/12 23:00
90F:→ jinpenchi: 老实讲LBJ带那堆浅力股,多少做个小交易还是东冠保证 01/12 23:01