Can Cavs cope without Shaq? PER Diem: March 1, 2010 EmailPrintComments 23 By John Hollinger ESPN.com Looking for a game-changer for the playoffs? Well, we're past the deadline for trades, so those are out, and we're past the point where a team can make a wholesale identity shift. But there's still one big destiny-shifter left on the table: injuries. 过了季中交易，唯一能影响到季後赛的不稳定因素，就是伤病了。 We saw a doozy on Thursday night, when Boston's Glen Davis chopped down on Shaquille O'Neal's hand hard enough to tear ligaments in Shaq's thumb; amazingly, no foul was called on the play. O'Neal will need surgery and miss six to eight weeks, effectively ending his regular season and suddenly leaving the Cavs scrambling for frontcourt help. 在礼拜四的夜晚，我们就看到了这不幸的一幕。 波士顿的大娃娃的一个犯规撕裂了大欧的手筋， 让人惊讶的是竟然还没有被吹犯规。 =.= 大欧将会错失6-8个礼拜，严重影响到骑士未来的前场调度。 First, let's look at the immediate ramifications. 先来看看立即的影响。 Cleveland already traded Zydrunas Ilgauskas and can't re-sign him until March 22. While all indications are that Big Z will return to Cleveland, the Cavs play 11 games prior to Ilgauskas' eligibility. It's a fairly easy stretch of schedule, but it's possible a few of those games -- at Milwaukee, at Chicago, home against Boston and San Antonio -- could hinge on Cleveland's sudden lack of size inside. 骑士在三月22号之前估计都没有中锋，因为大Z的交易。 如果大Z顺利回来，在这之前骑士也有11场比赛要打， 总的来说这11场比赛并不难，重点是对上有强硬前场的球队该怎麽办， 这包括了公鹿和公牛的客场，以及波士顿和马刺的主场。 Anderson Varejao will start at center (likely costing him any chance he had of winning the NBA Sixth Man Award), while traditional 4s like Leon Powe, Darnell Jackson and J.J. Hickson will be pressed into service as backup 5s. It's an imperfect arrangement that leaves the Cavs vulnerable to bullish centers; fortunately for Cleveland, the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum aren't on the schedule 'til Z comes back. 大V将会在这段期间扛中锋（也可能让他失去了任何还有可能 拿最佳第六人的机会），而传统的大前锋，如炮哥，Jackson和JJ 也有可能被拉去打中锋。这当然对骑士来说是不完美的情况， 不过好运的是，这段时间不会遇到像是魔兽或是拜男这种力量型中锋。 After that date, however, Cleveland may still have issues. The 34-year-old Ilgauskas has declined noticeably this season, and while he makes a decent backup for Varejao he's not suitable for extended duty in the middle. 然而过了3/22，骑士还是大有问题。 大Z本季的衰竭非常明显，即使他和大V共扛中锋， 他也不可能扛太久了。 But as we commonly see with injuries, the biggest problem is not the replacement, but the replacement's replacement. Swapping out Shaq for Varejao isn't huge in itself, but it has several knock-on effects. For one thing, it takes one of the Cavs' most effective lineups off the table: Virtually every group that pairs Varejao and Ilgauskas has a superior plus/minus. When teaming those two with the three perimeter starters, Cleveland outscores opponents by a whopping 28 points per 100 possessions. 伤病带来的困扰，通常不是替补，而是替补的替补。 用大V代替大欧问题本身还好，重点是这个替换带来的负面效应。 最明显的是，当大V和大Z替补上阵时，在加另外三只已经证明是 骑士最有效赢对手的阵容，平均每100个攻守交换里，这样的阵容 可以惨赢对手28分。如今，因为大欧的出局，这种阵容很难出现。 That option won't be on the table for another three weeks, and even then the pairing will be rare if Ilgauskas is backing up Varejao. Additionally, it forces undersized players into the center rotation until Ilgauskas returns, and Shaq's absence eliminates a go-to option when LeBron James is off the floor. 第一，至少大Z回来前看不到。第二，大Z回来後估计也只有一人 会在场上。更别提要用小个儿去扛中锋，大欧不能打也让其他队 更好防守LBJ。 The Cavs are running away with the East, standing six games ahead of Orlando with only 22 to play for each side, and thus are virtually assured of the top seed in the East, Shaq or no Shaq. Home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers may be a casualty of O'Neal's injury -- Cleveland has only a one-game lead, which effectively becomes two games when one factors in the tiebreaker advantage -- but as far as the regular season goes, that's the main concern. 骑士队估计是能拿下东区最佳胜率，无论有没有大欧与否。 重点是他们能不能拿下联盟最佳胜率，尤其湖人才落後一场胜差。 Instead, the more crucial question is how Shaq's absence might affect Cleveland in the postseason. 最重要的是，大欧的伤会如何影响骑士的季後赛。 On this front, the news is mostly good. O'Neal is likely to return by late April, during the first round. Cleveland doesn't figure to have too much trouble getting out of Round 1 without him, even if a nemesis, Charlotte, is the first-round opponent. (The Bobcats beat Cleveland three out of four times this season.) 如果从这个角度看，或许这不是太糟。大欧估计会在四月底回归， 也就是第一轮的时间。骑士第一轮有没有大欧估计都没问题， 即使遇到季赛的克星山猫。 By the time the second round starts, O'Neal should be back, but his return might come at what could be the trickiest time of the season. Cleveland will be working him back in the rotation while locked in a tough series against (most likely) Atlanta or Boston. Atlanta, in particular, could prove a difficult environment for working a big center back into playing shape, because the Hawks' frontcourt players run the floor so well. 最晚大欧在第二轮也会付出了。但是这却是一件很巧妙的付出时间。 因为骑士要学习怎麽在对付第二轮强敌时，不管是老鹰还是Bos， 把大欧重新排回轮值，这将会是一个非常困难的情况，尤其老鹰 的前场跑动很快，不会给大欧太多找回最佳状况的空间和时间。 Here's the silver lining: By the time we get to mid-May and Cleveland has to face Orlando and/or the Lakers -- the two teams Shaq was brought in to match up against -- the Cavs should have a healthy Shaq. What's more, they should have a rested Shaq. The big fella had missed only five games this season before the hand injury and was on track to play his most games in a decade; the two-month break should allow all his other sore limbs to heal before the games that matter most. 当然最佳状况是，骑士第二轮办到了，大欧也藉由第二轮的磨练 恢复了身手，那就到五月中以後遇到魔术或是湖人了，这两队是当初 骑士签下大欧的主因。而到时候骑士会有一个很健康的大欧。不只如此， 还是一个休息够久体力够好的大欧。 受伤可以让大欧在打最重要的季後赛之前得到足够的休息。 Whether that silver-lining scenario becomes relevant depends on what kind of shape he'll come back in, and how quickly the Cavs can regain their on-court chemistry with Shaq. Newly acquired Antawn Jamison, in particular, will barely have played with Shaq when the conference finals begin, while all the other Cavs will have to adjust to shifting roles when he returns. 当然上面最佳情况存在於否在於大欧以什麽样的体态回来，和骑士 能在多短的时间内让磨合大欧回来後的阵容。 别忘了，杰米神几乎没跟大殴打过几场。 其他队员也要重新适应大欧回来後他们的新角色。 If Shaq returns as the force he was in January and February, that won't be an issue. O'Neal played some of his best basketball before the injury, shooting better than 60 percent from the field with nearly 14 points a game after Jan. 1. Unfortunately, he has a habit of letting himself go when he's not in-season. If that happens again and he returns as the slow, plodding Shaq of November and December, the Cavs could have a serious problem. 如果大欧以一月或二月的状态付出，那这些都不是问题了。 大欧在2010年平均命中率破六成，每场能得14分。 不过大欧有个坏习惯就是当他不打球时，他就会变成欧肥。 如果到时後是欧肥回来，那骑士的季候赛就有很大的问题了。 Thus, while this injury tremor isn't of the magnitude of Kevin Garnett's season-ending knee injury last spring, Shaq's absence could have a major impact on the postseason. Losing him at the same time Ilgauskas serves his 30-day furlough could end up costing Cleveland the home-court advantage in a Finals matchup with the Lakers, and it could sidetrack the increasingly comfortable on-court chemistry among the Cavs' offseason pickups. 所以虽然大欧的伤不会像去年假奶的伤造成一样严重的影响， 但是也会有很巨大的效应，尤其在季候赛里面。 最糟的状况是，骑士失去了主场优势，而且化学效应也被打乱。 But mostly, it could allow Shaq to tack on a few pounds and reduce his effectiveness for the games that matter most. If he can keep up his conditioning, the impact of his injury should be negligible. Based on his history, however, that outcome is very much in question. 不过现阶段最有可能的是，大欧变成欧肥。如果复健中的大欧 能保持身体状态，那受伤造成的影响就会减到最低。 不过以往年的大欧来看，大欧变成欧肥的机会不小....囧。 基本上，我觉得後两段就是我最担心的，虽然大欧变成功能性球员 不过就因为这样，所以「功能」在不在很重要阿， 而且还不能影响到其他功能才行，这个伤真的不是时候，哎～ --

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