The Numbers Game: Give the offense some time 从数据看比赛: 给进攻一点时间 By John Schuhmann, NBA.com Posted Dec 3 2008 1:00PM I've read a couple of published articles in the last few days either praising teams for taking a lesson from the Celtics and strengthening their defense this season or lamenting the lack of offense that we have seen across the league so far. 最近有许多篇文章称赞联盟球队从塞尔提克身上学到经验, 强化本季的防守. 也有许多 文章哀悼本季球队进攻的低落. Comparing the league-wide offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) through October and November of this season (107.3) to the league-wide rating from last season (109.1) would tell you that offense is down. Last week, in looking at which teams had improved or worsened on either side of the ball, we noted that only six teams had improved over their offensive rating from last season. 从本季十月和十一月全联盟的进攻表现(107.3)和去年整季的数据(109.1)做比较, 可以 看出进攻数据是下降的. 在上周一篇比较球队攻防两端进步与退步的文章中, 可发现只 有六队目前的进攻数据比上一季好. Maybe, in general, teams have decided that they need to be better defensive teams in order to compete in today's NBA. 也许, 大致上来说, 各球队决定加强防守来增加他们在联盟中的竞争力. Not so fast. 但别这麽快下结论. If you break down last season's numbers month by month, you will see that the league started out slowly and became more efficient offensively as the season went on. And when you compare this season's first-month rating of 107.3, it's actually up from last season's first-month rating of 106.5. 如果把上一季的数据拆开来看单月成绩, 你会发现整个联盟是相当慢热的, 进攻会逐渐 加温. 而当你比较本季首月的进攻数据(107.3), 事实上比上季首月的数据(106.5)要来 的高. 2007-08 Offensive Ratings Month Offensive Rating October-November 106.5 December 107.8 January 109.0 February 109.8 March-April 111.3 Season 109.1 Of the 30 teams, only four (Dallas, Memphis, Milwaukee and San Antonio) had higher offensive ratings on Dec. 1, 2007 than they did at the end of the season. The other 26 all became more efficient after the first month. 在30支球队中, 只有四队(小牛, 灰熊, 公鹿, 马刺) 在上季的首月进攻数据比球队全季 数据来的高. 其余26队都在随後提升了进攻数据. Further, in every season since the lockout-shortened '98-99 campaign, the league-wide offensive rating has increased from the first month. In 2002-03, it increased by more than three points per 100 possessions. The average increase over the nine seasons is 2.2 points per 100 possessions. 更进一步来看, 自从98-99缩水球季之後的每个球季, 全联盟的进攻数据在首月之後都是 上升的. 02-03年, 全季数据比首月高了三分, 九年来的平均全季进攻数据比首月高了 2.2分. Offensive Rating Through The Years Oct.-Nov. Season Increase 2007-08 106.5 109.1 2.6 2006-07 106.6 108.0 1.4 2005-06 105.2 107.7 2.5 2004-05 105.1 107.4 2.3 2003-04 102.0 104.2 2.2 2002-03 101.5 104.9 3.4 2001-02 104.4 105.8 1.4 2000-01 101.6 104.4 2.8 1999-00 103.9 105.5 1.6 It's fairly easy to come up with reasons for improved offensive efficiency as the season goes on. At the beginning of the season, teams are trying to integrate new personnel, either new players or new coaches. Chemistry and cohesiveness are clearly keys to a sharp offense. Just think about all the turnovers you see in Summer League or All-Star games, when guys are playing with each other for the first time. 这种现象是相当合理的. 在球季之初, 球队需要整合新成员, 不论是新球员还是新教练. 球队的化学效应与球员默契是提升进攻的关键. 只要看看夏季联盟和全明星赛的失误率就 知道, 和陌生的队友打球会发生什麽事. Last October and November, teams turned the ball over 16.5 times per 100 possessions. That number was down to 15.4 by the end of the season. Shooting also improved as the year went on. 去年的十月和十一月, 全联盟球队在100次进攻中, 平均发生16.5次失误. 到球季结束时, 这个数据下降到15.4次. 命中率也是在球季中会逐渐提升的. At the beginning of the season, coaches have also added new offensive sets that the players need to adjust to. And in October and November, coaches haven't even put in all of their sets, so a team may be working with an abridged playbook. As the season goes on, new sets, plays and options are added to what each team does offensively. 在球季之初, 教练也会加入一些新战术. 在十月和十一月, 教练甚至还没尝试完所有新花 样. I think that's what makes the Cavs' improvement from last year so impressive. A week after our most improved analysis, Cleveland is still the best offensive team in the league and still the team that has shown the greatest improvement on that end of the floor. 这也显得骑士队今年的进步是多麽难得. 在上周关於球队进攻方面进步程度的分析文章之 後, 骑士仍然保持着全联盟最佳的进攻数据, 同时也是与上季相比进步最多的. They're doing that while integrating a new point guard, as well as implementing some new offensive sets. You had to think that they would be improved by adding a scorer like Mo Williams to the lineup, but to be this good this early, especially when you consider the league-wide trend of starting slowly and getting better with time, makes what they've done that much more impressive. 在提升进攻的同时, 骑士还要整合他们的新控卫和适应一些新战术. 在得分好手Mo的加入 之後, 你可以预期到骑士的进攻会有进步, 但不会想到效果这麽好, 来的这麽快. 尤其是 在考量到整个联盟的慢热情况下, 骑士目前的数据更显可贵. Imagine how good Cleveland could be if Daniel Gibson, shooting just .364 from the field and .260 from downtown, starts finding his shot. The thought is pretty scary. 想像一下如果Gibson (目前命中率0.364, 三分命中率0.260)恢复手感, 骑士将会变得相 当可怕. So, for those who think games have been a little too ugly for their taste so far this season, have patience. The offense will come around. The numbers don't lie. 所以对於那些觉得本季比赛乏味的人们, 请多点耐心. 进攻将会提升. 数据不会骗人. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 192.35.79.70 ※ chucloud:转录至看板 NBA 12/04 05:01