原文: http://goo.gl/X39JyI Trade winds blow in NL Central With the 30 major-league teams returning to the field Friday after pausing for the annual All-Star game rest stop, it's time for owners and general managers to make a realistic assessment of their postseason chances. 一年一度的明星赛假期过後，30支大联盟球队又要重新回到场上进行下半季的捉对厮杀， 而球团老板和总管也该是时候评估球队打进季後赛的机会有多少了。 The addition of a second wild-card playoff ticket in each league keeps more teams in the chase for October. It also puts some owners and GMs in a delusional state of mind, seeing opportunities that really don't exist. 两张外卡制的实施让更多球队有机会竞逐季後赛，但也让一些老板和总管对於那不太存在 的机会有些不太实际的妄想。 The baseball bosses look at the standings and find reasons to avoid reality. Baseball writers fuel the optimism by offering hopeful sentences such as this: "At the All-Star break, 16 teams were within six games of a playoff spot, and 27 lurked a mere 8.5 games out." 球团老板们边盯着排名，边找些理由说服自己逃避现实。棒球作家们则藉由这样看似充满 希望的分析来让人们保持乐观：「截至明星赛，有16支球队距离季後赛只有6场胜差，更 有27队仅仅落後8.5场。」 It creates false hope. It's difficult for a competitor to disengage, but it's even worse to keep your team spinning in a cycle of mediocrity. The pain of rebuilding can be severe, but it's worth the long-term gain. 这样的希望非常不切实际，要摆脱竞争对手的纠缠很困难没错，但让球队一直处在不上不 下的窘境中更是糟糕，重建让人感到煎熬，但长期下来是绝对值得的。 It makes more sense to offload pending free agents and untenable contracts and replenish your roster with younger, payroll-friendly talent that can lead the way to a better future. 卖掉即将进入市场待价而沽的准自由球员和清掉一些大合约，并补进一些便宜又充满天份 的年轻人才是通往美好未来的正确之途。 As the July 31 trade deadline draws closer, let's take a look at the teams in the National League Central. 在7/31交易大限逐渐逼近之际，我们就来一起看看国联中区的球队可能会有的动作吧。 For the contenders: what do they need to augment the roster? How aggressive will they be? 对於买家：他们需要什麽来补强阵容？ 他们应该要多积极？ As for the pretenders: are they attached to reality? 对於卖家：他们真的有考量到现实面吗？ (仅节录红雀的部份) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Record: 56-33, with the No. 1 win percentage (.629) in the MLB. Standings: 1st place, but now only 2.5 ahead of the Pirates after leading them by nine games on June 28. Playoff Odds: Division title, 72 pct. Playoffs, 98.3 pct. 圣路易红雀队 56胜33败 胜率.629 大联盟排名第1 目前排在分区首位，但6/28时领先海盗的9场现在只剩下2.5场 晋级季後赛机率：98.3% （分区冠军72%） Problems: In their first 50 games played in April-May, the Cards averaged 4.2 runs, batted .268, had a .333 OBP and a .404 slugging percentage. But in their 39 games since the beginning of June, they're averaging 3.7 runs, batting .242, have a .310 OBP and a .368 SLG. That represents a loss of a half-run per game, and an OPS that's dropped by 58 points. Another issue is an increased strikeout rate, since June 1 the Cardinals have the seventh-worst K rate in the majors, with a strikeout every 4.6 plate appearances. Their batting average with runners in scoring position was .265 over the first two months, but it's only .242 since June 1. The injury absence of left fielder Matt Holliday is a factor in the offensive decline, but the problems run deeper than that. The production at first base has collapsed, with the Cardinals ranking 28th at the position in onbase percentage (.285) and 28th in slugging (.370.) Mark Reynolds and the other first basemen have combined for a 30 percent strikeout rate. The production in center field is low, with 25 RBIs and a poor .640 OPS. These factors and Matt Carpenter's lengthy slump have caused a rather dramatic downturn on offense. And it won't be automatically solved by Holliday's return (presumably Friday) from the DL. 隐忧： 在四、五月的前50场比赛，红雀平均打下4.2分，打击三围.268/.333/.404，但自六月後 的39场比赛，他们的平均得分掉到3.7分，三围剩下.242/.310/.368，每场比赛少得半分 ，OPS也掉了58个千分点。另一个问题是三振率的增加，自6/1以来红雀每4.6打席就会被K 一次的被三振率是联盟第七高。前两个月的得点圈打击率有.265，但6/1後剩下.242。左 外野手Matt Holliday的因伤缺阵是打线熄火的主因，但问题可能不止於此，红雀在一垒 位置的输出简直是个悲剧，上垒率.285和长打率.370都排在倒数第三，Mark Reynolds和 其他一垒手加起来的三振率更高达30％。中外野位置25分打点和.640 OPS的输出也很贫弱 。还有Matt Carpenter的大低潮更是影响打线甚钜，而这样的情况是不会因为Holliday的 伤癒归队而自动变好的。 Buyer or Seller: If GM John Mozeliak isn't a buyer, there's going to be some unhappy Cardinals and protests from howling-mad fans. Mozeliak doesn't usually hide in July. Late last July he made one trade that didn't work (the acquisition of damaged starting pitcher Justin Masterson) and one that paid off in a big way: he deal with Boston that delivered starting pitcher John Lackey. The problem for Mozeliak is a thinned farm system that's relatively low on tradable commodities. 买家还卖家？ 如果总管John Mozeliak不打算当买家，大概会惹来很多愤怒红雀迷的抗议。Mozeliak通 常不会在七月的交易缺席，去年七月交易来的Justin Masterson没有多大作用，而另一笔 和红袜盘来的先发投手John Lackey则是物超所值。但Mozeliak得面临农场越来越贫脊的 困境。 Most coveted Redbird: That would be starting-pitching prospect Alex Reyes, who recently moved up to the No. 17 spot on an updated Top 50 prospects list presented by ESPN's Keith Law. Other wish-list candidates would likely include starting pitchers Marco Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky and Jack Flaherty, hard-throwing reliever Sam Tuivailala, outfielders Stephen Piscotty, Anthony Garcia and Magneuris Sierra, infielder Jacob Wilson and shortstop Edmundo Sosa. 最有交易价值的球员？ 刚晋升新秀排行第17名的先发投手Alex Reyes。其他可能的人选还有先发投手Marco Gonzales、Rob Kaminsky和Jack Flaherty、速球派的後援投手Sam Tuivailala、外野手 Stephen Piscotty、Anthony Garcia和Magneuris Sierra、内野手Jacob Wilson和游击手 Edmundo Sosa。 What the Cardinals need: Other than a jolt for their tired offense the Cardinals could use extra rotation depth in case Jaime Garcia breaks down, or if young starters Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez show signs of fatigue as the innings accumulate. Gonzales has been a non-factor in the equation because of left-arm miseries. He's making headway on a return, and could help down the stretch. (Or perhaps not.) And even though the Cards expect setup reliever Jordan Walden to make it back from the DL in the near future, it might be wise to add another veteran reliever because of manager Mike Matheny's tendency to push Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Oh, and fewer injuries would be nice. 红雀需要什麽？ 除了补强近期有些疲软的打线之外，红雀也该增强轮值深度，以免Jaime Garcia报销或是 Michael Wacha和Carlos Martinez两位年轻投手有疲劳的现象。Gonzales因为左肩的伤势 一直帮不上忙，但他正为了归队努力，或许之後能有些帮助。另外虽然红雀预估布局投 手Jordan Walden即将归队，因应Mike Matheny过去对Trevor Rosenthal和Kecvin Siegrist的使用程度，再多一位有经验的牛棚人手会是个聪明的选择。噢还有，少点伤兵 会更好。 Tethered to reality? You bet. Mozeliak is an established pragmatist, and that's one of his best attributes. But Mozeliak isn't afraid to step out and make a risky move that causes considerable chirping within the baseball fraternity and the usual national-media bureaus. We saw that with the successful Lackey deal; at first Mozeliak was widely ripped for giving up young starting pitcher Joe Kelly. Well, the engaging Kelly was a media hit in Boston, but his wayward pitching led to a demotion to the minors. There was shock and dismay when Mozeliak signed shortstop Jhonny Peralta to a four-year, $53 million contract before the 2014 season. (That seems to have worked out OK.) Mozeliak struck again last winter when he bartered young starting pitchers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for right fielder Jason Heyward and Walden. Will Mozeliak put on his Mohatma bow tie and come out and play? That's one of the more intriguing questions looming as MLB's second half gets underway. 付诸现实的可能性？ 当然。Mozeliak是个毫无疑问的实用主义者，而这也是他几个很好的特质之一，他并不会 畏惧做一些大胆的交易，我们可以从Lackey那比成功的交易略知一二，一开始大家都很不 能接受放弃年轻的先发投手Joe Kelly，结果Kelly现在在波士顿被打爆了，还被下放到小 联盟。当2014季前Mozeliak以四年5300万签下游击手Jhonny Peralta时大家都很错愕，结 果看来不错。Mozeliak去年冬天又把先发投手Shelby Miller和Tyrell Jenkins交易到勇 士换来右外野手Jason Heyward和Walden。Mozeliak下半季又会怎麽出手绝对会让人非常 耐人寻味。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 114.24.59.15 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Cardinals/M.1437745891.A.423.html ※ 编辑: yi5849 (114.24.59.15), 07/24/2015 21:54:33