http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/26/scouting-jason-motte/ I sat down to take a look at a couple of Motte’s outings. I’ve probably watched Motte throw about 10 innings on video so far this year so I’m pretty familiar with him. I charted the pitches from 6/8 & 6/10 to see whether he’s made any adjustments over the course of the season. The 6/8 outing was excellent where Motte strikes out 4 hitters allowing just a double to JR Towles. The 6/10 game left a little more to be desired. I’ll talk about that more at the end but let’s get the pitch sequence and notes out of the way. Notation: FB - fastball, SL - slider, F - foul, B - ball, CS - called strike, SS - swinging strike, ##s indicate mph 7th Inning: Saccomanno: 1-FB(F) 93, 2-FB(SS) 95, 3-FB(SS) strikeout Notes: Motte replaced Jaime Garcia with 2 outs in the 7th. The announcers repeatedly mentioned that the MEM gun was 2-3mph slow. I’m writing what was on the gun so mentally add to that number throughout this entire post. 8th Inning: Sadler: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(B), 3-FB(B) 97, 4-FB(F), 5-FB(SS) 97 strikeout Gorneault: 1-SL(CS), 2-SL(CS), 3-FB(SS) strikeout Towles: 1-FB(CS) 98, 1-SL(double) Ramirez: 1-FB(CS), 2-SL(B), 3-FB(SS), 4-FB(F), 5-FB(F), 6-FB(SS) strikeout Notes: The ump gave Motte about 3 inches on both sides of the plate, which helped tremendously. Towles was fooled on the slider and was ahead of the pitch just barely keeping it in the third baseline. Yes the slider does exist, more on that later. 6/10/08 - 8th Inning: Blanco: 1-FB(single) Patterson: 1-FB(B), 2-FB(single) Pie: 1-FB(F), 2-FB(bunt) Murton: 1-FB(B), 2-SL(CS) 82, 3-video cuts out (strike), 4-FB(B), 5-FB(B), 6-FB(F), 7-FB(SS) 96 strikeout Micah Hoffpauir: 1-FB(SS), 2-FB(B), 3-FB(F), 4-FB(B), 5-SL(F), 6-FB(SS) strikeout Kroeger: 1-FB(B), 2-SL(SS), 3-FB(B) 97, 4-FB(F), 5-FB(B) 6-FB(F) 94, 7-FB(F), 8-SL(B) 76 walk McGehee: 1-SL(flyout) Notes: The single by patterson was a good pitch — middle of the shins inside the plate — that was golfed for a hit. The Pie bunt was bungled by C Mark Johnson. The second pitch to Murton was originally called a fastball by the announcers until they saw the gun. How they thought it was a fastball is beyond me — I picked up slider from the moment it left his hand. The 2nd pitch to Hoffpauir was a wild pitch that tailed back in on the left hander. Johnson couldn’t handle the pitch but it wasn’t particuarly wild per se. The flyout to CF looks easy by Rasmus who gets a great first step and just glides under the ball effortlessly. Scouting Report Fastball - 70/70 Slider - 40/45 Command - 45/50 AOFP: 58 ETA: mid-2009 Motte’s fastball is blazing fast but relatively straight. When he locates it down in the zone, it’s a plus-plus pitch. He has enough pure velocity to blow it by most minor leaguers but that will be harder to do at the next level. When he does miss it’s typically shoulder high and gets fouled out of play. He may have left 2-3 of the 30 above fastballs over the plate. There’s not really any growth in the fastball itself unless he suddenly develops movement on the pitch, which is the only thing holding it back from being an 80. The slider isn’t a myth but it is very much a work in progress. My biggest complaint is that it doesn’t break away from right-handers enough. It’s got some decent vertical movement (which almost made me think it was a curve the first time I saw it) but the lateral break leaves a lot to be desired. I’d almost question if he’s even putting the right/enough torque on the ball when it leaves his hand. The other problem is that it’s pretty easy to recognize when he’s throwing the slider. The arm action slows a little and the arm slot just isn’t quite the same. The command issues extend to both pitches. He needs to locate his fastball down in the zone more often. He likes to move up around the shoulders to eyes and get batters to swing under it but I don’t think that’s going to be an effective strategy against major leaguers who would probably lay off the pitch. It’s not that he’s leaving too many over the fat part of the plate, it’s that he’s not throwing enough in the bottom half of the strike zone to get selective hitters out. The slider needs considerable work. He can’t command it yet and it was far more prone to turning into a meatball pitch. I’ve gone both extremes on Motte — liking him considerably and being very disappointed with what I’ve seen. I’m somewhere in the middle now. I have his AOFP at 58 mainly because he’s so new to pitching. If he improves his slider more than I expect or finds some movement on his fastball, he’ll become a closer caliber reliever. Currently he’s a fringe setup man (AOFP 52) despite the awesome velocity. Hitters who come in and swing early in the count are likely to be successful as he tries to pump fastballs down the plate. The comparison player that keeps coming to mind (although I’m not sure I like it) is Kyle Farnsworth who also featured a great fastball and not a whole lot else. They’re similar in terms of stuff but not necessarily demeanor or build. Motte has some serious potential still but I’d expect him to settle in as a middle reliever mid next year and a good setup man by mid-2010. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 本季成绩: Basic Statistics Year Age Team G W L IP TBF H 2B 3B HR R ER BB K ERA RA9 2008 26 AAA Memphis 34 3 2 36.0 169 43 9 0 2 19 18 17 58 4.50 4.75 Extended Statistics Year Age Team BB/PA K/PA BABIP GB% HR/Air FIP BsRA9 2008 26 AAA Memphis 10.1% 34.3% .461 35% 3% 2.39 5.35 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 数据解释: http://www.saberscouting.com/scoutingtutorial/ The 20-80 scale is universally used (despite murky origins) to judge baseball talent where 50 is considered major league average, and it is judged by the scout as a present and future grade for each tool for the player. Obviously, the gap between present and future gets smaller as the player gets older. The tools for a position player are hitting, hitting for power, speed, defense, and throwing arm, classically known as the 5 tools. For a pitcher, the tools are the command, movement and speed of each of their pitches. There are other things to consider such as breaking hitting and fielding down into it’s components, the player’s makeup (mental approach and character, among other things), and especially today, the financial aspects. There is a steep bell curve in the major leagues for each tool, regressed to the average grade of 50. There are about as many 45s (below-average) as 55s (above-average) for any given tool in the big leagues. A grade of 60 is known as “plus”, a grade of 70 is known as “plus-plus”, and a perfect grade of 80 is simply known as “80〃 because it’s so rare. There are only a few players in the world with any 80 tools, other than possibly running speed and fastball velocity–they are the two most common, but still not that common at all. Since so many players’ tools fall close to 50, many scouts use fringe-average and solid-average to describe things on the negative and positive side of average, respectively, that aren’t good or bad enough to be considered 45 or 55. 60-80 AOFP: Group A Pro: Elite frontline starter, Top-5 closer, Superstar, Perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Amateur: Top 5 to 10 picks in the draft 56-59 AOFP: Group B Pro: Solid #3 starter, Solid closer, Sometime All-Star, Solid, Above-Average Everyday Player Amateur: Mid-to-Late 1st and Sandwich round. 52-55 AOFP: Group C Pro: 4th and 5th starters, good set-up men, fringe closers, top situational relievers, average everyday player Amateur: 2nd to 4th rounds 48-51 AOFP: Group D Pro: Average middle and long relievers, solid situational relievers, backup positional players, platoon players Amateur: 5th to 12th rounds 45-47 AOFP: Group E Pro: Up/down roster fillers, most LOOGYs, 25th men, versatile position players or bats with no power/defensive value Amateur: 13th to 20th round 40-44 AOFP : Group F Pro: Organizational Player, will not contribute materially at major league level Amateur: 20th to 50th round --

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