※ 引述《broken543 (没多少时间好杀)》之铭言： 谢谢原po的翻译,有几个地方要稍微修正一下 : Five questions: Milwaukee Brewers : by Jeff Sackmann : March 18, 2010 : http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers5/ : From 90 wins to 80 in one season. Sure, Milwaukee fans are used to seeing the : hometown team lose, but the 2008 Wild Card changed the expectation game. : Plenty of things went right for the Brewers last year, but the starting : rotation was so, so wrong. : 一季之差，从90胜到落到了80胜。当然、酒人迷们已经习惯了球队低迷的 : 战绩，但是08年的外卡改变了大家的期待。上一季对酒人来说、很多事情 : 都做对了，但是先发轮值却是大错特错。 : Will the rotation be respectable? : 今年的轮值圈会像样点吗? : One thing is certain: It will be tough for the rotation to be worse than it : was last year. Brewers starters had an ERA of 5.37 last year (last in the : National League, 0.40 behind 15th-place Washington), and that's including a : 3.73 ERA from Yovani Gallardo. We could look at some more advanced stats, but : they all tell about the same story. : 只有一件事可以肯定：那就是轮值要比去年还烂，是件不太可能的事。 : 酒人的先发们去年创下了ERA5.37的成绩(国联垫底，比倒数第二的国民还 : 高了0.4)，而且其中算进了Gallardo的3.73。我们可以查一下进阶数据， : 但是结论并不会有什麽差别。 : At least there are some new faces. Along with Gallardo, the top of the : rotation will include free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. Between : them, CHONE predicts that the Crew will get about 330 innings of sub-4.50 : pitching. Compared to replacement level, Wolf was a bit pricey. Compared to : the disaster that was 2009 Brewers starting pitching, Wolf is a savior. : 至少现在补进了新面孔。随着Gallardo，轮值圈顶端有了FA左投Rndy Wolf : 跟Doug Davis。CHONE预测这三人大概可以贡献330局、4.50左右的成绩。 两人 以下 : 以替换层面来看，Wolf还真有点贵。但跟去年酒人先发的灾难来比较，Wolf 跟replacement level相比 : 是个救世主。 : Also reassuring is that Dave Bush and Manny Parra have track records : suggesting they are capable hurlers. Both rode a wave of poor performance and : worse luck to ERAs above 6.00 last year; CHONE projects that both will come : in under 5.00 in 2010. : 同样让人放心的还有Dave Bush和Manny Parra，他们过去的纪录说明 : 他们也是有能力的投手。去年双双因为表现差劲和歹运缴出高於6.00 : 的ERA。CHONE预测他们今年都会降到5.00以下。 : Then there's Jeff Suppan. In a logical world, the Brewers would cut him : loose, suffer the emotional pain of a $12 million sunk cost, and give his : innings to someone—anyone—else. In this world, he may well end up with a : rotation spot. He will give up a lot of runs. : 然後是Jeff Suppan。理论上来说，酒人应该要释出他、硬吃下12M薪水 : 和情绪上的伤痛，然後把他的登板机会给别人─随便一个都可以。但实 : 际上，他可能会好好待在轮值圈内，然後丢掉一堆自责分。 : Even if Suppan sticks in the rotation for most of the season, this is a : much-improved rotation. It doesn't look like a playoff-caliber one, but if : Parra (still only 27) puts things together and rebounds to something like his : 2008 season, it might be good enough to get the job done. : 就算这季硬把Suppan留在轮值圈内，这轮值还是已经大大改善了。虽然 : 看起来不像是有季後赛能力，但如果Parra可以重拾他08年的状态，在 这 : 季後赛生存也是有可能的。 个阵容还是有机会进季後赛。 : They can field, they can run, but can they hit? : 他们可以守、可以跑、但是他们能打吗? : If you're looking for reasons to watch the Brewers this year, here are two: : Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Both are among the most gifted defensive : players in the game, and they'll be manning shortstop and center field for : Milwaukee. : 如果你在找今年看酒人的理由，这里有两个：Alcides Escobar和Carlos : Gomez。两个都是极有天赋的防守球员，将会是带来惊奇的游击手和中外 将会为Milwaukee把守游击和中 : 野手。 外野 : But both also are young and come with question marks on their offense. Gomez : has over 1,000 major league at-bats under his belt, with a sub-.300 on-base : percentage to show for it. Brewers coaches are already tinkering with his : approach, and he's a candidate (along with Escobar) to bat ninth, behind the : pitcher. : 但是他们两个都还年轻、并且在进攻上让人存疑。Gomez已经在大联盟累积 : 了超过1000棒次的机会，留下了差不多.300的上垒率。酒人教练团已经因为 低於 在稍 : 他在东补西补，并且有机会让他打第九棒、排在投手後面。 微调整他的击 球方式 : Officially, the Brewers aren't expecting much from the pair, but if both : perform at the lower end of their offensive projections, it's easy to see an : anemic overall offense result. For all that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can : do, another down year from Corey Hart, a step back from Casey McGehee, and a : couple of all-field youngsters could guarantee some awfully easy innings for : opposing pitchers. : 官方上、酒人并不对他们抱有有什麽太大的期待。但如果两个都缴出期望 : 值底端的成绩，贫血的整体进攻是很有可能的。Braun跟Fielder做他们能 : 做的、Hart又让人发闷的一年、McGehee的退步，再加上一两个年轻工具人 几个只会防守其它 都不会的年轻人 : 可以保证让对手投手很好过。 : Fortunately, there is hope. Escobar got on base at a .350 clip in Triple-A : last year, and even batted .300 in his stint in the majors. He's shown solid : gap power throughout his minor league career, knocking at least 25 doubles in : each of the last two seasons. : 还好，还有个希望。Escobar去年在3A缴出了.350的上垒率，连在大联盟期间 : 打击都有.300的表现。他的炮瓦已经展现了跟在小联盟生涯的明显差距，过 他在小联盟生涯已经展现了紮实的gap power(击出二垒 打三垒打所需的power) : 去两季最少都有25支二垒安打。 : Gomez is a bigger question mark, but he might be the one with more potential : at the plate. While he has never had a sterling offensive season, he held his : own in the minors at a very young age; he just hasn't seen much in the way of : improvement in the last two years. : Gomez是让人比较存疑，但他还是有潜力。过去从来没有在大联盟有个完整球 虽然他过去在进攻上没什麽惊人的 : 季过，因为他的早期生涯都是在小联盟浮浮沉沉，只是过去两年他看来没什麽 表现，但是他年纪轻轻就进了小联盟，还能够维 持一定的水准(意思就是他在小联盟时面对的都 是年纪比他大比他有经验的对手，但还是有不错 的表现，代表他有一定的潜力在) : 长进就是。 : Will Rickie Weeks stay healthy? : Rickie Weeks可以保持健康吗? : Probably not. : 大概不会 : Has Doug Melvin fixed the bullpen yet? : Doug Melvin已经把牛棚补好了吗? : Little-known fact outside of Milwaukee: The bullpen wasn't that bad last : year. The memory of the 2008 Eric Gagne edition is strong, but finally fading. : 有点可能很多人不知道，事实上去年的牛棚并不是很差。08年Gagne留下 : 的印象很深，但它终於淡去了。 : Melvin has finally started to figure out how to build a bullpen with a decent : payroll. Years ago, he was famous for his scrap heap pickups: Dan Kolb (when : he was good), Derrick Turnbow (when he was good), Brian Shouse, and many : more. Once he had some money to play with, he spent it on the likes of Gagne, : Guillermo Mota, and David Riske. : Melvin终於开始尝试去花大钱重组牛棚。过去几年，他以他的资源回收 终於开始了解要怎麽样花钱建构 牛棚(过去都是用自家产的免钱 的) : 步数闻名：Dan Kolb、Derrick Turnbow、Brian Shouse还有其他一堆。 : 只要他手头上有钱可以烧，他就花在像Gagne、Mota、Riske这种投资上。 : Nobody ever said it was easy to build an effective bullpen. This year's : edition is a relatively salary-efficient blend of proven vets (Trevor : Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins), experienced but affordable middle relievers (Todd : Coffey, Claudio Vargas), and some homegrown pieces (Mitch Stetter, Carlos : Villanueva). : 没人说组一个有能力的牛棚很简单。今年的组成看来跟薪水相比很有价值： : 已证明身价的Hoffman、Hawkins；有经验但还可负担的中继Coffey、Vargas : ；还有几个自家采收的Stetter、Villanueva。 : A better performance from the starting rotation will help, and Hawkins should : more than make up for the loss of Mark DiFelice. Hawkins' presence also would : make it easier to weather injury or ineffectiveness from the 42-year-old : Hoffman. This isn't a world-beating bullpen, but it isn't likely to hold the : rest of the team back. : 先发轮值的进步可以帮忙，加上Hawkins有着比弥补DiFelice的离去更多 : 的价值。Hawkins的存在可以分担Hoffman的年迈和衰退问题。这不是个 这不是个 : 有宰制能力的牛棚，但是至少可以阻止其他队。 强力的牛棚，但也不太可能会拖累这支球队。 : Where will Prince Fielder end up, and when? : 小王子会何去何从，在何时？ : Those annoyed by the constant low-level chatter about a long-term deal for : Prince Fielder had better brace themselves. It ain't going away anytime soon. : 那些一直喋喋不休要给小王子一份长约的人最好可以闭嘴了，这短期内 一直有关於小王子长约的消息，那些对这些消息感到困扰的人最好想办 : 不会发生。 法自行解决，因为短期内会一直有这样的消息。 : A quick recap. Prince is now in his second season of arbitration. Last year, : he signed a two-year deal that gave the club some cost certainty; this year, : he's making $10.5 million. If Scott Boras and the Brewers settle on a : one-year contract next year, we could be looking at something in Ryan Howard : territory, pushing $20 million. : 一个简单的概括。小王子现在身处仲裁的第二年。去年他签了一两年约 : ，这让球队的支出有了点肯定性(是说方便计划啦)；今年、他的薪水是 : 10.5M。如果酒人跟Boras今年再签下一纸合约，我们可以期待看到差不 : 多是Ryan Howard等级，逼近20M。 : It's conceivable that Milwaukee would do that. Between the low-cost Ryan : Braun deal and Suppan's contract coming off the books, the money will be : available. It's even possible that the Brewers could convince themselves that : Fielder is worth a $150 million, seven-year megadeal. : 一般相信Milwaukee会签下去。有着俗又大碗的Braun加上摆脱Suppan， : 资金是会够的。酒人甚至可以说服他们自己签下一份7y/150M的超值餐。 酒人甚至可能会说服他们自己：给小王子7年150M的大约 是值得的 : But this seems unlikely. First of all, Boras will want Fielder to test the : rose-tinted waters of free agency. That probably rules out a long-term deal : next winter. Second, while Fielder has shown some improvement at first base : (-23 in 2006-07 to -7 in 2008-09, according to TotalZone), he's still a : designated hitter in the not-too-distant future. The Brewers don't need one : of those. : 但这看来不太可能发生。第一、Boras会要小王子去诱人的FA试试水温。 : 这大概会把长约的可能性排除掉。第二、虽然他在一垒的进步是有目共睹 : (根据TotalZone，从06-07年的-23降到08-09年的-7)，他在不远的将来还 : 是会变成个指定打击。酒人不需要这种角色。 : Here's what's going to happen. Unless the Brewers are in the hunt come July, : Fielder will be unofficially available almost continuously until Opening Day : next year. Doug Melvin will never publicly put him on the trading block, and : he'll never back himself into a situation where he "must" trade his star. : There won't be a Halladay-esque public bidding war, either. But he'll listen. : 事情大概会是这样。除非酒人七月就把他收了，要不然小王子到明年开季 : 前都一直会是可交易的。Melvin绝对不会公开把他放上交易名单，他不会 : 做出让自己看起来逼不得已要交易掉球星的举。所以不会有像Halladay那 : 样的出价大战，但他会看你拿什麽来换。 : The Milwaukee front office isn't stupid. The odds that Fielder is wearing a : Cerveceros uniform in 2012 are awfully low. Fielder can net a whole lot more : than draft picks, and especially if the 2011 squad is shaping up to be : another 80-win mediocrity, there's no reason to pay Fielder $20 million to be : there. He might be part of a playoff run in 2010 or 2011, but it remains to : be seen whether it's the Brewers he'll be leading into October. : Milwaukee的制服组不是白痴。小王子到2012还穿着酒鬼球衣的可能性非常 : 地低。他可以换到的东西比选秀权更有价值，尤其是如果11年又会是个80 : 胜的鸡排球季，更没有理由用20M把他留下来。他可能会在10年或11年的季 在2010年或2011年，他可能 : 後赛阵容内，但这都得看酒人能不能打到10月。 还是会在酒人争夺季後赛的阵容当中，但到了10月季後赛时，他带领的球队 会不会是酒人就很难说了。(意思就是如果酒人季後赛无望，他就有可能被 交易到其他有机会进季後赛的球队) : Bonus: Will Ryan Braun be designing T-shirts in October? : Braun可以在10月设计T-shirt吗? : This is one question on which all of us—Brewers fans, Brewers haters, and : Brewers neutrals—can agree. : 这是个我们全部─酒人迷、酒人敌、随便一个人都会同意的回答 : Please, please no. : 绝对不要 : (请看原文、有附图) --

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