Five questions: Milwaukee Brewers by Jeff Sackmann March 18, 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers5/ From 90 wins to 80 in one season. Sure, Milwaukee fans are used to seeing the hometown team lose, but the 2008 Wild Card changed the expectation game. Plenty of things went right for the Brewers last year, but the starting rotation was so, so wrong. 一季之差，从90胜到落到了80胜。当然、酒人迷们已经习惯了球队低迷的 战绩，但是08年的外卡改变了大家的期待。上一季对酒人来说、很多事情 都做对了，但是先发轮值却是大错特错。 1.Will the rotation be respectable? 今年的轮值圈会像样点吗? One thing is certain: It will be tough for the rotation to be worse than it was last year. Brewers starters had an ERA of 5.37 last year (last in the National League, 0.40 behind 15th-place Washington), and that's including a 3.73 ERA from Yovani Gallardo. We could look at some more advanced stats, but they all tell about the same story. 只有一件事可以肯定：那就是轮值要比去年还烂，是件不太可能的事。 酒人的先发们去年创下了ERA5.37的成绩(国联垫底，比倒数第二的国民还 高了0.4)，而且其中算进了Gallardo的3.73。我们可以查一下进阶数据， 但是结论并不会有什麽差别。 At least there are some new faces. Along with Gallardo, the top of the rotation will include free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. Between them, CHONE predicts that the Crew will get about 330 innings of sub-4.50 pitching. Compared to replacement level, Wolf was a bit pricey. Compared to the disaster that was 2009 Brewers starting pitching, Wolf is a savior. 至少现在补进了新面孔。随着Gallardo，轮值圈顶端有了FA左投Rndy Wolf 跟Doug Davis。CHONE预测这三人大概可以贡献330局、4.50左右的成绩。 以替换层面来看，Wolf还真有点贵。但跟去年酒人先发的灾难来比较，Wolf 是个救世主。 Also reassuring is that Dave Bush and Manny Parra have track records suggesting they are capable hurlers. Both rode a wave of poor performance and worse luck to ERAs above 6.00 last year; CHONE projects that both will come in under 5.00 in 2010. 同样让人放心的还有Dave Bush和Manny Parra，他们过去的纪录说明 他们也是有能力的投手。去年双双因为表现差劲和歹运缴出高於6.00 的ERA。CHONE预测他们今年都会降到5.00以下。 Then there's Jeff Suppan. In a logical world, the Brewers would cut him loose, suffer the emotional pain of a $12 million sunk cost, and give his innings to someone—anyone—else. In this world, he may well end up with a rotation spot. He will give up a lot of runs. 然後是Jeff Suppan。理论上来说，酒人应该要释出他、硬吃下12M薪水 和情绪上的伤痛，然後把他的登板机会给别人─随便一个都可以。但实 际上，他可能会好好待在轮值圈内，然後丢掉一堆自责分。 Even if Suppan sticks in the rotation for most of the season, this is a much-improved rotation. It doesn't look like a playoff-caliber one, but if Parra (still only 27) puts things together and rebounds to something like his 2008 season, it might be good enough to get the job done. 就算这季硬把Suppan留在轮值圈内，这轮值还是已经大大改善了。虽然 看起来不像是有季後赛能力，但如果Parra可以重拾他08年的状态，在 季後赛生存也是有可能的。 2.They can field, they can run, but can they hit? 他们可以守、可以跑、但是他们能打吗? If you're looking for reasons to watch the Brewers this year, here are two: Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Both are among the most gifted defensive players in the game, and they'll be manning shortstop and center field for Milwaukee. 如果你在找今年看酒人的理由，这里有两个：Alcides Escobar和Carlos Gomez。两个都是极有天赋的防守球员，将会是带来惊奇的游击手和中外 野手。 But both also are young and come with question marks on their offense. Gomez has over 1,000 major league at-bats under his belt, with a sub-.300 on-base percentage to show for it. Brewers coaches are already tinkering with his approach, and he's a candidate (along with Escobar) to bat ninth, behind the pitcher. 但是他们两个都还年轻、并且在进攻上让人存疑。Gomez已经在大联盟累积 了超过1000棒次的机会，留下了差不多.300的上垒率。酒人教练团已经因为 他在东补西补，并且有机会让他打第九棒、排在投手後面。 Officially, the Brewers aren't expecting much from the pair, but if both perform at the lower end of their offensive projections, it's easy to see an anemic overall offense result. For all that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can do, another down year from Corey Hart, a step back from Casey McGehee, and a couple of all-field youngsters could guarantee some awfully easy innings for opposing pitchers. 官方上、酒人并不对他们抱有有什麽太大的期待。但如果两个都缴出期望 值底端的成绩，贫血的整体进攻是很有可能的。Braun跟Fielder做他们能 做的、Hart又让人发闷的一年、McGehee的退步，再加上一两个年轻工具人 可以保证让对手投手很好过。 Fortunately, there is hope. Escobar got on base at a .350 clip in Triple-A last year, and even batted .300 in his stint in the majors. He's shown solid gap power throughout his minor league career, knocking at least 25 doubles in each of the last two seasons. 还好，还有个希望。Escobar去年在3A缴出了.350的上垒率，连在大联盟期间 打击都有.300的表现。他的炮瓦已经展现了跟在小联盟生涯的明显差距，过 去两季最少都有25支二垒安打。 Gomez is a bigger question mark, but he might be the one with more potential at the plate. While he has never had a sterling offensive season, he held his own in the minors at a very young age; he just hasn't seen much in the way of improvement in the last two years. Gomez是让人比较存疑，但他还是有潜力。过去从来没有在大联盟有个完整球 季过，因为他的早期生涯都是在小联盟浮浮沉沉，只是过去两年他看来没什麽 长进就是。 3.Will Rickie Weeks stay healthy? Rickie Weeks可以保持健康吗? Probably not. 大概不会 Has Doug Melvin fixed the bullpen yet? Doug Melvin已经把牛棚补好了吗? Little-known fact outside of Milwaukee: The bullpen wasn't that bad last year. The memory of the 2008 Eric Gagne edition is strong, but finally fading. 有点可能很多人不知道，事实上去年的牛棚并不是很差。08年Gagne留下 的印象很深，但它终於淡去了。 Melvin has finally started to figure out how to build a bullpen with a decent payroll. Years ago, he was famous for his scrap heap pickups: Dan Kolb (when he was good), Derrick Turnbow (when he was good), Brian Shouse, and many more. Once he had some money to play with, he spent it on the likes of Gagne, Guillermo Mota, and David Riske. Melvin终於开始尝试去花大钱重组牛棚。过去几年，他以他的资源回收 步数闻名：Dan Kolb、Derrick Turnbow、Brian Shouse还有其他一堆。 只要他手头上有钱可以烧，他就花在像Gagne、Mota、Riske这种投资上。 Nobody ever said it was easy to build an effective bullpen. This year's edition is a relatively salary-efficient blend of proven vets (Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins), experienced but affordable middle relievers (Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas), and some homegrown pieces (Mitch Stetter, Carlos Villanueva). 没人说组一个有能力的牛棚很简单。今年的组成看来跟薪水相比很有价值： 已证明身价的Hoffman、Hawkins；有经验但还可负担的中继Coffey、Vargas ；还有几个自家采收的Stetter、Villanueva。 A better performance from the starting rotation will help, and Hawkins should more than make up for the loss of Mark DiFelice. Hawkins' presence also would make it easier to weather injury or ineffectiveness from the 42-year-old Hoffman. This isn't a world-beating bullpen, but it isn't likely to hold the rest of the team back. 先发轮值的进步可以帮忙，加上Hawkins有着比弥补DiFelice的离去更多 的价值。Hawkins的存在可以分担Hoffman的年迈和衰退问题。这不是个 有宰制能力的牛棚，但是至少可以阻止其他队。 4.Where will Prince Fielder end up, and when? 小王子会何去何从，在何时？ Those annoyed by the constant low-level chatter about a long-term deal for Prince Fielder had better brace themselves. It ain't going away anytime soon. 那些一直喋喋不休要给小王子一份长约的人最好可以闭嘴了，这短期内 不会发生。 A quick recap. Prince is now in his second season of arbitration. Last year, he signed a two-year deal that gave the club some cost certainty; this year, he's making $10.5 million. If Scott Boras and the Brewers settle on a one-year contract next year, we could be looking at something in Ryan Howard territory, pushing $20 million. 一个简单的概括。小王子现在身处仲裁的第二年。去年他签了一两年约 ，这让球队的支出有了点肯定性(是说方便计划啦)；今年、他的薪水是 10.5M。如果酒人跟Boras今年再签下一纸合约，我们可以期待看到差不 多是Ryan Howard等级，逼近20M。 It's conceivable that Milwaukee would do that. Between the low-cost Ryan Braun deal and Suppan's contract coming off the books, the money will be available. It's even possible that the Brewers could convince themselves that Fielder is worth a $150 million, seven-year megadeal. 一般相信Milwaukee会签下去。有着俗又大碗的Braun加上摆脱Suppan， 资金是会够的。酒人甚至可以说服他们自己签下一份7y/150M的超值餐。 But this seems unlikely. First of all, Boras will want Fielder to test the rose-tinted waters of free agency. That probably rules out a long-term deal next winter. Second, while Fielder has shown some improvement at first base (-23 in 2006-07 to -7 in 2008-09, according to TotalZone), he's still a designated hitter in the not-too-distant future. The Brewers don't need one of those. 但这看来不太可能发生。第一、Boras会要小王子去诱人的FA试试水温。 这大概会把长约的可能性排除掉。第二、虽然他在一垒的进步是有目共睹 (根据TotalZone，从06-07年的-23降到08-09年的-7)，他在不远的将来还 是会变成个指定打击。酒人不需要这种角色。 Here's what's going to happen. Unless the Brewers are in the hunt come July, Fielder will be unofficially available almost continuously until Opening Day next year. Doug Melvin will never publicly put him on the trading block, and he'll never back himself into a situation where he "must" trade his star. There won't be a Halladay-esque public bidding war, either. But he'll listen. 事情大概会是这样。除非酒人七月就把他收了，要不然小王子到明年开季 前都一直会是可交易的。Melvin绝对不会公开把他放上交易名单，他不会 做出让自己看起来逼不得已要交易掉球星的举动。所以不会有像Halladay 那样的出价大战，但他会看你拿什麽来换。 The Milwaukee front office isn't stupid. The odds that Fielder is wearing a Cerveceros uniform in 2012 are awfully low. Fielder can net a whole lot more than draft picks, and especially if the 2011 squad is shaping up to be another 80-win mediocrity, there's no reason to pay Fielder $20 million to be there. He might be part of a playoff run in 2010 or 2011, but it remains to be seen whether it's the Brewers he'll be leading into October. Milwaukee的制服组不是白痴。小王子到2012还穿着酒鬼球衣的可能性非常 地低。他可以换到的东西比选秀权更有价值，尤其是如果11年又会是个80 胜的鸡排球季，更没有理由用20M把他留下来。他可能会在10年或11年的季 後赛阵容内，但这都得看酒人能不能打进10月。 Bonus: Will Ryan Braun be designing T-shirts in October? Braun会在10月设计T-shirt吗? This is one question on which all of us—Brewers fans, Brewers haters, and Brewers neutrals—can agree. 这是个我们全部─酒人迷、酒人敌、随便一个人都会同意的回答 Please, please no. 绝对不要 (请看原文、有附图) --

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