Projecting a new decade of MLB stars We look ahead at who will be shining brightest in the big leagues through 2019 By Kevin Goldstein Baseball Prospectus December 14, 2009, 2:10 PM ET This week on ESPN.com, writers and editors will be looking back at the past decade in baseball -- and looking ahead to the future. Today, to begin the conversation, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus -- a man well versed in prospects and MLB futures -- looks at the 20 players who will shine the brightest from 2010 through 2019. Selections were based on Baseball Prospectus statistical projections such as WARP (wins above replacement player), along with more subjective observations such as scouting reports and general sense of upside. Our focus here is ultimately on decade-long value to a team. 1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins 2010 Birthday: 27 on Dec. 23 In the past three seasons, Ramirez has been worth just less than 25 wins, and he hasn't even entered his prime yet. Sure, he's not a very good shortstop in the field, but when you are talking about a .925-.950 OPS every season, who cares? 2. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks 2010 Birthday: 23 on Aug. 25 Upton showed up on an MVP ballot in 2009, and on a better team, his name would have been written on more. Even scarier is that his .300/.366/.532 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) season just scratched the surface. It was Upton's third pro season, yes, but he still was the sixth-youngest player in the game. Offensively, he remains on a Ken Griffey Jr.-esque career path. 3. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins 2010 Birthday: 27 on April 19 The power scouts had been projecting for nearly a decade finally showed in 2009, as Mauer had one of the best seasons in the history of catchers. And he might be just entering his prime. The only question at this point is: How many more years can he catch? The smart money has him becoming a first baseman somewhere around the middle of the decade. 4. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants 2010 Birthday: 26 on June 15 The winner of back-to-back Cy Young Awards, Lincecum's 2009 was even better than his 2008, with both his hit and walk rates decreasing appreciably. Beyond being the best pitcher in baseball, he also is arguably the one whose health can be counted on the most, as he seems like that one-in-a-decade guy to whom innings and pitch counts just don't matter. By the end of the decade, he'll be pushing 3,000 career strikeouts -- or more likely, he'll already be there. 5. Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City Royals 2010 Birthday: 27 on Oct. 21 The 2009 season was magical for Greinke, but Lincecum's slight age advantage and longer track record of greatness give him the edge. With his nonperformance problems seemingly behind him, all systems are go for Greinke, whom Royals fans will be able to enjoy for at least three more years. 6. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays 2010 Birthday: 25 on Oct. 7 The best third baseman in the game at just 24, Longoria has developed into a Gold Glove defender at the hot corner. While his 2009 season looks to be a statistical doppelganger of his rookie year, there are indications of growth -- primarily more walks and fewer strikeouts, both of which bode well. Surprise stat: Longoria is 16-for-16 in stealing bases thus far in his career. 7. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers 2010 Birthday: 27 on Nov. 17 Braun already has amassed 974 total bases in his first three pro seasons; this is even more incredible because in 2007 he played only 113 games at the big league level. His athleticism should make him effective for the entire decade -- he's the kind of hitter who can annually put up 200 hits, 80 of them going for extra bases, into his early 30s. 8. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals 2010 Birthday: 22 on July 20 He's never pitched an inning in the majors -- but he has a chance to win at least the two Cy Young Awards that Lincecum won in the previous decade for himself. On a scouting level, Strasburg is Lincecum with half a foot more height, a better changeup and command that's a full two grades higher than the Giants star's. 9. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners 2010 Birthday: 24 on April 8 Hernandez delivered his first truly great season in 2009, and with such an early start to his big league career, he'll be a 25-year-old free agent after the 2011 season -- and in line for the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, maybe by a wide margin. Younger and arguably more established than everyone above him, the only reason he ranks a touch lower is the fear of breakdown, as he's had some minor bumps in the road here and there. Scouts always have loved his stuff but worry some about his mechanics. 10. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals 2010 Birthday: 30 on Jan. 16 Even conservatively, Pujols is going to be pushing 3,500 hits and 700 home runs in 10 years. He shows no signs of slowing down, and by the middle of the decade, we should get some indication of whether his listed age is as accurate as he maintains it is. 11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers 2010 Birthday: 26 on May 9 The youngest player to hit 50 home runs in a season, Fielder threatened to do it a second time in 2009; chances are excellent that it will happen at least once more in the upcoming decade. Any purely offensive measurement pegs him as a better hitter than Braun, but with that body, there is a chance of a Mo Vaughn-like precipitous decline in his early 30s. 12. Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox 2010 Birthday: 26 on Jan. 7 This is a bit surprising at first, but he's been among the American League's top 10 pitchers for each of the past two seasons. With a more gaudy win-loss record, he would get more attention. He still hasn't peaked and could have a Cy Young in his future. 13. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves 2010 Birthday: 21 on Aug. 9 The top position player prospect in the game, Heyward has a chance at opening 2010 in the big leagues, and even if that doesn't work out, he'll be in Atlanta well before he can legally drink to celebrate his accomplishment. A potential "face of the franchise"-level talent, Heyward hits for average, hits for power, draws walks and even runs a bit. He could be Dale Murphy, V2. 14. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles 2010 Birthday: 25 on Aug. 25 It seemed as if 2009 was going to be Jones' bust-out campaign, but second-half injuries meant Orioles fans will have to wait until this upcoming season. After spending most of his minor league career as a shortstop, Jones quickly has developed into one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and like Longoria, more walks and fewer strikeouts in 2009 portend even more offense to come. 15. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics 2010 Birthday: 22 on Feb. 1 Eight high school pitchers were selected ahead of Anderson in the 2006 draft, of which seven pitched at Double-A or below in 2009. Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman reached the majors this past season, but Anderson was among the AL's top pitchers during the second half of the year: a 3.48 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He's just getting started. 16. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates 2010 Birthday: 24 on Oct. 10 Not only were the Pirates awful during the past decade, but they were incredibly boring. McCutchen can change at least the latter with his power/speed game, and while his ceiling falls short of MVP level, he could hit 20 bombs and swipe 30 bases annually well into the latter part of the '10s. 17. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves 2010 Birthday: 24 on Aug. 28 Had the Braves opened the 2009 season with Hanson in the rotation (which would have been the right decision), we'd be talking about your reigning National League rookie of the year. Instead, we're talking about one of the circuit's best young arms. The only thing keeping him from ranking higher is that some scouts and execs feel his ceiling is "a consistent 15-18 game winner" as opposed to "a true ace." 18. Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers 2010 Birthday: 22 on Dec. 27 Porcello kept his straight fastball in his back pocket during much of 2009 as he learned on the job how to set up hitters and use his defense. The Porcello everyone saw during the 163rd game of the season -- in which he whiffed eight Twins over five innings pitched -- was the real deal. He's among the best choices around for a 2010 breakout. 19. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers 2010 Birthday: 26 on Sept. 23 Playing in a more friendly park, Kemp's numbers would make him a no-brainer -- but even with the limits of Chavez Ravine, he might the best candidate for multiple 30/30 (home runs/stolen bases) seasons in the next decade. His tools and athleticism should lead to a graceful aging process, and if he ends up in a better offensive environment, he could put up monster stats. 20. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets 2010 Birthday: 28 on Dec. 20 How great is it to hit .307/.390/.447 and have everyone talk about how bad your year was? That's what happens when a team, as a whole, fails to live up to expectations. As big a nightmare as 2009 was, Wright remains one of the game's best young talents and one who is just hitting his prime. Just missed (in alphabetical order): Pedro Alvarez, Pirates; Elvis Andrus, Rangers; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Robinson Cano, Yankees; Alcides Escobar, Brewes; Neftali Feliz, Rangers; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada; Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Mat Latos, Padres; Jesus Montero, Yankees; David Price, Rays; Anthony Ranaudo, Louisiana State; Carlos Santana, Indians; Grady Sizemore, Indians; Mike Stanton, Marlins; Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; Justin Verlander, Tigers; Matt Wieters, Orioles; Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals. Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 173.89.0.104