Hughes, Bailey, and Gallardo by Chris Constancio http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hughes-bailey-and-gallardo/ 再过十年，我们回过来看2006年球季可能会发觉这是新世代优秀年轻投手开始 他们大联盟生涯的一个球季。今天，我想要进一步观察现在仍在小联盟的三名 年轻投手。这三名投手都是在2004年选秀会被选并且在今年球季於2A表现出色 。这三名投手中任何一人都可能最快在明年就对大联盟母队有所帮助。 Yovani Gallardo Gallardo 出生於墨西哥，不过他在德州长大并且在高中毕业後於2004年选秀会 第二轮被选走。今年球季他投出领先全小联盟的188次三振。 强项：酿酒人总经理 Doug Melvin 用"非常棒"来描述它。Huntsville 投手教 练 Rich Sauveur 称它"荒谬"。酿酒人三垒新秀 Ryan Braun 则说它是"不可思 议的"。他们所谈论的都是 Gallardo 在投手丘上的镇定。这名20岁年轻爸爸 的成熟度以及他在投球丘上的风采让许多人印象深刻。 风险：Gallardo 对於四个球种都有不错的控球能力，不过他没有像 Homer Bailey 或 Philip Hughes 那样压倒性的球威可以依靠。取而代之的是，他必 须控制自己90mph速球的进垒点并且使用变速球跟变化球来破坏打者的平衡。 他在过去很少受伤，不过值得注意的是在过去两年他的投球局数比另外两人多 。 预测： Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 170 169 75 3.66 2008 NL 179 154 82 3.36 Philip Hughes Hughes started the season in the Florida State League, but he earned a promotion in May and went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 21 Eastern League starts. Strengths: Hughes’ stuff is above-average, but his impeccable control really sets him apart from other top pitching prospects. Hughes commands his fastball and secondary pitches well within the strike zone, and he only walked 34 batters in 146 innings pitched during 2006. Risks: Hughes has been bothered by elbow and shoulder tendonitis in the past, but the Yankees coddled him with strict pitch and innings limits in 2006. The way his body responds to increased workloads in the coming years will be the most important factor in determining whether or not Hughes fulfills his potential as a front-of-rotation starting pitcher for the Yankees. Projection: Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 159 150 46 2.86 2008 AL 168 128 53 3.34 Homer Bailey Bailey, the seventh overall pick from the 2004 draft, went 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA after a June promotion to the Double-A Southern League. There was speculation that Bailey would join the Reds during their run at a playoff spot in September, and he may have a chance to earn a spot in the Cincinnati rotation next spring. Strengths: Homer Bailey’s upside is as high as any pitcher in the minor leagues right now. His curveball has a hard break and his lively fastball can reach 97 mph. Risks: I worry about Bailey’s occasional control problems. Bailey walked more than five batters per nine innings in 2005, but the Reds suggested the high walk rate was due to their insistence that he work with secondary pitches. His control was improved in 2006, but he walked 20 batters in his final 31 innings of this year’s regular season. In his only playoff start, Bailey walked three batters and tossed two wild pitches in a 2-0 loss versus Huntsville. Projection: Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 152 149 76 3.72 2008 NL 161 135 92 4.15 这三名20岁的投手今年的成绩非常接近，不过他们的未来看起来有一点不同。在2010年 以前 Gallardo 是这三人中入选明星队机会最小的球员，不过他有一个美好职业生涯的 机率跟另两人一样高。 Bailey 的球路品质比 Hughes 或 Gallardo 好一点，所以红人 所面对的报酬上限及风险都比洋基或酿酒人高。Bailey 也是这三人中最可能在明年四月 抢下大联盟先发投手位置的球员。一些洋基球迷想要看到 Hughes 明年在大联盟先发， 不过洋基有投手深度及资源让他们可以耐心地对待这名他们十几年来最让人兴奋的投手 新秀。假设他们都能保持健康，我认为 Hughes 是这三人中最可能於25岁前在大联盟交 出平均水准以上成绩的球员。 --

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