※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之铭言： : http://tinyurl.com/6ewl9e : by John Sickels on Apr 7, 2008 1:33 PM EDT Shaun Marcum was drafted by Blue Jays in 2003,a third round pick out of Southwest Missouri State University. He was a shortstop/closer in college, a testimony to his athleticism. Not a huge guy at 6-0, 180, he had an 88-91 fastball and a good slider. The Jays used him in relief initially and he posted a 1.32 ERA with a 47/7 K/BB in 34 innings in the New York-Penn League. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, noting that his grade would go higher if he continued to perform well at higher levels. Marcum 是蓝鸟 '03 年选秀第三轮选进来的球员。他大学时可守游击也可当投手，足证他有 运动细胞。他身材不高大，那时候有着 88-91 MPH 的速球和一颗好滑球。蓝鸟一开始将他 定位成中继投手，而他也缴出 47/7 K/BB 比例的优异成绩。我在 2004 年给他 C+，并说如 果他在较高阶的联盟继续表现不错的话，评比会升高。 The Jays converted Marcum to the rotation in 2004. He went 7-3, 3.19 with an 83/16 K/BB in 79 innings in the Sally League, then 3-2, 3.12 with a 72/4 K/BB in 69 innings in the Florida State League. I moved his grade up to B-, noting that some scouts were concerned that his command might actually be "too good" and that he'd prove excessively hittable at higher levels. He was still at 88-92 but was showing a better changeup and curveball to go with the slider. 2004 年蓝鸟将 Marcum 拉去先发。在 Sally 联盟的 79 局投球，他缴出 3.19 ERA，83/16 K/BB 的优异成绩。接着在 FSL 先发 69 局，投出 72/4 K/BB 的好成绩。隔年我给他 B-， 说道有些球探担心他的控球好过头了只至於可能在更高阶的联盟遭痛击。那时他速球仍然在 88-92 间跑，但是他的变速球和曲球的威力变好了，且可拿来和滑球混搭。 Marcum began 2005 in Double-A, going 7-1, 2.53 with a 40/10 K/BB in 53 innings. Promoted to Triple-A, he struggled with a 4.95 ERA. HIs K/BB was good at 90/18, but he gave up 112 hits and 17 homers in 104 innings for Syracuse. He pitched eight scoreless innings out of the major league bullpen. I gave him a Grade C+, writing that relief might be his best role. As a starter, I saw him as a possible strike-throwing inning-eater, but didn't expect him to dominate. 2005 年他在 AA 出赛，7-1，2.53 ERA，40/10 K/BB in 53 局。但被拉到 AAA 後，ERA 暴 升到 4.95。他的 K/BB 仍然是相当优异的 90/18，但是却在 104 局的投球中被尻了 112 支安打，包括 17 支全垒打。该年他也在大联盟留下 8 局无失分的成绩。那年我给他 C+， 并写道他最好拿来中继。如果拿来先发，我那时候认为他可能是三振型的工作马，但不看好 他能有宰制力。 Marcum saw 78 innings of swingman use for Toronto in 2006, then made 25 starts and 13 relief appearances last year. In 245 major league innings, he has a 191/91 K/BB, 242 hits allowed, and a 4.29 ERA. He was quite effective last year . What should we expect for the future? 2006 年他先发中继两头跑，投了 78 局，25 场先发、13 场後援。在大联盟 245 局的投球 中缴出 ERA 4.29、191/91 K/BB、被敲 242 安。去年他投得相当不错。对於他的未来，我 们该做什麽期待呢？ PECOTA's comps are interesting: Jose Acevedo, Frank Castillo, Eric Gagne, Adam Eaton, Art Mahaffey, Doug Drabek, Mike Gardiner, Gil Meche, Jim McAndrew, and Barry Lersch are the top ten. Gagne doesn't make much sense; Marcum doesn't have that kind of stuff. A Drabek-esque ceiling I can see, if Marcum remains healthy and can improve his command a bit more. That would be his ceiling. PECOTA 把他拿来跟以下诸位做类比： Jose Acevedo, Frank Castillo, Eric Gagne, Adam Eaton, Art Mahaffey, Doug Drabek, Mike Gardiner, Gil Meche, Jim McAndrew, and Barry Lersch。Gagne 那个不算数～因为 Marcum 没他那种stuff。就我看来，如果他保持 健康且控球能够再进步一点的话，他最好的情况是会有 Doug Drabek 那样的表现。 One thing that stands out for Marcum is his athleticism as a former college shortstop. Athleticism is something that's often underrated when discussing pitchers, but it's a critical factor in development. Marcum may be "undersized" classically as a shorter right-hander, but his athletic ability makes that a lot less important, in my view, and should help him stay healthy and reach his ultimate peak. At this point, I'm pretty optimistic about him. He doesn't have the pure physical upside of Dustin McGowan, but he's got a decent chance to be a much better pitcher than a lot of guys drafted ahead of him in '03. Marcum 的特色是他以前守过游击。在讨论投手时，运动细胞好不好的问题常被忽视。但在 球员球技的发展来看却是相当重要的因素。Marcum 在身高上或许较矮了点，但他的运动细 胞让身高的因素变得较不重要。我对他将来的发展相当乐观。他上半身的强度或许不若 M&M 兄弟的另一位，但他相较於'03 选秀中在他前面顺位被挑走的投手来说，有更大的机会 成为更好的投手。 Drabek's best year was 1990 at age 27, when he won 22 games with a +131 ERA+. Marcum's corresponding season would be 2009. Could Marcum make a run at such a season next year? Keep that in the back of your mind. Drabek 生涯年是 1990 年，那年他 27 岁，赢得 22 场胜投，+131 ERA+。照这样推算的话 Marcum 在 2009 年会达颠峰。明年他有无机会表现 CY 般的成绩呢？ 请铭记在心。 注：1. 总觉得这标题在之前就看过？！是在官网吗？ 2. 下面是取自 baseball-reference 网站的 Doug Drabek 成绩 Doug Drabek (Douglas Dean Drabek) Bats Right, Throws Right Height 6' 1", Weight 185 lb. School University of Houston Debut May 30, 1986 vs. OAK 4.3 IP, 1 H, 4 SO, 3 BB, 1 ER Final Game September 25, 1998 Born July 25, 1962 in Victoria, TX Drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 11th round of the 1983 amateur draft. Player signed June 11, 1983. Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BK +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 1986 23 NYY AL 7 8 27 21 0 0 2 0 131.7 126 64 60 13 0 1987 24 PIT NL 11 12 29 28 1 1 0 0 176.3 165 86 76 22 1 1988 25 PIT NL 15 7 33 32 3 1 0 0 219.3 194 83 75 21 1 1989 26 PIT NL 14 12 35 34 8 5 1 0 244.3 215 83 76 21 0 1990 27 PIT NL 22 6 33 33 9 3 0 0 231.3 190 78 71 15 0 1991 28 PIT NL 15 14 35 35 5 2 0 0 234.7 245 92 80 16 0 1992 29 PIT NL 15 11 34 34 10 4 0 0 256.7 218 84 79 17 1 1993 30 HOU NL 9 18 34 34 7 2 0 0 237.7 242 108 100 18 0 1994 31 HOU NL 12 6 23 23 6 2 0 0 164.7 132 58 52 14 0 1995 32 HOU NL 10 9 31 31 2 1 0 0 185.0 205 104 98 18 1 1996 33 HOU NL 7 9 30 30 1 0 0 0 175.3 208 102 89 21 0 1997 34 CHW AL 12 11 31 31 0 0 0 0 169.3 170 109 108 30 2 1998 35 BAL AL 6 11 23 21 1 0 1 0 108.7 138 90 88 20 0 +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 13 Yr WL% .536 155 134 398 387 53 21 4 0 2535.0 2448 1141 1052 246 6 +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 162 Game Avg 13 11 34 33 4 1 0 0 219.3 212 98 91 21 0 Career High 22 18 35 35 10 5 2 0 256.7 245 109 108 30 2 Year Ag Tm Lg BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 1986 23 NYY AL 50 76 3 2 561 1 4.10 4.10 100 1.337 1987 24 PIT NL 46 120 0 5 721 2 3.88 4.09 105 1.197 1988 25 PIT NL 50 127 6 4 880 4 3.08 3.39 110 1.112 1989 26 PIT NL 69 123 3 3 994 3 2.80 3.36 120 1.162 1990 27 PIT NL 56 131 3 6 918 2 2.76 3.61 131 1.063 MVP-8,CYA-1 1991 28 PIT NL 62 142 3 5 977 6 3.07 3.61 118 1.308 1992 29 PIT NL 54 177 6 11 1021 8 2.77 3.44 124 1.060 CYA-5 1993 30 HOU NL 60 157 3 12 991 12 3.79 3.88 103 1.271 1994 31 HOU NL 45 121 2 2 657 2 2.84 3.97 140 1.075 CYA-4,AS 1995 32 HOU NL 54 143 8 8 797 4 4.77 3.89 82 1.400 1996 33 HOU NL 60 137 7 9 786 5 4.57 3.89 85 1.529 1997 34 CHW AL 69 85 4 12 731 5 5.74 4.39 76 1.411 1998 35 BAL AL 29 55 5 1 484 2 7.29 4.52 62 1.537 +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 13 Yr WL% .536 704 1594 53 80 10518 56 3.73 3.79 101 1.243 +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 162 Game Avg 60 138 4 6 911 4 3.73 3.79 101 1.243 Career High 69 177 8 12 1021 12 2.76 4.52 140 1.060 -- 你给我一种感觉 奇特的感觉 一时之间我遗失了语言 除非是『三月不揭的春帷』才让我留下足以酿酒的眼泪 你笑的一厢情愿 绝版的明信片 恍惚置我於诸神的纪元 谁不在等待他的贝德丽采 清秀的佳人在日落尽处重现 如果你柔情的双眼悬挂在天边 我愿是容纳你笔直光线的深邃 即使在世纪末以前极短的时间 我也要散尽所有力气雄雄为你搏一回 --

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