Skenes analyzes 'weird' first half, addresses questions over velocity drop Skenes 分析自己「有些奇怪」的上半季，回应外界对球速下滑的质疑。 July 15th, 2026 Jason Mackey https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-analyzes-his-first-half-addresses-questions-over-velocity-drop https://shorturl.at/qActg PHILADELPHIA -- While the outside world spent plenty of time over the past few months pondering what’s wrong with Paul Skenes -- the dip in velocity, nine games without a win -- the Pirates ace has remained methodical. 费城讯──过去几个月，外界花了不少时间讨论 Paul Skenes 到底出了什麽问题，从球速 下降到连续九场先发未能拿下胜投，各种质疑不断。然而，这位海盗队王牌始终维持一贯 按部就班的步调，不受外界声音影响。 Skenes hasn’t wavered. He trusts his process and believes the under-the-hood numbers his starts have produced will normalize in the second half. Skenes 并没有因此动摇。他相信自己的训练与调整流程，也认为那些先发登板中展现出的 各项进阶数据，将会在下半季逐渐回归正常，反映出他真正的投球内容。 The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner also isn’t a dummy. There are things he can improve, sure. But that conversation for Skenes doesn ’t involve his fastball velocity, which has certainly been a hot-button topic. 这位现任国联塞扬奖得主当然也不是看不清问题的人。他知道自己仍有可以改进之处，但 在他看来，需要检讨的地方并不包括速球球速──尽管这一直是外界最热烈讨论的焦点。 “I think it’s funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing,” Skenes said while reflecting on his first half at the MLB All-Star Game. “In those outings, I don’t think I really got damaged on my four-seamer.” 「我觉得很有意思，记者只有在我投得不好时，才会问球速的问题。」Skenes 在明星赛期 间回顾自己的上半季时表示。 「但就算是那些内容不理想的比赛，我也不认为自己真正是被四缝线速球打垮的。」 It’s an interesting question and one that deserves a deeper dive. Despite the velocity dip, the performance of his four-seamer has actually been solid, arguably the best of his career. 这确实是一个值得深入探讨的问题。尽管球速有所下降，但 Skenes 的四缝线速球实际表 现依然相当稳定，甚至可以说是职业生涯至今最出色的一年。 Among the numbers to consider: ‧ Opponents are hitting .195 against Skenes’ four-seamer compared to .205 last year and .230 as a rookie. ‧ They’re slugging .352 against it versus .347 last year and .351 during his first season. ‧ When it comes to Baseball Savant’s run value, Skenes’ four-seamer in 2026 (11) is on a similar pace to last season (20) and far ahead of 2024 (7). Yes, his average velocity has dropped from 98.8 mph as a rookie to 98.2 in 2025 and 96.6 this season. But how much does that really matter? In Skenes’ mind, not much. 以下几项数据值得参考： 打者面对 Skenes 四缝线速球的打击率仅 .195 ，优於去年的 .205 ，也比新人球季的 .230 更低。 对手面对四缝线速球的长打率为 .352 ，与去年的 .347 及新人年的 .351 几乎维持在 相同水准。 以 Baseball Savant 的 Run Value 指标来看，Skenes 本季四缝线速球的数值为 ( 11) ，依目前进度与去年的 (20) 相近，且明显优於 2024 年的 (7) 。 Yes, his average velocity has dropped from 98.8 mph as a rookie to 98.2 in 2025 and 96.6 this season. But how much does that really matter? In Skenes’ mind, not much. 没错，他的四缝线速球平均球速，已从新人年的 98.8 英里，降至 2025 年的 98.2 英里 ，本季更下降到 96.6 英里。但这究竟有多大的影响？在 Skenes 看来，答案是：影响并 不大。 “I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes said. “ I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level.” Skenes 表示：「我不认为一定要靠球速才能投得好。」 「这大概是我职业生涯第一次出现球速下滑的情况，但我完全不会因此感到压力。我身体 很健康，状况也很好，而且依然维持在很高的投球水准。」 Skenes called his first half “weird” and “interesting.” The numbers certainly support that, too. Skenes 形容自己的上半季是「很奇怪（weird）」、「很有意思（interesting）」 的一段历程，而各项数据确实也支持他的这种感受。 Over his first two seasons, Skenes’ actual ERA was actually 0.61 better than his expected mark. This year -- for a variety of reasons that include both things Skenes can control and poor defense behind him -- his actual ERA (3.57) is 0.86 higher than his expected (2.71). 生涯前两个球季，Skenes 的实际防御率（ERA）比预期防御率（xERA）还要低 0.61，代表 实际成绩甚至优於预期。 但本季情况正好相反。受到多种因素影响，包括他自己可以控制的部分，以及队友守备表 现不佳等原因，他目前的实际防御率为 3.57，比预期防御率 2.71 高出了 0.86。 At the same time, there are a bunch of numbers with Skenes that fit well within his career norms. 不过，与此同时，Skenes 的许多核心数据其实仍与生涯平均水准相当接近。 Another sampling: ‧ His expected batting average against is .203 compared to a career mark of .199. ‧ His expected slugging percentage against is .320 compared to a career mark of .315. ‧ His strikeout rate is 29.5% compared to a career mark of 30.6%. ‧ His walk rate (5.5%) is actually a career low. 以下几项数据就是例子： 对手的预期打击率（xBA）为 .203，与生涯平均 .199 几乎没有差异。 对手的预期长打率（xSLG）为 .320，与生涯平均 .315 相当接近。 三振率为 29.5%，与生涯平均 30.6% 相差不大。 保送率仅 5.5%，反而是职业生涯最佳（最低）纪录。 “It was a really interesting first half, because I don’t think I’ve thrown the ball poorly,” Skenes said. “But obviously some numbers look different. The strikeout rate is in a very good spot. The walk rate is in a good spot. Not giving up hard contact consistently. For whatever reason, the ERA is a little higher. Not something I’m losing any sleep over. It’s just been kind of a weird first half in that sense.” Skenes 表示：「这真的是一个很有意思的上半季，因为我并不认为自己投得不好。」 「但很明显，有些数据看起来确实不同。我的三振率依然很好，保送率也很理想，而且也 没有持续被击出强劲击球。不知道为什麽，防御率就是比较高一些。不过这并不是会让我 睡不着觉的事情。从这个角度来看，这确实是一个有点奇怪的上半季。」 Quality of contact is another area worth considering with Skenes. His hard-hit percentage of 37.4% represents a career low. The average exit velocity he’s allowed fits his career norms, too: 87.8 mph in 2024, 87.6 and 87.9 the past two. 打者击球品质也是评估 Skenes 表现的重要指标。他本季的强劲击球率（Hard-Hit Rate ）为 37.4%，创下职业生涯新低。 至於被击出的平均击球初速（Exit Velocity）也与生涯水准一致：2024 年为 87.8 英里 ，过去两个球季则分别为 87.6 英里与87.9 英里。 Skenes’ barrel rate (6.1%) is slightly above his career average (5.7%), but we’re splitting some serious hairs at this point. Skenes 本季的 Barrel （完美击球/出色击球）率为 6.1%，略高於生涯平均的 5.7%，但 两者差距其实微乎其微，几乎可以忽略不计。 So, how would Skenes grade his first half? 那麽，Skenes 会如何替自己的上半季打分数？ “Probably a B,” Skenes said. “Not terrible. Could have been better. I think I’ve learned a lot. Interesting first half.” Skenes 回答：「大概是 B 吧。」 「不算糟，但还可以更好。我觉得自己学到了很多东西。这确实是一个很有意思的上半季 。」 One of the things Skenes learned is that there’s been a lot of fuss over the performance of pitching coach Bill Murphy. Suffice to say, Skenes doesn’t share those concerns. Skenes 也发现，外界对投手教练 Bill Murphy 的执教表现有不少批评与质疑。不过可以 确定的是，Skenes 并不认同这些看法。 He’s really enjoyed working with Murphy and believes many of the problems the Pirates pitchers have experienced -- they have a 4.32 ERA, 20th in MLB -- are more player-driven than anything. 他很享受与 Murphy 共事，也认为海盗队投手群目前遭遇的许多问题──全队防御率 4.32，排名大联盟第 20 ──主要还是来自球员本身，而不是教练团的问题。 “The job of a coach is to make it simpler for you,” Skenes said. “I think [Murphy] does a good job of that. ‘Throw your four-seamer here because it’s really good when you do that.’ It’s that simple. Go down the list with all the pitches. Skenes 表示：「教练的工作，就是把事情变得更简单。」 「我认为 Murphy 在这方面做得很好。他会告诉你：『你的四缝线速球投到这个位置效果 最好，所以就投到那里。』事情就是这麽简单，其他球种也是同样的道理。」 “People can point fingers there, but I don’t think success or failure from a player is ever on the pitching coach. 「大家可以把矛头指向投手教练，但我不认为球员的成功或失败，应该由投手教练来承担 责任。」 “I think they can help. I think pitching coaches can change careers. But the player is the one who does the work and who goes out there and actually throws the ball.” 「我相信投手教练确实能提供很大的帮助，甚至有能力改变一名投手的职业生涯。但最终 真正付出努力、站上投手丘、把球投出去的人，还是球员自己。」 https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/08000c4b-0b87-480c-97fc-f6af312dae1d.mp4 In Skenes’ case, there are areas for improvement, too. If you look closely at his three seasons and feel comforted by certain trends continuing, it’s also fair to point out when numbers have changed. 就 Skenes 而言，他当然也还有可以改进的地方。如果仔细检视他这三个球季的数据，固 然可以因为许多趋势依旧维持稳定而感到安心，但同样也不能忽略那些已经出现变化的数 据。 For example, Skenes has thrown a career-low 46.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. That’s down from 50.7% last season and below the MLB average of 48.7%. When it comes to pitches that actually result in strikes, that number has declined from 66.1% as a rookie to 65.1% last year and 64.8% in 2026.** 例如，Skenes 本季投进 好球带（Zone%）的比例仅 46.4% ，创下生涯新低，不但低於去 年的 50.7% ，也低於大联盟平均的 48.7% 。 若进一步观察最终形成好球的比例（Strike%），也从新人球季的 66.1%，下降至去年的 65.1% ，本季则为 64.8% 。 Enough to make a huge difference? Debatable. But when Skenes has struggled, it has most often included some combination of two-strike and fastball execution and the need to be around the plate more. 这样的变化是否足以造成巨大的影响？仍有讨论空间。 但当 Skenes 投得不理想时，问题往往都出现在几个环节的组合，包括两好球後的解决打 者能力、速球的控球与执行品质，以及需要更频繁地把球投进好球带。 There’s also his pitching style. As a rookie, Skenes ranked in the 100th percentile of run value achieved by his offspeed stuff, the result of nobody touching his splinker. That pitch hasn’t been as effective (drop in run value from 17 to 2) or as frequently used (28.4% to 11.3% in 2026). 此外，Skenes 的投球策略也有所改变。 新人球季时，他的 Offspeed Run Value 高居全联盟 100 百分位 ，主因就是几乎没有 打者能有效掌握他的 Splinker 。 然而，本季这颗球的威力已有所下降， Run Value 从 (17) 降至 (2) ，使用率也从 (28.4%) 大幅下降至本季的 (11.3%) 。 Since his worst start of the season July 1 in Philadelphia, where he allowed eight runs (seven earned) in just four innings, Skenes has also changed how frequently he relies on his fastball, throwing it 51% and 60% of the time over his last two starts. 自从 7 月 1 日在费城缴出本季最糟糕的一场先发── 4 局失 8 分（其中 7 分自 责）──之後，Skenes 也开始调整配球策略，提高速球的使用比例。 在最近两场先发中，他的速球使用率分别达到 51% 与 60% 。 That’s more akin to how Skenes has attacked in the past, it’s allowed him to consistently pound the zone more. It could also help his splinker play up because the two tunnel off each other well. 这样的配球方式，更接近 Skenes 过去成功时的投球模式，也让他能更持续地攻击好球带 。 此外，速球与 Splinker 之间原本就具有良好的【球路共轨效应（Pitch Tunneling）】 ，提高速球使用率，也有助於让 Splinker 的欺骗性与效果再次提升。 It’s why Skenes isn’t worried. If anything, he’s excited to get going in the second half, believing he and the Pirates still have plenty to prove. 也正因如此，Skenes 并不担心自己的状况。 相反地，他反而相当期待下半季的到来，因为他相信，不论是自己还是海盗队，都还有很 多事情值得去证明。 “We’re in a good spot,” Skenes said. “Kind of wish we didn’t have an All-Star break at this point because we’re playing good baseball. But I’m super-confident in our ability to show up after the break.” Skenes 表示：「我们目前的状况其实很好。」 「老实说，我甚至有点希望现在不要有明星赛休兵周，因为我们最近打得相当不错。不过 ，我对球队在明星赛後重新出发的表现，依然充满信心。」 -- Jason Mackey: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and @JMackey_PGH on X. ——Jason Mackey／MLB.com 海盗队随队记者 --

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