MLB Draft Withdrawals Are Soaring In 2026—Here’s Why 2026年MLB选秀会退出人数暴增——原因就在这里 https://reurl.cc/Z8OQ56 This year, 18 players have officially withdrawn from the the MLB draft, a number that would have seemed shocking just a few years ago. But it’s a clear sign of how the game is changing. 今年已有18名球员正式退出MLB选秀，这个数字若放在几年前，几乎令人难以置信，但这也 清楚显示，棒球环境正在发生改变 Whereas colleges could once offer only a bump up in the amount of scholarship mo ney they provided players to try to induce them to come to school or stay for an other year, now with NIL they can match—or in some cases, exceed—what MLB team s are willing to pay to land these players in the draft. 过去大学只能透过提高奖学金金额，吸引球员入学或多留校一年，如今在 NIL（姓名、肖像 与形象权）制度下，大学提供的报酬已经能与MLB球队开出的签约金匹敌，甚至在某些情况 下还更高 We should make it clear that we are not talking about top draft prospects. There is no school offering NIL compensation packages that come close to what the fir st- and second-round picks will land via draft bonuses. For players like Justin Lebron or Ben Blair, the decisions are usually easy. These top picks are viewed as likely future big leaguers who will receive seven-figure signing bonuses to b egin their pro journeys. 必须先说清楚，这里讨论的并不是顶级选秀新秀，没有任何学校提供的 NIL报酬能接近首轮 、第二轮球员所能获得的签约金，对於像Justin Lebron或Ben Blair这样的球员而言，决定 通常非常简单，他们被视为未来的大联盟球员，将获得数百万美元的七位数签约金，展开职 业生涯 But when you get further down the draft board, there comes a point where the cal culus changes. By Day 2 of this year’s draft, the players viewed as most likely to have MLB futures will have already heard their names called. When the sevent h, 10th, 15th and 20th rounds roll around, teams are picking players who are oft en viewed as long shots to be big leaguers. Instead, they are players expected t o perform solidly in Class A, but likely to hit a point in Double-A, Triple-A or after a cup of coffee in the majors where their lack of tools, athleticism or s ome other flaw will mean they reach a ceiling. 但随着顺位往後，情况就会改变，到了今年选秀第二天，被认为最有机会登上大联盟的球员 大多已经被选走，等到第 7、10、15、20 轮时，各队挑选的往往是被视为「有机会但希望 不大」的大联盟候选人，他们通常能在 1A有稳定表现，但到了 2A、3A，甚至短暂登上大联 盟後，往往会因工能性、运动能力或其他缺陷而遇到发展天花板 Every year, some of those third-tier draft prospects prove everyone wrong. But m ore often than not, they end up spending two, three or four years in the minors before they are released to begin the rest of their lives. 每年都会有少数第三梯队的新秀打破外界预期、证明所有人都错了，但更多情况下，他们是 在小联盟待了两、三甚至四年後遭到释出，接着展开人生的下一个阶段 And those are the players for whom the landscape has changed. 而真正受到这波变化影响的，正是这一类球员 For those players, colleges have found that they can be financially competitive with MLB teams. And that kind of money has also created a new form of leverage f or schools to create some clarity in what is the most uncertain part of the year -long process of roster building. 对这些球员而言，大学已发现自己在经济条件上已经足以与 MLB 球队竞争，这笔资金也让 学校拥有新的谈判筹码，在一年一度最不确定的阵容规划过程中，提升球员去留的确定性 A few draft withdrawals each year have long been a part of the MLB draft process . Unlike the other major U.S. sports, in which players become draft-eligible by expressing their intention to enter the draft, baseball players don’t declare f or the MLB draft. Instead, every single eligible player is automatically draft-e ligible whether they intend to sign or are equally adamant that they plan to go to college/stay in college. 每年出现几位退出选秀的球员，本来就是MLB选秀的一部分，与其他美国主流运动不同，那 些运动需要球员主动宣布参加选秀；棒球则不是如此，只要符合资格，所有球员都会自动具 有选秀资格，不论他们打算签约，还是早已决定要升学或留在大学 So, instead of making a statement that a player wants to be part of the MLB draf t, a player who does not want to be draft-eligible instead has to officially dec lare to MLB that they do not want to be drafted. 因此球员不是透过声明表示要参加选秀，而是如果不希望被选，就必须正式向 MLB提出退出 选秀的申请 Usually, a couple of high school prospects each year submit a withdrawal, making it clear they intend to go to college and do not want to be even considered for the draft. This year, there have been a significant number of college players w ithdrawing. Some of these withdrawals remain the same as before—a player is ada mant that they want to stay in school. By withdrawing, they don’t have to deal with phone calls or answer questions about how firm that commitment is. 以往每年通常只有几位高中新秀会退出选秀，明确表示自己打算升学，不希望球队选中自己 ，但今年退出选秀的大学生球员明显增加，其中有些原因仍与过去相同——球员已下定决心 留校，因此退出选秀後，就不用再接到各队电话，也不用反覆回答自己留校意愿是否坚定 But in other cases, players are facing a choice presented by colleges: Withdraw from the draft or face a reduction in their compensation package if they end up staying in school for the upcoming year. 但另外一些球员则面临学校提出的选择：退出选秀，就能保留完整的待遇；若仍参加选秀， 最後又回到学校，待遇就会被调降 The offer is a simple one. A school will say something to the effect of, “Here is your compensation package. If you withdraw from the draft, you get all of thi s. But if you opt to take your chancs in the draft, your package will be reduce d.” 学校提出的条件其实很简单，大意就是：「这是我们提供给你的待遇，如果你退出选秀，这 些都能拿到；但如果你决定参加选秀试试看，那麽这份待遇就会缩水」 For a player who was strongly leaning on going (or staying) in college anyway, s uch a decision becomes an almost necessary one. Why lose significant money that is already lined up on the uncertain chance of getting more money in the draft? 对原本就倾向升学或留校的球员而言，这几乎成了不得不做的选择，既然已有一笔确定能拿 到的收入，又何必为了可能获得更多、但充满不确定性的选秀机会而冒险失去它？ As such, a player’s agent will get a feel for their client’s likely bonus rang e. If a player begins to realize that they are unlikely to receive equivalent mo ney as a draft bonus to their NIL package, then they withdraw from the draft in what is almost a no-brainer decision. 因此球员经纪人通常会先评估球员可能获得的签约金范围，如果球员发现自己在选秀中很难 拿到与NIL待遇相当的金额，那麽退出选秀几乎就是毫不犹豫的决定 Nowadays, we are seeing third- and fourth-tier draft prospects who have learned they are worth more to their college team than they are to pro clubs. A savvy, e xperienced college player with modest tools but solid production generally fits in the second day of the draft. They are draftable, but not a priority for teams . And their low six-figure signing bonuses would reflect that. 如今许多第三、第四梯队的新秀发现，自己对大学球队的价值，其实比对职业球队还高，一 位经验丰富、比赛表现稳定，但天赋普通的大学生球员，通常会落在选秀第二天被挑中，他 们具备被选中的实力，但不是各队优先目标，因此签约金往往只有十几万美元等级 But as a returning senior Saturday starter, a reliable shortstop or veteran thum p in the middle of the lineup, they are worth more than that to a college team w ith hopes for reaching Omaha in 2027. In some cases, players are finding they ca n make more money going back to school for another year than they would going pr o. 但如果他们回到大学，成为资深先发投手、可靠的游击手，或是打线中心的主力打者，对一 支以2027年打进大学是大赛为目标的大学球队而言，价值就远远超过那笔签约金，有些球员 甚至发现，再留校一年所赚的钱，比现在投入职棒还多 Those players will be less appealing to MLB teams next year. Because of the rece ntly adopted NCAA eligibility rules changes, those players will be seniors next year, but will in many cases still have eligibility for a fifth season in 2028, if they so desire. So, while they will be seniors next season, they won’t be tr ue “senior signs” with no negotiating leverage. They will still be older, thou gh, and a 22- or 23-year-old draft prospect is less appealing to teams than a si milar caliber player who is only 21. 不过这些球员到了明年的选秀，对MLB球队的吸引力将有所下降，由於NCAA 最近修改了资格 规定，这些球员虽然明年会是四年级生，但很多人在2028年仍保有第五年的参赛资格，因此 他们虽然是高年级生，却不是完全没有谈判筹码的「Senior Sign」，然而他们年纪终究更 大，22、23 岁的新秀，相较於同等实力但只有21岁的球员，对球队吸引力仍然较低 Still, those types of players may have made more money by staying in school than they would make in pro ball unless they exceed expectations. And for that reaso n, the trend of larger numbers of draft withdrawals will likely continue to clim b. 尽管如此，除非他们进入职业後的表现远超预期，否则留在大学所获得的收入，很可能仍比 投入职棒更多，因此可以预期，未来退出 MLB选秀的人数还将持续增加 --

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