Higher velocity but fewer fastballs part of pitching evolution MLB hitters face more adjustments against late-inning arms Jared Greenspan https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-hardest-throwers-using-fewer-fastballs 更快球速、却更少使用速球，已成为现代投球进化的一部分 面对後段局数牛棚投手，大联盟打者正遭遇更多新的挑战 Earlier this week, Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla referred to Mason Miller as the best pitcher in baseball. That may incite debate, but Miller certainly belongs in the conversation -- his early-season dominance (including a 0.79 ERA and a 51.7% strikeout rate) already has us wondering about his potential Cy Young candidacy. 本周稍早，教士队投手教练 Ruben Niebla 甚至将 Mason Miller 称为当今棒球界最好的 投手。这样的说法或许会引发讨论，但 Miller 确实已经具备被纳入这项讨论的资格── 他本季开局的宰制表现（包括 0.79 防御率与 51.7% 三振率）已让人开始思考他是否有 机会角逐赛扬奖。 Here is something less debatable: Miller is baseball’s hardest-throwing reliever. His average fastball velocity is 101.3 mph, which clears the second-place qualifier, Edgardo Henriquez, by more than a full mph (100.2). If we include starting pitchers, only Jacob Misiorowski has thrown more pitches 102+ mph than Miller this season, and he’s taken over 500 more pitches to do so. The Miz is the only player to hold a candle to Miller’s heat. Otherwise, in an era where everyone is training for velocity, Miller laps the field. 有件事则几乎没有争议：Miller 是目前棒球界球速最快的後援投手。他的四缝线速球平均 球速高达 101.3 英里，比排名第二的 Edgardo Henriquez（100.2 英里）还快超过整整 1 英里。若把先发投手也纳入比较，本季只有 Jacob Misiorowski 投出超过 102 英里以 上球速的球数比 Miller 更多，但 Misiorowski 为此多投了超过 500 球。「The Miz」是 唯一能在球速方面与 Miller 相提并论的投手。除此之外，即使身处人人都在追求球速的 年代，Miller 依旧遥遥领先整个联盟。 Yes, Miller can throw a baseball comically fast. That is not news. But here’ s where things get weird: He’s using his heater less than ever before. Entering play on Saturday, Miller is throwing his four-seam fastball just 42% of the time. That’s down from 52% last season and 63% in 2024; since joining the Padres at the Deadline last August, Miller’s 4-seam usage rate is 45.4%. 没错，Miller 能把棒球投得快到近乎夸张，这早已不是新闻。但奇怪的地方在於：他如今 使用速球的比例，反而比以往任何时候都更低。截至周六赛事开始前，Miller 的四缝线速 球使用率仅有 42%。相比之下：2025 年为 52%；2024 年高达 63%。若只计算去年八月交 易截止日前往教士之後的期间，他的四缝线使用率也只有 45.4%。 https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/zm4nisl8te9br0tbmjcr.jpg If anything, Miller is late to a trend that has swept across baseball over the last several years. Pitchers continue to throw harder than they have before -- the average fastball (4-seamer or sinker) thrown by a Major League pitcher in 2026 is 94.4 mph, which would be the hardest of any year in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008). But pitchers are also throwing fewer fastballs. We’ve seen entire pitching staffs overhaul their approach to de-emphasize “bad” fastballs. This season, the league is throwing fastballs just 46.7% of the time, a rate that’s nearly 10% less than what it was a decade ago. 事实上，Miller 只是稍晚跟上近几年席卷整个棒坛的一股趋势。投手们的球速仍持续提升 ──2026 年大联盟投手所投出的平均速球（四缝线与伸卡球合计）球速达到 94.4 英里， 若维持到季末，将成为投球追踪时代（2008 年以来）最快的一年。然而另一方面，投手们 投出的速球比例却愈来愈少。我们已经看过许多球队的整体投手群彻底改变投球策略，刻 意降低那些被认为效果较差的速球使用频率。本季全联盟速球使用率仅有 46.7%，比十年 前下降了将近 10 个百分点。 But why Miller? He certainly doesn’t fit in the “bad fastball” group. His fastball sizzles to the plate, and he’s had plenty of success relying on it. In 2024, when he threw his 4-seamer nearly two-thirds of the time, he posted a 2.63 ERA and struck out 104 batters in 61 2/3 innings. 但问题是：为什麽是 Miller？他显然不属於那些「速球品质不佳」的投手。他的速球带着 惊人的火力冲向本垒板，而且长期以来都依靠这颗球取得巨大成功。2024 年，当他的四缝 线使用率接近三分之二时，他缴出：2.63 防御率、61.2 局送出 104 次三振的优异成绩。 So, why the change? 那麽，究竟为什麽要改变？ “The biggest thing is the slider zaps damage,” Miller told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. “... The fastball in a vacuum is a good pitch. But metrically, or analytically, offspeed are generally better-performing pitches than the fastball. If you look at the big scope of data, most of the damage is done on four-seam fastballs.” Miller 在接受 MLB.com 记者 AJ Cassavell 采访时表示：「最重要的原因是，滑球能有 效降低被打出长打与造成伤害的机率。」「……单独来看，速球本身当然是一颗好球种。 但从数据分析角度来看，变化球通常比速球有更好的表现。如果把整体资料放大来看，大 部分的强劲击球其实都是发生在四缝线速球上。」 For as good as the fastball is -- the opposition is hitting .185 off it with a 42% whiff rate -- the slider is even better. Batters are 5-for-47 with 32 strikeouts against Miller’s slider. They’ve come up empty 52 times on 82 swings. When they do make contact, it’s not pretty. Miller has not allowed an extra-base hit off his slider since Aug. 27, 2024, when now-Padres teammate Ty France legged out a hustle double. 尽管他的速球已经非常出色──对手面对这颗球的打击率仅 .185，挥空率则高达 42%。但 他的滑球甚至更可怕。打者面对 Miller 滑球的成绩只有：47 打数 5 安打、32 次三振。 在 82 次挥棒中，他们有 52 次直接挥空落空。而即便真的碰到球，结果通常也不理想。 Miller 自 2024 年 8 月 27 日 以来，就再也没有被打者从滑球敲出任何长打。当时唯一 做到的人，正是如今成为他教士队友的 Ty France，靠着积极跑垒拚出一支二垒安打。 Part of this is because Miller’s slider is absolutely nasty. Stuff+ grades it as one of the best slider shapes in baseball. But its success is also predicated on Miller’s triple-digit heat. The two pitches work in tandem. Even though he’s using his fastball less often than he has in the past, the mere threat of it makes the slider better. 其中一部分原因当然是因为 Miller 的滑球本身就极具破坏力。依据 Stuff+ 指标评估， 他的滑球轨迹形态被认为是全联盟最顶尖的滑球之一。但这颗球之所以如此成功，也建立 在 Miller 那颗突破三位数球速的火球之上。这两种球路其实是相辅相成的。即使他如今 投速球的频率比过去更低，但光是让打者必须提防那颗超过 100 英里的速球存在，就足以 让他的滑球变得更加致命。 “If you go soft, go soft, then you go heater, it’s kind of putting a guy in a really hard situation to succeed,” Miller said. “If you’re not able to take your A-swing because you have to respect another pitch, I think that probably helps.” Miller 表示：「如果你先丢变化球、再丢变化球，接着突然来一颗速球，那会让打者陷入 非常难以成功应对的处境。」「当你因为必须顾虑另一种球路，而无法毫无保留地挥出自 己最完整、最有力量的挥棒时，我认为那绝对会对投手有所帮助。」 That mindset represents a trend that we’re seeing among some of baseball’s hardest-throwing relief pitchers. A number of high-leverage arms who wield triple-digit fastballs are still using their fastball as a weapon. But it is no longer the weapon of choice. 这样的思维其实反映出近年来大联盟顶级火球後援投手的一项共同趋势。许多能够飙出三 位数球速的高杠杆牛棚投手，依然把速球当成重要武器，但它已经不再是他们最优先依赖 的主力武器。 Among the game's hardest-throwing relievers, only Pirates LHP Mason Montgomery throws an overwhelming amount of 4-seamers. （在联盟球速最快的後援投手群中，只有海盗左投 Mason Montgomery 仍以压倒性的比例 使用四缝线速球。） https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/v1779547137/mlb/n1v9ey6qzi3rwqsxai4k.jpg Pitchers who throw hard are beginning to use their fastball less, too. Seven of the above relievers have cut their 4-seam usage from 2025 to 2026. 即使是这些火球派投手，也开始逐渐降低速球使用率。上述名单中的投手，有 7 位 在 2025 年至 2026 年间下修了四缝线速球的使用比例。 “I think it’s a lot easier to cheat on a fastball,” said Padres manager Craig Stammen. “When guys are facing guys with that type of stuff, it’s easier to pick the fastball than to pick the slider as what you want to swing at. So pitchers are combatting that by: ‘I’m going to show you a fastball, but then you’re getting something else that’s moving a lot.’” 教士总教练 Craig Stammen 说：「我认为速球其实比较容易被提前锁定。」「当打者面对 这种等级球威的投手时，比起猜滑球，他们更容易把速球当成自己准备出棒的目标球种。 」「因此投手们正在用另一种方式反制：『我会让你看到速球，但接下来你得到的，会是 另一颗有巨大位移的球。』」 For some, that’s simply another fastball. Nine of the 12 qualified relievers who average 98.0 mph or better with their 4-seamer also have a second fastball shape. Some, like Braves closer Robert Suarez, have three -- Suarez slashed his 4-seam usage by 12% from ‘25 to ‘26 while restoring an old cutter. Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz broke into the Majors in 2019 and used his heater two-thirds of the time. Since then, he’s added a two-seamer and a kick-changeup while making his slider his primary pitch. His 27% usage rate on his 4-seamer this season would be a career low. 对某些投手而言，那个「另一颗球」其实还是速球。在目前四缝线平均球速达 98英里以上 、且符合排行榜资格的 12 名後援投手中，有 9 人同时拥有第二种不同轨迹的速球球种。 有些投手甚至更多。例如勇士终结者 Robert Suarez 就拥有三种速球型态。他在 2026 年 将四缝线使用率比 2025 年降低了 12 个百分点，同时重新启用了过去曾使用过的卡特球 。 水手终结者 Andrés Muñoz 则是另一个典型例子。2019 年刚升上大联盟时，他有将近 三分之二的投球都是速球。但之後几年里，他陆续加入：二缝线速球（Two-seamer）、 Kick Changeup（踢腿式变速球），同时让滑球成为自己的主要决胜球。本季他的四缝线使 用率仅有 27%，将创下生涯新低。 (Of note, the list doesn’t include Miller’s teammate, Adrian Morejon, whose primary fastball is a 99.4 mph sinker. This year, Morejon has cut his sinker usage by 14% while bumping his 4-seam usage.) （值得一提的是，这份名单并未纳入 Miller 的教士队友 Adrian Morejon，因为他的主 要速球其实是平均球速 99.4 英里 的伸卡球。Morejon 本季也将伸卡球使用率降低了 14 个百分点，并同步提高四缝线速球的使用比例。） https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/myldjwe6ewighddvjlw4.jpg This is another evolution in the cat-and-mouse game between pitchers and hitters. In some ways, it is also preemptive. Velocity remains king. Batters are posting a .212 BA and .313 SLG in plate appearances that have ended on pitches thrown 98+ mph this season. It is supremely difficult to hit. But everyone throws hard now. Already this season, 180 pitchers have thrown a pitch 98 mph or faster. Ten years ago, in 2016, only 159 pitchers reached that threshold all season. The novelty is gone. 这其实是投手与打者之间「猫捉老鼠」攻防战的最新进化。某种程度上，这甚至是一种超 前部署。因为球速依旧是王道。本季所有以 98 英里以上球速作为打席最後一球的对决中 ，打者整体成绩只有：打击率 .212、长打率 .313。可见这种球速仍然极难击中。 然而问题在於：现在几乎每个人都投得很快。截至目前为止，本季已有 180 名投手 投出 至少一颗 98 英里以上 的球。而十年前的 2016 年，整个赛季也只有 159 名投手 达成这 个门槛。过去那种令人惊叹的稀有感，早已消失不见。 “I remember eight years ago, it was just some guy coming out of the bullpen, ” said Rangers outfielder Andrew McCutchen. “I’d ask, ‘How hard does this guy throw?’ ‘Oh, he throws 98 to 100.’ My eyes would blow up and I would go, ‘Jesus, that guy throws that hard?’ Now, if someone comes in, he’s 96 to 98, 98 to 100. It’s like, ‘OK.’ It gets to a point, it’s a commonality in the game now. You kind of get used to it.” 游骑兵外野手 Andrew McCutchen 说： 「我记得八年前，只要有个牛棚投手登板，我就会问：『这家伙球有多快？』」 「别人回答：『喔，他大概 98 到 100 英里。』」 「我的眼睛立刻睁得超大，然後心想：『天啊，这家伙竟然投那麽快？』」 「但现在只要有人上场，不是 96 到 98，就是 98 到 100。」 「感觉就只是：『喔，好吧。』」 「到了某个程度後，这已经变成比赛中的日常现象了。」 「你也就慢慢习惯了。」 McCutchen has endured the velocity revolution from the other side. As a rookie with the Pirates in 2009, McCutchen saw six pitches 98 mph or faster all season. A year later, Pittsburgh faced Aroldis Chapman during the left-hander’s second week in the Majors. McCutchen’s first at-bat against Chapman came the following season. At the time, Chapman’s fastball was a unicorn pitch, because no one threw that hard, and no one came close from the left-hand side. In his third year in the Majors, in 2012, Chapman threw his 4-seamer 87.6% of the time. There was no reason not to. McCutchen 是从打者角度亲身经历整场「球速革命」的人之一。2009 年还是海盗新人时， 整个赛季他只看过 6 颗球速达 98 英里以上的球。一年後，海盗队碰上刚升上大联盟第二 周的 Aroldis Chapman。而 McCutchen 第一次真正站上打击区面对 Chapman，则是在隔年 。当时 Chapman 的速球几乎就像独角兽一般罕见。原因很简单：没有人投得那麽快。而且 更夸张的是，没有人能以左投身份投出那种球速。2012 年，也就是 Chapman 大联盟生涯 第三个球季时，他的四缝线速球使用率高达 87.6%。因为当年的环境下，他根本没有理由 不这麽做。毕竟那颗速球本身就已经足以摧毁所有打者。 https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1971756786530361683 “You knew you were going to get a fastball,” McCutchen said. “It was just a matter of where it was going to be. It could be down the middle or it could be in your ribs. But you knew it was going to be a fastball. You had to shrink up your swing and your zone and just try to be prepared to hit it.” McCutchen 回忆道： 「你知道自己一定会看到速球。」 「问题只在於它会出现在哪里。」 「可能正中红心，也可能直接往你的肋骨飞过来。」 「但你知道那一定是速球。」 「因此你必须缩小挥棒幅度、缩小攻击区域，尽可能做好击中它的准备。」 That’s what happened next: Batters learned to train for velo, figuring out how to get their A-swing off against premium heat. Advancements in technology gave players a wealth of options. Some use Blast Motion technology to track new-age hitting metrics like attack angles, vertical bat angles and bat speed on every swing. Others hit off foam-ball machines that are designed to simulate a plus fastball. Some work on developing quick hands. Some use weighted bats to build up bat speed, so that they can catch up to faster pitches. Anything to stay on plane and on time. 而接下来发生的事情就是： 打者开始学习如何适应极速球。 他们研究如何在面对顶级火球时，依然能够挥出自己最完整的攻击挥棒（A-swing）。 科技进步也提供了大量训练工具。 有些球员使用 Blast Motion 系统追踪现代打击数据，例如： 挥棒攻击角度（Attack Angle） 球棒垂直角度（Vertical Bat Angle） 挥棒速度（Bat Speed） 并记录每一次挥击表现。 还有些球员会利用发泡球发球机（Foam-ball Machine）进行训练。 这类设备专门模拟顶级速球的飞行效果。 有人专注训练更快的出棒速度与手部反应。 有人利用加重球棒（Weighted Bat）提升挥棒速度，好让自己能赶上更快的球速。 无论方法为何，目的都相同： 让球棒保持在正确挥击轨道上，并在正确时机击中来球。 This is all part of a hitter’s nomenclature these days. That wasn’t always the case, even just a few years ago. 如今，这些训练观念已经成为现代打者的基本术语与日常课题。但其实几年前的棒球世界 并非如此。 Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle -- who is hitting .317 against fastballs -- only incorporated a weighted bat routine to train for bat speed last offseason. He didn’t see consistent velocity until high school travel ball. That was around the same time that Rangers infielder Jake Burger had a rude awakening against Carlos Rodón at the White Sox alternate site in 2020. 老虎新人 Kevin McGonigle 本季面对速球打击率高达 .317。然而直到去年休赛季，他才 首次开始利用加重球棒训练挥棒速度。而他真正开始稳定面对高球速投手，也是到了高中 旅行球队（Travel Ball）阶段才发生的事。 差不多也是同一时期，游骑兵内野手 Jake Burger 曾经在白袜队 2020 年替代训练基地 （Alternate Site）面对 Carlos Rodón 时，遭遇了一次震撼教育。 “I used to have an Arenado-like stepback move with my swing, and he absolutely blew me up with three heaters,” Burger said. “I was like, ‘OK, we’ve got to make an adjustment.’” Burger 回忆说： 「以前我的挥棒有点像 Nolan Arenado 那种向後跨步的准备动作。」 「结果 Rodón 连续三颗速球直接把我打爆。」 「当下我心想：『好吧，我得做出调整了。』」 It’s what hitters have always done. 而这正是打者一直以来都在做的事情。 “You adjust, or you go home,” McCutchen told me with a laugh. McCutchen 笑着对记者说：「你要嘛调整，要嘛回家。」 Across the league, hitters are searching for answers to what Mets second baseman Marcus Semien calls “the golden ticket to hitting” -- being ready for velocity while having enough restraint to lay off sharper pitches out of the zone. It’s not a new problem, but it may be more pressing, thanks to pitch usage trends from Miller and other hard throwers. 放眼整个联盟，打者们都在寻找大都会二垒手 Marcus Semien 所说的： 「打击的黄金门票（The Golden Ticket to Hitting）。」 那代表着：既能准备好应付高速球，却又保有足够耐心，不去追打那些飞出好球带的大幅 变化球。这并不是全新的难题。但随着 Miller 与其他火球投手改变球种使用习惯，这项 挑战如今显得更加迫切。 “It’s never going to be easy with guys throwing that hard,” Semien said. Semien 表示：「面对投这麽快的投手，本来就不可能是一件容易的事。」 Technology offers some answers, particularly via the Trajekt Arc, a pitch-replication robot that simulates exactly what the hitter will see in the game, mimicking velocity and spin from the pitcher’s release point. Pregame scouting reports also distill information about a pitcher’s count-based usage, allowing hitters to anticipate a fastball or breaking ball in certain counts. It helped Mets outfielder Tyrone Taylor launch a three-run homer off a first-pitch curveball from Yankees closer David Bednar, who is throwing his 95.8 mph 4-seamer a career-low 39% of the time. 科技的确提供了一部分答案。其中最具代表性的工具之一，就是 Trajekt Arc。这是一种 投球模拟机器人，可以精准重现打者在正式比赛中将看到的球路。它能模拟投手从出手点 开始的：球速、转速、球路轨迹，让打者提前适应即将面对的投手。 赛前球探报告也同样能提供帮助。这些报告会整理投手在不同球数情境下的配球倾向，让 打者能预判某些球数更可能出现速球或变化球。 这样的准备曾帮助大都会外野手 Tyrone Taylor。当他面对洋基终结者 David Bednar 时 ，成功将第一球曲球轰成三分全垒打。值得注意的是，Bednar 本季平均 95.8 英里 的四 缝线速球使用率只有 39%，创下生涯新低。 Other hitters stick to an old-school approach. Orioles outfielder Taylor Ward hits curveballs before the game, a tactic he learned from Albert Pujols and Mike Trout while the three were teammates with the Angels. Ward prefers to stand in on a pitcher’s bullpen to see a live arm, rather than a simulation. 也有一些打者仍然坚持较为传统的方法。金莺外野手 Taylor Ward 便是如此。赛前他会刻 意练习打曲球。这项习惯来自当年效力天使时，向 Albert Pujols 与 Mike Trout 学到的 经验。比起机器模拟，Ward 更喜欢直接站进投手牛棚旁观察真人投球。因为他认为亲眼观 看真实投手出手，更能掌握实战感觉。 “It starts with the first video you watched of the guy you’re about to face, ” Burger said. “Once an at-bat, I think, they’re going to throw a fastball. That conviction helps you lay off some of their nastier offspeed stuff and get to a count where you can get a fastball.” Burger 表示： 「一切都从你观看对手的第一支影片开始。」 「我认为每个打席至少会有一次机会，他们会投速球。」 「抱持这种确信，能帮助你放掉那些更刁钻的变化球。」 「然後把自己带进一个有机会等到速球的球数。」 When facing the game’s hardest throwers, that used to be a given. It is less so nowadays. Hitters are adjusting, which suits them. That’s always defined what being a hitter is all about. 过去当打者面对联盟最火球的投手时，等速球几乎是理所当然的事情。如今却不再如此。 打者们正在持续调整。而这本来就是打者的工作。事实上，这也是「成为一名打者」最核 心的定义。 “It’s just the way the game’s evolved,” Ward said. “It’s funny how the cycle goes. Every year, it’s something different. The biggest thing with us is just preparing. You hope you get your fastball. But maybe it’s the evolution, if we get better at hitting offspeed, they’ll go back to more fastballs. It’s the teeter-totter of the game.” Ward 最後总结道： 「这就是棒球演化的方式。」 「很有趣的是，这种循环总是不断重演。」 「每一年，大家面对的挑战都不一样。」 「对我们而言，最重要的就是做好准备。」 「你当然希望自己等到速球。」 「但也许未来的演化方向会是──如果我们变得更擅长打变化球，那投手们可能又会重新 增加速球比例。」 「这就是棒球世界里永不停歇的翘翘板效应。」 -Jared Greenspan is a reporter for MLB.com.- ※※※顺道看了一下kick-changeup 投球忍者频道 介绍kick-changeup握法、投法、作用 -2025年3月31日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogKpLlFDwD4 ※ 透过(有多种球种的先发)叠影感受球种差异 2025年Skenes球种叠影 An Overlay of all 9 of Paul Skenes' Strikeouts vs. the Dodgers. 4 Fastballs 1 Sinker 1 Sweeper 1 Curveball 1 Changeup 1 Splinker https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1916101761208635403 ※ 2024年 达尔球种叠影 Yu Darvish's 5 Pitch K vs. Ohtani. 5 Different Pitches: Cutter, Curve, Sweeper, Fastball & Slider. https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1843283022873071667 --

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