How will Skubal's elbow surgery impact Tigers, free agency? 7:11 AM GMT+8 Mark Feinsand https://www.mlb.com/news/tarik-skubal-elbow-surgery-impact-on-tigers-free-agency https://shorturl.at/EqN0i Skubal 的手肘手术，将如何影响老虎队与自由市场？ The news that Tarik Skubal will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow sent shockwaves throughout the game on Monday, as the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner will be sidelined for the next two or three months. Tarik Skubal 将接受手术，移除左手肘内的游离体（loose bodies）的消息，在周一震 撼了整个棒球界。这位两届美联赛扬奖得主，将因此缺席接下来两到三个月。 What does that mean for the Tigers in their pursuit of a second straight AL Central title? What effect will this have on the offseason, where Skubal was expected to command a record-setting deal in free agency? 这对老虎队在争取连续第二座美联中区冠军的目标意味着什麽？而在休赛季方面，原本被 预期能在自由市场签下一纸破纪录合约的 Skubal，这次伤势又会带来什麽影响？ What do the Tigers do now? Replacing one of the best pitchers in baseball -- if not the best -- is never easy, but trying to do so in early May is even more difficult. 老虎队现在该怎麽办？ 要取代联盟最顶尖的投手之一──甚至可能是最强的那位──从来都不是件容易的事，而 在五月初就必须面对这个问题，更是难上加难。 With Skubal headed for surgery, Detroit’s rotation currently consists of Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero, with Casey Mize on the injured list and Ty Madden expected to fill Skubal’s spot for the immediate future. 随着 Skubal 将动手术，底特律目前的轮值包括：Framber Valdez、Jack Flaherty、 Keider Montero。Casey Mize 目前在伤兵名单中，而 Ty Madden 预计将在短期内顶替 Skubal 的位置。 Troy Melton (right elbow inflammation), who began a rehab assignment on Sunday, should be ready to return from the injured list by the end of the month. Drew Anderson could also become an option, though the Tigers may need him in the bullpen given the injury to Will Vest (right lateral forearm inflammation). Troy Melton（右手肘发炎）已於周日开始复健赛，预计在本月底前可以从伤兵名单归队。 Drew Anderson 也可能成为轮值选项之一，但考量到 Will Vest（右前臂外侧发炎）受伤 ，老虎队可能更需要他待在牛棚支援。 President of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely scour the trade market, though that doesn’t typically become active for at least another month. Some of the league’s underachievers could become sellers if they’re unable to turn things around, but most front offices will likely wait a while before packing it in for 2026. 棒球营运总裁 Scott Harris 势必会在交易市场上寻找补强机会，但交易市场通常至少还 要一个月才会开始活络。如果一些目前表现不如预期的球队无法扭转战局，他们可能会转 为卖家；不过，多数球团在决定是否放弃竞争、开始为 2026 年布局之前，通常会再观望 一段时间。 “Most teams -- both buyers and sellers -- will give it until June 1 to see how the market develops,” an AL executive said. 一位美联高层表示：「大多数球队──无论是买方还是卖方──都会等到 6 月 1 日左右 ，才会真正观察市场走向。」 Which starters could become available? If the Mets continue to falter, Freddy Peralta -- a free agent at the end of the season -- could be an interesting option. The same goes for Clay Holmes, who has a $12 million player option for 2027 that he will likely decline based on the way his season is trending. 有哪些先发投手可能进入市场？如果大都会持续低迷，Freddy Peralta ──本季结束後将 成为自由球员──可能会是一个有趣的选项。同样的情况也适用於 Clay Holmes，他在 2027 年拥有 1200 万美元的球员选择权，但以目前球季的发展趋势来看，他很可能会选择 跳出合约。 If Boston ultimately becomes a seller, Sonny Gray could become trade bait come July. The Red Sox are off to a disappointing start, though even entering Monday at 13-21, Boston was only three games back in the AL Wild Card race; in fact, no team in the AL was more than 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with three-quarters of the season still to be played. 如果波士顿最终转为卖家，Sonny Gray 可能会在 7 月成为交易筹码。红袜开季表现令人 失望，不过即使截至周一战绩为 13 胜 21 败，他们在美联外卡竞争中也仅落後 3 场；事 实上，在球季还剩四分之三的情况下，美联没有任何球队落後季後赛席位超过 3.5 场。 The Marlins could shop Sandy Alcantara this summer -- he was the most-selected player in our recent executive poll asking who would be the biggest name moved prior to the Trade Deadline -- but it would be surprising to see him traded this early. Alcantara has a $21 million club option for 2027, so he won’t come cheap. 马林鱼今年夏天可能会兜售 Sandy Alcantara ──在我们最近一项询问高层「谁会成为交 易截止日前最大咖被交易球员」的调查中，他是被提及最多的名字。不过，在这麽早的时 间点就看到他被交易，仍然会让人感到意外。Alcantara 在 2027 年有一个 2100 万美元 的球队选择权，因此他的身价不会便宜。 Joe Ryan’s name figured to be a popular one on the trade market this summer, but the Twins right-hander left his start Sunday with elbow soreness. Robbie Ray is slated to become a free agent this winter, giving the Giants a potential arm to deal in July (if not earlier). Joe Ryan 原本预计会是今年夏天交易市场上的热门人选之一，但这位双城右投在周日的先 发中因手肘酸痛提前退场。另一方面，Robbie Ray 预计将在今年冬天成为自由球员，这让 巨人队在 7 月（甚至更早）拥有一位潜在可以交易的投手筹码。 One pitcher mentioned in our executive poll who won’t be going anywhere? Skubal. Not that the Tigers were likely to trade him anyway, but given the price tag he was expected to command this winter, the possibility was going to exist until the minute the Deadline passes on Aug. 3. 在我们的高层调查中，有一位被点名「不会被交易」的投手是谁？就是 Tarik Skubal。当 然，老虎队本来就不太可能交易他；但考量到他原本预期在今年冬天可能拿下的天价合约 ，在 8 月 3 日交易截止日前，这样的可能性理论上仍会一直存在。 What does this mean for Skubal’s free agency? While Skubal’s injury is devastating news for the 2026 Tigers, the bigger picture may be how it will impact the lefty’s free agency this offseason. Skubal was expected to land the biggest guaranteed contract for any pitcher in history -- the current record belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers -- when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year. 这对 Skubal 的自由市场有什麽影响？ 虽然这次受伤对 2026 年的老虎队来说是重大打击，但从更大的角度来看，关键在於这会 如何影响这位左投在今年休赛季的自由市场行情。Tarik Skubal 原本被预期在年底成为自 由球员时，将签下一纸史上投手最大保证合约──目前纪录是 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 与道 奇签下的 12 年 3.25 亿美元合约。 How much -- if any -- will this elbow injury cost the 29-year-old this winter? 那麽，这次手肘伤势，会让这位 29 岁投手在今年冬天损失多少（如果有的话）？ “It depends on if he comes back and pitches,” a National League executive said. “And pitches effectively.” 一位国联高层表示：「这取决於他是否能回到场上投球，」「以及──投得是否依然有效 率。」 The standard timetable for such a surgery is 2-3 months, but until the procedure actually takes place and the extent of the damage is determined, it ’s difficult to predict when Skubal will be back on a mound. 这类手术的标准恢复期通常是 2 到 3 个月，但在实际动刀、确认损伤程度之前，很难准 确预测 Skubal 何时能重返投手丘。 “It’s all going to depend on the medical,” an AL executive said of the impact on Skubal’s free-agent situation. “Not much if it’s just a loose-body cleanup.” 另一位美联高层谈到这次伤势对自由市场的影响时表示：「一切都取决於医疗检查结果。 」「如果只是单纯清除游离体，那影响不会太大。」 Another AL executive noted that loose bodies can sometimes be a sign of ligament damage in the elbow, later leading to Tommy John surgery. As long as Skubal returns without incident, this latest injury shouldn’t be a huge factor in his free agency as long as he can come back and show he’s healthy before the end of the season. 还有一位美联高层指出，手肘中的游离体有时可能是韧带受损的徵兆，未来甚至可能导致 需要接受 Tommy John surgery（韧带重建手术）。只要 Skubal 能顺利复出、没有後续问 题，并在球季结束前证明自己已经恢复健康，那麽这次伤势理论上不会对他的自由市场价 值造成太大影响。 Skubal’s case is a unique one. There is very little precedent for a top free agent -- let alone the top free agent of his class -- suffering a major injury and undergoing surgery in the months prior to hitting the open market. Tarik Skubal 的案例相当特殊。在自由球员市场开放前几个月，顶级自由球员──更别说 是该年度「最大咖」──遭遇重大伤势并接受手术的情况，几乎没有什麽前例可循。 Shane Bieber had posted a strong five-year run with Cleveland from 2019-23, winning the ’20 AL Cy Young Award while making two All-Star teams during that stretch. But the right-hander suffered a torn UCL in his second start of the ’24 season, ending his free-agent year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Bieber returned to the Guardians on a one-year deal for ’25, was traded to the Blue Jays last summer, then exercised his $16 million player option for this season. Shane Bieber 在 2019 至 2023 年效力克里夫兰期间，缴出稳定且优异的五年表现，期间 拿下 2020 年美联赛扬奖，并入选两次全明星。但这位右投在 2024 年球季的第二场先发 中遭遇尺侧副韧带撕裂，并在接受 TJ手术 後，直接结束了他的「合约年」。之後， Bieber 以一年合约回到守护者迎接 2025 年球季，去年夏天被交易到蓝鸟，接着行使了本 季 1600 万美元的球员选择权。 Josh Donaldson, who won AL MVP honors in 2015 and was an All-Star in ’16, battled calf and shoulder issues in his ’18 walk year, forcing him to sign a one-year, $23 million contract with the Braves for the ’19 season. Donaldson posted a strong season in Atlanta, inking a four-year, $92 million deal with the Twins prior to the ’20 season. Josh Donaldson 曾在 2015 年拿下美联 MVP，并於 2016 年入选全明星，但在 2018 年（ 他的合约年）受到小腿与肩膀伤势困扰，最终只能与勇士签下一年 2300 万美元的合约， 迎接 2019 年球季。Donaldson 在亚特兰大打出强势表现後，在 2020 年球季前与双城签 下一纸 4 年 9200 万美元的合约。 Noah Syndergaard missed most of the two years prior to becoming a free agent, throwing only two innings in late-2021 before signing a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels. Noah Syndergaard 在成为自由球员前的两年间几乎都在养伤，直到 2021 年末才投了仅仅 2 局，之後仍与天使签下一年 2100 万美元的合约。 But no impending free agent of Skubal’s level -- not that there have been many -- has faced the situation the left-hander finds himself dealing with now. 但即便如此，像 Skubal 这种等级的自由球员──（而这样的球员本来就不多）──过去 从未有人面临过他现在这样的处境。 Mark Feinsand, a senior national reporter, originally joined MLB.com as a reporter in 2001. --

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