1. 新闻来源： MLBTR 2. 新闻标题： Poll: When Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara? 3. 新闻内容： By Nick Deeds | April 17, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT While this year’s trade deadline is still more than three months away, there ’s perhaps no more obvious trade candidate in the game right now than Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner, Alcantara missed last season due to Tommy John surgery but is back in action with Miami this year. While he was out of commission, the Marlins tore the roster that made the playoffs in 2023 down to the studs, trading everyone from Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. With no end in sight to the rebuild and Alcantara controlled through the 2027 season, it would be a complete shock if the Marlins held onto him until his contract came to a close. Whenever the Marlins trade Alcantara, he’s sure to be an extremely sought-after commodity. The right-hander’s 4.70 ERA in three starts this year is far from impressive, but his peripherals have looked better. He’s generating grounders at a phenomenal 65.1% clip with a 3.86 FIP and a 3.91 xERA despite his lackluster 19% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate. Those strikeout and walk figures will become concerning if they hold up over a larger sample size, but unless that comes to pass, it seems fair to expect the righty to return to his previous dominant form. Since his full-season debut in 2019, Alcantara has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, a 51% grounder rate, and a 21.4% strikeout rate against a 7.1% walk rate. Those numbers don’t hold a candle to his Cy Young season, where he posted a 2.28 ERA and 2.80 FIP in a campaign that led MLB with 8.0 bWAR, but it’s still clearly front-of-the-rotation caliber production overall. Perhaps even more enticing to teams than Alcantara’s rate production is his status as a true workhorse in a game where arms capable of pitching deep into games on a regular basis have become vanishingly rare. Alcantara hasn’t posted less than 184 2/3 innings in any of his four full seasons, and his 858 1/3 innings of work from 2019 to 2023 were second only to Gerrit Cole. That sort of volume would have value even if Alcantara was a league-average pitcher, given the increasing difficulty with which teams are forced to piece together their rotations. He’s also appealing from a financial point of view. He is making $17MM this year and next year, less than half of what some other ace pitchers get. Then there’s a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027. Given his ace-level upside, workhorse reputation, years of control, and affordable contract, Alcantara’s status as one of the most valuable trade chips in the sport is unlikely to change. That gives the Marlins the ability to stay flexible with their plans regarding the prized righty. Reporters Will Sammon of The Athletic and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have suggested that the Marlins have not yet decided if they’ll trade Alcantara at all this season. Alcantara himself tells Jackson that he wants to stay in Miami but is aware that he has no say in the matter. “I’m [just] a player,” he said. “ If they want to trade me for a bag, they can trade me.” While the righty eventually getting moved appears to be something of a fait accompli, the Fish would still have two full seasons of team control to market if they opted to move him this offseason instead. Of course, teams will likely be willing to pay a higher premium for Alcantara at the deadline, when they’d have him available for three pennant races and he wouldn’t be competing with a free agent market rich in rotation talent like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez. Unless the 8-10 Marlins are able to make a surprise surge into contention for an NL Wild Card spot this summer or Alcantara’s performance declines enough that lucrative trade offers start to dry up, it’s hard to see the club getting more value out of their star by waiting for the offseason. With that said, another year of information regarding their prospects and young players could allow them to make more informed decisions about which areas of the roster to target improvements for in the return package. Could the Marlins benefit from moving Alcantara even earlier, as they did with Arraez last May? Such a decision wouldn’t give Alcantara much of an opportunity to prove he’s healthy and back to his usual form, but the extra few months of starts could be very attractive to clubs like the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres that are dealing with injury woes in their rotation already. What’s more, it’s not impossible to imagine a team like the Astros (Valdez), Twins (Pablo Lopez), or Royals (Seth Lugo) that is currently attempting to compete winding up on the outside of the playoff picture come July and marketing their own top starters. That would give potential suitors for Alcantara alternative options they surely wouldn’t have available to them this early in the calendar. When do MLBTR readers think the Marlins should start trying to trade Alcantara? Would jumping the market and opening up the bidding now allow them to maximize their asset, should they wait to see if Alcantara can re-establish himself more before putting him on the market this summer, or could waiting even longer to deal him this offseason be the best course to take? Have your say in the poll below: When should the Marlins trade Sandy Alcantara? Start listening to offers right away, before alternatives hit the market. 48.18% (3,120 votes) Wait until closer to the trade deadline in hopes he improves his results. 39.05% (2,529 votes) Don't trade him at all. Hold and try to compete. 7.71% (499 votes) Hold off for the offseason to see how the current crop of prospects develops. 5.06% (328 votes) 4. 新闻网址： https://reurl.cc/GnjRxy 5. 备注： MLBTR民调：马林鱼什麽时候交易王牌Alcantara？ 虽然距交易大限还有三个多月，但如果要找目前最有可能被交易的球员，马林鱼的王牌 Sandy Alcantara绝对榜上有名。Alcantara是2022年国联赛扬奖，不过去年因为Tommy John手术整季报销，今年重新回到马林鱼轮值。不过问题是在他养伤期间，马林鱼已把 2023年季後赛成员交易走了：Luis Arraez、Jazz Chisholm Jr.、Trevor Rogers、 Jesus Luzardo等。马林鱼显然进入重建期，而且看起来还要重建一段时间。Alcantara到 2027年才进入FA，若马林鱼到约满才放人，那才真的让人跌破眼镜。 Alcantara的现况？(文章是前三场，已更新至第四场的数据) Alcantara目前4场先发的防御率是7.27、滚地球率超级高（59.6%），FIP是4.76，xERA 是4.72。三振率只有17.3%，保送率却有13.3%，这两个数字如果长期下去会是隐忧。不过 除非他的数据持续低迷，否则他还是有机会回到过去的状态。2019年完整出赛以来，他的 数据是 ERA 3.38、FIP 3.73、滚地球率 50.6%、K% 21.3%、BB% 7.1%。虽然这些数字不及 夺下赛扬的那年（ERA 2.28、FIP 2.80，WAR 8.0），但他仍属王牌等级的先发投手。 耐操又便宜，性价比超高 在现今先发投手很难长局数的时代，Alcantara最大的价值是他十分耐投。过去四季最低 都有184.2局，2019~2023 累积了 858.1 局，只有Gerrit Cole 投得比他多。就算只有缴 出联盟平均水准，这种吃局数的能力也十分有价值。更何况他的合约也很便宜，相较於现 在许多王牌年薪动辄就破$30MM，Alcantara的CP值真的很高： 2025 & 2026 年薪：$1700MM 2027 (球队选择权)：（$21MM，买断金 $2MM） 交易的时机点在哪？ 基於他还有几年才进FA、实力又够稳定，马林鱼对於何时交易他富有操作弹性，曾有媒体 披露球队内部还没做出决定，Alcantara本人也说他想留在迈阿密，但知道自己没话语权： 「我只是球员，如果他们想拿一个包包换掉我也没办法。」虽然他被交易看起来是迟早的 事，但马林鱼也可以选择晚一点再交易（例如本季结束後还有两年控制权，交易价值仍然 很高）。 马林鱼要什麽时候出手最好？ 各队如果在交易大限时才出手，愿意付出的代价可能会更高，因为那时Alcantara能帮助 争取各分区龙头，而且Alcantara还有较长的控制年限，不像Dylan Cease、Zac Gallen、 Framber Valdez今年球季结束就成为自由球员。除非马林鱼能爆冷取得外卡资格，或 Alcantara的表现差到报价缩水，否则很难期待马林鱼等到休季才交易还指望能换回更好 的包裹。不过换个角度来看，如果马林鱼愿意等到季後再交易，那时也比较好掌握农场的 现况，对於要补哪些位置、开出什麽样的包裹会更有把握。 还是马林鱼像Arraez交易案一样，提前就交易Alcantara？ 这麽做的缺点是Alcantara可能还没来得及证明自己的状态已完全康复，但多几个月时间 ，对一些目前先发轮值已有受伤的球队（像洋基、小熊、教士）可能很有吸引力。此外， 也不能排除有些目前有竞争力的球队到了七月会跌出竞争行列，像太空人Valdez、双城 Pablo Lopez、皇家Seth Lugo，到时候也可能把自家王牌拿出来交易。届时有意Alcantara 的球队可能会有更多选择，而不像现在这麽少选择。 MLBTR截至目前的票数分布如下（来自MLBTR网站）： 1. 现在就开始接受报价：48.18%（3,120票） 2. 等到交易大限前看他表现：39.05%（2,529票） 3. 不交易，留下来当作基石：7.71%（499票） 4. 等到球季後再说：5.06%（328票） --

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