国际新秀排第四,前三山本、李政厚、千贺 Name ETA Ht Wt FV Risk Roki Sasaki SP NPB 2026 20.3 6'3 203 R/R 45+ High 速球 滑球 控球 机制(没指叉) 65/65 40/45 30/45 plus Full Report(以下大概翻译) Sasaki cemented a legacy of his own while he was in high school. There was a stretch when he was asked to throw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including all of a 12-inning complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer. 朗希高中时就是传说,他曾在8天之间投接近500球,其中一场他12局完投胜然後打出致胜两 分炮 He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB draft and had much more arm strength than the typical top-of-the-class arm over there, touching 101 and sitting around 97. Sasaki amassed a 1.98 ERA in 77 total innings across 15 starts split between the Eastern league (the minors in Japan, 5 starts) and Pacific League (their top league, 10 starts). Remember that we're talking about someone who was 19 at the time (Sasaki turned 20 in November). 19年NPB一指,他拥有比日本顶级选秀大物更好的刚腕,均速落在97mph,最快能摸到101, 年仅19岁的他在去年两个一二军合记15场先发77局仅有1.98防御率 He mostly sat 93-98 with his fastball in 2021, and already has a swing-and-miss splitter that has a ridiculous amount of movement considering it averages 87 mph. Sasaki's slider is also very hard, typically 86-88, but he doesn't finish it as consistently as his splitter. If he ever learns to locate the slider consistently, then Sasaki could be a dominant big league starter. 去年他的速球落在93-98,此外他还有一颗能制造挥空、均速87mph、位移很夸张的指叉, 他的滑球也很快,86-88,但不如指叉稳定,如果他能够将滑球控的更稳定,他能成为很好 的大联盟投手 His delivery comes at a slower pace (longer arm actions run counter to the way pitchers are being developed more often in the U.S.), and the track record for pitchers who throw as hard as Sasaki does, when they're as young as Sasaki was, adds risk to his profile. But this kid has also performed in one of the world's top leagues as a teenager and has premium stuff. 他的投球机制节奏较慢(相较於美国的投手有更长的arm actions),此外像朗希这种年轻时 就丢这麽快的投手,其实有着比较不好的track record,风险会比较高。 不过不可否认朗希在很年轻的时候就在NPB有一定水准的表现并展现了顶尖的stuff Were he a college arm, he probably wouldn't be a 1-1 favorite (Casey Mize also had a split-driven mix but better breaking stuff and command than Sasaki) but rather is more like a typical top three or five pick. 如果朗希是美国大学投手,他应该不会是状元郎的热门人选(18年的状元Casey Mize有一样 指叉为主的武器库,但他的其他变化球跟控球比朗希好),但会是前三或前五顺位的候选人 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 心得 以FanGraphs来说,要FV50以上才会进入百大名单,意思就是FV45+的朗希,季前在FG的评价是 百大边缘 但如果把朗希放到选秀里,他会是2022选秀中最年轻的大学生之一,而且已经打过2A等级的 联盟(一般来说大学生最快也是隔年才会上2A),如果FG对他的评估有前三或前五顺位,这个 顺位中选的基本上都保底百大 虽然朗希在日职的K:BB相当不错,消除了一些质疑的声音,但像FG的主笔Longenhagen不太喜 欢他的投球机制,导致他在控球的评价(30/45)上偏低 总结,现阶段的朗希在美国那边的评估很有机会进入百大,如果他今年能维持下去,并且持续 展示他的滑球跟控球(我就当他指叉已经是plus等级),相信季末的球探报告会很不一样 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 123.194.158.197 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Baseball/M.1649658275.A.D33.html 我是觉得超不了BWJ、Adley跟J-Rod,其他不好说,不过前面几个应该都会毕业光 美国人不喜欢他机制 山本FV55,机制++ 可惜的是他还有一阵子才可能挑战美国... 50已经很好了XD 本来就是这样,我个人是觉得帅、控得进去就好 李政厚的hit tool预测给到70,这是很恐怖的分数 对我们来说可能是外野长枪跟游击炮的区别,但对他们球探来说可能都是平均或以上的球员 https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players 我也不喜欢那种抬腿XD hit tool是野手最重要的tool,能拿到70分的野手,FV不可能太烂 FG的榜单偏好其实也是蛮重的XD 他game power预测比我大村上好还蛮扯的 ※ 编辑: fountainNess (123.194.158.197 台湾), 04/11/2022 15:01:35