史蒂芬霍金在此文中说明，拉普拉斯的决定论观点是不符合量子力学与广义相对论的。 我先用google语言选项翻译了这个连结，我自己再逐句修改翻译。 我偏好尽量维持原句的语序以方便中英对照阅读，我会加字在[]括号中以便利通顺理解。 must have seemed..表示对过去的推测，简略翻译成＂似乎＂。 我无法完成改正翻译，改正的终点用----表示。 http://www.hawking.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id= 64&Itemid=66 This lecture is about whether we can predict the future, or whether it is arbitrary and random. 这个讲座是关於我们是否能预测未来，抑或是无常的和随机的。 In ancient times, the world must have seemed pretty arbitrary. 在古代，世界 看似相当地无常。 Disasters such as floods or diseases must have seemed to happen without warning, or apparent reason. 灾害，如洪水或疾病，似乎无任何警告 地或明显的理由地发生了。 Primitive people attributed such natural phenomena, to a pantheon of gods and goddesses, who behaved in a capricious and whimsical way.原始人将这种自然现象归因於在万神殿的众神和众女神，表现得反覆无常和异想天开 。 There was no way to predict what they would do, and the only hope was to win favour by gifts or actions. 没有办法可以预测他们会做的事，唯一的希望是以礼物与 行动赢得[众神]的喜悦。 Many people still partially subscribe to this belief, and try to make a pact with fortune. 许多人仍偏剖地赞同这一信念，并努力与命运达成协议。 They offer to do certain things, if only they can get an A-grade for a course, or pass their driving test. 他们愿意做 某些事情，只要他们能在某课程得到A的成绩，或通过他们的驾照考试。 Gradually however, people must have noticed certain regularities in the behaviour of nature. 然而逐渐地，人们发现了自然界行为的规律。 These regularities were most obvious, in the motion of the heavenly bodies across the sky. 这些规律是最明显的就是在跨越天空的天体运动。 So astronomy was the first science to be developed. 因此，天文学是第一个被发展的科学。 It was put on a firm mathematical basis by Newton, more than 300 years ago, and we still use his theory of gravity to predict the motion of almost all celestial bodies. 这 300多年以前就由牛顿把[天文学]建立在坚实的数学基础上，我们[现在]仍然使用他的 引力理论来预测几乎所有天体的运动。 Following the example of astronomy, it was found that other natural phenomena also obeyed definite scientific laws. 依循着 天文学的例子，其他自然现象也被发现遵循着明确的科学定露。 This led to the idea of scientific determinism, which seems first to have been publicly expressed by the French scientist, Laplace. 这导致了科学决定论的思想，似乎已经第一次地由公开 地由法国科学家拉普拉斯所发表。 I thought I would like to quote you Laplace's actual words, so I asked a friend to track them down. 我想我喜欢引用，你，拉普 拉斯的真正的话语，所以我问一个朋友来追踪他们[这些话]。 They are in French of course, not that I expect that would be any problem with this audience. 他们 [这些话]当然是法文，我并不期待这群观众会对此[这些话是法文]有所疑问。 But the trouble is, Laplace was rather like Prewst, in that he wrote sentences of inordinate length and complexity. 但麻烦的是，拉普拉斯很像Prewst ，他以超过 正常程度的长度与复杂方式来写下句子。 So I have decided to para-phrase the quotation. 所以我决定以同义语来表达这引句。 In effect what he said was, that if at one time, we knew the positions and speeds of all the particles in the universe, then we could calculate their behaviour at any other time, in the past or future. 他所说的话等效於，如果在某一时间，我们知道所有的粒子在宇宙中的 位置与速度，那麽我们可以计算出他们在其他任何时间的行为[运动学的细节]，不论在 过去或将来[都是可行的]。 There is a probably apocryphal story, that when Laplace was asked by Napoleon, how God fitted into this system, he replied, 'Sire, I have not needed that hypothesis.' 有一个或许未经证实的故事，当拿破仑问 拉普拉斯，上帝如何安身於此系统，他回答说， '陛下，我不需要这个假设。 I don't think that Laplace was claiming that God didn't exist. 我不认为拉普拉斯声称， 上帝并不存在。 It is just that He doesn't intervene, to break the laws of Science. 只是祂并不干预以破坏科学定律。 That must be the position of every scientist. 这应该是每一个科学家的立场。 A scientific law, is not a scientific law, if it only holds when some supernatural being, decides to let things run, and not intervene. 一个科学定律，如果只在某个超自然存在者，决定让事情运作而不 干预时才成立，这个[科学定律]就不成立了。 The idea that the state of the universe at one time determines the state at all other times, has been a central tenet of science, ever since Laplace's time. ＂某时候的宇宙状态，决定了所有其他时间状态的[宇宙状态]＂的想法，已变成了 一个科学的核心信条，自从拉普拉斯时代就已经[是如此了]。 It implies that we can predict the future, in principle at least. 这意味着，我们可以预测未来，至少原则 上[是可以的]。 In practice, however, our ability to predict the future is severely limited by the complexity of the equations, and the fact that they often have a property called chaos. 然而，实际上，我们预测未来的能力是严重地 被众方程式的复杂性，以及他们通常被称为＂混沌＂的特质所限制。 As those who have seen Jurassic Park will know, this means a tiny disturbance in one place, can cause a major change in another. 看过[电影]侏罗纪公园的人都知道，这意味着在某 处的微小扰动，可以导致另外[一处]的重大改变。 A butterfly flapping its wings can cause rain in Central Park, New York. 蝴蝶拍打翅膀可能会导致纽约的中央公园下雨 。 The trouble is, it is not repeatable. 麻烦的是，它[混沌]不是可重复的。 The next time the butterfly flaps its wings, a host of other things will be different, which will also influence the weather. 下一次的蝴蝶瓣翅膀时，许多其 他事情的主角会有所不同，这也将影响天气。 That is why weather forecasts are so unreliable. 这就是为什麽气象预报是如此不可靠的。 Despite these practical difficulties, scientific determinism, remained the official dogma throughout the 19th century. 尽管有这些实际困难，科学决定论，仍 然是历经整个19世纪的官方教条。 However, in the 20th century, there have been two developments that show that Laplace's vision, of a complete prediction of the future, can not be realised. 然而，在20世纪，有两个发展，显示拉普拉斯完整 预测未来的理想，不能得以实现。 The first of these developments was what is called, quantum mechanics. 众多发展之一的第一项，就是所谓的＂量子力学＂。 This was first put forward in 1900, by the German physicist, Max Planck, as an ad hoc hypothesis, to solve an outstanding paradox. 这是第一次提出了在1900年，由 德国物理学家马克斯普朗克，作为一个特设的假设，以解决重大的矛盾。 According to the classical 19th century ideas, dating back to Laplace, a hot body, like a piece of red hot metal, should give off radiation. 根据19世纪的古典思想，可以 追溯到拉普拉斯，一个[带有]热的物体，如同一片红热的金属，应当发出辐射。 It would lose energy in radio waves, infra red, visible light, ultra violet, x-rays, and gamma rays, all at the same rate. 它会失去能量，[化为]无线电波， 红外线，可见光，紫外线， X射线和伽玛射线，全部[波段]的[辐射]都同样的产率[发出] 。 Not only would this mean that we would all die of skin cancer, but also everything in the universe would be at the same temperature, which clearly it isn't. 这不仅意味着我们全都应该死於皮肤癌，而且全宇宙都还在相同温度下，显然 事实并非如此。 However, Planck showed one could avoid this disaster, if one gave up the idea that the amount of radiation could have just any value, and said instead that radiation came only in packets or quanta of a certain size. 然而，普朗克发现一个能够避免这场灾难[的因素]，如果某人放弃了＂辐射的量可以有 '任何量值'的想法，相反地辐射只能以小包裹，或是特定量值的量子产生。 It is a bit like saying that you can't buy sugar loose in the supermarket, but only in kilogram bags. 这是一个有点像说，你在超市不可以买松散[没有包装]的砂糖，只能[买] 以公斤[为单位的]袋子[的砂糖]。 The energy in the packets or quanta, is higher for ultra violet and x-rays, than for infra red or visible light. 在小包裹或是 量子中的能量，是比紫外线和X射线，比红外线或可见光[的能量]更高的。 This means that unless a body is very hot, like the Sun, it will not have enough energy, to give off even a single quantum of ultra violet or x-rays. 这意味着，除非物体 像太阳[那样]非常热，它不会有足够的能源，发出甚至单一的量子的紫外线或X射线。 That is why we don't get sunburn from a cup of coffee. 这就是为什麽我们 不会被一杯咖啡晒伤。 Planck regarded the idea of quanta, as just a mathematical trick, and not as having any physical reality, whatever that might mean. 普朗克把量子概念当作只是 一种数学技巧，而不具有任何物理的事实，无论它[量子概念]可能指什麽。 However, physicists began to find other behaviour, that could be explained only in terms of quantities having discrete, or quantised values, rather than continuously variable ones. 然而，物理学家开始发现其他的行为只能用离散或量子化数值的量值才 可以被解释，而不能用连续数值[来理解]。 For example, it was found that elementary particles behaved rather like little tops, spinning about an axis. 例如，有人发现，基本粒子的行为，像绕着一个轴旋转的陀螺。 But the amount of spin couldn't have just any value. 但自旋的量值不能是任意数值。 It had to be some multiple of a basic unit. 它必须是一个基本单位的整数倍。 Because this unit is very small, one does not notice that a normal top really slows down in a rapid sequence of discrete steps, rather than as a continuous process. 由於这 个单位是非常小的，一个人无法发现一个普通的陀螺实际上以离散步骤的序列急速慢下来 ，而不是以连续过程慢下来。 But for tops as small as atoms, the discrete nature of spin is very important. 但是，很小的陀螺如原子，离散的自旋性质是非常重要 的。 It was some time before people realised the implications of this quantum behaviour for determinism. 在人类理解到量子行为具有对於决定论的隐含意义以前， 花了好些时间。 It was not until 1926, that Werner Heisenberg, another German physicist, pointed out that you couldn't measure both the position, and the speed, of a particle exactly. 直到1926年，沃纳海森堡，另一位德国物理学家指出， 你不能同时准确地测量粒子的位置与速度。 To see where a particle is, one has to shine light on it. 要看到哪里有粒子，某人必须[在这粒子上]照光。 But by Planck's work, one can't use an arbitrarily small amount of light. 但是，依照普朗克的 着作，不能任意使用少量的光。 One has to use at least one quantum. 一个人必须 至少使用一种量子。 This will disturb the particle, and change its speed in a way that can't be predicted. 这将扰乱粒子，并改变其速度的方式，无法预测。 To measure the position of the particle accurately, you will have to use light of short wave length, like ultra violet, x-rays, or gamma rays. 为了准确地测量 粒子的位置，你将不得不使用短波长的光，如紫外线， X射线或伽玛射线。 But again, by Planck's work, quanta of these forms of light have higher energies than those of visible light. 但是，再度根据普朗克的作品，这些形式的光的量子具有 比可见光更高的能量。 So they will disturb the speed of the particle more. 因此，他们会更多地扰动粒子的速度。 It is a no win situation: the more accurately you try to measure the position of the particle, the less accurately you can know the speed, and vice versa. 这是一个没有[全盘]胜利的局面：更准确 地尝试测量的颗粒的位置，那麽你就更不准确地知道速度，反之亦然。 This is summed up in the Uncertainty Principle that Heisenberg formulated; the uncertainty in the position of a particle, times the uncertainty in its speed, is always greater than a quantity called Planck's constant, divided by the mass of the particle. 这就总结於海森堡拟定的测不准原理，粒子的不确定度乘以速度的不确定杜 永远大於被称为普朗克常数的数值除以粒子的质量。 Laplace's vision, of scientific determinism, involved knowing the positions and speeds of the particles in the universe, at one instant of time. 拉普拉斯 的科学决定论的理想，涉及知道宇宙中粒子的位置和速度，在一个瞬间的时间。 So it was seriously undermined by Heisenberg's Uncertainty principle. 因此，它 [科学决定论]严重地被海森堡的测不准原理破坏了。 How could one predict the future , when one could not measure accurately both the positions, and the speeds, of particles at the present time? 当一个人不能准确地同时测量现在这个时刻的粒子的 位置和速度，怎麽能预测未来呢？ No matter how powerful a computer you have, if you put lousy data in, you will get lousy predictions out. 无论你有多麽强大的 计算机，如果你输入糟糕的数据，你就会得到糟糕的预测了。 Einstein was very unhappy about this apparent randomness in nature. 爱因斯坦 对这种自然界明显的随机性的性质十分不满。 His views were summed up in his famous phrase, 'God does not play dice'. 他的一句名言概括了他的观点：＂上帝不掷骰子。 ＂ He seemed to have felt that the uncertainty was only provisional: but that there was an underlying reality, in which particles would have well defined positions and speeds, and would evolve according to deterministic laws, in the spirit of Laplace. 他似乎认为，不确定性只是临时性的：但有一个基本 事实：这种粒子有明确的位置和速度，并根据决定论的定律来演变精神，依照拉普拉斯 的精神。 This reality might be known to God, but the quantum nature of light would prevent us seeing it, except through a glass darkly. 这一现实可能会被上帝 知晓，但量子性质的光会妨碍我们看到它，除非黑暗地通过一片玻璃[事实上不可能的]。 Einstein's view was what would now be called, a hidden variable theory. 爱因斯 坦的看法现在被称为＂隐藏变量＂理论。 Hidden variable theories might seem to be the most obvious way to incorporate the Uncertainty Principle into physics. 隐藏变量理论似乎是最明显的办法，把测不准原理并入物理学。 They form the basis of the mental picture of the universe, held by many scientists, and almost all philosophers of science. 它们形成了宇宙的心智的图像，许多科学家与 几乎所有的科学哲学家抱持[此一观点]。 But these hidden variable theories are wrong. 但是，这些隐藏的变量理论是错误的。 The British physicist, John Bell, who died recently, devised an experimental test that would distinguish hidden variable theories. 最近去世的英国物理学家约翰贝尔，设计了一个实验性测试，来 区分隐藏变量理论。 When the experiment was carried out carefully, the results were inconsistent with hidden variables. 此实验地仔细进行，结果并不符合隐藏变 量。 Thus it seems that even God is bound by the Uncertainty Principle, and can not know both the position, and the speed, of a particle. 因此看来，即使是 上帝也被不确定性原理约束，也不能同时知道一个粒子的位置与速度。 So God does play dice with the universe. 因此，上帝跟这个宇宙玩掷骰子的游戏。 All the evidence points to him being an inveterate gambler, who throws the dice on every possible occasion. 所有的证据表明祂[上帝]是一个根深蒂固的赌徒，在每一个可能 情境下掷骰子。 Other scientists were much more ready than Einstein to modify the classical 19th century view of determinism. 其他科学家比爱因斯坦更加准备好，要修改19世纪 古典的决定论(宿命论)观点。 A new theory, called quantum mechanics, was put forward by Heisenberg, the Austrian, Erwin Schroedinger, and the British physicist, Paul Dirac. 一种新的理论，被称为量子力学，由海森堡与奥地利人埃尔温 水丁格，英国物理学家保罗狄拉克所提出。 Dirac was my predecessor but one, as the Lucasian Professor in Cambridge. 狄拉克是除了我[笔者霍金]以外的唯一的前任 剑桥卢卡斯教授。 Although quantum mechanics has been around for nearly 70 years, it is still not generally understood or appreciated, even by those that use it to do calculations. 尽管量子力学已经存在将近70年，但它仍然不被普遍的 理解或赞赏，即使是那些使用它做计算的人。 Yet it should concern us all, because it is a completely different picture of the physical universe, and of reality itself. 然而，它应该与我们所有人有关联，因为它是一个完全不同的的宇宙物理图像 以及现实本身[的图像]。 In quantum mechanics, particles don't have well defined positions and speeds. 在量子力学中，粒子没有定义良好的的位置和速度。 Instead, they are represented by what is called a wave function. 相反，他们由所谓的 波函数来呈现。 This is a number at each point of space. 这(波函数)是空间中每一 点都有的数值。 The size of the wave function gives the probability that the particle will be found in that position. 波函数的大小给定此粒子将在此位置被发现 的机率。 The rate, at which the wave function varies from point to point, gives the speed of the particle. 这波函数由此位置到另一位置的变化率，给定了此粒子的 速度。 One can have a wave function that is very strongly peaked in a small region.某状况下，可以有一个在某小区域中极强烈峰值的波函数。 This will mean that the uncertainty in the position is small. 这将意味着位置的不确定性是小的。 But the wave function will vary very rapidly near the peak, up on one side, and down on the other. 但是，波函数会在[波函数的]高峰附近变化得很快，在一边上升， 在另一边下降。 Thus the uncertainty in the speed will be large. 因此速度的 不确定性会很大。 Similarly, one can have wave functions where the uncertainty in the speed is small, but the uncertainty in the position is large. 同样， 波函数的速度不确定性可以很小，但位置不确定性很大。 The wave function contains all that one can know of the particle, both its position, and its speed. 波函数包含了所有能够从粒子知道的[资讯]，它的位置，与 它的速度。 If you know the wave function at one time, then its values at other times are determined by what is called the Schroedinger equation. 如果你知道在 某一时间的波函数，然後它的数值在其他时候是由所谓的水丁格方程式所决定。 Thus one still has a kind of determinism, but it is not the sort that Laplace envisaged. 因此仍然有某一种决定论，但它不是拉普拉斯设想的那种。 Instead of being able to predict the positions and speeds of particles, all we can predict is the wave function. 我们所有可以预测的，是波函数，而不是粒子的位置与速度。 This means that we can predict just half what we could, according to the classical 19th century view. 这意味着，我们只可以预测＂按照19世纪的古典看法[所定义的]＂的一半 。 Although quantum mechanics leads to uncertainty, when we try to predict both the position and the speed, it still allows us to predict, with certainty, one combination of position and speed. 虽然量子力学导致＂当我们试图同时预测的 位置和速度＂时的不确定性，但它仍然使我们能够很确定地预测，一种位置和速度的结 合。 However, even this degree of certainty, seems to be threatened by more recent developments. 然而，即使这种程度的确定性，似乎是受到最近的事态发展。 The problem arises because gravity can warp space-time so much, that there can be regions that we don't observe. 这个问题是因为重力可以弯曲的时空这麽多， 而仍有区域是我们没有观察到的。 Interestingly enough, Laplace himself wrote a paper in 1799 on how some stars could have a gravitational field so strong that light could not escape, but would be dragged back onto the star. 有趣的是，拉普拉斯本人在1799年写了一份论 文，说明一些星体可能有如此强大的引力场，以致於光无法逃脱，将被拖入此星体。 He even calculated that a star of the same density as the Sun, but two hundred and fifty times the size, would have this property. 他甚至计算出 有太阳250倍尺寸的星体，将具有此性质。 But although Laplace may not have realised it, the same idea had been put forward 16 years earlier by a Cambridge man, John Mitchell, in a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 但是，尽管拉普拉斯可能没有意识到它，同样的想法在16年前由剑桥大学 的成员，约翰米切尔，在一个哲学学报皇家学会的论文中提出了。 Both Mitchell and Laplace thought of light as consisting of particles, rather like cannon balls, that could be slowed down by gravity, and made to fall back on the star. 这米切尔和 拉普拉斯认为光是由的粒子组成的(而不是像炮弹)可以被引力减缓，并掉落回此星体。 But a famous experiment, carried out by two Americans, Michelson and Morley in 1887, showed that light always travelled at a speed of one hundred and eighty six thousand miles a second, no matter where it came from. 但是，一个着 名的实验，由2名美国人，迈克尔逊和莫雷於1887年进行的，显示，光总是以秒速三十万 公里行进，不管它是从哪里来的。 How then could gravity slow down light, and make it fall back. 那麽，重力怎麽可能减慢光子，并使之回落。 This was impossible, according to the then accepted ideas of space and time. 根据当时所接受的空间和时间概念，这是不可能的。 But in 1915, Einstein put forward his revolutionary General Theory of Relativity. 但是，在1915年，爱因斯 坦提出他的革命性的广义相对论。 In this, space and time were no longer separate and independent entities. 在这方面，空间和时间不再是单独的和独立的实 体。 Instead, they were just different directions in a single object called space-time. 相反，他们只是在一个单一的对象，所谓的时空中，的不同面向而已。 This space-time was not flat, but was warped and curved by the matter and energy in it. 这时空并不平坦，而是被其中的物质与能量所变形与扭曲。 In order to understand this, considered a sheet of rubber, with a weight placed on it, to represent a star. 为了了解这一点，考虑一片橡胶，与其上的重量放在，以代表星体。 The weight will form a depression in the rubber, and will cause the sheet near the star to be curved, rather than flat. 重量将造成橡胶的扭曲，将导致星体附近的 片段是弯曲的，而不是平坦的。 If one now rolls marbles on the rubber sheet, their paths will be curved, rather than being straight lines. 如果某人现在在 胶板上推出弹珠，其路径将弯曲的，而不是直线。 In 1919, a British expedition to West Africa, looked at light from distant stars, that passed near the Sun during an eclipse. 1919年，一名英国探险西非，看着来自遥远的恒星的光在月食时通过 太阳附近。 They found that the images of the stars were shifted slightly from their normal positions. 他们发现，在星体的影像变动略高於其正常位置。 This indicated that the paths of the light from the stars had been bent by the curved space-time near the Sun. 这表明来自星体的光的路径，已经被太阳附近的时空 弯曲了。 General Relativity was confirmed. 广义相对论得到了确认。 Consider now placing heavier and heavier, and more and more concentrated weights on the rubber sheet. 现在考虑把越来越重且集中的重量放在胶板上。 They will depress the sheet more and more. 他们将越来越压低胶板。 Eventually, at a critical weight and size, they will make a bottomless hole in the sheet, which particles can fall into, but nothing can get out of. 最後，在一个关键的 重量和大小，他们将造成胶板中有一个无底的洞，粒子可以落入，但没有任何东西可以 从中摆脱。 What happens in space-time according to General Relativity is rather similar. 根据广义相对论，所发生在时空的事情，是相当类似的。 A star will curve and distort the space-time near it, more and more, the more massive and more compact the star is. 星体将弯曲且扭转附近的时空，越来越强地，星体变得更重且 紧凑。 If a massive star, which has burnt up its nuclear fuel, cools and shrinks below a critical size, it will quite literally make a bottomless hole in space-time, that light can't get out of. 如果一个很重的星体，烧毁尽了核燃料， 在关键尺寸冷却和收缩，就会字面地变成一个时空中的无底洞，光无法从中摆脱。 Such objects were given the name Black Holes, by the American physicist John Wheeler , who was one of the first to recognise their importance, and the problems they pose. 这些物体被定名为黑洞，由美国物理学家约翰惠勒第一个认可其重要性，以及它们 所引起的问题。 The name caught on quickly. 这名称迅速地流行了。 To Americans, it suggested something dark and mysterious, while to the British, there was the added resonance of the Black Hole of Calcutta. 对美国人而言，它表示黑暗和神秘 的事物，而英国人而言，还有额外的＂加尔各答共振黑洞＂。 But the French, being French, saw a more risque meaning.但是对作为法国人的法国人而言，他们看到一个 更淫秽的意义。 For years, they resisted the name, trou noir, claiming it was obscene. 多年来，他们抵制"trou noir"[黑洞的法文]的名称，声称这是可憎的。 But that was a bit like trying to stand against le weekend, and other franglais. 但是，这有点像试图，抵制"le weekend"[中的英文字weekend]，和其他[来自非法语的] 法文字一样。 In the end, they had to give in. Who can resist a name that is such a winner? 最後，他们不得不退让。谁可以抗拒如此作为赢家的一个名称？ We now have observations that point to black holes in a number of objects, from binary star systems, to the centre of galaxies. 我们现在观察到，一些指向 黑洞的物体，来自双星系统至於该中心的星系。 So it is now generally accepted that black holes exist. 所以，现在人们普遍认为黑洞存在。 But, apart from their potential for science fiction, what is their significance for determinism. 但是，除了它们作为科幻小说的潜力，他们对决定论有什麽重大的意义。 The answer lies in a bumper sticker that I used to have on the door of my office: Black Holes are Out of Sight. 答案就在於在一个我曾经贴在我的办公室门上 的小标语：黑洞的无法被看见的。 Not only do the particles and unlucky astronauts that fall into a black hole, never come out again, but also the information that they carry, is lost forever, at least from our region of the universe. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 不仅粒子和宇航员的不幸落入一个黑洞，永远不会再出来，而且还的信息，他们携带，而且永远失去了，至少 从我们区域的宇宙。 You can throw television sets, diamond rings, or even your worst enemies into a black hole, and all the black hole will remember, is the total mass, and the state of rotation. 你可以扔电视机，钻石戒指，甚至你最坏的 敌人变成了一个黑洞，所有的黑洞会记得，是总质量，国家的轮换。 John Wheeler called this, 'A Black Hole Has No Hair.' 约翰惠勒这种现象称之为'黑洞没有头发。 To the French, this just confirmed their suspicions. 法国，这只是证实他们的怀 疑。 As long as it was thought that black holes would continue to exist forever, this loss of information didn't seem to matter too much. 只要人们认为黑洞将继 续存在永远，这一损失的信息似乎并没有太多问题。 One could say that the information still existed inside the black hole. 人们可以说，信息内部仍然存在 着黑洞。 It is just that one can't tell what it is, from the outside. 这只是 一个不能告诉是什麽，从外面。 However, the situation changed, when I discovered that black holes aren't completely black. 然而，形势的变化，当我发 现，黑洞并不完全黑色。 Quantum mechanics causes them to send out particles and radiation at a steady rate. 量子力学使它们发出粒子和辐射以稳定的速度。 This result came as a total surprise to me, and everyone else. 这一结果是一个 总让我吃惊，和其他人。 But with hindsight, it should have been obvious. 但是回 过头来看，本来应该是很明显。 What we think of as empty space is not really empty, but it is filled with pairs of particles and anti particles. 我们认为是 空不是真的空，但它是充满了对粒子和反粒子。 These appear together at some point of space and time, move apart, and then come together and annihilate each other. 这些一起出现在某一时刻的空间和时间，移动分离，然後走到一起，歼灭对 方。 These particles and anti particles occur because a field, such as the fields that carry light and gravity, can't be exactly zero. 这些粒子和反粒子的 发生原因，是因为外地，如领域，携带轻和严重性，不能完全为零。 That would mean that the value of the field, would have both an exact position (at zero), and an exact speed or rate of change (also zero). 这将意味着价值的领域，将有一个确 切位置（零） ，以及确切的速度或变化率（也零） 。 This would be against the Uncertainty Principle, just as a particle can't have both an exact position, and an exact speed. 这将是对不确定性原理，正如粒子不能既是一个确切位置，并准确 速度。 So all fields must have what are called, vacuum fluctuations. 因此，各 个领域必须有所谓，真空波动。 Because of the quantum behaviour of nature, one can interpret these vacuum fluctuations, in terms of particles and anti particles, as I have described. 由於量子行为的性质，人们可以解释这些真空波动， 从粒子和反粒子，正如我所描述的。 These pairs of particles occur for all varieties of elementary particles. 对这 些粒子发生的所有品种的基本粒子。 They are called virtual particles, because they occur even in the vacuum, and they can't be directly measured by particle detectors. 他们被称为虚拟粒子，因为他们甚至在出现的真空，他们不能直接 衡量的粒子探测器。 However, the indirect effects of virtual particles, or vacuum fluctuations, have been observed in a number of experiments, and their existence confirmed. 但是，间接影响的虚拟粒子，或真空波动，已经观察到了一些实 验，证实其存在。 If there is a black hole around, one member of a particle anti particle pair may fall into the hole, leaving the other member without a partner, with which to annihilate. 如果有一个黑洞附近，一名粒子反粒子对可能落入黑洞，让其他 成员没有一个合作夥伴，与它消灭。 The forsaken particle may fall into the hole as well, but it may also escape to a large distance from the hole, where it will become a real particle, that can be measured by a particle detector. 被遗 弃的粒子可能落入黑洞以及，但也可能逃到一个大距离的洞，在那里将成为一个真正的粒 子，可衡量的粒子探测器。 To someone a long way from the black hole, it will appear to have been emitted by the hole. 某人很长的路要走黑洞，它将似乎已经发 出了该洞。 This explanation of how black holes ain't so black, makes it clear that the emission will depend on the size of the black hole, and the rate at which it is rotating. 这如何解释黑洞并非如此黑色，清楚地表明，排放量将取决於大小的黑洞 ，而且利率在它旋转。 But because black holes have no hair, in Wheeler's phrase, the radiation will be otherwise independent of what went into the hole. 但是，由於黑洞没有头发，在惠勒的短语，将辐射无关的其他什麽进入了该洞。 It doesn't matter whether you throw television sets, diamond rings, or your worst enemies, into a black hole. 不管你扔电视机，钻石戒指，或者你最坏的敌人， 成为一个黑洞。 What comes back out will be the same. 什麽回来了是相同的。 So what has all this to do with determinism, which is what this lecture is supposed to be about. 那麽，这一切已经跟决定，这是这个讲座是应该的。 What it shows is that there are many initial states, containing television sets, diamond rings, and even people, that evolve to the same final state, at least outside the black hole. 它表明，有许多初始状态，其中载有电视机，钻石戒指，甚至 人民，不断改进，以相同的最终状态，至少在外面的黑洞。 But in Laplace's picture of determinism, there was a one to one correspondence between initial states, and final states. 但是，在拉普拉斯的图片的决定，有一个12时59对应关系初始状态， 最终状态。 If you knew the state of the universe at some time in the past, you could predict it in the future. 如果你知道国家的宇宙在一段时间过去，你可以 预测，在未来。 Similarly, if you knew it in the future, you could calculate what it must have been in the past. 同样地，如果您知道它在将来，你可以计算出它 必须是在过去。 The advent of quantum theory in the 1920s reduced the amount one could predict by half, but it still left a one to one correspondence between the states of the universe at different times. 的到来量子理论在20世纪 20年代减少了一个可以预测的一半，但仍留下了12点五十九分之间的对应状态的宇宙在不 同的时间。 If one knew the wave function at one time, one could calculate it at any other time. 如果有人知道波函数在同一时间，可以计算出它在其他任何时间。 With black holes, however, the situation is rather different. 随着黑洞，然而， 情况颇为不同。 One will end up with the same state outside the hole, whatever one threw in, provided it has the same mass. 一位最终将同美国以外的洞，无论是 扔在，只要它具有相同的质量。 Thus there is not a one to one correspondence between the initial state, and the final state outside the black hole. 因此， 不存在12时59分之间的对应初始状态，最终状态之外的黑洞。 There will be a one to one correspondence between the initial state, and the final state both outside, and inside, the black hole. 将有十二时59分之间的对应初始状态，最终状 态内外，以及内部的黑洞。 But the important point is that the emission of particles, and radiation by the black hole, will cause the hole to lose mass, and get smaller. 但是，重要的一点是，排放的颗粒，并辐射的黑洞，将导致洞失去群 众，并获得较小。 Eventually, it seems the black hole will get down to zero mass, and will disappear altogether. 最後，似乎黑洞会下降到零的质量，并会完全 消失。 What then will happen to all the objects that fell into the hole, and all the people that either jumped in, or were pushed? 那麽会发生的所有物体落入 黑洞，所有的人，要么涨，或被推？ They can't come out again, because there isn't enough mass or energy left in the black hole, to send them out again. 他 们不能再出来，因为没有足够的质量或能量留在黑洞，送他们出来。 They may pass into another universe, but that is not something that will make any difference, to those of us prudent enough not to jump into a black hole. 他们 可以进入另一个宇宙，但并不是将任何区别，对我们这些没有足够的谨慎跳入黑洞。 Even the information, about what fell into the hole, could not come out again when the hole finally disappears. 即使是信息，如何落入黑洞，无法再出来时 ，黑洞最终消失。 Information can not be carried free, as those of you with phone bills will know. 信息不能进行自由，因为这些你的电话帐单会知道。 Information requires energy to carry it, and there won't be enough energy left when the black hole disappears. 能源信息需要携带它，就不会有足够的能量时 留下的黑洞消失了。 What all this means is, that information will be lost from our region of the universe, when black holes are formed, and then evaporate. 什麽所有这意味着， 该信息将丢失从我们区域的宇宙时，黑洞的形成，然後消失。 This loss of information will mean that we can predict even less than we thought, on the basis of quantum theory. 这项损失的信息将意味着我们可以预测甚至更少比我们想像 的基础上，量子理论。 In quantum theory, one may not be able to predict with certainty, both the position, and the speed of a particle. 在量子理论，一个可 能无法预测的确定性，双方的立场和速度的粒子。 But there is still one combination of position and speed that can be predicted. 但仍然有一个组合的位 置和速度，可预测。 In the case of a black hole, this definite prediction involves both members of a particle pair. 如果一个黑洞，这一明确的预测既涉及成 员的粒子对。 But we can measure only the particle that comes out. 但是，我们不 能只衡量微粒出来。 There's no way even in principle that we can measure the particle that falls into the hole. 有没有办法即使在原则上，我们可以衡量微粒落 入洞。 So, for all we can tell, it could be in any state. 所以，我们都可以告诉 ，也可以在任何状态。 This means we can not make any definite prediction, about the particle that escapes from the hole. 这意味着我们不能作出任何明确的 预测，对粒子的逃离了该洞。 We can calculate the probability that the particle has this or that position, or speed. 我们可以计算概率的粒子有这样或那样的立场 ，或速度。 But there's no combination of the position and speed of just one particle that we can definitely predict, because the speed and position will depend on the other particle, which we don't observe. 但目前还没有组合的位置和 速度的粒子只有一个，我们一定能够预测，由於速度和立场将取决於其他粒子，我们不遵 守。 Thus it seems Einstein was doubly wrong when he said, God does not play dice. 因此，它似乎爱因斯坦是双重错误时，他说，上帝不掷骰子发挥。 Not only does God definitely play dice, but He sometimes confuses us by throwing them where they can't be seen. 不仅上帝一定骰子，但他有时会混淆我们扔在那里他们不能 被发现。 Many scientists are like Einstein, in that they have a deep emotional attachment to determinism. 许多科学家爱因斯坦一样，因为它们有着深厚的感情来决 定。 Unlike Einstein, they have accepted the reduction in our ability to predict, that quantum theory brought about. 与爱因斯坦，他们已接受了削减我们的 能力来预测，即量子理论带来了。 But that was far enough. 但是，这远远不够。 They didn't like the further reduction, which black holes seemed to imply. 他 们不喜欢的进一步减少，其中的黑洞似乎暗示。 They have therefore claimed that information is not really lost down black holes. 因此，他们声称，信息是没有真 正失去了黑洞。 But they have not managed to find any mechanism that would return the information. 但他们还没有找到任何机制，将传回的信息。 It is just a pious hope that the universe is deterministic, in the way that Laplace thought. 这仅仅是一个虔诚的希望，宇宙是确定性，在方式，拉普拉斯思想。 I feel these scientists have not learnt the lesson of history. 我觉得这些科学家还没有 学到教训的历史。 The universe does not behave according to our pre-conceived ideas. 宇宙不行为根据我们预先设想的想法。 It continues to surprise us. 它仍然 使我们感到惊讶。 One might not think it mattered very much, if determinism broke down near black holes. 人们可能认为这不是非常重要，如果决定打破附近的黑洞。 We are almost certainly at least a few light years, from a black hole of any size. 我 -- 上月球!月球是中国人吴刚不可分割的一部分 抓嫦娥!此女意图分裂中国领土脱离中国掌握 杀玉兔!玉兔为资产阶级之玩物!日帝之玩偶! --

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