※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板 #1KPZioqJ ] 作者: kelpiejo (开啤酒) 看板: MLB 标题: [外电] 太空人得到了休士顿版本的摸二哥 时间: Sat Nov 15 01:26:04 2014 前言： 因为对捕手相关的技术和数据比较有兴趣，过去也曾经拙译过一些跟捕手相关的文章 其中framing算是一个蛮特别满有趣的话题 当然这只是捕手众多能力当中的一小部分，对於比赛影响程度有待考量 但是不可否认的，不只在FG这种专业一点的网站 平常转播时主播提到framing的次数越来越多 所以小弟会翻译两篇文章，随着FG的脚步来检视最近的两个小交易 让大家在休兵季节可以有点讨论 因为实在很难用中文定义，所以在此文中，framing都译为接捕 正文开始 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-get-their-jose-molina/ Sometimes, a transaction is so immediately obvious you don’t have to spend any time at all trying to work out the rationale behind it. Other times, a transaction only seems that immediately obvious, because we’re not privy to all of the relevant information. In each case, though, we get to pretend like the move in question is immediately obvious, because we can’t know what we don’t know, and on Wednesday, the Astros made a trade. They got a guy they like, and they like him because of course they like him. 有时候，一个交易可以一眼就看出来两队背後在想什麽，但有时候我们只是「好像」 知道两队在想什麽，因为我们对於相关的资讯没那麽熟。不过不管怎麽样，我们常常 得装作这些不知道在搞什麽的交易很好分析，因为不知道的那一面就是我们不可能会 知道啊。礼拜三，太空人做了个交易，他们得到了一个他们喜欢的球员，因为，呃， 他们喜欢他。 The Astros got one guy for two guys, giving up catcher Carlos Perez and pitcher Nick Tropeano. Perez might take over as the Angels’ backup, and Tropeano might manage to crack the Angels’ starting rotation. But the guy the Astros added is Hank Conger, and though Conger’s is by no means any sort of household name, you could say the Astros just got their Jose Molina. Have I mentioned lately that the Astros employ Mike Fast? Do I even need to? 太空人换走了捕手Carlos Perez和投手Nick Tropeano。Perez可能会成为天使的替补 捕手，Tropeano有机会挑战轮值。太空人得到了Hank Conger，虽然不是什麽家喻户晓 的名字，但你可以说他们得到了他们心中的Jose Molina。我提到了太空人制服组里有 一个叫Mike Fast的人吗？我需要特别提到他吗？ （译注：关於Mike Fast，在拙译有提到过，请在MLB板搜寻我ID） On the surface, it’s a C-list transaction. Few know Perez, few know Tropeano, and Conger’s never played 100 games in a season. I can’t remember the last time I watched Sportscenter, but this isn’t the kind of headline I imagine they’re likely to discuss, because it’s hardly even a headline for baseball-specific programming. Conger owns a career 84 wRC+. That comes with a .294 OBP, and he’s at 1.6 career WAR. He’s thrown out 22% of attempted base-stealers. 表面看来，这是个C咖交易。没什麽人认识太空人丢的这两个球员，Conger也从来没有 单季出场破百过。这种交易不可能被世界体育中心讨论，因为就算是棒球专门的节目也 不会拿这种交易当头条。Conger的生涯wRC+是84，上垒率两成九四，WAR 1.6，阻杀率 只有两成二。 Conger’s pretty cheap and under control through 2017, so that’s something. He joins what’s become a crowded backstop situation in Houston, with Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan, and Max Stassi. It seems pretty apparent the Astros are going to make a change between now and the start of next year, so what they have for the moment is flexibility. This move probably wasn’t about the next move. This move was probably about getting Conger, because I haven’t yet mentioned his strength. Conger合约颇便宜，球队可以控制他到2017年，这还不错。他加入了之後，太空人的捕 手阵容有点挤。这球队阵容在明年球季前势必还有一些变动，所以现在有点弹性是好的 。这个交易大概不是为了其他交易而做的，而是纯粹为了要得到Conger，让我来说说他 的强项在哪里吧。 It’s pitch-framing, naturally. Or pitch-receiving, or basic catching, or whatever you want to call it. Fast’s research brought framing into the spotlight, and we’ve heard before about how the Astros organization works on framing drills to make their own guys better. Until this week, Conger wasn’t one of their own guys, but it doesn’t get much better than him, in terms of catching the ball in a quiet and artful way. And that’s why I feel like this move is so obvious. The Astros are likely to appreciate the skill more than the Angels have. 当然就是接补啦。Mike Fast的研究让大家注意到接补，而我们也知道太空人是怎麽样在 这部分加强他们对捕手的训练。Conger这礼拜才成为太空人的一员，但是要说起把球优美 地接成好球，Conger比起太空人捕手群可是毫不逊色。这也是为什麽我认为这个交易一看 就知道太空人的想法，因为他们似乎是比天使更重视接补这个能力。 How good a receiver is Conger? We can go the more simple way, or we can go the more complicated way. The answers are the same: he’s outstanding. Let’s go to StatCorner first. In 2013, out of regular and semi-regular catchers, Conger ranked third in extra strikes per game. In 2014, he ranked first, ahead of Molina, Christian Vazquez, and Rene Rivera. No one in baseball has been better at preserving strikes; almost no one has been better at gaining additional strikes. Conger有多会接捕？不管用浅显的方式或是复杂的方式解释，答案都是，他很屌。我们先 来看StatCorner的资料，2013年里，在比较有机会上场的捕手中，Conger在「每场比赛多 接出来的好球」这个项目排第三。2014他变成第一名了，比摸小弟、红袜的Vazquez或是 教士的Rivera都还要强。没有人比他更会确保好球被判成好球，没有什麽人比他更会把坏 球接成好球。 （StatCorner连结：http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php） For the more complicated way, we turn to Baseball Prospectus. Their framing numbers are based on more intricate formulas, controlling for a great number of variables. In 2013, out of regular and semi-regular catchers, Conger ranked tied for fifth in framing runs expressed as a rate stat. He was third in extra strikes per game. In 2014, Conger ranked first in runs as a rate stat, and second in extra strikes per game. Let’s combine the last two years. Let’s set a minimum of 5,000 so-called “framing opportunities”. We’ re left with a pool of 56 catchers. Within that pool, Conger ranks second in extra strikes per game, and second in framing runs per game. The only catcher better: Jose Molina, who wasn’t better in the season that just ended. 要更复杂点来看，就看Baseball Prospectus吧。他们的接捕数据的公式更复杂，变数也 更多。2013年，在比较有机会出场的捕手里，把接补守下来的得分换算成比例，他并列 第五；2014年，平均每场接成好球的坏球这个项目，他排第一。把13和14球季加总，然 後把至少有5000个「接捕机会」的捕手抓出来，还有56个选手，这些人当中，Conger在 平均每场接成好球的坏球和平均每场接捕守下来的分数这两个项目当中，都位居第二， 只输给Jose Molina，而且Conger在2014球季表现得还比摸二哥好。 Take the BP numbers at face value, and the last two years, Conger’s framing has been worth more than 30 runs alone. People quibble with the magnitudes of these things, and people debate over how to distribute responsibility, but it makes sense that the Astros would be believers in this, just as the Rays have been and just as the Brewers obviously are. The Astros, presumably, see Conger as an elite-level framer, and though he doesn’t have too many other skills, Nelson Cruz doesn’t have too many other skills aside from clobbering dingers, and the dingers make him valuable. It doesn’t matter how a guy’s good, as long as he’s good. The Astros identified and got a good player, according to the ways they evaluate players. 根据BP的数据，Conger在过去两年的接捕能力就有三十分的价值。这种数据的重要性和 怎麽去界定这些分数的责任当然很引战，但是太空人就是信这一套，就和这几年的光芒 和酿酒人一样。合理推测，太空人把Conger视为一个优秀的接捕捕手，不管他其他能力 如何。就好像Nelson Cruz也特别擅长把球干出场外啊，他其他的能力也不怎样，但尻 全垒打让他很有价值。一个好球员是好在什麽地方，不是特别重要。太空人用他们的标 准，发现他们的千里马，然後得到了他。 Here’s something fun. BP breaks down framing data by pitching battery. Conger, last year, split time on the Angels with Chris Iannetta. There were eight guys they each caught for at least 100 plate appearances. Let’s see how they did with each catcher: 有趣的来了。BP的接捕数据可以用投手来分类。2013球季，Conger和Iannetta分担了捕 手的工作，有八个投手他们都接了100个打席以上，让我们来看看这些投手和不同的捕手 搭配时表现有什麽差别。 Pitcher Conger Conger, Iannetta Iannetta 谁胜 机会 +strike 机会 +strike Jered Weaver 856 51 1062 17 Conger Hector Santiago 798 -2 481 -15 Conger C.J. Wilson 832 26 1102 8 Conger Garrett Richards 521 15 931 -25 Conger Matt Shoemaker 461 9 656 -2 Conger Tyler Skaggs 254 3 632 -9 Conger Kevin Jepsen 233 0 323 5 Iannetta Joe Smith 262 19 330 4 Conger （表有点丑建议大家直接看原文） Of the eight, seven got better strikes zones pitching to Conger, and the one exception — Jepsen — had some pretty small sample sizes. Conger was great on his own team; Conger was great. 这八个投手当中，有七个的好球带在Conger的帮助之下看起来好一点。Jepsen是唯一的 例外，他的样本数也是最少的。只跟队友比较，Conger在接补部分更能帮助球队。 Using data from Baseball Savant, let’s look at a .gif of different 2014 strike zones. I selected three catchers: Conger, Devin Mesoraco, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Conger was a good receiver, Mesoraco was an average receiver, and Saltalamacchia was a bad receiver, at least by the measurements we have. The differences might be a little subtle, but pay attention to the edges: 用Baseball Savant的资料，可以做出这个2014球季几个不同好球带的gif图片。我选了 三个捕手，Conger、Mesoraco和Salty。Conger擅长接补，Mesoraco普普通通，Salty的 接补并不好，至少就我们的数据是这样。用图来看，这三个人的差别可能没那麽明显， 但请注意边边角角的地方。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/catcherszones.gif Conger’s pretty strong everywhere, and in particular low in and beyond the zone. He’s able to steal high strikes, as well, and he’s excellent on the horizontal edges. Four .gifs, now, of called strikes in different areas. By selecting strikes, I essentially selected for Conger presumably showing good technique, but despite that bias, you can admire his technique anyway. Conger的接补挺广角的。以下四个gif是他在好球带不同方向所接出来的好球。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-1.gif http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-2.gif http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-3.gif http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/CongerCatch-4.gif You can teach catchers to get better, and the Astros have taught Jason Castro to get better, but everyone has an ability ceiling. Conger’s is higher than most, because he’s able to remain just so incredibly quiet and confident. The one I like most above is the second one. Conger had a target down, around the knees. He caught the pitch above Dustin Ackley‘s belt, but from watching the .gif, you’d never really guess that the pitcher missed to the opposite part of the zone. Conger read how Wade LeBlanc was likely to miss, so he prepared before the ball had even arrived. The target was missed by something like two feet, and Conger couldn’t possibly have received it any better. 接捕是可以教的，太空人就让Jason Castro进步了。不过每个人在这方面都有天花板， Conger的天花板就是比别人高，因为他有办法这样不着痕迹地又充满自信地接捕。我最 喜欢第二个图，他一开始设定的位置比较低，最後接到的位置比Ackley的皮带还高，不 过从图片看不出来投手投得其实离捕手要的地方差很多。Conger判断出LeBlanc大概会 投得多歪，才能在球进垒之前就做好准备。这一球最後进垒的地方跟Conger要的地方距 离大概两英尺，Conger这球接得实在很棒。 If you believe in the value of pitch-framing, you believe in the value of Hank Conger. If any team in baseball believes in the value of pitch-framing, it stands to reason it would be the Astros. So they picked up a 26-year-old with three more years of team control, and his strength isn’t the kind of thing that gets rewarded handsomely through arbitration. So now the team has options, as they figure out how to proceed with Jason Castro, and if Conger remains as a backup, he’ll be okay with that. If he gets an expanded role, he ’ll be okay with that, and while Conger’s framing compares well to Jose Molina’s, Conger’s also younger, with greater offensive potential. Conger seems like a pretty good catcher overall, because of one particularly strong strength, and it’s not often you can get a pretty good catcher for a worse catcher and a back-of-the-rotation project. 如果相信接捕的价值，就会相信Conger的价值。太空人就是这样的球队，所以他们挑了 一个他们还可以控制三年的选手，而且他优秀的接补能力也不会让他在薪资仲裁有什麽 优势。总之现在太空人有更大的弹性，他们可以思考要怎麽处置Jason Castro。如果要 Conger继续当替补，他也OK，如果要给Conger更大的责任，那他也可以胜任。Conger的 接捕堪可比拟Jose Molina，而且打击潜力比摸二哥还高，整体来说似乎是不错的捕手。 要用一个没那麽好的捕手和一个轮值後段的未完成品来换来一个好捕手不是很容易啊。 Not that this is a blockbuster or a rip-off or anything. The Angels might be fond of Perez. Chris Iannetta just ran a 126 wRC+. Nick Tropeano has had success in Triple-A, and everyone likes his changeup. Pitchers with underwhelming fastballs but good changeups can end up underrated prospects, and Tropeano could start for the Angels for the league minimum. That’s valuable, especially for a team with so much big money already committed. The Angels are looking to do certain things on a budget. 也不是说太空人抢很大啦。Iannetta的wRC+只有126的情况下，天使或许会喜欢Perez。 Tropeano在AAA表现不错，而且变速球人见人爱。速球普普但是变速球不错的投手有可能 是被低估的新秀，Tropeano有机会加入MLB轮值，而且只要最低薪。以天使的薪资结构已 经有点卡住的情况之下，这样合乎预算的投资是有其价值的。 So from the Angels’ side, you can understand it well enough. From the Astros ’ side, you can understand it even more. Because of Mike Fast, we all got to learn about the amazing hidden value of Jose Molina. The Astros just picked up their own younger version. 所以站在天使的角度，不难理解这个交易；站在太空人的角度就更清楚了。因为有Mike Fast的研究，我们都了解了Jose Molina的隐藏价值，而现在太空人得到了他们专属的， 而且更年轻版本的摸二哥了。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 61.223.65.18 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1415985970.A.D13.html ※ 编辑: kelpiejo (61.223.65.18), 11/15/2014 01:38:30

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: testu (36.228.131.34), 11/19/2014 00:23:41