http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/5/164733/9984 今年国联中区会有两个菜鸟先发捕手 另外两个中区的菜鸟死对头Rasmus和Bruce还在卡位置　 他们有机会去竞争国联的新人王 在同一个分区同样的守备位置 被比较的机会会很多 两个捕手的型态是不太相同的 一个是重武装带灵巧 另一个是灵巧带破坏力 Background and Intangibles Towles: J.R. Towles was drafted in the 20th round in 2004, out of North Central Texas Junior College by the Astros. He hit just .243 in his pro debut in the Appy League, but a .346/.436/.549 outburst in the Sally League in '05 drew notice, granted he was limited to 45 games by injury. Towles has remained a very effective hitter throughout the minors, though nagging injuries have slowed his defensive progress. He hit great in the majors late last year and is expected to be the starting catcher this spring for Houston. Scouts like his leadership skills. Towles是04年20轮，从North Central Texas Junior College被太空人选上． 　他在Appy League的新人年只打出.243的成绩，但是他05年在Sally League爆发 　尽管他因为受伤只打了45场比赛，.346/.436/.549的成绩开始让人注意到他． 　Towles在小联盟一直都维持是个相当有效率的打者，不过恼人的小伤一直在延 　迟他防守的进步．　他去年底在大联盟的表现很棒，今年春天会是太空人的先发 　捕手．　球探很欣赏他的领导能力． Soto: Soto was drafted in the 11th round in 2001, out of high school in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico by the Cubs. He quickly drew notice as a solid defender with an adequate bat, reaching Triple-A in 2005 at age 22. Regarded as a future backup, he had a stupendous and surprising 2007 season, hitting .353/.424/.652 in Triple-A and .389/.433/.667 in the majors, thrusting him up the prospect lists. He is expected to be Chicago's starting catcher this spring. Scouts like his leadership skills. 　Soto是01年11轮，从Rio Piedras High School被小熊选上．　他很快的以他优 　秀的防守和不错的打击引起注意，05年就以22岁的年龄登上3A．　被视为未来补 　手答案的他在07年有个让人惊艳的球季，3A - .353/.424/.652； MLB - .389/. 433/.667，在prospect的排名大大翻升．　他预期是小熊今年春天的先发捕手． 　球探很欣赏他的领导能力． Advantage: Neither player was a hot pick when drafted, and although the paths each has taken to get where they are now have been quite different, both are well-regarded as field leaders. Looks even to me, if different. 　两个人都不是前段顺位，尽管两个人的用不同的成长路线走到到现在的位置，他们 　都被视为优秀的场上领导者．　在我看来两个人打平． Physicality, Health, and Tools Towles: Towles was born February 11, 1984. A right-handed hitter and thrower, he is listed at 6-2, 190 pounds. An excellent athlete, he is wiry strong and has much more speed than the average catcher. On defense, he features a strong arm and tons of mobility, but needs additional polish with his throwing mechanics. With the bat, he has the bat speed to hit for a high batting average with moderate power, along with decent though unspectacular plate discipline. Injuries have been a factor: finder and hand injuries cost him substantial playing time in 2005 and 2006, and some scouts are concerned that his wiry frame may not hold up to a long grind particularly well. 　 　Towles生於1984/02/11．　右投右打，资料上是身高6-2，体重190磅．　他有杰出的 　运动能力，瘦但是结实，他的速度远优於捕手平均．　防守上，他有强壮的手臂和灵 　巧的移动，但是他传球的动作还需要磨练．　打击方面，他的挥棒速度让他能维持高 　打击率伴随不错的长打能力，本垒板纪律则是略优於平均．　受伤可能是会影响他的 　因素之一，他的手伤让他损失了05和06年不少成长的时间．　一些球探担心他偏瘦的 　体型可能让他没办法长期负担捕手这个辛苦的位置． Soto: Soto was born January 20, 1983. A right-handed hitter and thrower, he is listed at 6-1, 200 pounds. He weight as much as 230 pounds in the past, but went on a fierce workout and fitness program last spring with excellent results. Even when he was heavier, he was a good athlete, but losing the pounds has increased his quickness both offensively and defensively. He has a strong arm and is fine all-around with the glove. With the bat his plate discipline has always been good and his strikeout rate moderate, and the addition of a touch more loft to his swing last year, and more muscle, enabled him to crush more balls. He has had some nagging injuries but nothing particularly serious. 　Soto生於1983/01/20．　右投右打，资料上是身高6-1，体重200磅． 他的体重过去 　有230磅的纪录，不过去年春训的健身减肥计画有很好的成效．　即使他之前胖的时 　候，他的运动能力还是相当优秀，但是减些体重对他的打击和防守速度都有很大的 　帮助．　他的臂力很好，防守非常全面．　打击方面，的本垒板纪律相当好，并且 　维持着不错的三振率，加上他强壮的肌力，能够打出更多的全垒打．　他有些小的伤 　病纪录，但是都不是很严重． Advantage: Again, rather different but on balance close overall. Towles is the superior athlete, but Soto has been more durable. Soto has more current defensive polish, but Towles is improving. Soto had the outstanding 2007 season, but Towles has hit at every level every year since rookie ball, not just last year. My instinct here is that Soto is the safer bet in the short run, but that Towles has a higher upside, but also higher risk. 　再一次虽然有些微不同但是整体来看又是很接近．　Towles有比较优秀的运动能力， 　但是Soto比较持久．　Soto目前的防守比较成熟，但是Towles也在成长．　Soto有相 　当成功的07年，但是Towles从菜鸟联盟後在每年每个层级都打很好．　我的直觉告诉 　我Soto在短期来说会是比较好的赌注，但是Towles有比较高的潜力，但也伴随较高的 　风险． Performance and Polish Towles: Towles is a career .301/.395/.471 hitter at the minor league level, including .324/.425/.551 last year in the Texas League. Scouts say he hasn't fully tapped into his power yet, and that he needs additional polish on both offense and defense. 　Towles小联盟的生涯成绩是.301/.395/.471，包括去年在Texas League.324/.425/ .551的成绩．　球探表示他还没有完全展现出他的长打潜力，他在打击和防守上都 　还需要磨练． Soto: Soto is a career .280/.360/.426 hitter at the minor league level. Even before his 2007 outburst he showed a solid OBP and occasional power spikes. The general consensus among Pacific Coast League observers I spoke with last year was that the power increase last year was legitimate, but that the batting average would drop against big-league pitching. He is more polished than Towles at this point both offensively and defensively. 　Soto小联盟的生涯成绩是.280/.360/.426．　在他07完全爆发之前，他就有很棒的上 　垒率加上偶尔加菜的长打能力．　Pacific Coast League大部分的球探对他去年长打 　的爆发并不讶异．　但是当他面对大联盟的投手时，打击率会再下修．　他目前不论 　打击上还是防守上都比Towles还要成熟． Advantage: An odd assessment: Towles has been more consistently productive through the minors, but is the also the guy considered to have less polish right now. Given his greater Triple-A experience I think you have to go with Soto here. 很诡异的评语，Towlesａｕ在小联盟表现的要比Soto要稳定的多，但是他却被认为 　比较不成熟．　因为Soto在3A有较多的经验，这部分还是比较好的． Projection Towles: Towles projects as a starting catcher at the major league level, capable of hitting .280-.300, higher than that in his best years, with better speed than most catchers and solid defense, once he settles in and gets some experience. PECOTA comps include non-catches such as Raul Ibanez, Corey Hart, and Jeff Cirillo, plus catchers such as A.J. Hinch and Eli Marrero. Upside VORP 111.1. It kind of looks like PECOTA is confused by Towles' profile somewhat and I think it underestimates what he is capable of in the long run. 　Towles预计是今年大联盟的先发捕手，能够打出280-300的打击率，在他的生涯年会 　比这个数字还要高，当他多些经验并且成熟後，他会是个优秀的防守者加上比其 　他捕手快的速度．　PECOTA的类比包括了一些不是捕手的球员，像是Raul Ibanez 　Corey Hart和Jeff Cirillo．　捕手则是A.J. Hinch和Eli Marrero．　乐观的VORP 　是111.1．　PECOTA目前对Towles的过去纪录类比还不是很明确，我认为对他长期的 　发展这部分他有被低估． Soto: Soto projects as a starting catcher at the major league level, capable of hitting .260-.280 with a high on-base percentage, good power, and solid defense. PECOTA comps include Charles Johnson, Ramon Hernandez, Todd Zeile, and Mike Macfarlane, but also Derek Parks and Tim Laudner. Upside VORP 155.3. 　Soto预计是今年大联盟的先发捕手，能够打出260-280的打击率，伴随高上垒率；不 　错的长打和优秀的防守．　PECOTA的类比包括Charles Johnson，Ramon Hernandez， 　Todd Zeile，Mike Macfarlane，Derek Parks和Tim Laudner．　乐观的VORP预测是 　155.3． Advantage: Both should be very good, even excellent, but the shape of that goodness will differ. I agree that Soto probably won't be hitting .350 in the majors, but even at .260-.280 with walks and power he will be very good. Towles won't draw as many walks and I doubt he'll show as much power in the short run, but has a better chance to hit .300 or better down the line, and the power should increase as he matures. 　两个都很好，甚至是超好，但是两个的优点会是不同的．　我相信Soto没办法打出 350的打击率，即使是260-280加上很多保送已经很好了．　Towles不会选出那麽多 　保送，短期内也不会有暴力的长打，但是他有比较高的机会达到300打击率甚至未 　来会更好．　当成熟後，他的长打应该会再进化． Summary You can see why I picked this one for a smackdown. I regard Soto as the better bet for success this year, and a "safer" pick overall. But Towles has some really terrific upside given his athleticism. Overall I rate Soto a bit higher, but it's close considering how different the two player are. 　很容易理解为什麽把他们绑在一起谈．　我认为Soto今年会有比较好的表现，他也 　是比较保险的赌注．　但是Towles因为杰出的运动能力有很多更好的发展．　整体 　来看，我对Soto评价稍微高一些，但两个很接近，因为要考量他们的型态是完全不 　同的． --

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