※ 引述《joy0205 (joy0205)》之铭言： : 随着世界盃的到来 : 世界上重量级的金融公司其实也会应景的 : 做一些与足球相关的经济研究报告 : 供内部以及投资人做参考 : 藉工作之便我姊拿到了一份高盛证券(Goldman Sachs)所做的研究报告 : 标题叫做: The World Cup and Economics 2006 : 看了一下觉得内容很丰富 但是却不会让人有财经用字过多 : 看的眼花撩乱硬梆梆的感觉 : 真的是很佩服这些整理研究报告的人... 卫报也提到这篇报告 http://football.guardian.co.uk/worldcup2006/story/0,,1770765,00.html 文尾的有机会夺得这届世界盃的各国排名是 1 Brazil: 12.4% 2 England: 8.6% 3 Spain: 8.3% . France: 8.3% 5 Holland: 8.0% 6 Argentina: 7.4% 7 Portugal: 5.8% 8 Germany: 5.5% 9 Italy: 5.3% 10 Czech Republic: 5.0% ......略.... 31 Angola: 0.3% 32 Trinidad & Tobago: 0.2% 另外这里也提及一些，虽然不知道出处为何 http://tinyurl.com/ou2bb Goldman Sachs adds to England football gloom Writted By: David Owen, London Goldman Sachs has added to the growing sense of despondency engulfing England football supporters in the past week by advising clients against backing England to win the World Cup. The US investment bank, producing a 50-plus page report on the competition and economics, declared that the likely loss of striker Wayne Rooney has all but ended England's chances of winning the tournament in Germany next month. The report on the World Cup and economics gives three reasons why it "very much" doubts England will win the 32-team tournament. First, Wayne Rooney, even if he does recover from injury may be let down by his temperament. Second, there is only one natural left-footed player in England's first-choice team. And third, coach Sven-Go"ran Eriksson's men face a tough draw, once they get beyond their "fairly straightforward" preliminary group. 英格兰第一个没有鲁尼，第二只有一个惯用左脚的球员在英格兰先发名单上（Ashley? 还是Downing？），第三就是虽然英格兰这组较好打，但是晋级到淘汰赛後遇上的对 手就不简单了。 The report also argues that, at 6-1 at time of going to press, England represents "an expensive investment", although odds have since drifted, with Ladbrokes on Friday quoting England at 8-1 joint fourth favourite. The bank concurs with bookmakers in making Brazil "undisputed favourite" to win the competition. 高盛与Ladbroker都认为巴西是夺冠大热门。 Though highly respected for its economic forecasting, the bank has a mixed record in football, having correctly predicted three of the four semi-finalists in 1998, but none in 2002. This time, it thinks the final four may be Brazil, Germany, Italy and either England or Argentina. "If Wayne Rooney had been fit and healthy, the chances of England sneaking in ahead of Argentina looked good," writes Jim O'Neill, Goldman's head of global economic research, and mastermind of the four-yearly exercise asks whether there is any link between football and economics. He concludes: "While it is difficult to see a clear correlation between football success and economic success on a global basis, on a regional basis, evidence of a relationship can be found. In Europe, the largest economies appear generally to support the most successful national teams. In addition, the top club teams tend to come from the largest nations - and often the largest, most prosperous cities." 在欧洲，国家经济规模越大，其国家队成功夺冠世界盃的机会就越大，如果是职足， 大城市的球会成功的机会也大。 The report's star-studded line-up includes contributions by Joschka Fischer, former German foreign minister, and by Gordon Brown, UK chancellor of the exchequer. --

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