※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板] 作者: Westmoreland (Five Tools/Seven Skills) 看板: MLB 标题: Re: [情报] Division Preview - AL West 时间: Wed Feb 24 20:41:14 2010 : Los Angeles Angels: 76-86 projected 2010 record : Why They Might Win: While they have lost Lackey, they still have a very : formidable rotation with Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, : Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro. Mike Scioscia is among the game's best : managers; his teams always outperform the sum of their parts. : Why They Might Not Win: Figgins is a big loss. He was excellent both as : a table-setter at the top of the batting order and with the glove at : third base. Counting on Brian Fuentes and Fernando Rodney to be the : primary late-inning relievers just seems to be asking for trouble. : Player Who Could Surprise: Brandon Wood, whom it seems has been a : prospect since Jim Fregosi was the Angels' star, will finally get his : chance at the major league level. PECOTA projects Wood to hit 25 home : runs as Figgins' replacement. : Player Who Could Disappoint: Rodney converted 37 of 38 save : opportunities for Detroit last season, but PECOTA sees him with a 4.34 : ERA this year, a high figure for a guy who was paid a lot of money on : the free-agent market to pitch in high-leverage situations. Year PECOTA 预测 实际胜场 差距 ------------------------------------------------ 2010 76 ？ ？ 2009 84 97 -13 2008 87 100 -13 2007 86 94 -8 2006 81 89 -8 2005 83 95 -12 2004 82 92 -10 ------------------------------------------------ Average 84 95 -11 按经验法则，今年会介於 84～89 ？ 为甚麽每年的预测都低估这麽多，Bill James 的解读： The most efficient team in baseball is usually the Los Angeles Angels—anyway it was in 2009, and it was in 2008, and it has been in other years. The Angels do little things so well that they are consistently able to grind five or ten more wins a year out of their team than what one would think was available. We don't really understand how they do this, to be frank, but since they do it every year, we know it's not luck. Saying that they "do the little things well" is just a way of covering for the fact that we don't actually know how they do it. If it wasn't for the Angels, we might think it was all luck. There are a couple of parts of the Angels' success that we do understand. For one thing, they run the bases extremely well. They picked up about 96 bases last year, or about 20 runs, just by running the bases better than the average team. Twenty-two of those bases are "stolen base gain," but 74 of them are bases gained by things like going first-to-third on a single or tagging up and advancing. That helps a lot. The Angels in 2009 had 221 "Manufactured Runs," by far the most of any major league team. Second, they usually have a good bullpen, which means that they can put a good pitcher on the mound when the game is close. Even in 2009, when they didn't have a really good bullpen, they also didn't have a really bad bullpen. Those things help to make a team "efficient," as we are using the term. 去年天使的一垒有人而打者击出一垒安打的次数是 367 次 其中 128 次一垒跑者推进到三垒，比例高达 35%，远比其他球队高 大联盟只有三个球员在这种情形之下，进到三垒的比例 超过 50% (取跑垒机会 50 次以上)： 就是 Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins 和 Erick Aybar 善於打「小球」，长打火力又很好，或许是让预测极端 失准的原因，而 PECOTA 也没公开算法，这样解释或许合理 --

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