作者Belladonaa ()
看板Angels
标题[情报] Athlon Baseball 2009 Angels Preview
时间Sun Feb 15 19:21:16 2009
Athlon Baseball 2009 Los Angeles Angels Preview
After years of searching for a middle-of-the order bat, the Angels landed Mark
Teixeira from the Braves near the 2008 trade deadline. But their long-term plan
was thwarted by stiff competition for Teixeira on the free agent market over
the winter and the New York Yankees took the prize. The Angels are back to
contending behind stout pitching and reliable fielding. They’re an aging
group, and even modest improvement among their AL West rivals would make
reaching the playoffs a bit more difficult.
Rotation
With departures from the relief corps and a continual quest for power, the
Angels rely more and more heavily on their starting pitching. John Lackey has
been the Angels’ ace for several years with little acclaim, but his
consistency earned him a spot on the USA team in the World Baseball Classic.
That’s how good he is. Behind Lackey, Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana offer a
solid middle-of-the-rotation punch, though each trailed off slightly after
torrid starts last year. Jered Weaver, who struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00
last year, appears to be losing some of the bounce he got from a deceptive
delivery. Hitters appear to be figuring him out. The issue this spring will be
sorting through some candidates for the fifth starter spot. Kelvim Escobar had
shoulder surgery last year and isn’t expected back until mid-July. Meanwhile,
the Angels let 14-game winner Jon Garland leave via free agency, not a bad move
given his inflated price tag. Two candidates for the final spot are Dustin
Moseley, who gave the Angels 10 up-and-down starts last year, and Nick
Adenhart, the team’s top pitching prospect.
Bullpen
Letting Teixeira go may have helped the club continue the stifling relief that
has characterized the Mike Scioscia era. The Angels used part of the money that
would have gone to Teixeira to sign free agent closer Brian Fuentes to a
two-year, $17.5-million deal. Getting Fuentes allows the Angels to continue
using Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo in setup roles. Neither one looked like a
sure bet as a closer. Shields has struggled in recent seasons, and Arredondo
appears to be a year or two away from taking on the ninth inning consistently.
It’s not easy to improve on Francisco Rodriguez’s record-breaking 2008, but
few in the organization believed that his violent delivery and apparent decline
in velocity merited a high-priced, long-term deal, so he was allowed to sign
with the Mets.
Middle infield
Had Erick Aybar gotten a fateful squeeze bunt down against the Red Sox last
October, it would have been a far more comfortable winter for Scioscia. Then
again, Scioscia couldn’t complain with the production he got from the
slap-hitting shortstop after Maicer Izturis went down with an injury. Aybar
plays scintillating defense, but his double-play partner continues to try to
catch up. Howie Kendrick’s main strength is his bat. His range and reliability
at second base give Angels pitchers plenty of reason to fret. He might be the
one Angel whose improvement could boost the offense to new heights. Kendrick
was a line drive machine all the way through the minors and, when healthy, he
has shown signs of punishing major league pitchers. He missed 24 games with a
strained hamstring near the end of last season, and his absence made the lineup
look awfully thin. Izturis could challenge Aybar for the starting shortstop
job. If he doesn’t get it, he will again provide an above-average option off
the bench at either position.
Corners
Now playing first base for your World Series-hopeful Angels … Kendry Morales?
When the Angels lost Teixeira to free agency, it exposed their lack of depth at
the position. To acquire Teixeira from the Braves last summer, they had to part
with Casey Kotchman, who seemingly was born to bat .300 in the major leagues.
The Angels signed Morales, a Cuban defector, because of his potent
switch-hitting ability, but he struggled in 27 games after spending the
majority of last year at Triple-A. The other option, Robb Quinlan, is a
reliable contact hitter, but he doesn’t exactly inspire patrons to gobble up
tickets. It’s not as if the Angels get much thunder from the other corner
either, though Chone Figgins has emerged as one of the best speed men in the
majors, particularly as he has shown a more patient approach at the plate.
Scioscia always has the option of moving Figgins to another position — or
making him an everyday utility man — but why would he? One reason to move
Figgins would be a strong spring by 24-year-old slugging prospect Brandon Wood.
Then again, Wood struck out 43 times in 150 major league at-bats last year, so
don’t hold your breath.
Outfield
When a man bats .303, smashes 27 home runs and drives in 91 runs, it’s a bit
premature to call him in decline. But Vladimir Guerrero, 33, appears to be
showing the initial signs of a downward trend. His knees have given him
problems three seasons in a row and his defense and baserunning have become
hold-your-breath time. Still, if Guerrero leaves after 2009 (and he is a free
agent) he will be remembered as one of the greatest Angels of all time. The
question is, has the team done enough to make him the centerpiece of a
championship club? Left fielder Juan Rivera must reward the Angels’ loyalty by
emerging as an offensive force. The team allowed stalwart Garret Anderson to
leave because it believes in Rivera’s ability. Torii Hunter had a decent first
season in Anaheim, though his 108 strikeouts were a bit much. Gary Matthews Jr.
(.242, 95 strikeouts) could go from forgotten man to starter as Guerrero
continues to slide toward full-time designated hitter duty.
Catching
If Mike Napoli could ever figure out a way to avoid his yearly tailspins, he
could be one of the best slugging catchers in the AL. Napoli managed to slam 20
home runs in just 227 at-bats, a scintillating pace. The fact he also struck
out 70 times is somewhat offset because he is one of the few Angels willing to
take a walk (35). If nothing else, Jeff Mathis appears to have saved a career
that was teetering a couple of years ago after his long fall from top prospect
status. Mathis provides solid guidance to Angels pitchers, though he rarely
scares opposing hurlers. He batted .194 in 283 at-bats.
DH/Bench
Guerrero served as the Angels’ designated hitter 44 times last season and
figures to see a bunch of at-bats in that role once again. Matthews Jr. isn’t
happy as a reserve and it showed in his performance. He will get at-bats in the
outfield when Guerrero is the DH. Reggie Willits was the toast of the AL West
two seasons ago, but he struggled after being demoted last year, batting just
.194 in limited chances with the Angels. The Angels have one of the better
middle-infield reserves in Izturis, who figures to get at least 350 at-bats.
They also have a reliable bat off the bench in Quinlan, but they otherwise are
spread a bit thin.
Management
Scioscia, who signed an extension in early January, has power few Angels
managers have enjoyed, and he appears to enjoy nice synergy with GM Tony
Reagins and owner Arte Moreno. Angels fans applauded Reagins and Moreno for
acquiring Teixeira last summer, but the cost could now come due.
Final analysis
Count on the Angels to stay at or near the top of the AL West, but not because
they will win another 100 games. This team could take a big step back, opening
the door to AL West teams that had little chance of keeping up last season.
Beyond the Boxscore
Still L.A. Yes, they’re still the Los Angeles Angels though they play 30 miles
south of downtown L.A. In December, the 4th District Court of Appeal ruled
against the city of Anaheim, which sued to overturn the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim name. Owner Arte Moreno changed the team’s name three years ago for
marketing reasons. He left in “of Anaheim,” to adhere to his lease agreement
with the city of Anaheim.
In the middle of things Shortstop Erick Aybar had a busy winter back home. He
touched off an ugly brawl in a Dominican winter league game when he charged
pitcher Julio de Paula with his bat after being hit by a pitch. Three days
later, he hit for the cycle.
Offseason struggles Things were more grim for infield prospect Brandon Wood in
the Dominican. He was kicked off Estrellas for poor performance. Wood batted
.167 and struck out 16 times in 48 at-bats over 13 games.
Representing his country John Lackey was a bit miffed not to be invited to
pitch for Team USA in the inaugural World Baseball Classic, so he gave a quick
“Yes,” when asked if he would participate this spring. “I’m real pumped
about it,” Lackey told mlb.com.
New look Want an indication of how quickly rosters turn over in modern
baseball? Assuming Garret Anderson does not re-sign in Anaheim, the Angels have
three players (Chone Figgins, Scot Shields and John Lackey) left from the 2002
world champions.
Versatile arm Kelvim Escobar has always had some of the most dominating stuff
in baseball, but his career has been split between relief and starting.
Assuming he returns from shoulder surgery — he’s not expected back until
after the All-Star break — Escobar could be slotted either in the rotation or
as a flame-throwing setup man.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — A lot of teams let right-handed pitcher Tyler Chatwood
slide down the draft board because they had questions about his size — 5'11",
185 pounds — but the Angels had little to lose with the No. 74 overall pick.
In limited action, Chatwood made the gamble look pretty good. In the Arizona
rookie league, the hard-throwing California native struck out 48 batters in 38
innings and allowed only 25 hits. Because they drafted him out of high school,
the Angels figure to take their time with Chatwood. If he reaches high Class-A
by the end of this season, his career would be right on track.
2007 Top Pick — Jonathan Bachanov, RHP, University (Fla.) High School
Had Tommy John surgery in December 2007 and missed all of last season.
2006 Top Pick — Hank Conger, C, Huntington Beach (Calif.) High School
Hit .303 for Class A Rancho Cucamonga; could make debut in Anaheim in ’09.
2005 Top Pick — Trevor Bell, RHP, Crescenta Valley (Calif.) High School
Had a so-so season in Class A; needs a good season to push his career along.
2004 Top Pick — Jered Weaver, RHP, Long Beach State
Has won 10-plus games each season, but the trajectory on his career is pointing
downward.
2003 Top Pick — Brandon Wood, SS, Horizon (Ariz.) High School
Considered a can’t-miss slugging prospect in 2005, but he hasn’t proven he
can stick.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
RHP Jordan Walden (21)
Only a 12th-round pick in 2006, but he has come on strong, including posting a
5–2 record at Class A Rancho Cucamonga last year. Has a career 2.85 ERA
OF Peter Bourjos (22)
He figures to be at Triple-A Salt Lake this year and is knocking on the door
for when some of the older Angels outfielders move on.
LHP Trevor Reckling (19)
The Angels plucked him out of New Jersey two years ago, and he had a solid
season at Cedar Rapids last season.
RHP Sean O’Sullivan (21)
Hard thrower had a solid season for Rancho Cucamonga and could push for work in
Anaheim by the end of the season.
RHP Kevin Jepsen (24)
Has an opportunity to contribute in Anaheim in 2009 after performing well last
September.
Statistician
5 >> Seasons (of the last seven) the Angels have won 92 or more games.
21 >> Games by which the Angels won the AL West last year.
.622 >> Angels’ winning percentage before the Mark Teixeira trade.
.617 >> Angels’ winning percentage by the end of the season.
.703 >> Combined winning percentage of starters Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and
John Lackey.
16 >> Blown saves (out of 20 opportunities) by Angels relievers not named
Francisco Rodriguez.
10 >> Angels’ rank, out of 14 AL teams, in OPS (on-base plus slugging
percentage).
2 >> Angels’ AL rank in stolen bases, behind Tampa Bay.
108 >> Center fielder Torii Hunter’s strikeout total last year.
50 >> Hunter’s walk total.
Difference Maker
When a player bats .368, .363, .367 and .369 in four straight minor league
seasons, as Howie Kendrick did from 2003-06, you get a pretty good sense he can
hit. That remarkable consistency has yet to show up in the major leagues, but
Kendrick was showing signs of being a stalwart before he re-injured his
hamstring last August. If Kendrick, 25, improves on a .306 batting average and
ups his extra-base hit total from 31, he could give a big bounce to an offense
that has a lot of aging players whose numbers could be on the decline. Kendrick
projects as a prototypical No. 2 hitter, and he could team with Chone Figgins
to give the Angels excellent table-setters for Vladimir Guerrero and Co.
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.65.183
1F:推 tunababy:真是一篇大烂文...呵呵... 02/15 19:56
2F:→ Belladonaa:XD 其实这种只适合非本队球迷看看 已经了解很深的 02/15 20:03
3F:→ Belladonaa:自然得不到甚麽新东西... 02/15 20:03
4F:推 tunababy:其实东西很多是错的... 02/15 20:04
5F:→ Belladonaa:数据吗 还是啥 我只有大略描一下 02/15 20:05
6F:推 tunababy:其实就是看扁... 02/15 20:08
7F:→ tunababy:不过没差啦...被看扁也不是一天两天了.. 02/15 20:09
8F:→ tunababy:要怪只能怪我们年轻球员一直没真的打出来... 02/15 20:09
9F:→ tunababy:不期待多,只希望一个或二个今年能大爆发就好... 02/15 20:10
10F:→ tunababy:就够塞这些人的嘴了... 02/15 20:10
11F:→ Belladonaa:虽然他指出一堆缺点XD 不过前面说拿下分区冠军比去年难 02/15 20:11
12F:→ Belladonaa:应该不是说拿不到...最後他的预测也还是西区第一啦... 02/15 20:11
13F:推 tunababy:我们今年开季比去年还强... 02/15 20:12
14F:→ Belladonaa:我觉得数据头应该发明另一套系统评估Scioscia的球队... 02/15 20:13
15F:→ tunababy:我们的队手比去年呈现更谜一般的战力... 02/15 20:13
16F:→ tunababy:结果我们反而更不被看好... 02/15 20:13
17F:→ tunababy:没办法...希望年轻打者今年能帮我们出口气了... 02/15 20:14
18F:→ Belladonaa:不过去年断断续续跟K-Rod的纪录时 发现版上对去年信心 02/15 20:18
19F:→ Belladonaa:也不强 但球队还是赢了破百.. 02/15 20:18
20F:→ Belladonaa:赢了很多场被骂臭头的比赛 02/15 20:19
21F:推 tunababy:重点还是在打者.... 02/15 20:20
22F:→ tunababy:至於去年信心也没有不强...是赢太多没差了... 02/15 20:21
23F:→ tunababy:Reviera,kendrik,morales只要打出来...napoli唯持水准. 02/15 20:21
24F:→ tunababy:这个球队不会只有西区冠军而已.. 02/15 20:22
25F:推 pasti:是阿 这批球员可是我们农场近10年的精华 02/15 20:23
26F:→ Belladonaa:我印象很深的就是Teixeira打NYY的GS... 02/15 20:23
27F:→ Belladonaa:当时觉得这球队没有弱点 02/15 20:24
28F:推 tunababy:我记得小璜有打一支...铁爷有吗? 02/15 20:24
29F:→ tunababy:我们有一堆该变炮确一直没真的有机会变炮的打者... 02/15 20:25
30F:推 kenny781558:我还记得那局是2出局Edwar自己搞到满垒 被轰GS 02/15 20:25
31F:→ kenny781558:结果那场最後被失误害死... 02/15 20:26
32F:→ tunababy:和一堆有机会变机关枪却不知道在打什麽的打者... 02/15 20:26
33F:→ kenny781558:有人把Kendrick的打击拿来和Rod Carew 相比 02/15 20:27
34F:→ Belladonaa:Rod Carew... 02/15 20:29
35F:推 kenny781558:天屎官网讨论区的人 02/15 20:29
36F:→ kenny781558:天使 02/15 20:29
37F:推 tunababy:看了一下...应该是超不多...或者你直接说加强版的cano... 02/15 20:31
38F:→ tunababy: 差不多 02/15 20:31
39F:推 kenny781558:不过Rod生涯OBP是.393 ... 02/15 20:34
40F:→ Belladonaa:ARK & SLK 是打者还是投手球场? 02/15 20:34
41F:推 tunababy:我期待howie打个avg 0.330 obp0.380 每年15支HR, 50 2B 02/15 20:37
42F:→ tunababy:那就够了.. 02/15 20:37
43F:→ Belladonaa:Pedroia 08的数字XD 02/15 20:39
44F:→ Belladonaa:Kendrick 3A&2A的OPS真的很惊人... 02/15 20:40
45F:推 kenny781558:天使队史也只有大叔在2002年超过50 2B(56) 02/15 20:40
46F:→ kenny781558:我觉得40 2B就很不错了 02/15 20:41
47F:→ kenny781558:HK-47在小联盟根本就是屠杀 XDD 02/15 20:41
48F:推 tunababy:嘿...他在当年holiday的rumors中..rockies评估他在山上 02/15 20:43
49F:→ tunababy:是可以打到60支哩..呵呵... 02/15 20:44
50F:→ tunababy:不过40支也很猛了啦....如果他真的打8棒... 02/15 20:44
51F:→ tunababy:那就太杀了.. 02/15 20:45
52F:推 goopa:HK47有三大缺点...1.容易受伤2.出赛太少3.没有全勤.... 02/15 20:45
53F:→ tunababy:ya..看看今年吧... 02/15 20:45
54F:→ Belladonaa:那Wood的评价为啥高过他? 02/15 20:46
55F:→ Belladonaa:喔 因为SS 02/15 20:48
56F:推 kenny781558:其实我倒还蛮期待古巴人今年的表现 我是算蛮看好他的 02/15 20:51
57F:→ kenny781558:我觉得应该有 .280 .340 .480 15~20HR的成绩 02/15 20:52
58F:推 tunababy:wood 的power也比较好... 02/15 20:52
59F:→ tunababy:kendrick有能力把球打到场内的任何一个位置... 02/15 20:53
60F:→ tunababy:因此2B会多... 02/15 20:53
61F:→ tunababy:不过他的另一个问题是BABIP... 02/15 20:54
62F:→ tunababy:他也是另一种战胜BABIP的典范... 02/15 20:54
63F:→ tunababy:其实这几年看下来,打者要真的站稳... 02/15 20:55
64F:→ tunababy:花三年应该是必要的吧.... 02/15 20:55
65F:推 kenny781558:猴子选手plate discipline普遍不好 包括农场选手也是. 02/15 21:04
66F:→ kenny781558:Boujous应该有成为第一棒的潜力 但选球还是蛮差劲的. 02/15 21:05
67F:→ Belladonaa:刚爬了BA 06 Kendrick真的跟预期差距太大大大了... 02/15 21:11
68F:推 Levi:Howie的三大缺点不是等於同一件事情吗? XD 02/15 21:21
69F:→ Belladonaa:Cano 三大缺点:不选球、爱打第一球、没耐心 02/15 21:26
70F:推 kenny781558:Belladonaa是袜迷喔@@ 02/15 21:29
71F:→ Belladonaa:我是ㄨㄨ 02/15 21:44
72F:推 Anero:我花了时间看完原文 才发现这篇文说了跟没说一样 02/15 21:59
73F:→ Anero:我还期待会有关於今年阵容的精辟分析 02/15 22:00
74F:推 Anero:不过我倒不知道Wood冬联是因为打太烂才被踢出来的 02/15 22:07
75F:→ Belladonaa:复制贴上一篇唱虽文就赚两次优文 囧 02/16 11:13
76F:推 jayin07:boujous ㄅㄐ! 02/18 17:23
77F:→ Levi:我们可以帮原po消掉这两次优文,这对猴子板而言很简单的 02/18 22:14
78F:嘘 TheFaith:那我先开第一炮好了 ㄎㄎ 02/19 00:03
79F:嘘 Levi:我这辈子从来没看过这种要求的 02/19 00:08
80F:嘘 TheFaith:ㄎㄎ 02/19 00:56
81F:→ awhat:XDD 02/19 02:53
82F:嘘 cherubim:这个要求还蛮西斯的 XD 02/22 00:49
83F:嘘 mjhsieh:ㄎ 02/22 08:58