作者sbviruvf (--fengels--)
看板Angels
标题[讨论] Sickles on 讦谯龙
时间Fri Sep 5 22:56:03 2008
Prospect Retro: Howie Kendrick
by John Sickels on Sep 3, 2008 9:54 AM PDT
Howie Kendrick was drafted by the Angels in the 10th round in 2002, out of St.
John's River Community College in Florida. His pro debut was a success:
.318/.368/.408 in the Arizona Rookie League, with 12 steals. He drew just seven
walks, but fanned only 11 times in 157 at-bats. I didn't rate many short-season
players back then, but a similar player now would get something like a "Grade C
with higher potential" rating due to the very low strikeout rate.
好姨是我们2002年第10轮选进来的,在短期 Arizona Rookie League的
157 个打数,三围 .318/.368/.408,盗垒 12 次,7 个保送,但仅
仅吃了 11 次三振。因为极低的三振率,以现在标准来说,Sickles
会把他评为潜力股的 Grade C。
Kendrick moved up to the Pioneer League in 2003, hitting .368/.434/.517 for
Provo. He got attention from scouts for his excellent contact hitting skills,
though doubts were raised about his defense. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004
book, writing that I wasn't sure where he'd fit glove-wise, but that the bat
looked good.
讦谯龙2003进入先锋联盟,三围.368/.434/.517,因为 contact 技巧
很好而受到球探的瞩目。 Sickles 在 2004 的 prospect book 给他等
级 C+,评语是打击佳,但是守备能力未定。
Moved up to Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2004, Kendrick hit .367/.398/.578, which are
terrific numbers anywhere but especially in the Midwest League, not an easy
place to hit. His walk rate remained quite low, but he didn't strike out much
and the production was impossible to ignore. He also improved defensively. I
gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book, rating him as an excellent prospect.
到了低阶 A 的麦子队,在对打者不友善的环境下打出 .367/.398/.578
的亮眼三围。虽然保送率仍然颇低,但三振也不多;此外在守备上也有
所进步。 2005 的 prospect book 评为极佳的 prospect,等级 B+。
Kendrick began 2005 with Rancho Cucamonga in the California League, hitting
.384/.421/.638. Promoted to Double-A at midseason, he continued ripping the
ball without missing a beat at a .342/.382/.579 clip. He stole 25 bases on the
season, and while he walked just 20 times, he also struck out just 62 times in
469 at-bats while hitting 43 doubles and 19 homers. About the only negative was
some problems turning the double play. I gave him a Grade A-, rating him as a
future star and ranking him the number 10 hitting prospect in baseball.
2005年讦谯龙从 high-A 的地震队出发,打出.384/.421/.638。季中升
上 2A 後,棒子丝毫没有降温,继续缴出 .342/.382/.579 的成绩单。
469 个打数中,击出43个二安和19发全垒打;有25次盗垒,只有 20 个
保送和 62 K。唯一的缺点在於双杀守备有些问题。所以 06 的 book 把
他评为打击新秀第 10 名,等级 A- 。
He followed that up by hitting .369/.408/.631 in 69 games of Triple-A in 2006,
then .285/.314/.416 in the majors. He hit .322/.347/.450 in 2007 with the
Angels, then .308/.334/.428 this year. He's a .306/.333/.432 hitter overall in
the majors.
Kendrick hardly ever walks, but his strikeout rate is low and he has an unusual
ability to make hard contact even on pitches most hitters shouldn't swing at.
The biggest difficulty he faces is staying healthy, which is becoming a
persistent problem. If he can avoid major health issues, Kendrick will contend
for batting titles in the coming years. But that's a big IF.
讦谯龙的确很少捡到保送,然而三振率也相当低。即使一般打者根本不会
挥击的球,他也有本事打得相当结实。讦谯龙一直以来健康有些问题,如
果没有重大的伤病,未来几年他将会在角逐打击王头衔之列--但健康与否
就是最大的问题所在。
ps.附一下 BR 讦谯龙的成绩:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kendrho01.shtml
===
我比较好奇的是,好姨在小联盟每季 300 ~ 400 多个 PA 都可以干个
10 几发本,但是为什麽上来以後好像这项能力一直还没表现出来呢...?
我认为以他的能力,每季产个十来二十发应该不成问题的呀.. orz
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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.112.246.30
1F:推 Levi:推这篇 至於长打数字 天使农场的A+和AAA都对打者颇友善 09/05 23:08
2F:→ Levi:所以用那些数字要直接预测10~20发的全垒打是有些不合理 09/05 23:08
3F:→ Levi:从以前我个人就有点好奇以他不算特别高的LD% 要如何长期维持 09/05 23:10
4F:→ Levi:那麽高的打击率 09/05 23:10
5F:→ greengreen42:而且他打太多坏球了限制了把球干远的可能性 09/05 23:11
6F:→ greengreen42:大联盟的坏球没有小柠檬的那麽好打 09/05 23:11
7F:推 JoshBeckeet:推~~我喜欢这小子 09/05 23:14
8F:推 greengreen42:在LD拉不高的情况可以用特别低的三振率来维持高打率 09/05 23:16
9F:→ sbviruvf:谢谢 Levi ㄉㄉ,话是说好姨在 Arkansas的样本少,所以 09/05 23:17
10F:→ sbviruvf:我没注意到 hitter friendly 的联盟影响... 09/05 23:18
11F:→ sbviruvf:绿绿ㄉㄉ,所以说好姨的 LD% 会限制到他的 babip 罗? 09/05 23:23
12F:推 Levi:我的意思是..他打了一大堆grounders,从以前到现在都是如此 09/05 23:24
13F:→ Levi:那些滚地球滚出内野的机率显然比正常情况高 09/05 23:24
14F:→ Levi:打者对於babip有一些控制力,但是他的babip也一直高於平均 09/05 23:26
15F:→ Levi:他的LD%大概都在16%~18%之间 所以这麽高的babip会让人担心 09/05 23:26
16F:→ Levi:如果他是个有20% LD%的家伙 那我就不太担心他了 09/05 23:27
17F:推 LaPorta:某位准hofer的二垒手前几年也是LD%爆低 babip却爆高 09/05 23:30
18F:推 Levi:那位准hofer靠的是熊庹 那是特例啊 09/05 23:40
19F:→ sbviruvf:谢谢各位农委乡亲,大概懂了 XD 09/05 23:40
20F:→ sbviruvf:希望好姨能回来一起进世○○○啦 :p 09/05 23:41
21F:推 Anero:虽然小联盟是对打者友善 但他今年干的炮也太少了吧 09/06 00:56