Why Ben Affleck's DGA Win Matters Even Though He's Not Oscar-Nominated (Analysis) 为何班艾佛列克的导演工会奖获胜对奥斯卡战况有关紧要，即使他未被提名 (分析) 1:16 AM PST 2/3/2013 by Scott Feinberg (原文网址 http://ppt.cc/ZYRL) THR's awards analyst tries to make sense of a night during which directors, animators and art directors all revealed their picks for the best work of 2012. 好莱坞报导分析家试着解读周六夜晚导演、动画工作者与艺术指导者揭露他们选出的 2012最佳作品的意义。 At the beginning, it looked like we were in for an awards season without an Oscar front-runner. At the end, it looks like we couldn't have a much stronger one. 刚开始，看起来我们处於一个没有领跑者的奖季。但最後，看起来像是我们没有一个更强 的领跑者。 On Saturday, Ben Affleck's Argo won the 65th Directors Guild of America Award for best directed feature film. In so doing, it completed a sweep of the top prizes of all of the season's major precursor awards -- it had already won the Critics' Choice Award for best picture (and best director), the Golden Globe Award for motion best picture drama (and best director), the Producers Guild of America Award for best produced picture and the Screen Actors Guild Award for best ensemble -- and it now heads into the final round of Oscar voting, which begins Feb. 8, with undeniable momentum. No film ever has been awarded the top prizes of all of the aforementioned precursor groups -- and only one film, Apollo 13 (1995), has won the top prizes of the PGA, SAG and DGA -- and not won the best picture Oscar. 星期六，小班的亚果出任务赢得了第65届美国导演工会奖的最佳剧情片导演。做到这件事 亚果完成了颁奖季顶级前哨战的横扫--包括影评人选择奖的最佳影片(和最佳导演)，金球 奖的最佳剧情片(和最佳导演)，制片人工会奖的最佳影片制作，演员工会的最佳整体演出 --而亚果现在伴随着无法抵挡的动量迈向最後一轮，二月8日开始的奥斯卡投票。没有任 何片曾经被颁发所有前述的顶级风向球奖项--过去只有一部片，阿波罗13(1995)曾经赢得 PGA，SAG和DGA顶级奖项--却未赢得奥斯卡最佳影片。 The DGA Award win for Affleck also must be read as a tacit rebuke of the Academy's directors branch, which didn't even include him among its five best director Oscar nominees, sparking widespread outrage. (Its 371 members account for only 6 percent of the Academy's entire membership.) The DGA Award is famous for presaging the winner of the best director Oscar on all but six occasions since it first was presented in 1948. Affleck will increase that number to seven -- and the fact that the DGA voted for him, even with the knowledge that he had been snubbed by the Academy, means that recognizing him was more important to DGA members than preserving their stellar prognostication track record. That's quite a statement. (Further good news for Argo: The film directed by the DGA winner has gone on to be named best picture by the Academy on all but 13 occasions in the past 64 years.) 小班的导演工会奖获胜也必定被解读为对影艺学院导演组未将他包含在奥斯卡最佳导演 的五位提名者中引发普遍愤怒的沉默训斥(讦谯)。(导演组有371位成员仅占影艺学院整 体会员6%。)导演工会奖有名在於预示奥斯卡最佳导演的赢家，从1948年开办後只错6次。 小班将增加例外之数到7次--且即使早知道他已经被影艺学院冷落，导演工会仍然投给 他的事实意味着对导演工会成员而言认同他比保留恒星预测跟踪纪录来得重要。这是一 个相当强的声明。(对亚果更进一步的好消息:导演工会奖得主的影片成为影艺学院 的最佳影片在过去64年来只有13次失败)。 [补充说明: 请看上一篇小弟的分析，含全部的例外名单。然而导演工会获奖的导演与影 片分家7部发生在1967年毕业生之前，前7次是DGA获奖者全拿到奥斯卡最佳导演。之後 有68冬之狮(影片导演双败)，85紫色姐妹花 (影片败且导演没提名)，89七月四日诞生 (影片败导演胜)，95阿波罗13 (影片败且导演没提名)，98抢救雷恩大兵(影片败导演胜)， 00李安(影片导演双败，原因应是外语片且Soderbergh支持者集中选票)，拿到最佳导演 却没影片有两例，拿到最佳影片却没导演有72教父和02芝加哥。] The DGA Award outcome not only puts more wind behind Argo's best picture sails, it also fails to clarify the best director Oscar race of which Affleck is not a part. Of the other four DGA nominees -- all of whom had won the DGA Award at least once before, unlike Affleck -- only two are nominated for the best director Oscar: Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) snagged Oscar noms, but Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) were bumped in favor of Michael Haneke (Amour), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild). Had Lee or Spielberg won Saturday, it would have suggested that their film might have the support necessary to challenge Argo for the best picture Oscar. But the fact that neither did leaves that race completely muddled. 导演工会奖的结果不只把更多风向摆在亚果的最佳影片航向上，也拒绝澄清小班缺席的 奥斯卡最佳导演竞逐。在其他四位导演工会提名人--除了小班其他全部过去都至少赢过 一次导演工会奖--只有两位被提名奥斯卡最佳导演:李安(少年Pi的奇幻漂流)与老史(林 肯传)被钉在奥斯卡提名名单上，但是小班，毕娘娘(凌晨密令)和胡伯(悲惨世界)被偏爱 麦可‧汉内克(爱‧慕)，大卫‧欧 罗素(派特的幸福剧本)和班‧谢特林(南方野兽乐园) 的选票撞掉。倘若李安或老史在星期六赢得导演工会奖，这将促成他们的影片在奥斯卡 最佳影片竞逐上可能获得必要的支持以挑战亚果。但事实上两人都没做到，令这个竞逐 仍留下全然的困惑。 Of course, the Oscar race cannot be declared over until the last envelope is opened Feb. 24, so, to one degree or another, the backers of Argo's eight fellow best picture Oscar nominees -- Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty -- will fight on. And there are a few stats that should offer encouragement to the most serious contenders among them: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi, all of which secured picture, director, screenplay and editing nominations, among others: 当然，奥斯卡的竞逐不会宣布终止直到最後的信封在二月24日被打开，亚果的同侪-- 爱‧慕、南方野兽乐园、绝杀令、悲惨世界、少年Pi的奇幻漂流、林肯传、派特的幸福 剧本、凌晨密令--的拥护者或多或少将会持续战斗。并且有些统计数据应该可以提供给 其中最认真的竞逐者鼓励：林肯传、派特的幸福剧本和少年Pi的奇幻漂流，比起其他影 片或有漏缺，这三部都巩固了影片、导演、剧本和影片剪接的提名。 (按：各奖项提名的相关性请见小弟前篇分析) Only one film in the past 80 years -- Driving Miss Daisy (1989) -- ever has won the best picture Oscar without also receiving a best director Oscar nomination. 过去80年只有一部片--温馨接送情(1989)--曾经在导演奖没被提名下赢得最佳影片。 (按:更早则要追溯到第1届和第5届) On both of the two prior occasions on which the DGA Award winner was someone who had not received a best director Oscar nomination -- Spielberg for The Color Purple (1985) and Ron Howard for Apollo 13 (1995) -- that director's film did not go on to win the best picture Oscar. 在导演工会奖得主却未获得奥斯卡最佳导演提名的两个前例--史蒂芬史匹柏的紫色姊妹 花(1985)和朗霍华的阿波罗13(1995)--两部影片都没有赢得奥斯卡最佳影片奖。 Like most past best picture Oscar winners, Lincoln scored more Oscar nominations (12) and has a bigger domestic gross than any of the other best picture nominees ($170 million and counting). 就像多数过去的奥斯卡最佳影片奖得主，林肯传获得了较多的奥斯卡提名(12)并且比 其他任一个最佳影片提名者有更好的北美票房(1.7亿镁且还在累积中)。 And, finally, the second round of Oscar voting doesn't even begin for the better part of a week and will then extend until 5 p.m. PT on Feb. 19, more than two weeks from now. That leaves a lot of time for voters to tire of Argo and/or for one of Argo's principal players to put his or her proverbial foot in his or her mouth and turn voters off from it. For this reason, I'd expect to see a lot more of the Argo folks but hear a lot less from them over the coming weeks. 第二轮的奥斯卡投票不会开始於风向建立的这星期然後将会延续直到二月19日 下午五点(美国西岸时间),距离现在超过两个星期。这留给投票者许多时间厌倦亚果 且/或让某个亚果的主要竞争对手将他或她众所皆知的脚放到他或她的嘴巴(使劲说服) 使得投票者从亚果转向。因此，在即将来临的几周我期待看到很多亚果的支持者但听到 这些人快速流失。 But, at least as of Saturday night, it's Argo's race to lose -- and, to paraphrase Alan Arkin's character in the film, everyone else can just Argo-f---themselves. 但是，至少如同上周六夜晚，这是亚果要输的比赛--并且，仿亚伦‧阿金在片里的脚色 的台词，其他每个人可以说：去你的亚果。 Other important developments from Saturday night: 在上周六夜晚其他重要的发展: Searching for Sugar Man won the DGA Award for best directed documentary over fellow best documentary feature Oscar nominees How to Survive a Plague and The Invisible War; the other two Oscar nominees, the Israeli films Five Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers, were not nominated. Having previously won the PGA Award, among others, Malik Bendjelloul's film must be regarded as the clear favorite to win the Oscar. 导演工会的最佳纪录片导演颁给「糖果人」，胜过同样提名奥斯卡的「如何在瘟疫中存 活」与「隐形战争」；另外两部奥斯卡提名片，以色列的「五个坏掉的相机」和「守门人」 则未被提名。早前已经从其他影片中赢得制片人工会奖，马利克‧班杰罗的影片势必被视 作赢得奥斯卡奖的热门人选。 Wreck-It Ralph, one of this year's best animated feature Oscar nominees, was the big winner at the 40th Annie Awards, claiming five trophies including the two biggest: best animated feature and best director (Rich Moore). Two of its fellow Oscar nominees, Brave and ParaNorman, each claimed two other Annies, whereas the other two Oscar nominees, Frankenweenie and The Pirates! Band of Misfits, went home empty-handed. Presented by the International Animated Film Society, the Annies are not known as one of the more reliable Oscar precursors. But, with these Annie wins plus the PGA and Critics' Choice awards under its belt, it's probably fair to assume that Ralph has a slight edge over Golden Globe winner Brave and Tim Burton's critics' favorite Frankenweenie. 无敌破坏王，今年奥斯卡最佳动画片提名之一，是第40届安妮奖最大赢家，拿了五项奖座 包括两个最大奖：最佳动画片和最佳导演(瑞奇‧摩尔)。两部同时提名奥斯卡的同侪， 勇敢传说和派拉诺曼：灵动小子则各自取得两座其他的安妮奖。然而另两部奥斯卡提名作 品科学怪犬和海贼天团则空手而归。由国际动画协会举办的安妮奖没有如同其他信赖度高 的奥斯卡风向球那样广为人知。但是，随着安妮奖的获胜加上制片人协会奖还有影评人选 择奖在他的腰带上，假设无敌破坏王对金球奖得主勇敢传说和影评人偏好的提姆波顿的科 学怪犬有些许优势大概还算公平。 And, at the 17th Art Directors Guild Awards, the three big winners were Anna Karenina (in the period film category) and Life of Pi (in the fantasy film category) -- both nominees for the best production design Oscar (formerly known as the best art direction Oscar) -- plus the Oscar-snubbed Skyfall (in the contemporary film category). Of the other three Oscar nominees, Les Miserables and Lincoln competed in the period film category and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey competed in the fantasy film category. In 2006, the ADG jumped from two (period or fantasy and contemporary) to the current three categories; in seven of those 10 years, the best art direction Oscar winner won one of those prizes. Karenina previously won the best art direction Critics' Choice Award and probably is the favorite to win the best production design Oscar -- though in six of the past 10 years the Oscar winner was a best picture nominee (probably due in large part to coattails voting), which should give major hope to Life of Pi, in particular, but also perhaps Les Miserables or Lincoln. 此外，第17届艺术指导者工会奖，三大赢家分别是安娜‧卡列尼娜(时代电影类)、少年Pi 的奇幻漂流(奇幻电影类)--这两部同时提名奥斯卡最佳场景设计(先前广为人知的奥斯卡 最佳艺术指导)--加上奥斯卡冷落的007空降危机(现代电影类)。 其他三个奥斯卡提名者， 悲惨世界和林肯传在时代类影片竞逐而哈比人：意外旅程则是在奇幻电影类。在2006， 工会奖从两类(时代或奇幻 与 现代)跳到现在的三类别。在过去10年中的7年，奥斯卡最 佳艺术指导奖赢得工会奖的其中一项。安娜卡列尼娜早先赢得影评人选择奖的最佳艺术 指导而且大概是赢得奥斯卡最佳场景设计的最热门--虽然过去10年有6年奥斯卡得主是 最佳影片提名者(可能绝大部分是是因为燕尾投票效应)，这样尤其应该是少年Pi的奇幻 漂流最有希望，但也有可能是悲惨世界或林肯传。 总结摘要： 1. 按照过去惯例，假如Argo不是导演入围落空，应该是奥斯卡最佳导演和影片得主。 2. 最佳影片的历史数据对Argo不利，对Lincoln有利。三部入围资格完整的影片Lincoln, Silver Lingings Playbook, Life of Pi 还有时间去说服AMPAS投票者意向逆转战局。 3. 最佳导演仍然聚焦在Speilberg和李安身上。目前无法判断谁会赢得最後竞赛。 (今年五部入围导演全部都是文艺片 即使是林肯传也很少大型军事场景) (搞不好BAFTA也会给Ben Affleck和Argo两大奖。Fox可能真的没在推吧?) 4. 最佳纪录长片大概底定了：Sugar Man。 5. 最佳动画片部分，无敌破坏王翻身成功，拿下动画界安妮奖两项最大奖。 (Richard Parker也成功拿下一奖，对於视觉效果奖的竞逐有加分作用) 6. 最佳场景设计热门是安娜卡列尼娜。但因为投票的伴随效应，少年Pi的奇幻漂流 很有希望拿到该奖。林肯也有可能拿到。 7. 目前Pi最可能拿到的有摄影、视觉效果、场景设计，和视效高相关的音效剪辑， 混音机会也很大，配乐应该没有工会奖，金球奖得奖影响不小，否则要看BAFTA得主。 总共六项技术奖有机会，导演奖还在混沌状态，改编剧本奖要等WGA， 影片奖就随缘了。 -- 我宁愿游荡在你身边 做七天的野鬼......跟随你 就算落进最黑暗的地方 我的爱 也不会让我成为永远的孤魂...... --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.66.129.114 ※ 编辑: wentasu 来自: 140.112.79.12 (02/05 11:14) 翻译後半段，总结摘要。 ※ 编辑: wentasu 来自: 140.112.79.12 (02/05 16:12) ※ 编辑: wentasu 来自: 140.112.79.12 (02/05 16:48)